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19 February 2016

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fasteddiez

That makes common sense if the NATO countries had any....sense that is. If the Sultan is crazy enough he has many American and western people handy to become hostages. Then would come the threats from the west, which Obama can not envisage in his wildest nightmares nor in the thoughts of his R2P harridans.

my.comment

a link to the english translation of the der spiegel article:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-worried-about-possible-turkey-russia-hostilities-a-1078349.html

from it:

In an effort to prevent further escalation, NATO has made it exceedingly clear to the Turkish government that it cannot count on alliance support should the conflict with Russia head up as a result of a Turkish attack. "NATO cannot allow itself to be pulled into a military escalation with Russia as a result of the recent tensions between Russia and Turkey," says Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn. ...

Ankara was already rebuked following the shooting down of the Russian warplane, with NATO diplomats speaking of a Turkish overreaction. "We have to avoid that situations, incidents, accidents spiral out of control," warned NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg.

Berlin agrees. "We are not going to pay the price for a war started by the Turks," says a German diplomat. Because decisions taken by the North Atlantic Council, NATO's primary decision-making body, must always be unanimous, it is enough for a single country to exercise its veto rights, the official says. But, the official adds, it won't get that far: there is widespread agreement with the US and most other allies that Turkey would get the cold shoulder in such a case.

Thirdeye

I can't agree with that. Erdogan capitalized on Turkey's agreed-upon role in the Syria regime change project to start setting his own agenda. Since the prospects for that project, and with it Erdogan's ambitions, have been glimmering, Erdogan has been looking for some way to force the Empire to double down. Thus far he has not been successful. How the current situation would play out with any of the current crop of US Presidential candidates other than Trump or Sanders should make our blood run cold.

It was entirely foreseeable that some NATO member would try to leverage the alliance for their own ambitions. We'll see whether or not NATO is capable of learning the lessons from the Turkey experience.

YT

http://katehon.com/article/geo-economy-issues

D

While it is feasible for Bloomberg to get on the general election ballot, it will require a decent amount of organization to get the 900,000 signatures required nationwide. He will need to decide fairly soon, as Texas - a state he would need if he were serious about winning - requires 80,000 signatures to be filed by May 9.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Requirements_for_independents

Bruce D

Look at the ratings of those comments. They show overwhelming support for Kinzer's view. Or did yesterday.

Kunuri

Turks are a martial people Sir, unlike any nation I know of, a common motto inbred in the culture is "Every Turk is born as a soldier". The discipline and propensity to a martial way of life, in defense, or offence is palpable and easily observable even in urban life here in the heart of Turkey where I live. An adolescent is not considered a true man, unless he performs some sort of military service, he may not even be allowed to marry until he does so. Those who serve in the military are revered and respected, and loved. This is a few millennia tradition, not a modern fad.

The army purges in which Gulen organization took part have been hard on the Army, But the falsely accused closed ranks, fought their innocence in courts democratically and since then all have been vindicated. Another saying goes here, is that, "Those who die on the battlefield, let them be, those who remain are ours". So, the falsely persecuted high ranking officers will be replaced by the rank behind them, much like a British Square of Waterloo times, but a special vengeance that will be lashed out at an opportune time. Of the unity of command and effectiveness of the Armed Forces, I would not worry. During the Korean War, of all the UN forces who were POWs, Turks lost the fewest men, because of a very effective pass of command due to losses, discipline, camaraderie and downright obstinacy that drove the Chinese and North Koreans crazy. Not one Turk turned communist, or ratted on his fellow soldiers, none were left behind. I know many of these people, comrades of my late father. Reading up of my handle name, Kunuri will tell you a few things.

Kunuri

Yes, Turkey will have the right to close the straights to Russians if open hostilities commence. But Russians read history, they will not force a passage. Therefore, they will not attempt an open war with Turkey, though they may try anything short of. As much as Turkey is at odds with NATO, thanks to a bunch of amateurs at helm, Turkey is still within the NATO umbrella.

Kunuri

Sir, Turkey has a standing Army of close to 500,000, with 4,000, 000 in reserves. Leave no man behind rule applies in the Turkish Army as well. The situation down there has no resemblance to Stalingrad, except in the romantic minds of people like you, or even me, who makes his living out of stuff like that.

Russians will not let it come to this kind of do or die gambit for Turks, Turkey will never open the straits, and will never let thousands of soldiers perish without too heavy a price on Russians. Germans threatened little Switzerland during the WWII as well, but were daunted by their resolve, and suicidal determination not to be stepped on without extracting too heavy a price. Even a maniac like Hitler was persuaded not to mess with them.

turcopolier

Kunuri

Russia will not let its expeditionary force in Syria be starved to death. pl

Kunuri

Yes Babak, I wrote here before, shooting down of that jet was utterly stupid. I blame, and point out one guy for that within Erdogan orbit, chief advisor and now presidents spokes person, Ibrahim Kalin. A true neocon, and a deep mole in his side, useful when someone needs Erdogan to take a certain step. I looked up his bio and credentials a few years back, some very incriminating associations in CIA recruitment farms, all have been wiped out from the internet now that he is no longer an academic.

