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09 January 2016

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Tyler

Mark my word this will end in blood and the people morally signaling their GoodThinking by basically saying "SHUT UP AND FEEL" will be responsible.

LZA

There's a very serious risk that the influx of refugees includes takfiris and that Europe could be subjected to a wave of terrorist attacks. The Czechs seem extremely concerned. Milosevic Zeman met with Putin recently to discuss anti-terrorism measures, and his foreign minister subsequently went to Iran for talks on addressing the terrorism threat. The Russian and Arab media have reported that a number of refugees are well-dressed, have iPhone and other electronic devices, and appear to have quite a bit of money. The Jerusalem Post recently warned that terrorists could strike first in Hungary and France, later in Germany and Britain.
Preventing a terrorist attacks will be an unrivaled challenge for European intelligence agencies. And the consequences of a major attack or a series of attacks could be devastating. Europe is very fragile economically and can I'll afford to pay for additional security costs or compensate for the loss of tourism revenue.

Below is a link to the Kremlin readout of the Putin-Zeman meeting. Semantic proposes a UN Security Council resolution that would -- among other measures -- strike at terrorist training centers. (I would guess this is aimed at the Turks).

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50225

DC

Europe should consider embarking on a massive public relations effort to demonize the governments and related legal systems of the countries from whence the refugees came, mostly from the middle east but also muslim afghanistan. We did it with Cuba and its immigrants to the US. The result would be, hopefully, tying those immigrants to the culturally superior West, at least as sold by the public relations story. Perhaps some of them will eventually return with renewed transformative vigour, or return in the next generation. Perhaps, over time, there would be enough dialogue with the Muslim east to encourage those governments to modernize through the process of viewing the (hopefully successful) example of the immigrants to the West. But, if too many of the western-inclined attempt refugee status rather than remain home, the mid-term picture for Europe certainly looks grim.

No one is mentioning the pull of the ancient Persian culture and Iran's ostensibly progressive-minded citizenry. Perhaps they can save us all.

Abu Sinan

I am worried how this will turn out as well. The reaction of the German public recently has been nice, but I just wonder how this all goes when reality sinks in? The Germans, in reality, havent even dealt with their Turkish population and its impacts yet. We arent too far off a time when 3rd generation Turks were not German citizens regardless that they didnt speak Turkish, had never been to Turkey and their grandparents moved to Germany in the 1950s.

I am also sure that AQ and ISIS will have used the opportunity to slip members into the EU along with the migrants. The expected issues with settling them into various countries is one thing, the public's reaction if/when large scale terrorist attacks happen because of infiltration with the migrants is another.

KSA has offered to build 200 mosques in Germany for the migrants. I almost thought I was reading "The Onion" when I saw that. If the German state allowed the Saudis a foothold in the German Muslim community like that they are insane.

LondonBob

Amused to watch the contrast in coverage between Russia Today and the BBC on this issue. Clearly the Russian government is a lot more concerned with having a bunch of failed states on their western border than the British establishment is in presiding over one. That said there does appear to be a general awareness amongst the general populace, as well as elements on the right of the British establishment, that the numbers are limitless and the effects will be dire. Unfortunately this is a sentiment that seems to be only shared by the Eastern European nations. Merkel has endangered Europe by flinging opening the gates and the signal as been seen across the world.

charly

A quarter of French are descendent's of Italian immigrants so integration into French society isn't that hard.

Tidewater

Tidewater to Turcopolier and All,

Yes, this is a tremendously important subject. I could not believe my eyes when I read in the 'Guardian' a day or so ago the remarks by the German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel that Germany could take 500,000 refugees yearly for the indefinite future.

I have been continuing to try to educate myself on The Weather. Back in 2007 Akio Kitoh, Akiyo Yatagi and Pinhas Alpert brought out the "first super-high-resolution model projection that the ancient 'Fertile Crescent' will disappear in this century." Now, remember that this super computer modelling in Japan did not have available the Semiletov/Shakova studies, and others following, that began to be released in about 2012. I also accept that there is a lot going on in Arctic studies that remains confusing and uncertain and that this is about the Middle East.

