Twilight of the rebels south of Damascus

 "In a pivotal step reflecting the changeability of military and political deals in Israel’s neighborhood, Jordan has almost overnight agreed to establish a shared war room with Russia for the concerted conduct of their operations in Syria. This represents an extreme reversal of Amman’s policy. Until now, Jordan fought against Russia’s protégée Bashar Assad from a joint war room north of Amman called the US Central Command Forward-Jordan, as part of a lineup with the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel."  Debka

-------------------

IMO, the retention of Jordanian participation in the CENTCOM ops center in Jordan is just re-insurance intended to hedge Jordan's new bet on R+6's coming victory in the area south of Damascus.  With this new policy, Jordan will help Russia destroy the rebel forces in that area or will undoubtedly disarm them as they cross the border into Jordan.  Jordan needs to get the war over with so that the masses of Syrian refugees can go home, but the price of that should not to be to let jihadis find a refuge in Jordan.  Jordan has far too many takfiri salafi within its borders already.  Article 9 may apply to some.

King Abdullah came to Washington this week to discuss this (possibly seeking available "gimmedats?") and was in the process of being ignored by Obama (obsessed as he is with "justice").  Then some brave soul explained to the prez that Jordan was abandoning its alliance with the US and Israel in favor of R+6.  That was evidently enough to get his attention (even though still distracted by Sandy Hook and his continuing grief).  He met Abdullah planeside at Andrews AFB as the little guy was leaving the US, but, alas, too little too late.

Debka's tone in this piece is remarkable.  It reeks of Israeli ethnocentric arrogance.  Jordan is not a serious player militarily, really? Moscow's "key objective" is to clear south Syria of rebels?  In fact the action in northern Syria is much more significant from Moscow's POV in that it is likely to kill more jihadis.   These will be jihadis who will not end up back in Russia. 

About the only thing that could save the rebels south of Damascus from their Gotterdammerung would be an Israeli attack into the flank of R-6.   Good luck on that happening!  pl 

 

https://www.debka.com/article/25166/Putin-bypasses-Israel-sets-up-joint-war-room-for-S-Syria-with-Jordan-

Comments

[cynic]

Perhaps ingratiating himself with the winners may not prevent him from passing on information to his previous friends, to stay on good terms with them in case circumstances change again.

[b]

Debka lies like it usually does.

The Jordan-Russian "war room" in Amman was announced in October 2015 by Lavrov.

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151023/1029000391/russia-jordan-military-coordination-lavrov.html

It has been working since. The military coordination center in Jordon, of which Israel to my knowledge was NOT part, has shut down the support for the southern rebels several month ago. There was a disagreement about what to attack next and the rebels went off, did what they wanted to do and failed.

Abdullah visited Moscow at the end of November last year. Since then Jordan shut down the whole southern front business.

Debka just wants to blame Abdullah and create trouble for him.

Why does anyone still regard them as a reliable source?

---

The SAA is moving rapidly from Quweiris north to Al-Bab. Syrian media claim that IS is pulling back from the city. Al-Bab is on the IS occupied Raqqa-Turkey route.

From the northeast the (mostly Kurdish) SDF is pushing towards Manbij. There were several Russian air support missions today in support of their move.

Should the 10 kilometer Al-Bab-Manbij connection along the M4 be closed IS would loose its direct access to Turkey.

It would also have to rename its monthly magazine "Daqib". The town of Daqib, in which the big endtimes battle between crusaders and believers was supposed to happen, would be cut off from IS land without any crusader ever appearing.

[LondonBob]

Amusing how the Russians are establishing themselves as the dominant power in the region despite have no real desire or plan to. Good luck to them, I am sure they will make a better go of it and be a more even handed referee in the various disputes.

[David Habakkuk]

All,

Describing the exchanges between Putin and Netanyahu at their meeting in November, DEBKAfile write:

'There is no doubt that the prime minister spoke firmly about Israel's abiding concern that, once Assad regained control of the South, he would open the door up to the Israeli border and let in his allies and Israel's arch enemies, Hizballah and the mostly-Iraqi Shiite militias fighting under the command of officers from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

A Reuters report by Josh Cohen, which has just appeared in the 'Jerusalem Post', is entitled: 'Analysis: Putin closest thing to a friend Israel has ever had in Moscow.'

(See http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Putin-closest-thing-to-a-friend-Israel-has-ever-had-in-Moscow-441622 .)

Among other things, the article describes the way that the Russian intervention in Syria has created a 'de-facto Russian Shi'ite axis'.

It discusses the potential problems caused for Israel as a result of the introduction of S-400 missiles by the Russians into Syria, with their potential for interdicting IAF attempts to destroy weapons shipments to Hizbullah through Syria, and also the implications of Russia's reversal of its cancellation of the supply of the S-300 to Iran. And Cohen informs us that:

'According to a recent report, Russia is transferring weapons directly to Hezbollah, since Moscow views Hezbollah as a more effective fighting force than the Syrian army. If the report is accurate – and it's not yet clear it is – two questions emerge: Is Russia transferring the same types of weapons to Hezbollah that Hezbollah has already acquired from Iran, or are they more advanced? And would Russia permit Hezbollah to use these weapons against Israel as well as the Syrian rebels?'

