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16 December 2015

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William R. Cumming

IMO Climate Change never factored into fossil fuel consumption rates and Peak Oil theory until very recently if even now!

Follow the METHANE!

Charles Michael

this comment was adressed to Bobo.

Bobo

I appreciate the lesson but you realize that your heading in the direction of Population Control which will occur by measures that are well discussed in this blog.

Babak Makkinejad

Greenhouse gases are not the major cause of global warming; over the last 2 million years - based on core sample data from various parts of the world - there have periods with average temperatures higher than what the contemporary Global-Warming-Alarmists project.

You guys can always look at India and learn what "sustainable development" really means.

And please take a real look at a world without the internal combustion engine.

Babak Makkinejad

Infanticide was the preferred method of dealing with unwanted children all over the world; specially for those wretched savages that did not have the benefit of accumulated Knowledge of the Europeans - the Eskimos, the American Indians, the Indians, the Arabs, Aborigines of Australia, the Chinese. They killed the girls mostly.

JJackson

On second thoughts I would like to amend that to never based on.
Let x= total planetary fossil reserve.

Start
x=x-1
If x>0 goto Start else
Print "This planet has nothing left you can extract.”
End

This has no other exit unless you can find a way to import more X from an extra-planetary source or use another energy supply to create Hydrocarbons.
NB that I did not limit this to oil. This applies to any non renewable resource including even fresh water which, counter-intuitively is also fixed (1.1 x 10^8m^3/year), the deficit is being masked by excessive use of archaic aquifers and lowering of the water table, in refreshed ground water, by irrigation wells.
Fresh Water, Land/Food and Energy form a resource triangle in which each are interchangeable - to some degree - and which we, can and do, balance using bio-fuels, desalination, fertilizer(5% of all natural gas goes into Nitrates) and the like.

Babak Makkinejad

"Prejudice" is an opinion that does take facts into account.

"Faith" is an opinion that is neither supported nor is contradicted by facts.

Rd.

So, can fossil fuels be used as a source of energy in outer space????

If not, then the more the reason to consider other sources of energy, unless men want to be condemned to this planet for ever!!!!

different clue

Babak Makkinejad,

The Eco-NAZIs and Environmental Weenies and assorted shriveled-up-weak-minded pinko liberals may be offended by your comment, but the earth does not care. There is a saying . . . you can't bullshit the ocean. It isn't listening, you dig?

Reality is the stuff that stays real, no matter how hard one wishes it away, or prays it away, or waves it away, or deconstructs it away. People will do whatever they do, and systems will respond however they respond.

Babak Makkinejad

I quite like it over here.

Anyway, Man cannot live on a planet that does not have a moon like Luna; I do not think human fetuses would be viable.

charly

I miss Victorian England. They used infanticide on a massive scale and i assume that that is also true of the rest of Europe. Victorian England is also so recent that i would claim than North American native people didn't exist anymore as people but only as an (under)class of Americans so the benefit of accumulated Knowledge of the Europeans didn't even exist.

charly

Sustainable development and India which its overuse of water shouldn't be put in the same sentence but i think you use it as code word for very poor. Not that the very poor ever life a very sustainable way, just one which uses very little energy.

Bobo

Without getting into too much detail. In 1973 there was 12 MMD of petroleum supply of which 9 mmd was domestic and 3 mmd was imports while last week there was a 16 mmd of supply, 11 mmd domestic and 5 mmd of imports. Numbers are rough but reasonably close.
Oil prices are elastic (what goes up must come down) and we will be back over $100 barrel but as we have learned we will use less at those prices and more at present day prices. What is presently driving prices down is contained in the ME as we have scared them and they are pumping as much as they can to drive the Frackers out of business. So in line with this blog look forward to higher prices and further chaos in the ME.

JJackson

Fully agree.
This is from a thread I wrote on another site in 2010.
"We are currently using fresh water at a rate beyond that at which it is being produced. This is only possible as we are draining fossil water aquifers to make up the difference. The scale of this problem is being masked by a one-time increase in glacial flows into the rivers whose basins’ provide the food for a large chunk of the worlds populations. These include the Mekong, Ganges, Yellow, Yangtze and Brahmaputra all of which rely on the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau for seasonal stabilisation. Current estimates put China’s 2030 water need at 25% above supply (and 20% is so polluted it not even suitable for agricultural use) and for India this becomes 50% and India is already very reliant on its non renewable aquifers."
It is part of a series of posts on Water, Population and, more relevant, to this thread one on Peak Phosphorous which is very mush analogous to Peak Oil. Another of the posts includes a look at a case study of India's water problems and lots of links to relevant data. I hope it is useful to any of you interested in this whole sustainability thingy.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/92163-some-thoughts-mainly-about-water-and-population

different clue

Babak Makkinejad,

I agree. Life can be good here on TerraLuna Prime.