What I find interesting, to begin with, is how the weather works in the Mediterranean. (I know that it rains mud on Crete in the winter because I once saw a lot of it on the windshields of cars in the Heraklion market area at dawn, after getting off the overnight Pireus ferry. Which sailed at a twenty degree angle and a year or so later sunk. I was a little surprised in the cafeneion when the man said, "Oh, that's from the Sahara.")

Explaining the Japanese/Israeli study's conclusions, Der Spiegel said: "The Fertile Crescent and the grain cultivation which takes place there needs a lot of precipitation in the winter, as only then does the water level in rivers rise sufficiently to last through the dry season, which runs from spring to fall. The main season for rainfall is the winter," Alpert explains. "If you take October to March, you get over 90 per cent of the rainfall."

"During that time, humid air from the Atlantic comes in from the west via the Mediterranean. Abundant amounts of snow fall over the Taurus Mountains in Turkey and the Zagros Mountains in Iran and Iraq, which rise to well over 4,000 meters, as well as over the Golan Heights. In spring the snow melts, raising the water level of rivers. These rivers, whose waters are diverted on to fields for irrigation, are the lifelines of the Fertile Crescent."

By 2050, even excluding unsettled Arctic studies, the study predicted that there will be a significent deminution of rainfall off the Syrian coast. This could be a 40 per cent loss. Probably conservative. Even a slight rise in temperature will affect river flow in the region.

Now, what I am wondering about is how many people this would affect in the region, not just the Levant, by 2050. One needs to look all the way back into the east through Kurdish lands, Iraq, Iran... Would ninety million people be a reasonable estimate?

I simply don't see how this coming mass migraton can be absorbed by currently extremely generous Germany, or by anyone else. I don't think the United States, Britain, or Canada have any intention now or in future of taking in a large number of Muslim refugees.

The first thing that has to be done is for the West to build a Safe Zone in the Levant which will be able to absorb millions of refugees. The only possibility of this Safe Zone getting built is to support the Syrian Army and the Syrian government going forward. I seem to recall hearing that idea somewhere recently--oh yes! Moving right along, the Safe Zone is not going to be a liberal democracy. It is designed for an ongoing and probably worsening Weather Emergency.

Billions will have to be spent in this region. Improved water use in agriculture where some seventy per cent of any country's water resource gets used up, often wasted, has already become a rapidly developing business. Pipelines will need to be built, perhaps all the way to Egypt running down from Turkey. A quirk of climate change is that the Caucasus will get more rainfall, so it would seem that Turkey will be well supplied with water in 2050--assuming certain Arctic thinkers' ideas are off the mark-- and water conservation and use will become one of the grand new businesses. There will be many new desalinaton plants.

While deserts are forming in certain areas of the Middle East, the Levant could very well have survivablity in the Safe Zone for many millions.

However, if the Emergency continues to grow, the Safe Zone will not be enough. This opens up the whole questin of East Africa. And what China is doing there. It would seem to me that East Africa is within the legitimate sphere of European and NATO military influence. This a whole other subject, but to get right to the point, and risking a good deal of flak: We are moving back into the seventies in the Mediterranean. That is now and the near future. Going forward, we are moving back into Lord Palmerston's time.

Europe, with American support, hence NATO, has to go back into East Africa. Places where the water supply is adequate have to be invaded and reoccupied. A large area of East Africa will have to be developed and set aside as another Safe Zone for the vast Muslim migration that is not going to stop.

Fred

Col.,

"Their goal is cultural autonomy in separate enclaves." They want the economic achievements of centuries of Western cultural development without adopting the culture. Civilizations free-riders. They won't even defend their own cultures. Why should we let them destroy ours?

Kunuri

Does anyone know how impossibly difficult and painful for a refugee to reach the shores of Europe or America? Anyone with that kind of stamina and determination and sturdiness will be an asset to the countries that they take refuge in.

