Some thoughts on Paris, Article 5 and jihadism

I offer some thoughts on the situation:

- The NATO Treaty is US law.  If the French invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty we must accept that appeal and go to war alongside them.  If we do not, then NATO is finished.  If our response to the Article 5 request requires American ground troops, so be it.  Fish or cut bait.

- The politics of 2016 has reduced the statements of the various candidates to gibberish in which they spout slogans at each other seeking the attention of the Borg and the ignorant.  An example would be the statement just now made to Jake Tapper by Jeb Bush that the Syrian government is as much a threat to Syrian Christians as is the Islamic state and the other Sunni jihadis.  Of course, anyone who knows anything about Syria knows that the large Christian population views the Syrian government as their sole protectors from the jihadis.  Jeb or el-jebe as he is sometimes known in the Latino world also "thinks"  that a US no-fly zone in Syria as a grand idea.  IS does not have an air force so such a no-fly zone would be intended to prevent Syria air force and  Russian air force intrusion.  This would mean war with Russia.  Where does he get such "thoughts?"  He gets them from the same neocons who were his dumb-dumb brother's advisers and who seduced and lied us all into invading Iraq as part of their grand scheme to reduce the countries of the ME to chaos. 

- Obama is in Turkey conferring with Erdogan, the Saudi king and the emir of Qatar. as to how to combat IS.  This is a joke!  All of these are sponsors of IS and the other Sunni jihadi movements.  Senator Lindsey Graham just told Tapper that we (the US) should lead an army of Arabs and THE TURKS into the fight.  Of course, Graham is a wholly owned property of Izrul.  Whatever mind "he" has in regard to the ME was carefully sculpted by them while writing upon the tabula rasa that was his brain before they began their work.   But even "he" should know that Erdogan's Turkey is an ally of IS and will never, never participate in a serious move against IS.  Actually, Kemalist Turkey is dead and will probably not be seen again. 

- At least one (probably three) of the Paris attackers probably entered Europe as part of the migrant flow that passed  through Erdogan's Turkey.  One man was registered by the Greeks government on Leros and then was again registered in a Croatian refugee shelter.  The really operative part of this tale is that this or these people traveled through Turkey unmolested by the Turkish police and security services.  I once lived in Turkey and even then these services were ubiquitous and aggressive.  So, IMO Erdogan has passed these people through and sent them on their mission.  Just look at his face as he walks around at Antalya.  That is the cat who has eaten the canary.

- People who think that the US homeland is not threatened by a Paris type event are wrong.  We have large resident populations who are disaffected and subject to jihadi recruitment.  Such an attack does not require many strikers.  We have tough police but the possibility of jihadi success is always there.  Our borders are long and not really secure.  IMO the Canadian border is even more insecure than that with Mexico.  There are a lot of places in northern New England and New York state where you can easily walk across the border between border entry points and then be picked up by someone waiting for you.  The US is saturated with firearms and the materials with which to make explosives.   The pattern in Paris was evidently local French and Belgian national jihadis born of Muslim immigrants combined with reinforcements sent in as stiffening for the home team.   This is a viable model for attacks in the US.  A question for me is why the attackers carried their travel documents into the attacks.  Was this a search for recognition? That could be.

- What would my strategy be if I were emperor of the world?

    * Europe must put back up its border controls.

    * Erdogan's program for a Muslim invasion by inundation of Europe must be ended.  Send them back to their home countries. 

    * Accept the idea that in a UN supervised election Assad may win.  Hilary Mann Leveritt pointed out yesterday that in an election a couple of years ago that included the Syrian refugee diaspora, Assad won.  The Borgist TV anchor nearly had apoplexy.

    * Defeat and destroy IS in Syria and Iraq.  To do this we must accept the cooperation of all who wish fight IS and any other jihadis.  That would include Russia, Hizbullah and Iran.

    pl

Comments

[b]

"If the French invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty we must accept that appeal and go to war alongside them. "

That is not what Art 5 says: ".. if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, .."

"assists ... as it deems necessary" does not mean to send ground forces and to repeat the foolish reaction to 9/11.

This was a rather small attack (in historic measurement) by mostly a group of French homegrown terrorists, not a war of aggression by a full fledged nation state. Answering that with more wars in the Middle East will only lead to more such incidents.

Support Syria and Iraq in their fight with whatever they need but let them lead.
Read the riot act to Turkey and the Gulfies. Block the borders and the financial transfers.

