Diplomacy must reflect reality and not be mere attempts at trickery.

"The Syrian army looked poised on Saturday to advance into the Islamic State-held province of Raqqa for the first time since 2014, apparently to pre-empt any move by Saudi Arabia to send ground forces into Syria to fight the jihadist insurgents.'  Reuters

http://www.firstpost.com/world/lavrov-says-syria-ceasefire-more-likely-to-fail-than-succeed-reuters-2625304.html

------------

"If its forces retake Aleppo and seal the Turkish border, Damascus would deal a crushing blow to the insurgents who were on the march until Russia intervened, shoring up Assad's rule and paving the way to the current reversal of rebel fortunes.

Russia has said it will keep bombing Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which in many areas of western Syria fights government forces in close proximity to insurgents deemed moderates by Western states. " Reuters

 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VM09G

******

"... advances continued Friday with Russian warplanes striking multiple locations across Syria, including in the northern countryside of Aleppo in support of a 10-day-old offensive aimed at laying siege to the rebel-held portion of the city of Aleppo.

Residents of the areas of northern Aleppo that have borne the brunt of the bombing campaign expressed dismay that the cease-fire would not come into effect for a week.

“Within a week everything will have been destroyed,” said Mohammed Najjar, a resident of the town of Marae. On Friday, he joined an accelerating exodus of tens of thousands of civilians toward the Turkish border, where they have been blocked by Turkish authorities from entering the country."  Washpost 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/skepticism-greets-syria-truce-deal-on-worries-over-russian-bombing/2016/02/12/74219ec7-389a-4102-a179-aeffb21cd76f_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_syria-915am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

******

“We will turn Iraq into a “graveyard” for Saudi forces if they dare attack the country,” Ahmad al-Assadi said.  South Front

http://southfront.org/iraq-will-be-a-graveyard-for-saudi-forces-ipmu/

-----------

 I seem to recall that IPMU is the largest grouping of Iraqi Shia militia.  So, pilgrims, al-asadi believes the Saudi led juggernaut of Egyptians/Pakistanis/UAE folks (South American and African mercenaries mostly) and other assorted cats and dogs, would motor march up the long roads from NE SA (KKMC?) through altogether Shia inhabited Iraq to assembly areas west and north of Baghdad whence they would sally forth to to eliminate the "murtadoon" (apostates- according to Hojjat al-Islam Kerry).  Well, sayyid al-asadi, don't do anything to discourage the attempt.  I want to see how this would go down.

CNN aired another Frederick Pleitgen segment from Aleppo today.  He was visiting the front line with Syrian Army people.  It was quiet.  They said they thought the war would be over in a few months.  The anchor blondie who introduced the Pleitgen piece said he was reporting from rebel held Aleppo.  {{!!!!}}  The orthographic device {{----}} is hereby adopted to indicate irony.

Finally, the Great Diplomatic Dream Machine is clearly trying to persuade the Syrians/Iranians/Russians/Hizbullah to give up a winning hand through media BS.  Good luck on that!  pl

 

Comments

[Hood Canal Gardner]

Indeed, CNN's hand is always 'out', it's overseas reporting has gone from sloppy to sloppier, as for the Saudi juggernaut's performance in Syrian Superbowl Sunday how many points is Vegas giving?

[hemeantwell]

I think you're being too kind to CNN. My admittedly unscientific sampling of their Syria programming indicates that it's incendiary, steadily trying to generate a sense of humanitarian catastrophe to both justify and goad a foolish attempt to militarily restrict the R+6.

However, if you were to compare themes over time, say the last four months, you'd see that they have caught themselves in a contradiction, since prior to the recognition that the R+6 offensive was meeting with success they would run endless loops of ISIS looking dangerous. Of course, in Orwellian fashion that's all to be forgotten.

[Barish]

Is this Turkey's way of showing the finger, or a prelude to something much more reckless?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-shelling-idUSKCN0VM0Q0

"Turkish military shelled Kurdish militia in Syria: government source

Turkey's military shelled Kurdish militia targets in northern Syria on Saturday, a Turkish government source said, hours after Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned that Ankara would act if it faced a threat from across the border.