To illustrate the point, please watch the video of the man at the Hungarian border who was tripped by the Nazi camerawoman as he was trying to reach Austria, a Schengen country. He cursed upon sprawling out on the grass, got up and kept running with his meager possessions in a plastic bag and a little kid on his back. Natural selection process by circumstance, any country should be happy to take them in, especially US, with the oldest tradition in the world of taking in sturdy souls who will make America proud. Australia and New Zealand too...

The economically stagnant Europe needs exactly this kind of immigration to sustain their aging populations and socialized structures.

I suggest every sympathetic soul here to watch an Oscar winning foreign movie called "Journey of Hope".

SteveG

"The high standard of living in the destination of choice"
True. Upwards of 51 percent of legal and illegal immigrants
in the U.S. receive some type of government assistance
as opposed to 30 percent of natives. Quite the magnet.
IMO the current crop are not assimilating as previous
generations. We are supposed to celebrate diversity.
Balkanization anyone on a grand scale. Agree with
Tyler this will not end well for all concerned.

JohnH

I would love to know if there is an ethnic component to the refugee flood. The Syrian civil war went on for four years with no mass migration to Europe. Soon after Turkey started fighting the Kurds again, the flood started. Coincidence? Or is Turkey trying to do a little ethnic cleansing (not unprecedented)?

The name of the boy who washed up on the beach was Alan Kurdi. He was buried in Kobbani, the Kurdish town in Syria.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

This analysis is another example of why you rose to the top in your field.

Humans have always been on the move, seizing greener land. It is astonishing that Western rulers think that they can survive the coming flood of refugees that will overwhelm the developed world. It will not just be the people fleeing the religious wars that stretch from Afghanistan and Somalia through Syria to Ukraine that they instigated. Or those who are seeking a better life. There is the unprecedented flooding in Japan and elsewhere, the arctic ice melt and the Western United States drought. If rising sea levels flood the billion humans living in coastal areas, the diaspora will engulf the world. If that isn’t enough, the ruling neo-liberal ideology of austerity assures the continued transfer of wealth from working debt slaves to a few fabulously rich oligarchs who are protected by small proxy forces with directed robotic firepower.

Haralambos

Col. Lang and others,
On the ground here in Greece in the current refugee crisis with elections and austerity here, many Greeks have tried to help the refugees. Some seem to resent the disruption of their lives and tourist season, especially some who have had to deal with this influx and the impact on their businesses in the eastern Aegean islands like Lesbos, Hios, Kos to name a few. These islands are just a few miles from Turkey,

The Greeks are inundated and unable to process them, so they just do pro forma processing and pass them on heading north to the "Valhalla" of Germany and Scandinavia. There have been ugly scenes in Hungary and today from the border with FYROM (the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia--the only name Greece recognizes for the state due to potential irredentist claims against Greek territory in Macedonia).

It is not surprising to me that the refugees are coming now, since Turkey wants rid of them, I believe, and Germany has declared itself willing to accept many of them. A BBC report yesterday attempted to explain why now after the ructions over the past four years. It failed to mention geography and the news available via the social media. The one new bit of BBC news up today from the border of Greece with FYROM was that many trekking through were from Iraq not Syria.

The salient question you raise, Col. Lang, is "How will this current European Union manage to assimilate them?".


turcopolier

Charly et all

Yes, yes, I have French friends with Italian names. They marvel how much more French my mother's people and my wife's were than theirs. but, no matter, those immigrants to France as well as the numerous Portuguese and Poles were already Christian and of Western civilization. pl

walrus

I agree with Col. Langs point of view. This is the start of something big. We have morons in power in Australia who want to accommodate more Syrian refugees here. The general community attitude is cynical: how are we going to take care of these people when we can't even take care of all our own?

At some stage there is going to be an ugly backlash against unfettered migration.

FB Ali

"Perhaps some of them will eventually return with renewed transformative vigour, or return in the next generation".

They are already doing that! The bulk of the foreign jihadis joining IS, AQ and other such organizations are second or third generation children of immigrants to the West.

FB Ali

"KSA has offered to build 200 mosques in Germany for the migrants"

If true, why should anyone worry about IS and AQ having infiltrated the migrants? These will be permanent indoctrination centres.