And yes, Turkey and Russia were getting along just peachy for as long as I have been here. Antalya, has something like a 40 000 settled Russian population, I see Russians in Istanbul everyday, in my neighborhood, there are 5 star hotels built just for Russian tourists, one even named Kremlin in Antalya. There are border incursions all around on the air, on purpose or not. That incident was just plain bizarre. Its as if someone wanted to put Turkey and Russia on opposing ends of a feud so not to let something happen, or to pave the way to let something happen, I don't know. And in real world, Turks have no feuds or particular animosities with the Persians, actually very similar in world outlook, even closer to each other than the Arabs regarding each. Go figure.

Kunuri

Wouldn't have made a difference, Russians had one and only goal at those times, Absolute Vodka at Sultanahmet Square rather than Turkish coffee.

Kunuri

The Erdogan wrecking crew is doing damnest to link TAK with YPD, and if that does not work, link them to PKK, and link PKK to YPD. Then go bomb YPD to save their kind of Jihadis. Flim Flam men of Ankara, now you see it, now you don't, and abracadabra. How long before the world and Turkish people wake up to this nightmare-good grief!

Kunuri

Albayim, that is assuming there is open war between Turkey and Russia, and by Monteux treaty recognized by all nations, Turkey has the legitimate right to close the straights. If there is open war between Turkey and Russia, and short of illegal invasion or aggression by Turkey towards another sovereign nation, NATO obligations, and UN commitments should be in force. Then unfortunately it will have to be global war, where no one will win. Otherwise, Russians will be within their rights to do what they have to do. Anyway, if things come to that, somebody will have to remind somebody what happened to El Duce.

Lets just hope that there are enough responsible people out there whose influence outweighs, on both sides, over those who wish to be saved in the afterlife, at any cost to others.

Kunuri

Right on the money Babak, those asses don't fool me, but fool enough people with their messeniastic credentials, a lot of influential and gullible people. And are very dangerous, because they learn the craft of rhetoric and populist, faith based oratory skills that mesmerize on the surface. Like RTE. Like Hitler.

Kunuri

Yet the Sultan is very adapt at holding peoples as rhetorical hostages, and is used to putting those who expose his fallacies in jail. Like protestors, journalists and ordinary people who express discontent. But please don't tell me nobody in the Western world knew of this for the 14 years he had been a good boy for some.

Kunuri

Serious psychologists and academicians in the last decade have made credible arguments that he suffers from megalomania, personality disorder and is a pathological liar who actually believes in his own constructs .

turcopolier

kunuri

I am told that the friends of the Kemalists here despair in the hope of decisive action. pl

Brunswick

Turkey doesn't have nukes.

The US has nukes, in Turkey, at Inclirk. B61 Gravity Bombs.

ex-PFC Chuck

Assuming that the author is the same Stephen Kinzer who is a former NYT Middle East reporter, he's quite knowledgeable in the region. He's also written several books very much worth reading. The most one is "The Brothers: John Foster Dulles, Allen Dulles, and Their Secret World War." (http://amzn.to/1Uf063v) The author makes plausible case for asserting that the brothers' closeness enabled them to convince him to sign off on aggressive overt and covert actions and policies he might otherwise have avoided, including the 1953 coup in Iran. Kinzer wrote a book about that too, "All the Shah's Men."

charly

Which Turkey can use in retaliation in case of nuke use without presidential approval. At least that is what the rumors are of the B61 nukes treaty. And i don't really think that it really matters what is in the treaty because Turkish F14 will fly with those nukes in case of Russia nuclear use, with or without American approval.

turcopolier

charly

That is absolute bullshit!! The US NEVER turns over nukes to anyone!!! pl

Outrage Beyond

Do tell us more about these rumors and their source. Please also explain how and when the US transferred custody of the bombs to Turkey and the codes (PAL) to arm them.

Fred

charly,

That rumor mill writer drank a bit too much cool aid. The US isn't about to turn over nuclear weapons to any nation. There is also, baring the US, little military power in NATO that could on short notice pose an existential threat to Russia.

Russia has shown it's weapons systems work and that they have clear headed strategic thinkers in government and the military. They don't need to resort to tactical nuclear weapons. Russia could turn the lights out in Turkey with a rather small number of cruise missiles. I'm sure there is no practical defense at civilian power plants. This would cripple Turkish industrial output and most of its economic output at the same time; and do so for a very long time.

Someone in the Turkish armed forces should be explaining reality to their civilian masters just like our own needs to do with the borg.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Turkey

kao_hsien_chih

Kunuri,

Some of my friends and acquaintances in US academia who went on trips to Turkey funded by some religio-political organization--which I assume must be the Gulen organization. Their specialty is in electoral strategy--how to mobilize votes and maximize the electoral gains most efficiently (both so-called "ground game" in campaigns and how to take advantage of electoral formulas.) I don't know how and where Gulen fits in the electioneering game in Turkey or whether the students it sends out are trained in these tactics. Fascinating (and frightening) how they play the long run game with with the clubs and ballot boxes.

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