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25 January 2016

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Thirdeye

"While the Russian Air Force pounds the Islamist rebel defenses inside Kinsibba, the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade of the Republican Guard has begun to surround the aforementioned village – alongside Liwaa Suqour Al-Sahra (Desert Hawks Brigade), the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), the National Defense Forces (NDF), and Muqawama Souri (Syrian Resistance) – in preparation for their massive assault on this Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) stronghold in northeastern Latakia."

http://test.almasdarnews.com/article/russians-continue-to-pound-kinsibba-as-syrian-ground-forces-prepare-to-strike/ | Al-Masdar News 1/28

A lot of action not reflected in situation maps yet.

Babak Makkinejad

You do not understand the Middle Eastern people. US & EU occupy the same place in their minds as Paradise would in the mind of a religious person.

This not only applies to the non-religious but also to the people with strong religious sentiments.

And then there is the little matter of the stipend that EU states would pay to refugees per month - everyone is aware of that and counts on that.

China has no such policy.

When Afghans illegal immigrants started arriving in Iran after 1982, there were no state-sanctioned hand-outs for them. They were given a refugee status card and told to go find themselves some useful work. There were state-supported charitable organizations that supplied them with initial aide but the level of support that refugees have enjoyed in Western Europe was not available to the Afghans (and later, the Iraqi refugees).

Cut the hand-outs and see how many would flee to EU.

Thirdeye

I understand that KSA was involved in a stratagem to undercut the market for Russian oil concurrent with the sanctions. It affected the higher cost producers worse. Now that the debt-laden higher cost production infrastructure is in place, they have to either pump or go bankrupt. It's a lot like the farm crisis of the 1930s - producing more to compensate for depressed commodity prices depresses the price even further. KSA was protected up to a point by their low production costs, but prices have reached a point where they are cutting back on social benefits and raising taxes. That undercuts the social contract that has propped up KSA for years. As long as the money was flowing, the despotism was tolerable. The costs of their various Jihadi projects are much more onerous than they used to be and they can't cut back on those without risking instability. The invasion of Yemen turned into a costly quagmire that they have no idea how to get out of.

Chris Chuba

Some new developments around Kinsabba.

http://i68.tinypic.com/90n5tk.jpg - This is a zoom in of the map image from http://militarymaps.info/
The SAA has taken Karura and Beyt Aydo which are along the M4 highway that runs north of Kinsabba. This puts the SAA within 4km of that city. Also, they have taken Ara which is directly south of the Kinsabba. Maybe they want to drive from the south to take some of that really high ground as well as pressure the rebel forces from two directions. I see elevations as high as 800m from the south while the approach from the north from M4 starts at an elevation of 400m. Perhaps some of the military guys can comment on that since I am not one.

Here are some stories linked with the map ...
http://sana.sy/en/?p=67791
"Later, the source said that army units, in cooperation with popular defense groups, restored security and stability to the villages of al-Qalai’e, Karoura, al-Qastal, Bashoura, and Beit Dedo and to the mountains of Bradon, Bardon, al-Qala’a, and al-Khedr in Lattakia’s northern countryside."

http://rusvesna.su/news/1454018825
"In the province of Latakia government army units, together with the forces of the people's militia ousted the militants from the settlement Ara."

aleksandar

Do they need heavy weapons ? Take a look at the map, Deyr-Ezzor is urban and semi-urban. In this kind of battlefied, heavy weapons are useless. The front line is about 15 km to 20. SAA and friends forces can be estimated from 2000 to 2500. Conclusion they only hold posts along the front line with the constraint of having reserve forces ready to "fill the gap" if necessary. What they really need is more military engineering to harden theirs positions.
The average attack ratio is 2/1 minimum in open field and 3/1 in urban sectors. Mean that to conquer Deyr-Ezzor ISIS need at least 6000 terrorists. Not shure they can and would concentrate such a force to conquer Deyr-Ezzor. As I have seen on the video it looks more like "infiltration" tactics to test from place to place the SAA defences. What you need in this case is small portable arms,rifles, machine gun, Browning M2 12.7, mortars and some tanks and APCs.I have smiled and be surprised seeing SAA using ZSU 23/4, an anti-aircraft tank to support infantry but before Lebanon no one would bet an RPG7 could be use inside a building.You can, just put a wet blanket on your back ! Men at war....

turcopolier

aleksander

The Shilka is an excellent anti-personnel weapon system. pl

LeaNder

thanks, Thomas.

I cannot promise I'll grasp whatever you'll trying to tell me.

But tacked the link out of respect for Babak and the link to the Seljuk Empire. Beyond that I am vaguely aware of the Assassins. ;)

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