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15 November 2015

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b

"If the French invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty we must accept that appeal and go to war alongside them. "

That is not what Art 5 says: ".. if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, .."

"assists ... as it deems necessary" does not mean to send ground forces and to repeat the foolish reaction to 9/11.

This was a rather small attack (in historic measurement) by mostly a group of French homegrown terrorists, not a war of aggression by a full fledged nation state. Answering that with more wars in the Middle East will only lead to more such incidents.

Support Syria and Iraq in their fight with whatever they need but let them lead.
Read the riot act to Turkey and the Gulfies. Block the borders and the financial transfers.

turcopolier

b

You Germans need do nothing. You are going to be fully occupied with your internal jihadi menace. IMO the US should respond to a French invocation of the alliance with all force necessary. War is a mistake when you adopt the wrong objectives as we did in Iraq and in the futile COIN effort in Afghanistan. Fighting the Nusra and IS jihadis is quite different. pl

BabelFish

Yes on all that, Pat.

Some thoughts on the home crowd. Who starts telling the American people the truth (other than SST committee members)? Who prepares them for the epiphany that the KSA,the best buddies of 5 Deferment Dick, are the fountainhead of all of this? Who has the testosterone to explain that the banks in NYC and London need to be brutally pushed into ending their profit making support of the money flows that fund all the Wahhabi jihadists?

I haven't seen that man or woman or group of them that would do that, outside of this band of correspondents. I can't imagine our political system producing such (and that includes the MSM).

Patrick Bahzad

Pat,

Good summary, I think today was the first "bushism" I heard from El-Jebbe, when he said Syrian Christians were facing genocide both from ISIS and from Assad. Someone should tell the Assyrian Christian Militias who are fighting side by side with the SAA, I'm afraid they didn't get that memo !

Regarding the Syrian refugee passport, I suspect this is one of those poison arrows that ISIS is real clever using to foster their agenda: spread suspicion towards Syrian refugees in Europe, create a hostile climate, and then exploit it for their propaganda, telling everybody how Muslims are unwelcome in Europe ... and then they will invite them to come back to their great Islamic State.

Patrick Bahzad

I wonder why people think military action necessarily means invading Syria, or Iraq.

Regarding German involvement, I think nobody anywhere is expecting much from them unfortunately. Their public opinion has become so schyzophrenic that their military operates mostly as a sort of Red Cross with helmets.

I visited their camp in Kunduz and was actually embarassed for them. They don't have a fight left in them and they're going to have enough on their plate with the million or so refugees that they want to take in.

The Twisted Genius

pl,

I broke down this morning and watched some of the news shows. Absolutely no mention of Saudi Arabia or Turkey as sources of the problem. Wasn't at all surprised, just disgusted. Since neither you nor I will become emperors of the world, I desperately hope the R+6 coalition and now France will destroy IS in Syria and Iraq. And anyone who strips the Gulfies of their spending money is a world savior in my book.

Aka

dear all,
about the Paris attacks. It is said that they resemble the Mumbai attacks that occurred in 2008 (however, that group didn't wore any suicide belts and one got captured). It is said that all the attackers in Paris wore a suicide belt and it seems the resulting explosions destroyed their heads.

Group of militants all wearing suicide belts (thus capture-proof and surrender-proof) going on rampage far behind the enemy lines was a concept I was familiar with sometime back. But it wasn't something I have heard frequently elsewhere.

Terrorists does indeed seems to be evolving. Like I said about the Thalys train attack, can't always count on a incompetent terrorist.

And public statements about ISIS seems to be critical, all those juicy weapons deals must mean something. It would not help anyone if ISIS gets replaced by a another "moderately" jihadi group.

Stonevendor

IS seems very likely to be involved in the Paris bloodbath. Though I suspect it will be days before we have actual corroboration. The Syrian passport is still a bit of a mystery. Was it a fake? Ha it been stolen? An why would a suicide bomber carry `a passport on his final mission? Was that a statement?

I don't doubt that the US, France and Britain, along with whoever else wants to participate could start in Iraq and push westward killing or capturing jihadis as they go. Meanwhile the Russians and their friends push from west to east -- a mirror image of the war with Germany. And when it is all over don't repeat the problem of Guantanamo. Turn the captured jihadis over to the Syrian government. Fine. Then What? The pot of Sunni-Shia conflict will be still be simmering. The Saudis will still be funding madrassas and supporting salafist proponents. In one way WW II was much easier. You knew when you had won.

James Doleman

"* Erdogan's program for a Muslim invasion by inundation of Europe must be ended. Send them back to their home countries. "

Send Syrian refugees back into the hands of ISIS?