[turcopolier]

b

You Germans need do nothing. You are going to be fully occupied with your internal jihadi menace. IMO the US should respond to a French invocation of the alliance with all force necessary. War is a mistake when you adopt the wrong objectives as we did in Iraq and in the futile COIN effort in Afghanistan. Fighting the Nusra and IS jihadis is quite different. pl

[BabelFish]

Yes on all that, Pat.

Some thoughts on the home crowd. Who starts telling the American people the truth (other than SST committee members)? Who prepares them for the epiphany that the KSA,the best buddies of 5 Deferment Dick, are the fountainhead of all of this? Who has the testosterone to explain that the banks in NYC and London need to be brutally pushed into ending their profit making support of the money flows that fund all the Wahhabi jihadists?

I haven't seen that man or woman or group of them that would do that, outside of this band of correspondents. I can't imagine our political system producing such (and that includes the MSM).

[Patrick Bahzad]

Pat,

Good summary, I think today was the first "bushism" I heard from El-Jebbe, when he said Syrian Christians were facing genocide both from ISIS and from Assad. Someone should tell the Assyrian Christian Militias who are fighting side by side with the SAA, I'm afraid they didn't get that memo !

Regarding the Syrian refugee passport, I suspect this is one of those poison arrows that ISIS is real clever using to foster their agenda: spread suspicion towards Syrian refugees in Europe, create a hostile climate, and then exploit it for their propaganda, telling everybody how Muslims are unwelcome in Europe ... and then they will invite them to come back to their great Islamic State.

[Patrick Bahzad]

I wonder why people think military action necessarily means invading Syria, or Iraq.

Regarding German involvement, I think nobody anywhere is expecting much from them unfortunately. Their public opinion has become so schyzophrenic that their military operates mostly as a sort of Red Cross with helmets.

I visited their camp in Kunduz and was actually embarassed for them. They don't have a fight left in them and they're going to have enough on their plate with the million or so refugees that they want to take in.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

I broke down this morning and watched some of the news shows. Absolutely no mention of Saudi Arabia or Turkey as sources of the problem. Wasn't at all surprised, just disgusted. Since neither you nor I will become emperors of the world, I desperately hope the R+6 coalition and now France will destroy IS in Syria and Iraq. And anyone who strips the Gulfies of their spending money is a world savior in my book.

[Aka]

dear all,
about the Paris attacks. It is said that they resemble the Mumbai attacks that occurred in 2008 (however, that group didn't wore any suicide belts and one got captured). It is said that all the attackers in Paris wore a suicide belt and it seems the resulting explosions destroyed their heads.

Group of militants all wearing suicide belts (thus capture-proof and surrender-proof) going on rampage far behind the enemy lines was a concept I was familiar with sometime back. But it wasn't something I have heard frequently elsewhere.

Terrorists does indeed seems to be evolving. Like I said about the Thalys train attack, can't always count on a incompetent terrorist.

And public statements about ISIS seems to be critical, all those juicy weapons deals must mean something. It would not help anyone if ISIS gets replaced by a another "moderately" jihadi group.

[Stonevendor]

IS seems very likely to be involved in the Paris bloodbath. Though I suspect it will be days before we have actual corroboration. The Syrian passport is still a bit of a mystery. Was it a fake? Ha it been stolen? An why would a suicide bomber carry `a passport on his final mission? Was that a statement?

I don't doubt that the US, France and Britain, along with whoever else wants to participate could start in Iraq and push westward killing or capturing jihadis as they go. Meanwhile the Russians and their friends push from west to east -- a mirror image of the war with Germany. And when it is all over don't repeat the problem of Guantanamo. Turn the captured jihadis over to the Syrian government. Fine. Then What? The pot of Sunni-Shia conflict will be still be simmering. The Saudis will still be funding madrassas and supporting salafist proponents. In one way WW II was much easier. You knew when you had won.

[James Doleman]

"* Erdogan's program for a Muslim invasion by inundation of Europe must be ended. Send them back to their home countries. "

Send Syrian refugees back into the hands of ISIS?

[Jack]

Amen, Sir.

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

The strategy you advocate is a good one. It is unfortunate that there are too many vested interests to let it happen.

If there is anything that I would add to your prescription, it is this: curb the actions of Saudi Arabia and the Gulfies that support and succour IS and other Jihadis.