Babak Makkinejad

"systems will respond however they respond" yes, also known and Le Chatelier's Principle.

The Earth is a system in dynamic equilibrium and as it warms up - for the most part due to astronomical causes - it will adjust to maintain homeostasis.

I think that to the Cult of Shoah must be now added the Cult of Global Warming to which we must all pay penance by discarding our lovely internal combustion engines.

Babak Makkinejad

You are conflating activities that were considered crimes under English Law with that which was accepted and common practice.

The Quran actually mentions "girls buried alive" by the Bedouin tribes.

Babak Makkinejad

The very poor are using dung for cooking and they can sustain their miserable lives (at less than 1 dollar a day ) because petrol as well as oil as well as chemical fertilizers are subsidized by the Indian government.

But do not let facts confuse you, go ahead and wish for a world without fossil fuels and watch 500 million souls slowly perish in India.

Babak Makkinejad

Build nuclear-powered desalination plants, teach Indians to use drip agriculture techniques, build reservoirs, etc.

There is superior engineering knowledge available today as well as better materials; terra cotta versus plastic water jugs.

India's problems are largely not technical, they are political.

different clue

Babak Makkinejad,

As a lay amateur science buff, I remain impressed with manmade global warming theory for now, for reasons I have mentioned before. Hopefully non-emotional thinkers and analysts can avoid making a cult out of it. After all, the Shoah was a real event with or without the cultic observance behavior around it, and global warming is a real process with or without the cultic observance behavior around that also.

But there will be time enough to discuss global warming another day. Global warming isn't going anywhere. In fact, it is just getting started. Hopefully the internal combustion engines can be restricted from frivolous uses so we can keep the essential ones for essential uses.
Society will have its nasty fights about what those are.

JJackson

Babak there have been enough SST threads on climate change and peak oil for me to realise that we are going to have to agree to differ on these issues. That said reservoirs do not change the math they just change the location of the water which is a big problem in its own right. There are already a number of dangerous disputes over water drawing rights in the worlds major rivers which cross national boundaries. Drip irrigation helps but only marginally. In the absence of Fusion Fission based reactors come with their own problems - waste disposal, safety issues and nuclear proliferation - you, of all people, should be aware of Iran's little difficulties caused by wanting to develop a domestic nuclear industry and fuel cycle.

different clue

One force keeping the oil price low appears to be Saudi selling into a weak market to keep the price low, perhaps to break and bankrupt a meaningful number of unconventional oil producers and keep their oil unpumped and shut in for some years to come.
I have read that another force keeping the price of oil low is the growth-slowdown in China and the slight shrinking-down of Chinese exports to China's target markets as people in those target markets feel a little poorer and buy a little less Chinese stuff. A while ago Naked Capitalism ran a post about China's recent economic difficulties and how those difficulties have led to China buying less oil, and therefor contributing less to keeping prices up as KSA contributes more to pushing prices down. Maybe people here who know a lot of bussiness and economics can say if this article and its graphs and charts teach and illuminate or just dazzle and confuse. They seemed impressive to me but I don't know enough to know for sure. Here is the link.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/11/ilargi-the-great-fall-of-china-started-at-least-4-years-ago.html

Rd.

Babak Makkinejad said in reply to Rd....

"I quite like it over here.
I do not think human fetuses would be viable."

If men were to be different than the animals (in their thinking) then they are destined to discover the space above. [Americans had that chance. Unfortunately they blew it in lieu of waring / shock and awe entertainment]

What is the point of gaining knowledge? to understand the unknown! and your are welcomed to stay and keep warm......

and for your second concern, it presumes there is no likelihood of another earth 'like' planet out there!! and were is your imagination man???? is it stuck in the Seljuk time frame?

Babak Makkinejad

Thank you for your comments.

I completely disagree with your implied belief in nuclear fusion; it is as impractical now as it was in 1950s since the materials that could withstand the radiation damage of the confinement vessel do not exist - nor do they exist even theoretically. You cannot build a fusion reactor power station and then expect to stop it every 6 months to replace the walls of confinement vessel.

This is not a problem of ignition in plasma physics, it is an insurmountable problem of material science; just as the space elevator's problem is one of material science and not basic physics.

On the other hand, the breeder reactor approach with fission reactors can keep us powered for millennia.

Water shortages have hit many areas of the world - Iran included. Part of it has been due to the persistent drought for over 20 years from Hindu Kush to the Mediterranean Sea, part of it had to do with wasteful agricultural practices such as farming rice in Isfahan basin.

When people deplete the fossil water, then they would be forced to alter their behavior and practices. They will become more clever, less stupid, and more efficient.

Babak Makkinejad

I think it is cheaper and more efficient to increase the pleasantly habitable surface area of this planet rather than spend an inordinate amount of effort into getting to some Godforsaken planet somewhere that only approximates the conditions of Antarctica or Gobi Desert.

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