Jack

Amen, Sir.

FB Ali

Col Lang,

The strategy you advocate is a good one. It is unfortunate that there are too many vested interests to let it happen.

If there is anything that I would add to your prescription, it is this: curb the actions of Saudi Arabia and the Gulfies that support and succour IS and other Jihadis.

J Villain

Turkey has tried to play the article 5 game by trying to get themselves attacked. NATO didn't bite. Georgia started a war with Russia and NATO did nothing. NATO and Russia signed an agreement with Ukraine at the end of the cold war that bound both side to protect Ukraine in the event of an attack by either side in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons. (who will ever do that again?). First the US over threw the government in Ukraine to keep them from signing a trade deal with Russia and then Russia invaded. NATO?

Here is my question. Is NATO even about defence any more or is it just an outlaw motorcycle club for tear assing around the Middle East?

The Beaver

Colonel,

About the passport or ID:
I thought, as told by various journalists this side of the pond, that once the Western-born Jihadis cross the border into Syria to join ISIS and swear allegiance to their cause, that they have to burn their passport and take a new Arabic nom de guerre, name which they will be known until death. We have seen that example from a couple of Somali-Canadians from Alberta who joined the rebels which turned out to be ISIS and who got killed last year. Same M.O. for a French (pure laine, non-immigrant) who was killed in action and someone left a msg that "nom-de-guerre" has passed away on his father's mobile. It was only three months later that he found out that the msg was about his son.
Thus I am wondering whether this is a new M.O. from ISIS- keep your birthday name and we will know whether you will die a "martyr" for the cause or taken prisoner ( to be killed later for failing).

Babak Makkinejad

Col. Lang:

I think the political program for the post ISIS War ought to include two additional items:

1 - Israel-Palestinian 99-year long cease fire.
2 - Dismantlement of Iran Containment Strategy by NATO states.

J Villain

One of the topics on the table at the G20 is terrorism financing. I assume that means stopping it but with the G20 it could go either way. With all the permanent members of the UNSC in the room it should be no problem to come up sanctions against sponsors of terrorism like what was used against Iran. But before that happens the US has to change it's mind about the idea of "Good Terrorists" and there are no signs of that happening.


J Villain

>"Our borders are long and not really secure. IMO the Canadian border is even more insecure than that with Mexico."

This negates the fact that North America now uses perimeter security. So the US gets to veto any one entering North America including Canada & Mexico. Does that mean that no bad people ever get in? No. Bad people fly right into the US on occasion as well. But what it does mean is that you don't just breeze into Canada and then walk over the border. They meet the same security checks in Canada that they would in the US. I hope you aren't inferring the BS about the 911 attackers coming from Canada.

turcopolier

J villain

I gave you my opinion. If you don't like it that is unfortunate. I did not say anything about 9/11. Don't be stupid. pl

Castellio

We used to be able to follow Hillary Man Leveritt at goingtotehran.com, but that site seems to have been dormant for the last 4 months.

Is she regularly posting elsewhere?

turcopolier

James Doleman

Send them back to the territory controlled by the Syrian government. pl

turcopolier

stonevender

"The pot of Sunni-Shia conflict will be still be simmering" That pot will continue to simmer as it has for 1400 years. pl

eakens

Agreed. Send them back, hand them weapons and tell them to take their country back form Daesh

Babak Makkinejad

Last December John Kerry asked and received pledges from the Gulfies to prevent financial aide to ISIS and other such formations.

I expect the Arabs to tell others what they want to hear during the G20 Summit; the Hawala mechanism will continue to operate without any restriction nevertheless.

Jack

TTG, Sir

The one good thing to come out of Bernanke's free money is shale oil exploitation. That coupled with the Chinese seeming inability to continually ramp up their debt load has significantly lowered the income stream of the Gulfies and Saudi's. And of course the Russians and Iranians and Norwegians too. The Saudi's are now running massive deficits and are being forced to sell their sovereign wealth fund assets to fund continued acquiescence of their population.

Thomas

"And anyone who strips the Gulfies of their spending money is a world savior in my book."

In relation to your War Declaration post, bill these muther-effers for clean up and new construction needed in Syria and Yemen.

Herodotus

Colonel Lang,

Correct me if I am wrong. But IMHO the French need to be very measured in their response. The last numbers I have seen there are some 6 million Muslims in population. With some 10 to 15,000 extremists running around the country. French security forces since the January shooting have intercepted some six terror plots and that does not include the high speed train incident. The issue the French have to be concerned with as they plot their response is making sure that the response does not end up overwhelm their internal security forces because and again IMO these attacks are far from over...


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