2,000 fewer rebels in Idlib Province

" Syrian rebels have brought at least 2,000 reinforcements through Turkey in the past week to bolster the fight against Kurdish-led militias north of Aleppo, rebel sources said on Thursday.

Turkish forces facilitated the transfer from one front to another over several nights, covertly escorting rebels as they exited Syria's Idlib governorate, traveled four hours across Turkey, and re-entered Syria to support the embattled rebel stronghold of Azaz, the sources said.

"We have been allowed to move everything from light weapons to heavy equipment, mortars and missiles and our tanks," Abu Issa, a commander in the Levant Front, the rebel group that runs the border crossing of Bab al-Salama, told Reuters, giving his alias and talking on condition of anonymity."  NY Times

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Before this transfer of rebels to Azaz, there were only a limited number of rebels (unicorns and jihadis) in Idlib province between the R+6 forces at Aleppo, as well as farther south astride the Damascus highway (the M5) and the R+6 forces in east Lattakia Province.

The Turks have  now cooperated with the Idlib rebels in moving 2,000 fighters from Idlib Province to the Azaz pocket north of the R+6  force that obstructs movement of rebel supplies and forces from Turkey south into Aleppo Province.

The 2,000 moved into Turkey's Hatay Province through a normal border crossing post and then their convoys were escorted north and then east so that they could re-enter Syria in the Azaz Pocket. 

Good!  The Turks' role is fully transparent and there are many fewer rebels (mostly jihadis) in what will be seen in history as the Idlb Pocket as the situation progresses.  The effectiveness seen thus far in the over all campaign planning demonstrates the effect of the high quality schooling that Russian officers have been receiving in their service schools as well as experience of the kind gained in the 2nd Chechen War.

I would think that for the present support to the YPG Kurds fighting around Azaz will be limited to the continuation of the Russian air defense umbrella to keep the Turkish air force out of the fight and provision of as much materiel support as can be mustered.  The Azaz Pocket can await elimination until other phases of the over all plan are finished.

For the moment the action farther east of the R+6 forces in moving to take Tabqa air base and in so doing to cut IS off from re-supply, reinforcement and oil sales in Turkey is a critical, possibly decisive move against IS in Syria.  The YPG Kurds have already closed the route to Turkey east of Lake Assad.  Closure of the two routes to the northwest would probably force IS back into Iraq because of a lack of communications and re-supply routes.   A good deal of care will be taken I would think to guard against IS counter-attacks to try to break the interruption in their LOCs, but R+6 total air supremacy over desert country should be able to deal with that problem. 

The present fighting in the city of Aleppo itself is, IMO, more of a distraction than anything else.  The city will fall of its own weight if it is completely isolated for an extended period.   If the government is wise it will allow humanitarian relief of the rebel occupied parts of the city while encouraging defections and evacuation of remaining rebel forces.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/02/18/world/middleeast/18reuters-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo.html?ref=world

Comments

[JohnsonR]

The Russian intervention seemingly changed everything - air support obviously, but also new equipment, weapons resupply and refurbishment, maintenance, training, recon assets (drones etc) and intel.....

But probably the biggest immediate impact after the direct CAS was turning morale around, which is usually underestimated in its impact, but it makes all the difference if you want people to risk their lives for you.

No hope of victory = why risk anything for a lost cause. The Russians gave the Syrian army back hope of victory, which was all but gone by last September.

[rjj]

click the "+" 2 times to zoom in, then look around. In order to minimize screen clutter the numbers are pale gray and there are not a lot of them. There is one right below the top of the curve.

Thirdeye and JJackson have already provided, for which THANK YOU.

By way of 3rdI's Russian site linked below: in the 00s pages/sites that realized the potential of the web were still rare. Every time I found one that was feature-rich, functional AND ALSO beautiful, the designers were Russian. I thought they might be from a single or connected source(s), so I wrote and asked - they were not. For a while wondered why Russians seemed to be so damn good at so many things - {{ but then went back to reading up on self-esteem.}}

[Serge]

Babak was referring to the depredations of the Benu Hilal during the Fatimid period. You were referring to the original promulgators of Islam

[Marow]

Name one achievement of Persia pre-Islam ?.

Alexander the Great choose to settle in Babylon (IRAQ) and not in any Persian cities which tells you, there were no civilized cities in Persia comparatively.

[Chris Chuba]

I don't know who was the first to post the link to http://militarymaps.info/ but whoever it was I want to thank them. I go to it every day. It's elegant and beautiful. For all of the talk about how the Russians are allegedly these mind numbed robots who tow the party line, it is a great example of a collaborative effort. You can tell they make a great effort to keep the map up to date and to correct things that are wrong ASAP.

To cut down on the Col's moderating overhead I'd like to comment on the Boston Globe article that others have posted about, http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/02/18/the-media-are-misleading-public-syria/8YB75otYirPzUCnlwaVtcK/story.html

The author, Stephen Kinzer, is an old school foreign correspondent who actually visited the areas he wrote about and this is the excerpt that I'd like to pull from that great article ...

"Reporters who cover Syria check with the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House, and think tank “experts.” After a spin on that soiled carousel, they feel they have covered all sides of the story. This form of stenography produces the pabulum that passes for news about Syria.

Astonishingly brave correspondents in the war zone, including Americans, seek to counteract Washington-based reporting. At great risk to their own safety, these reporters are pushing to find the truth about the Syrian war. Their reporting often illuminates the darkness of groupthink. Yet for many consumers of news, their voices are lost in the cacophony. Reporting from the ground is often overwhelmed by the Washington consensus."

Sadly, the responses by the readers of the Boston Globe are followers of the Borg and seem to have no interest in thoughts that question the favored narrative.