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14 January 2016

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Kyle Pearson

After reading this interview with Chas Freeman (link below), and Col. Lang's recent ruminations about the Saudi royal house, i suspect that the Saudis are going to make it rather easier for the US to gradually shift away from the Sunni Wahabi groups relatively soon.

Unfortunately, with this war in Syria, what we have done is put up a wall between the West and the Shia Crescent, which yes - seems very much like it will overwhelmingly align with the Sino-Russian eastern axis.

That's where the ancient Silk Road ran. The Silk Road made China the wealthiest, most peaceful, and most prosperous land on the planet for some 2500 years or so. Back then, the various tribes who came to rule the steppe that lies between China and the West acted as the gatekeepers and protectors of the trade, and Iran was the main intermediate beneficiary of the trade. I see no reason why some modern facsimile of that era will not rise again, and *very* soon it will be much cheaper and faster to ship goods across open land than it will be to ship them via sea, or air.

But perhaps that's looking too far into the future.

http://lobelog.com/saudi-disillusionment-with-the-u-s-started-with-bush/

Harper

With the announcement that President Xi Jinping is to visit Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt in the coming days, China could wade in to the post-war Syria situation with a Marshall Plan "with Chinese characteristics." This is being openly discussed in a just-released Chinese government white paper on relations with the Arab world, and even the Wall Street Journal mooted in December that China could hold the key to reconstruction of Syria postwar, through its One Belt, One Road policy of building transportation corridors to Europe, via a land route of rail and a sea route that runs through the Suez Canal into the eastern Mediterranean. A majority of Syrian refugees in Germany say they hope to return to Syria to rebuild the country after the defeat of ISIS. While many want to see Assad go, a Marshall Plan framework would be enough to encourage the Syrian middle class to return to rebuild. This is, of course, a best case scenario, but it is not unrealistic. China has over $5 trillion in reserves and is far more inclined to invest in durable longterm infrastructure than in the kind of paper investments that were wiped out after 2008. One Belt, One Road is a serious initiative and the Chinese have created several investment banks to fund the projects. China just joined the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which is another vehicle for such reconstruction investment. Comments?

Fred

Kyle,

There were plenty of wars in and near China over the 25 centuries you are describing as the most peaceful on the planet.

alba etie

Harper
Do you foresee any UNSC resolution supporting this Sino-Syrian Marshall Plan that might include PLA Blue Helmets ?

alba etie

Kyle Pearson
This could also be a long term fix to the "Stans " economic development that might be a further deterrent to the ISIS narrative taking hold there. Win Win - a Tri Polar world is much safer IMO - I wonder if Modhi and India will get a piece of this new Silk Road ?

LeaNder

interesting, Harper.

noticed your name on the right hand bar. rare contributor here ;)

*****

If I may, add something not worthwhile. Yesterday I watched a long press conference by Cologne police, more generally about the larger context that surfaced "not" about events on Sylvester.

German police has to register everyone they meet without "identity", or recognized identiy, as having committed "illegal entry".

Of the people it registers in this way. Syrians surface again in the following year to a rate of 0,58%. Meaning almost not.

rjj

seems to me a lot depends on 1. the period of cycles and 2. the magnitude of the catastrophic events.

have no idea how widely this treat has been seen... posting [just in case] because it demonstrates the bounty of The Internets, thanks be unto AlGore.

https://youtu.be/hyry8mgXiTk?t=1137

different clue

alba etie,

I personally hope that the R + 6 can get Syria totally decontaminated and secured before the UN has a chance to interfere.
The UN would just want to freeze and preserve the conflict so as to manufacture an opportunity to keep itself "busy", "relevant", and "employed" in Syria. Let us pray the UN can be pre-empted from getting to do any of that.

Barish

Speaking of the time after ISIL, can actions such as this, horrific as it is, be considered one of their last "hurrahs!" before the push to exterminate them gains more and more speed?

http://news.yahoo.com/toll-attack-syria-forces-deir-ezzor-rises-75-192919561.html

I still got to cringe seeing the Coventry-show being quoted here...

Elsewhere, on a tactical level, I read that ISIL may hope that they can draw the government forces' attention away from the steady advance towards al-Bab to this area.

YT

Yes, Fred. You state the obvious.

The Chinks are prone to in-fighting & civil war.

But their track record for terrorizing their neighbors... well, it pales in significance & contrast to the former imperialist nations of the occident west.

I'd rather see economic & political stability (even if authoritarian) in the mainland as well as Russia & the US.

A Concert-of-Powers that will ensure "global peace" (at least) till the 22nd. c. is (still) possible yes, Col. Lang, sir?

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