[J Villain]

Turkey has tried to play the article 5 game by trying to get themselves attacked. NATO didn't bite. Georgia started a war with Russia and NATO did nothing. NATO and Russia signed an agreement with Ukraine at the end of the cold war that bound both side to protect Ukraine in the event of an attack by either side in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons. (who will ever do that again?). First the US over threw the government in Ukraine to keep them from signing a trade deal with Russia and then Russia invaded. NATO?

Here is my question. Is NATO even about defence any more or is it just an outlaw motorcycle club for tear assing around the Middle East?

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

About the passport or ID:
I thought, as told by various journalists this side of the pond, that once the Western-born Jihadis cross the border into Syria to join ISIS and swear allegiance to their cause, that they have to burn their passport and take a new Arabic nom de guerre, name which they will be known until death. We have seen that example from a couple of Somali-Canadians from Alberta who joined the rebels which turned out to be ISIS and who got killed last year. Same M.O. for a French (pure laine, non-immigrant) who was killed in action and someone left a msg that "nom-de-guerre" has passed away on his father's mobile. It was only three months later that he found out that the msg was about his son.
Thus I am wondering whether this is a new M.O. from ISIS- keep your birthday name and we will know whether you will die a "martyr" for the cause or taken prisoner ( to be killed later for failing).

[Babak Makkinejad]

Col. Lang:

I think the political program for the post ISIS War ought to include two additional items:

1 - Israel-Palestinian 99-year long cease fire.
2 - Dismantlement of Iran Containment Strategy by NATO states.

[J Villain]

One of the topics on the table at the G20 is terrorism financing. I assume that means stopping it but with the G20 it could go either way. With all the permanent members of the UNSC in the room it should be no problem to come up sanctions against sponsors of terrorism like what was used against Iran. But before that happens the US has to change it's mind about the idea of "Good Terrorists" and there are no signs of that happening.

[J Villain]

>"Our borders are long and not really secure. IMO the Canadian border is even more insecure than that with Mexico."

This negates the fact that North America now uses perimeter security. So the US gets to veto any one entering North America including Canada & Mexico. Does that mean that no bad people ever get in? No. Bad people fly right into the US on occasion as well. But what it does mean is that you don't just breeze into Canada and then walk over the border. They meet the same security checks in Canada that they would in the US. I hope you aren't inferring the BS about the 911 attackers coming from Canada.

[turcopolier]

J villain

I gave you my opinion. If you don't like it that is unfortunate. I did not say anything about 9/11. Don't be stupid. pl

[Castellio]

We used to be able to follow Hillary Man Leveritt at goingtotehran.com, but that site seems to have been dormant for the last 4 months.

Is she regularly posting elsewhere?

[turcopolier]

James Doleman

Send them back to the territory controlled by the Syrian government. pl

[turcopolier]

stonevender

"The pot of Sunni-Shia conflict will be still be simmering" That pot will continue to simmer as it has for 1400 years. pl

[eakens]

Agreed. Send them back, hand them weapons and tell them to take their country back form Daesh

[Babak Makkinejad]

Last December John Kerry asked and received pledges from the Gulfies to prevent financial aide to ISIS and other such formations.

I expect the Arabs to tell others what they want to hear during the G20 Summit; the Hawala mechanism will continue to operate without any restriction nevertheless.

[Jack]

TTG, Sir

The one good thing to come out of Bernanke's free money is shale oil exploitation. That coupled with the Chinese seeming inability to continually ramp up their debt load has significantly lowered the income stream of the Gulfies and Saudi's. And of course the Russians and Iranians and Norwegians too. The Saudi's are now running massive deficits and are being forced to sell their sovereign wealth fund assets to fund continued acquiescence of their population.

[Thomas]

"And anyone who strips the Gulfies of their spending money is a world savior in my book."

In relation to your War Declaration post, bill these muther-effers for clean up and new construction needed in Syria and Yemen.

[Herodotus]

Colonel Lang,

Correct me if I am wrong. But IMHO the French need to be very measured in their response. The last numbers I have seen there are some 6 million Muslims in population. With some 10 to 15,000 extremists running around the country. French security forces since the January shooting have intercepted some six terror plots and that does not include the high speed train incident. The issue the French have to be concerned with as they plot their response is making sure that the response does not end up overwhelm their internal security forces because and again IMO these attacks are far from over...