"Syrian endgame could begin with Aleppo" al-monitor

 "The give and take over which opposition parties and individuals are represented in the peace talks may in the end be a sideshow for the real trend in Syria, which is the progress of the Syrian army, backed by Russia and Iran, in retaking territory from the Islamic State (IS), Jabhat al-Nusra and other armed groups. Who is winning on the battlefield matters more than who fills the chairs in Vienna or Geneva, although this is not to disparage the many positive contributions the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) can and will make to help Syria’s transition. But the Syrian endgame is more likely to be found in Aleppo rather than in well-intentioned ISSG meetings in European cities."  al-monitor

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/syria-isis-nusra-aleppo-opposition-jihadi-assad-terrorist.html#ixzz3xXyjKYe7

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Yes folks, "there is no substitute for victory."  The "opposition" will be destroyed on the plains of Idlib Province and then the civvies can bitch and whine all they want at a peace conference pl  

Comments

[alba etie]

Col Lang
So the Kurds get nothing in the way of a recognized state again ? Even after helping seal the border with Turkey ?

[turcopolier]

AE

Yes, life is unfair. IMO the best they can hope for are autonomous regions in Syria and Iraq. pl

[LeaNder]

Pleased, highly pleased in fact, cp.

You are aware I am fan of Ledeen and his Quija Board? Are you?

So he surfaced in Asia Times?

My mind is too small to sort out the pieces of the last 15 years' puzzle.

But that is quite a catch. So we have a the "New Axis of Evil".

****
never mind the once reigning idea of getting rid of the "state sponsorship of terrorism", by "drying out the sources".

How exactly did the scenario alter once ISIS took over the refineries. Never mind who sponsored state or interested parties.

[LeaNder]

Ulenspiegel, how would a "smaller Schengen" exactly fit into the concept of the--no doubt initially--Utopia EU?

Without Italy? Without Greece? Without Spain?

I cannot see that.

But yes, as the hunted German writer, I alluded to elsewhere, wrote in 1993:

Mainly Google translate, with only minor emendations. I am too lazy to reflect on a better translation.

"Sometimes, however, it seems to him as if he now heard one last crackling self-joining, as if he saw the last, who managed to escape into a home, a soft snap, door being locked, back into it's balance. Then: Only cracking of strands, given hands, nervous, contracts, networks and dreams."

Original:
"Mitunter aber will es ihm scheinen, als hörte er jetzt ein letztes knisterndes Sich-Fügen, als sähe er gerade noch die Letzten, denen die Flucht in ein Heim gelang, vernähme ein leises Einschnappen, wie ein Schloß, ins Gleichgewicht. Danach: nur noch das Reißen von Strängen, gegebenen Händen, Nerven, Kontrakten, Netzen und Träumen."

[Babak Makkinejad]

I do not endorse federalization based on ethnicity which is often quite impractical.

I think they should put rulers on the maps and create mixed federal districts.

[alba etie]

Col Lang
I would bet dollars to donuts that President Putin would at least guarantee a Kurdish autonomous region in Syria. If for no other reason then to keep Erdogan from advancing his neo Ottoman vision any further ..

[Medicine Man]

I suspect Clinton's position will shift with the prevailing wind on this one.

[Medicine Man]

It doesn't look like life is that bad for ethnic/religious minority loyalists in Syria. They would certainly be a lot more secure if they preserve their defacto military alliance with the R+6.

[charly]

When i was a kid, which is long before Schengen, there were no real borders between the EU states (except UK) so no, i don't think this is the end of Schengen besides the fact that borders are really bad at stopping people and incredible expensive to do them well.

[turcopolier]

charly

You and I lived in different Europes. I remember being halted at every border to show my "papers." pl

[Charles Michael]

It looks a lot like EU is fracturing on several lines, Balkan states, ex- Eastern states, Scandinavian states, Mediterranean states and this just on the migrants flow.
We can observe previous divides between ants and cigalias, rich and poors, ultra-liberal and welfare states, the list goes on...
IMO after the fall of URSS and the "end" of cold war the only cement of UE has been NATO (remember Kohl and Mitterant first opposite reactions on Germans reunification and soon after the Yougoslavia breaking up).
Problem this NATO glue means war by necessity to keep sticking EU together and somme blackmail.

[charly]

Schengen was much earlier signed than i thought. 1985 signed, 1995 partially implemented. Time between 85 and 95 is my youth.

[Chris Chuba]

1. In reply to Matthew regarding Super Tuesday, I am hoping that the R+6 will tame the rebels and start chewing up ISIS before the Republican primaries are over to twist the knife in the back of the 'no fly zone' Republicans.

2. "I suspect Clinton's position will shift with the prevailing wind on this one."
I'd love to watch her try to pull that maneuver. In her book, 'Hard Choices', she did her best to write a lot without saying anything but one of the few things she actually did say was affirm that she is a regime change neocon in Syria.
Here is a review of someone who deserves a Purple Heart for actually reading that tripe ... https://consortiumnews.com/2015/09/29/hillary-clintons-wicked-syrian-choice/
It looks like he did a thorough job.

[different clue]

alba etie,

Kurdish autonomy withIN Syria wouldn't be a bad deal for the Syrian Kurds. Getting the Turkish border sealed and getting the border zone purged of outlaw settlers and terrorists would be its own reward carrying its own benefits, I should think.

The R + 6 haven't fought this hard this long for a united single Syria only to permit it to break up in a new and different way.

[Thirdeye]

Any thoughts on how that might play out with the Kurdish issue in Turkey? It seems to me that it would energize Kurds internationally to gain that sort of recognition and that it would a smart move for the Syrian and Iraqi leadership to align with Kurdish aspirations.

[Ulenspiegel]

Leander,

we will see a more fact based alignment in some fields. There would be no real harm if e.g. a country like Greece, which is not able to protect the border, leaves the Schengen area.

A Brexit, which I assume and support would add to an realignment. BTW I am a supporter of a Europe of two speeds.

[Ulenspiegel]

Charles,

the EU has expanded too fast in some fields, therefore, we see backslashs there. To assume that this will lead to a desintgration of the EU is IMHO much too pessimistic. Even Greece is still in the Euro zone despite the fact that they were promised money to leave. :-)

You overerestimate the role of NATO as glue, especially after the desitegration of WP: All the political developements in Spain or Portugal were a result of EU, this during cold war; the changes in Poland were result of EU, too, these after 1990 - and would have been possible without Polish NATO membership.

I assume that we see in future a EU of two/three different speeds; there will allways be countries that use the Euro and follow the same rate of political integration.

[Barish]

To follow up on this, same source reports as follows:

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-secures-the-strategic-village-of-ateiri-in-northern-latakia/

Worth keeping an eye on, but it does appear the insurgents don't stand much of a chance turning this one around again.

[LeaNder]

" if e.g. a country like Greece, which is not able to protect the border, leaves the Schengen area."

Can that work? The rest is going to wall itself in, closing everything including the outer "green frontiers"?

German Wikipedia:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gr%C3%BCne_Grenze

In case you still have Greece on your mind occasionally, you may be interested in Klaus Kastner's blog:

http://klauskastner.blogspot.com.au/

I found him helpful.