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02 December 2015

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BabelFish

Am I allowed to think that US Foreign Policy has been one long Rolling Charlie Fox since George Marshall left the scene? I hope so because, other than Korea, I sure as hell think that.

PirateLaddie

Who are they kidding? On a day-to-day basis, the most important folks in the world. Barry & his Girls.

Matthew

Who do they think they are kidding? pl

Us. Obama knows "we" as a country want to be deceived. Just as Cameron is pretending that bombing Syria--despite the Libyan fiasco--is about "protecting" the UK instead of earning more arms sales from the Gulfies.

Cameron Kelley

They're certainly not kidding the Iraqis. For some odd reason, many people in Iraq don't think the US is serious about fighting ISIS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iraqis-think-the-us-is-in-cahoots-with-isis-and-it-is-hurting-the-war/2015/12/01/d00968ec-9243-11e5-befa-99ceebcbb272_story.html

Emad

The American voter?

DC

The latest in an expanding list of things I thought I'd never see in my lifetime: Russia is leading the world to righteousness. Those guys are actually doing what we pretend we do!

I'd hazard a guess that the EU, Europe, others, have known about the illicit oil trade for some time now, but they've valued Turkey's strategic position more. I'd say their assessment has been wrong. Hopefully they change directions and cooperate with Russia on this one.

confusedponderer

Wonderful. That's Russia's Adlai Stevenson moment. Popcorn!

The depressing part is that the US must have indeed known it all along but preferred to be silent about it.

Musings:

I wonder what else the US prefers to be silent about - take for instance Ghouta and MH17. Would that not be be interesting to know?

I recall reading, but find no link atm, that the in the case of the shot down Su-24 some US spokesperson iirc mentioned satellite sensors picking up the heat signatures of launch and or hit of the downing. Indeed?

Assuming that was true, it would suggest the Obamaites may have very well been suppresing intel whenever it ran against 'impenetrable narratives', not just on IS.

In the best of worse cases it would suggest to me that for the Obamaites the requirements of Information Operations (read: Propaganda) trump reality based assessments. As far as they are concerned, they probably don't see themselves as supressing intelligence, but as simply controlling the message.

It is IMO very probable that there is continuity with Bush's unnamed Whitehouse oficial who spoke of 'creating new realities'. It is my impression that there is general acceptance in a bipartisan consensus on the need for 'perception management'.

Three scenarios based on the assumption of US knowledge and the demands 'perception management':

Ghouta:
The US knew the culprit was opposition in coop with the Turks, was essentially ready to go to war, but since the emphasis was on regime change it was ok to blame Assad anyway, even if the US would not act on that the red line the Turks enineered to be crossed. Obama's anger about 'being moved' may have played its part in keeping Obama from doing what even Kerry extected - bombing Syria.

MH17:
The US knew full well who shot down MH-17 but chose to spin the matter because the information war over Ukraine after the regime change made it attractive to blame the separatists, and Russia. Admitting, say, the guilt of allies would have bolstered the Russian case, and the US couldn't have that at a time they were pushing everybody to sanction Russia. And indeed, the downing was instrumental in getting the sanctions through. Quite an opportunity, and quite an incentive to keep quiet about whatever the US knew. The US silence on the matter is still deafening.

Turkey and IS:
The US knew full well that Erdogan was dealing with and supporting ISIS for a long time and extensively so. The US chose not to do anything about it, because they were happy with IS, the other Islamists slogging it out with Assad, slowly attriting him. As far as the US were concerned, they could 'manage' IS by JDAM if they went out of line, as in Kobane. As for Erdogan, they couldn't stop him, and they still needed him over Incirlic, so they kept quiet.

mac

Colonel,

What is stopping the Russians from calling a UNSC meeting and presenting the evidence a la Adlai Stevenson?

It seems they have the upper hand and could easily meet their burden of proof - wonder why they haven't already.

Take Care,
Mac

eakens

Unfortunately, the american populace.

Babak Makkinejad

All:

We were wrong about ISIS:

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/12/02-we-were-wrong-about-isis-williams

Lesly

Kidding? The left wing supporters that have been absent from D.C. protests. There is no good war unless it's my president's war.

http://www.alternet.org/world/chilling-video-shows-nato-member-state-greeting-and-providing-refuge-isis-militants

"A video that seemingly bolsters Russian claims of Turkish government complicity with the Islamic State, highlights the casual relations between the terror group and Turkish officials.

Turkey has been accused of being one of the main benefactors of the ISIS terror group, accused of providing logistics, financing and military hardware. These accusations are particularly startling as Turkey is a member of NATO, a collective security group obligated to go to war if a member state is attacked. It would be a seemingly dangerous proposition to allow a state that basically props up the Islamic State, which then uses the group as a geopolitical weapon, to be in such a strategically important group.

The amateur footage reportedly shows ISIS militants and Turkish border guards holding a relaxed conversation near the Syrian city of Kobane, according to the Daily Mail. The amateur footage, taken near Zarova Hill on the outskirts of Kobane, was uploaded to YouTube on October 28, 2014."

Kunuri

And I assert here once more, that border could not have been open for the last five years without the consent, knowledge, and benefit of someone, or something within the US government, but not necessarily "Barry & his Girls."