If I had to hasard a guess, it would be that Russia strongly does not want conflict between Hizbullah and Israel, and would like to establish some kind of 'modus vivendi' between Israel and the 'Shi'ite Crescent'.

However, as ever, dogs have only imperfect control over tails. Quite clearly, Putin is trying to finesse the objectives of decisively destroying the 'Islamic State', and minimising involvement of Russian ground forces. A logical implication is that he needs Hizbullah and Iranian forces, as well as Syrian, to fight with maximum effectiveness. It would seem to stand to reason that this objective is hard to achieve, without making all of these more formidable potential enemies of Israel.

It has moreover been absolutely clear for a very long time that Putin regards jihadists as an 'existential threat' to Russia.

One thing that baffles me is the apparent inability of neocons to realise that collaborating with such jihadists against the 'Shi'ite Crescent' would be liable to create a de facto alliance between them and Russia.

Another is the way that, confronted by the first genuinely philosemitic leader in Russia history, American neocons appear hell-bent on doing all they can to oust him. It appears that Victoria Nuland et al, the heirs of the perpetrators of the Lvov pogrom are far preferable.

Are these people simply ignorant and stupid, or actively deranged?

[J]

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-syria-agreed-open-ended-military-presence-moscow-095030573.html

Russia, Syria agreed 'open-ended' military presence for Moscow

[turcopolier]

b

Announcing something as a trial balloon and actually implementing it are two different things. pl

[Medicine Man]

Mr. Habakkuk:

I'm not sure if your last question was rhetorical or not but I'll take a shot at answering it. The utter invariability of neocon hostility to Russia leads me to select "deranged" as the answer. They are so captured by the injustices of the past that they resist any attempt at re-evaluation. To them all Russians are the heirs of those pogroms, regardless of recent history or facts.

Col. Lang was touching on something very significant when he recently commented on Sen. McCain's rage problems.

[different clue]

Cynic,

I would suspect the King suspects the R + 6 may be watching for signs of that. If he thought to do that, he would not risk letting it be done with such scrutiny all around.

Then too, the swiftness of King Abdullah's turnabout makes one think he suspects victory for the R + 6 may be too swift and too total to risk any such double games. Withal, he has made the right choice, even if for the wrong reasons. And if his principal reason is to get far enough away from the Titanic so as to not be sucked under when the Titanic sinks, what is wrong with that as a reason?

[Tyler]

Marking this day down on the calendar as the first time the Colonel used "gimmedats". It is a good day.

[different clue]

David Habakkuk,

Probably actively both. Brill-yunt in-DUH-lectuals coming from a brill-yunt in-DUH-lectual left wing tradition have long confused prolix verbosity with intelligent thinking. Keeping within the Jewethnic groupload of people
so as to keep it an apples-to-apples comparison, Albert Einstein was intelligent whereas William Crystal is an intellectual.

Perhaps Putin can put the kind of slow friendly coercive pressure on the Israeli polity such that "correlation of brainwar forces might be bent against the Revisionists and towards such legacy Rabinists as still survive. Perhaps Putin will be the rescue squad who digs the Rabinist coal miners out from the Revisionist cave in.

[Tyler]

Mr. Habakkuk

Most neocons are those Jews that have discarded much of the religious identity of Judaism and have replaced it with secular hedonism.

However the Tikka Olam crap that is their license to meddle is still held onto. Their animosity is still about the Tsar, Pussy Riot, and homo marriage. There is also the not so small fact that Russia repudiated communism. Seeing as how many neocons are former communists (supposedly on the former) this grinds their gears.

[anatol]

David Habakkuk,
It seems that Israel and Russia have diligently worked on deconflicting measures in and around Syria. Netanyahu had the Israeli Armed Forces Chief of Staff accompanying him on his visit to Moscow this fall (shortly after the Russian bombing started), and after that the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces visited Tel Aviv for four days. Apparently they reached some sort of working understanding, so Israel doesn't fret when Russian bombers fly over swats of Israeli airspace, and Russia was cool when Israel killed the notorious Hezbollah murderer Samir Kuntar in Damascus (by a missile fired from a plane), and bombed a transport of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. BTW, the S-400 anti-aircraft system was deployed by Russia in Syria with explicit goal of protecting Russian armed forces, not Syrian airspace. Hopefully Russia and Israel also discussed the kinds of weapons Russia might give to Hezbollah, and the conditions attached; although when and if the Syrian state will be restored, Israel probably will have to deal with its Hezbollah problems in Lebanon, not in Syria.

You quite properly brought up the heirs of the Lvov pogrom perpetrators (and countless other atrocities), as people preferred by the Western policy makers to the evil Putin. Did you know, that the current Ukrainian Government has set the anniversary of establishment of UPA (the military organization under German operational command, which perpetrated the atrocities), as the official state holiday - the Day of the Defenders of Fatherland. Ukrainian President who signed that law was recently received in Israel on a state visit, and even visited the Yad Vashem, with a sombre facial expression.