The shelling took place after the Kurdish fighters, backed by Russian bombing raids, drove Syrian rebels from a former military air base near the Turkish border.

"The Turkish Armed Forces fired shells at PYD positions in the Azaz area," the source told Reuters, referring to the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), regarded by Ankara as a terrorist organization.

The shelling was retaliation under Turkish military rules of engagement after the PYD and forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad opened fire on Turkish military outposts on the border, a security official told Reuters.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors Syria's war, said the shelling had targeted the air base and a village captured from insurgents by the PYD-backed YPG militia.

A Kurdish official confirmed the shelling of the Menagh base, which he said had been captured by the Kurdish-allied Jaysh al-Thuwwar group rather than the YPG. Both are part of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.

The shelling came amid growing anger in Ankara with U.S. backing for the PYD in its fight against Islamic State militants."

I'll spare you all the dog-and-pony-show masque Mr Davutoğlu put on about "ethnic massacre in Aleppo" which, usually, is more of a forte of western hive-mind speak. It did not really get picked up when the pet insurgents started to get thrown out of northern Latakia province, and I doubt actual decision-making will revolve around that even now.

I read in places that the shelling took place for hours. What are the next steps to be expected from here on out?

[Trey N]

Holy shinola! Has anybody here seen this yet?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-13/turkey-says-massive-escalation-syria-imminent-saudis-set-launch-airstrikes

The Saudis are sending planes to Incirlik, while the Turks are already shelling Kurds at the just-liberated Menagh airfield in NW Syria in the Aleppo area.

Is this just an all-in raise to bolster a bluff -- or are the idiots serious about taking on the R+6 in an all-out invasion of Syria??

Either way, how do the Russians respond? Do they dare shoot down hostile Saudi/NATO planes invading Syrian air space? If so, what does the US/NATO then do? And what will be the response if/when Turkey closes the Straits?

It looks like things are going to get real interesting real quick....

[Jack]

Sir

The "mighty wurlitzer" can propagandize us. But..."persuade" Putin, Assad, Khamenei and Nasrallah? That seems rather delusional. Of course that's all they got now that R+6 has the upper hand.

Sir, do you think Erdogan is crazy enough to send the 2nd Army south? As you noted in the last thread that raises the prospect of a war with Iran and Russia. Once that starts it could easily spiral out of control.

[Mishklji]

"Never interrupt an enemy while he is making a mistake."
Napoleon

[turcopolier]

mishkilji

Who do you have in mind? pl

[cynic]

When the Saudis lost a couple of planes in Yemen, Veterans Today reported that they were of a type only sold to Israel, and were probably piloted by Israelis. Maybe the planes attacking Syria in Saudi livery will really be Israeli. Maybe the 'American' planes that bombed Aleppo were really flown by Israelis.

[turcopolier]

cynic

What BS! You obviously will believe any stupid rumor. pl

[cynic]

So far the Syrians and Russians have kept the initiative. The attempts to stop them seem to be a step behind. By the time the Saudi/Turkish etc forces arrive they may find that the defenders are ready for them.

[aleksandar]

Next phase :Tabaqa Military Airport 24 km south AlTabqah

This quiet advance through the oil rich part of northeastern Hama has positioned the 555th Brigade and their allies from Kataebat Al-Ba’ath (Al-Ba’ath Battalions) and the National Defense Forces (NDF) approximately 50 km away from the Tabaqa Military Airport. For the first time in a long time, the soldiers in eastern Hama are poised to recapture the Tabaqa Military Airport

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-sets-its-sights-on-tabaqa-military-airport-in-al-raqqa/ | Al-Masdar News

[plantman]

Colonel,

My understanding is that Turkish generals have refused to invade without a greenlight from the UN. If that's the case, then maybe this mornings shelling was a provocation designed to get a response from Russia??

