« 2,000 fewer rebels in Idlib Province | Main | The East Aleppo pocket has closed »

19 February 2016

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Jack

All

IMO in this day and age if any major power uses a tactical nuke the backlash of public opinion around the world would be huge. Its not worth it unless it is existential.

What I have observed of Putin and the Russian military with respect to Syria is that they are sober realists and very professional. The restraint they showed when one of their fighters were shot demonstrated seriousness in decision making.

Erdogan could be a loose canon. But I doubt Obama will bail his ass if he does something rash and gets whacked. Neither the Europeans. They may huff & puff but I doubt they'll get into a war with Russia. Too much risk for unintended consequences and spiraling out of control.

Babak Makkinejad

Putin already stated, in connection with Ukraine, last year: "Let me remind our partners that we are a nuclear armed state."

My point was specifically about this document's claim that Putin had explicitly threatened the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Syria against Turkish Army.

It is just not Putin to make such statements.

Babak Makkinejad

What was stupid, at the level of Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran, was the shooting down of the Russian jet fighter - a friendly country with which Turkey was enjoying good relations after hundreds of years.

With the disintegration of USSR, all of which that the Tsars of Muscovy had gained over 300 years were gone and Turkey no longer bordered Russia. It was time for a new chapter.

[Similar to Iran, in that respect.]

But no, they had to go and spite the Bear....

And help wreck another Muslim country - I guess as long as women are wearing hejab it is quite acceptable to ruin the lives and livelihoods of others....


Kooshy

I don't think Russia will use nukes on Turkey unless NATO gets involved, But I also don't see why NATO would want a war at all. Besides the media PR I can't see a real coherent stratgic alliance in NATO

SmoothieX12

"seemed to happen a few moments after it was public that france and US would not support the russian UNSC draft..."

This draft was put out by Russia not to pass but to fail. It was done deliberately. It is called the diplomatic cover of things of non-diplomatic nature. Also shows who is who.

Jack

All

This is in German but the computer translation says NATO will not support Turkey in a war with Russia.

http://m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/a-1078275.html

You can be fairly certain that while the Europeans may talk a big game when push comes to shove they will not escalate to war with Russia. OTOH, if it were one of our crazies like all our neocon inspired candidates (Hillary, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich) the outcome is not certain. IMO, Obama for all his narcissism will not directly get involved in a military confrontation with Russia. He may try to be devious by arming & supporting the jihadists who are on the run now. But maybe the time for even that has now passed as the R+6 are on such a roll.

BB

We need RICO laws applied to think tanks, lobbies, and PACs.

Barish

This TAK crew reads like the Kurdish version of "Continuity IRA". Or, alternately, like some red herring set up by the good MIT, reminiscent of the "Khorasan-scare" that was run a while ago...

About that latter thing: I'm a bit hazy about the details, but was this supposed to be a sub-division of Nusra or ISIL, as per official reading?

Barish

Der Spiegel mostly runs the same hive-mind trash you'd find on WaPo, WSJ, Graun or similar. Sometimes, though, they do still deliver articles that reveal a modicum of interest in self-preservation, if nothing else:

"Syrienkonflikt: Warnung aus der Nato an die Türkei

Kein bedingungsloser Schutz gegen Russland: Die Nato würde Ankara im Falle einer türkischen Aggression gegen Moskau keine Hilfe leisten, sagte Luxemburgs Außenminister Asselborn dem SPIEGEL."

"Syria conflict: warning from NATO to Turkey

No unconditional protection against Russia: the NATO would not lend support in case of a Turkish aggression against Moscow, Luxembourg's FM Asselborn told the Spiegel."

SmoothieX12

"The real question for me, though, is whether the present day Western leaders are sufficiently aware of their surroundings to realize this."

The "quality" of Western so called "elites" declined so badly that I would assume that they are simply not capable to comprehend even "lite" military-political and geopolitical briefings. It is expected in the environment of the Ivy League humanities "educated" people who never had any serious applicable skills other than what amounts to a degrees in English or some "philosophical" abstractions. As I already stated, I know the "level" of many US "Russia's specialists"--it is appalling, it is also dangerous since those "experts" form public opinion and have the ear of decision makers. OODA loop was broken with almost complete eradication of two "Os" from it. So, I would say--no, they are not sufficiently aware, which is a polite form of defining ignorance.