FB Ali

More Western invasions of the East and the South?

Considering how the first lot turned out, I don't think this will work - except perhaps to enable Vietnam Vet's oligarchs to keep some of the "working debt slaves" usefully employed while they continue with their accumulation.

FB Ali

I agree with your comment. It places the current refugee crisis in its wider context, i.e, the shape of things to come. Unfortunately, all too soon.

Abu Sinan

Smart/cell phone ownership in the Shami area are very high. A large amount of the people would have smart phones. This means nothing to anyone who knows these countries. Refugees are going to only take their best and most expensive items and clothes, so expensive clothes means very little either. Unlike us Americans, the people from these countries save large amounts of money, often with multiple families and generations living in the same property allowing for a large amount of savings, much of which is often held in cash and gold. Keep in mind many of them will also have sold everything they own, including properties to flee. None of the things you mentioned in and of themselves, or together, mean much.

turcopolier

FB Ali

"Working debt slaves?" To whom are you referring? pl

FB Ali

I was quoting Vietnam Vet in his comment.

Eliot

Robert Putnam (Bowling Alone) did some interest research into the short term effects of diversity.

From an NPR interview.

"... what we discovered in this research, somewhat to our surprise, was that in the short run the more ethnically diverse the neighborhood you live in, the more you - every - all of us tend to hunker down, to pull in. The more diverse - and when I say all of us, I mean all of us. I mean blacks and whites and Asians and Latinos, all of us. The more diverse the group around us, ethnically, in our neighborhood, the less we trust anybody, including people who look like us. Whites trust whites less. Blacks trust blacks less, in more diverse settings."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12802663

steve

We didn't see this kind of massive migration with the wars in Iran and Afghanistan. What was unique about this conflict in Syria?

Steve

Dismayed

"Anyone with that kind of stamina and determination and sturdiness will be an asset to the countries that they take refuge in."

This is an assertion without any supporting evidence. There are plenty of 'tough' and 'sturdy' peoples who contribute nothing to higher human civilization or its advancement. We don't NEED the kind of asset they represent and we don't owe them anything. If these people are such great assets, they should be building up (the vast land areas of) their own civilizations instead of queuing up for welfare handouts in mine. Yes, the data DO show that non-European/non-Asian immigrants DO queue up for welfare at rates substantially higher than native Western populations.

"Natural selection process by circumstance, ..."

Natural selection is about generational propagation of patterns, genes and memes. We aren't interested in propagating the patterns of others, but of our own. We would be utter morons to allow hordes of people into our Western nations when we have decades of experience with them conclusively showing that the majority are not interested in assimilating. They aren't interested in becoming like us (memes) so why should we let them in so that they can change our own societies to better conform with what they want? What's in it for me? What's in it for my family? What's in it for my civilization? I'm not interesting in what they are offering, and if the polls of Donald Trump's growing campaign success are any indication, neither is most of the rest of my country.

"The economically stagnant Europe needs exactly this kind of immigration to sustain their aging populations and socialized structures."

LOL, compared to what?!?! Europe is not 'economically stagnant'. They could certainly be more productive, but European-culture nations are at the top of the global heap in standard of living and quality of life for a reason. Even Italy and Greece are UTTER POWERHOUSES of *organized* intellect and work ethic compared to every single Middle Eastern and African country that these immigrants hail from. Culture matters, and the vast majority of them are not interested in absorbing ours and we are not interested in absorbing theirs.

The whole age-structure demographic-bump end-of-civilization narrative is such utter nonsense. Implicit in all these arguments is the ludicrous assumption that any sub-replacement downturn will automatically lead to extinction. Peoples as collections of reproducing individuals can be seen as systems with all that entails of positive and negative feedbacks. The notion that Japan and Germany, both nations with very high population density, are inevitably doomed to demographic extinction simply because they are experiencing a temporary (and easily reversible) period of subreplacement procreation is, charitably, 'simple'.

I am genuinely sorry if the ugly truth is hurtful, but if you want to peddle a line of horse manure to people who have grown unhappily accustomed to recognizing the scent, you need to be prepared to be called on it.

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