Do you think the Obama crew might have a secret agenda here, like getting Erdogan to invade to foment revolution in Ankara to give Erdogan the boot? (Wasn't Saddam lured into Kuwait the same way?)
I'm sure Erdogan is despised in Washington. Maybe this creates a unique opportunity to get rid of him.

Is that too far fetched??

[Mishklji]

Your comment on al-Asadi (don't do anything to discourage the attempt) prompted me to recall Napoleon's maxim.

[mbrenner]

The Russians appear to have anticipated the Turkey intervention, such as it is at this point; it looks like the Defense Ministry's warning two days ago was more than a move to preempt a merely abstract possibility. Their Intelligence is better than ours. That would not be surprising given the record of the CIA & Assoc. If, however, the White House was alerted, their negligence indicates once again what a feckless bunch the President, Carter and Rice are.

[Fred]

Col.,

"Hojjat al-Islam Kerry"

Truly this reinforces my faith in America's diplomatic prowess.

[gemini33]

The great powers and their friends:
'We demand that Russia, Syria, Iran and allies cease and desist from winning this war and taking back their sovereign territory.'

[Babak Makkinejad]

Some incident of shooting of protestors by the soldiers were rumored to be by the Israeli soldiers - that was during the 1978-1979 Iranian Revolution.

Some rumors never die.

[gemini33]

This is an interesting interview with a British journo, Peter Oborne, who spent a week in the government-held side of Aleppo. He said that most people there, Sunnis included, kept asking him why Britain was siding with the terrorists. He was also told a lot of stories about what people went through to get to relatively safe territory. They journo disclaims that he's aware of the atrocities the Assad govt has done, goes to lengths to show he's not an apologist for either side, but says he just wanted to report what he saw and heard.
https://youtu.be/UuGe5IXpVCY

[FB Ali]

I am pretty sure there will not be any Pakistani troops involved in whatever stupidity the Saudis and Gulfies get up to in Syria. Some unfortunate Pakistani ex-servicemen, employed in various security forces in the Gulf (especially Bahrain), may get caught up in the meat-grinder that any such venture is likely to become.

[cynic]

Here's a rumour from someone who may be crazy, but he isn't stupid.

Clif High predicts that this summer the American economy and financial system will incur severe difficulties, whose effects will, in lesser measure, spread to the rest of the world.Civil disorder is predicted to become widespread. A government under strain at home and desperate to raise enough taxes in a hyper inflationary situation, and find the foreign exchange for overseas interventions, may not be able to continue interfering in Syria and elsewhere in so lavish a fashion. That might influence events on the ground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zF6QX1qZ8dg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUBYbF75pjs

[pj]

Slightly OT - Many press reports cited 600 air strikes that prepared the way for the taking of Ramadi from ISIS. Some reports gave a higher number of strikes.

Question - I have seen no reports of civilian casualties. Were there none, was this acase of press self-censorship, or were no press ever allowed near enough to report?

[The Porkchop Express]

This made me laugh, but sadly, once you strip away all the bells and whistles of obtuse, diplomatic language, this basically sums it up.

[kooshy]

True, but at the same time there where rumors by the opposite side ( monarchies) that the newly formed Islamic republic is employing Palestinian and Libyan (Gaddafi) mercenaries to kill Iranian citizens in the streets. Both stories were BS propaganda.

[Chris Chuba]

The Turks have done this on multiple occasions. They have also shelled the SAA. Why not, they got away with air attacks on the Kurds. I am wondering if the Russians are eventually going to send some sort of missile back to take out the artillery. I am not up on all of the military state of the art but I recall hearing that since artillery has a predictable ballistic trajectory that there is a way to use that to calculate the origin of the shooter and to accurately send a missile back to the sender.

[Aka]

sir,
"Finally, the Great Diplomatic Dream Machine is clearly trying to persuade the Syrians/Iranians/Russians/Hizbullah to give up a winning hand through media BS. Good luck on that!"

Doubt these people will fall for it but at least Americans will fall for it. so it is something.