Skuppers

I've been thinking about this. I believe closing the straits is the long term goal of the Obama crowd;I won't give them credit for thinking very far ahead. Russia could easily counter by allowing the turks to go all the way to Aleppo, then slamming the door shut by dropping a couple of divisions worth of troops across their LOC. recall their snap drills last week? A mini Stalingrad. Starving 18 or 29 thousand Turkish troops should be enough to reopen the straits.

JJackson

Good, a shocking bit of commonsense on NATO's part. What is the position on NATO members who attack other countries and endanger all the rest of us. Can they be expelled?
Personal I would be perfectly happy if Syria told everyone not invited to assist them that they would be targeted including NATO planes in Syrian air space and SF on the ground. If Turkey continues to fire artillery into Syria they should be told to expect to have their batteries destroyed by cruise missiles. I can not see NATO being anything like as patient as the Russians have been, were the boot on the other foot. The non-aligned countries are rapidly learning that we are the global bad guys, if they didn't already. I am getting fed up with being on the wrong side of one conflict after another.

gemini33

I'm surprised by that statement by Parry, directly quoting a source close to Putin. I don't think I've seen Parry do that before. He has cited sources in the US intelligence community a number of times but I don't recall Putin related sources.

I take Parry seriously.

I thought this had calmed down and that the Saudis and Turks threats of invasion were pretty much exposed as bluster as an attempt to get Russia to back down.

I seriously doubt Putin would make a threat like that unless he thought they were really planning to attack their air base in Syria and/or some other Russian target.

An al-Masdar article also had really, really strong language but it was weakly sourced. In that article it claimed Putin also said he'd also go to war with the US if necessary.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/29249/

Babak Makkinejad

So this is where we are:

A few steps away from World War III - either in Eastern Ukraine or in Northern Syria...soon to be joined by the South China Sea...

I hope everyone now appreciates the point that I have been making for the need to replace the now defunct Peace of Yalta with a new one.

annamaria

May I suggest that Turkey has been used as a disposable patsy to stress out the Russian federation. This clever game could have certain unintended (and horrific) consequences for the armchair warriors and war profiteers and, first of all, for the real humans. It is not impossible that the prolonged unaccountability for the top echelon has eventually generated the overwhelming numbers of incompetent opportunists among the US "deciders and advisers."

gemini33

Red flags went up for me too when I saw Gulen's name in that letter. What are these senators even calling for with respect to Gulen, and why? I would have never heard of the guy except that Sibel Edmonds has talked about him in her analysis numerous times.

annamaria

Considering the consequences - the considerable loss of commerce and tourism and pipeline - it is hard to believe that Turkey made that supra-stupid decision on air ambush on her own volition.

James Loughton

Although I understand that the Turks have been respected as tenacious fighters, like you I have to wonder about the impact of the Army purges on the military's morale and competence.

charly

Problem is the Turkish army has nukes too

turcopolier

charly

No, they do not. pl

BB

Potential independent candidate Michael Bloomberg is also a rabid Zionist would have no qualms about supporting Islamism/jihadism and destroying secular Middle East Arab countries to fulfill the ultimate goals of Clean Break. Bloomberg will only get into the race if it comes down to Trump and Sanders. Very telling.

Babak Makkinejad

Gulen is another intellectual and political dead end.

I too was surprised to see his name; but then I thought it foolish for non-Muslims to try to pick winners and losers of Islam. Hubris.

Babak Makkinejad

I do not think anyone set Erdogan or other Turkish leaders up to it; they did it on their own.

During the last 2 centuries of the Ottoman Empire, on several occasion, the English counseled them against aggressive actions against the Russian Empire - sometimes they prevailed and some times their advice was ignored.

Each time the Ottoman Empire ignored that sage English advice, she lost more of her territories to the Russian Empire.

rkka

That's what I called it well prior to 1991, the least warlike, least bloody 46 years of European history in the last thousand, and probably more.

War returned to Europe within weeks of the Warsaw Treaty Organization dissolving itself.

And in each of a good many of the years since 1991, there were more war dead inflicted in Europe than were inflicted there during the entire existence of the Warsaw Treaty Organization.

Jack

Agreed. IMO, the US and Russia should conclude a Peace & Friendship Treaty. We have more in common than differences. And from a geopolitical and strategic perspective it will enable an alignment away from the Ziocon lunacy. Global stability should be the emphasis for the remainder of this century. There's too many exciting developments in molecular biology, materials science and astrophysics to focus on.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

February 2021

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28            
Blog powered by Typepad