Erdogan and his gang are simply taking advantage of a business opportunity, regarding illegal oil trade, refugees as leverage with EU, and cross border contraband trade. I just don't buy the meme that RTE is a loose cannon, its only a cover, however it maybe true, utilized cleverly to protect him from accusations of being somebody's stooge. Nothing moves here in Turkey now without serious baksheesh, favor trading or feudal largesse for blind loyalty. It applies to international relations as well. They have conquered the language of public discourse, in true Goebbels fashion, so apathy and hopelessness within the other 50 percent of the country is prevalent. So what if the Russians have irrefutable proof, it will go nowhere.


robt willmann

This is starting to get pretty funny. One of the first things my grandfather taught me, when I followed him around as a small boy while he was tending to his cattle, is that you do not unnecessarily provoke cattle and horses. All creatures, great and small, respond negatively to such provocations, and as the old saying goes, "even a dog knows when it has been accidentally stumbled over or intentionally stepped on." So when Turkey, alone or in concert with others, shot down a Russian airplane, it again revealed this Law of Nature.

Here is the presentation to the press by the Russian military today about ISIS oil going into and through Turkey. The Russian Deputy Defense Minister, Anatoly Antonov, who does not mince words, starts out with a swift kick to Tayyip Erdogan's anatomy between his bladder and upper thighs. Then Gen. Antonov hands it off to others for a pretty good mulitmedia show--

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMA4B2ZnQ2o

Gen. Antonov concludes the program with more clear, blunt language. Beginning at 18 minuntes and 40 seconds, he refers to the journalists who showed Erdogan's lies and went to prison for it, and then he says that Turkish leaders would not retire Mr. Erdogan (make him resign), and that Erdogan would be allowed to stay on "even if his face was tarnished with stolen oil." From that English translation, Antonov was probably saying that Erdogan would not be forced to resign even if stolen oil was seen dripping off of his face!

What is very interesting and important is that the most hard-hitting language was used by the Deputy Defense Minister Antonov, and you can see from his manner of speech and demeanor that he is a serious person and earned the four stars on his shoulder. He promises that more information will be disclosed later.

Once the oil gets into to Turkey, it goes somewhere, and for that to happen, there is transportation, oil brokers and traders, money paid and exchanged, bank routing orders (SWIFT, anyone?), bank money transfers, and so forth. That is another story.

turcopolier

Robert Willman

As someone said here the Russians should call a UNSC meeting and display the evidence. pl

turcopolier

kunuri
Given the level of competition in the IC for the emperor's attention it would be very difficult to hide something like this from the president. pl

Kunuri

Once the oil gets to the ports, a significant portion of it is transported to Israel with tankers belonging to the little fleet Erdogan's son Bilal has acquired through generous state bank loans, private contributions and foundation grants which he leads.

Kunuri

Then he would be complacent, which would confuse me to no end and cause me to regret my votes for him and all the cheering I have been doing for him over the years in Europe and here in Turkey. Something as small as turning a blind eye to that open border for whatever reason has caused unimaginable misery and death.

Former 11B

It was Karl Rove who was the unnamed source who had the "making a new reality" conversation. The heat flash signature was in relation to the Russian Airbus incident over Egypt. Which definitely begs the question "If you saw that then how can you deny not knowing about MH 17?"

J

Colonel,

Netanyahu admitted yesterday publicly that Israel has been operating inside Syria.

German BND has been keeping a watchful eye on the Saudis, and are seeing a shift to 'impulsive' foreign policies. Conservative estimates of the Saudi budget deficit are at $120 billion plus.

And Russia and Syria have been holding joint force training exercises to prepare for their upcoming securing of the rebel-held Idib. The joint exercises have been held in Latakia's northern area as it is similar terrain to Ibid province. Ibid is home to a number of rebel movements (Army of Conquest, Al-Nusra) excluding the Islamic State group.

Mike

France24 20130422

The EU lifted an oil embargo on Syria Monday in a move to boost economic support for the rebels seeking to overthrow President Bashar al Assad. The bloc will allow crude exports from rebel territory and EU investments in the country's oil industry.

http://www.france24.com/en/20130422-eu-lifts-embargo-syrian-oil-exports-investment

Ishmael Zechariah

CP,
re: "As for Erdogan, they couldn't stop him, and they still needed him over Incirlic, so they kept quiet."
Perhaps they own him and did not wish to stop him? Can you discount this hypothesis with a sound argument?
Ishmael Zechariah

Brunswick

Col., Mac,

Why should Russia make it's case at the UNSC,

The position of three of the "veto" members, Britain, France and the U.S., is that "first, Assad must go, then "we" can defeat ISIS, and until then, ISIS is only to be "degraded" when it attacks anti-Assad forces or Iraq".

The position of 5 of the ten "elected" members, Spain, New Zealand, Jordan, Lithuania and Nigeria, is the same.

Of the remaining 5 "elected" members, only Venezuela's vote is not for "sale".

So, a Russian presentation to the UNSC will not result in a Resolution, sanctions, or even get to a "vote", and will simply wind up
in the "unread" minutes of the meeting, and create far less publicity or "action" than a generic press conference.

Jack

Sir

The only people who are being fooled are us the ordinary citizens. But. ... that's because we choose to be fooled.

This situation among others including the lack of investigation and prosecution of Wall St bankers is a failure of the left in general and the Democrats in particular. They should get off their high horse as they are no different than the right and the Republicans. Obama like the Clintons is devious. Always blowing smoke up our ass. The Borg rules.

Haralambos

This incident is one of many over the years here in the Eastern Mediterranean: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/12/02/six-turkish-jet-fighters-violated-greek-air-space-on-tuesday/

Here is a Russian response to this: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/12/02/sergey-lavrov-greek-pilots-have-shown-great-restraint/

This is the result of one encounter in this type of probing in 2006: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/1519302/Turkish-and-Greek-fighter-jets-collide-over-Aegean-Sea.html

Tyler

Turkey's economy is going to get wrecked, Russia must have been sitting on those photos for a while to have the ability to release them so quickly, and S400 launchers are in Syria now.

I think the screws are just beginning to get applied to Erdogan.

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