[Matthew]

The Samantha Power Indicator is the most accurate measurement of developments in Syria. See https://twitter.com/AmbassadorPower/status/687797231924154369

The "humanitarian concerns" rise in direct proportion to rebel setbacks.

[Bob]

Sir:
Jordan is not likely to allow Israel to have an overt integrated or LNO presence at CENTCOM Forward-Jordan (CF-J) or anywhere else in Jordan.
However, there may have been a Jordanian policy change WRT Syria.
King Abdullah II went to Moscow to meet with Putin in late August, just prior to the Russian intervention in Syria, and then met with him again in Sochi in late November. There has been no Jordanian criticism of the Russian intervention, just concerns about the impact on the refugee situation.
Jordan is probably the largest per capita recipient of US assistance (after Israel...).
It is not clear to me what is occurring with the groups composing the "Southern Front"; i.e. the last hopes of the FSA...what ops they are doing; who is assisting them; and if Russia is refraining from targeting them.
While I think it is unlikely that Abdullah would gamble the monarchy over a relationship with Israel, it appears that Abdullah understand the ramifications of the Russian intervention, but may be continuing to have difficulties in getting the US, and perhaps even Gulf Arab allies to understand them.
Bob

[The Twisted Genius]

Things aren't going too well for IS up on the Turkish border according to Elijah J. Magnier. He reports that "Information from Al Mayadeen News saying “ISIS pulling out some troops from al-Bab toward Raqqa" while SAA and Hezbollah are 7km from the city." Since Al Mayadeen News is in Arabic, I'll leave it to one of our Arabists to verify this tidbit of information.

[turcopolier]

Bob

"there may have been a Jordanian policy change WRT Syria." It doesn't sound to me like there is any doubt. Are you still working at the Coca Cola plant? Write me off line please. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

We are supposed to accept such things as this:

http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/01/#

as the new Normal and the Height of Human Achievement and Enlightenment.

There is snow ball's chance in Hell that any one in Muslim World would consider such things as normal.

[mbrenner]

I believe it is time to accept that the Obama people are incapable of doing sound strategic analysis; hence, the prospect of their rethinking their haphazard approach to multiple interlocking problems in the Middle East is bleak. The one thing we can count on is Obama's aversion to any escalated conflict that involves American ground forces or risk of confrontation with Russia. In addition, were circumstances to emerge that offer the possibility of some sort of resolution on minimally acceptable terms, he will grab it - even if that entails a vigorous spin exercise to reconcile whatever it is with prior pronouncements. His preoccupation with legacy/memories/foundation for the next 30 years points strongly toward that judgment. From what we can infer, this is the conclusion Putin has reached. So Putin will proceed to do what it takes to create such circumstances guided by the dictates of prudence.

The Obama presidency is over for all practical intents and purposes. He has spent the 3 days since his plodding State of the Union travelling to Red states so as (as the White House press office says) hear directly from those in the country who disagree with him before he leaves office. Apparently, he hasn't heard enough abuse from the Republicans in and out of Congress over the past seven years or the vulgar declarations last night of how the candidates look forward to his "getting his ass out of the Oval Office." Obama is probably the weirdest personality in psychological terms who ever has held the office - something concealed by his seemingly masterful manner.

[Babak Makkinejad]

They were given a task by the Legitimate Authority - duly elected and seated - and they carried it out those orders.

You will have to go back and ask again: "What is the electorate's responsibility in all of this?"

Neocon etc. cannot be treated as the alibi of US and indeed of an entire politico-military alliance.

In regards to the putative alliance between the minority religions of Islam and Russia; such an alliance already has taken shape and is operating and I should think it will continue to do so for the duration of the Jihadi Wars - say a couple more decades.

Mind you, Russians have to periodically kick their allies in order to control their propensity to anarchic reactions and policies.

[bell]

b quote "Debka just wants to blame Abdullah and create trouble for him.
Why does anyone still regard them as a reliable source?" my thoughts exactly..

[turcopolier]

bell

I have tried endlessly to explain to the crowd here that information and sources must be evaluated separately. Too complicated for you? pl

[cynic]

In Britain they are coming to be known as 'gimmegrants'.

[Kim Sky]

WOW. Thanx for pointing this out!!!

There is a good possibility that Jordan will use this opportunity to do a Russian-spy-mission for the US? As Israeli aggression is NO joke when it comes to this region, I do agree with a bit of the hedging their bets idea.

[Alexey]

If pogroms were the thing that bothers them - they shouldn't have supported Ukrainian government since:

1) Jewish "area of settlement" in Tsarist Russia was in modern day Ukraine (without Donbass btw) and Belarus and pogroms were carried out by locals naturally. There is long time hatred to Jews in those parts.

2) Ukrainian participation in genocide of Jews during WWII.

Alas Ukrainian government that declares killers of Jews their national heroes (glossing over this part of their activities naturally) is a best friend of all the nulands in administration and around.

So nothing personal, just business. In whatever distorted way they understand this word.

[turcopolier]

All

I am assured by competent non-US authority that Israel was not allowed a presence in the Amman war room. In response I have deleted the paragraph in the post that dealt with that. pl