By Patrick BAHZAD
We are at war now, says the French press ! No, we are not at war now ... We have been at war for some time already, not a conventional war, but a war nonetheless.
The trouble is, lots of people in the West in general, and in France in particular, didn't know or didn't want to know this uncomfortable truth, and a number of so called "analysts" and "experts" refused to acknowledge it, even after the January attacks on "Charlie Hebdo".
Earlier this year, I wrote a piece on SST "WRITING ON THE WALL: The significance of recent trends and patterns in Jihadi terrorism". Now, I realize I may sound like those "told you so" armchair strategists, but I want to warn again - like others - about the dangers our societies are exposed to. These threats are complex and just going after potential accomplices, or their backers, won't cut it.
This is now everybody's business. Most of us however have forgotten what it feels like to be targeted in our streets. Well, it is time to remember. France has never been at peace for more than 60 years and it definitely looks like that record is not going to be broken !
Earlier today, the French President said that we would "have no mercy for those responsible". I hope he means it ... The enemy, who will have heard these words, will relish the challenge. Showing no mercy is not a problem for them, they haven't shown any thus far. But are we ready for such a fight ?
Time to have a good look in the mirror and brace ourselves for things to come. This is only the beginning and we should not be afraid to confront that reality. There can be no turning back and no escaping this time !
One thing NATO states can do is to get out of the way of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq, YPG, and others who are fighting ISIS.
I understand that Russian resupply flights have been detouring through Iran and Iraq to reach Syria because a number of EU or NATO states have denied them over flight privileges.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 15 November 2015 at 02:35 AM
Yeah, he hurt my feelings actually ...
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 15 November 2015 at 04:24 AM
no worries, you're welcome.
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 15 November 2015 at 06:14 AM
Patrick
Ok, I see now where you are coming from. Thanks.
Posted by: Wyoming | 15 November 2015 at 10:11 AM
All,
France is now paying a price
The Neocons – Masters of Chaos
By VNN on October 19, 2014
The neocons and their “liberal interventionist” junior partners have kept the “regime change” pot boiling with the Western-orchestrated overthrow and killing of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the proxy civil war in Syria to oust Bashar al-Assad, the costly economic embargoes against Iran, and the U.S.-backed coup that ousted Ukraine’s elected President Viktor Yanukovych last February.
http://www.veteransnewsnow.com/2014/10/19/510698the-neocons-masters-of-chaos/
Posted by: Cee | 15 November 2015 at 10:51 AM
No, International Futbol matches are planned well in advance. It would make sense for a politician to attend to be seen in public and on TV. Plus it was a Friday night and if the President truly enjoys watching the sport then why not take in the game?
Posted by: Thomas | 15 November 2015 at 12:46 PM
Brig Gen. Ali
Yes back in the 1980 's there is credible evidence that the CIA smuggled cocaine into LAX to fund the Contra's . Later the CIA did admit that some "rouge " elements of the the CIA did indeed smuggle the cocaine but it was never sanctioned by DC .
Posted by: alba etie | 15 November 2015 at 07:08 PM
Doesn't the Turkish navy require special beacon trackers on all ships operating in its coastal waters?
Posted by: bth | 15 November 2015 at 11:25 PM
Col., yes the food fight which wasn't my intention. Now is the time for cold calculation.
President Putin is in a unique position to assert control of the western response to IS.
Consider what would happen if Putin gets on CNN for a special interview this week and says in effect that NATO will not fight for France, but Russia will fight for western civilization if no one else will and in token of this, he is sending a large conventional carpet bombing raid on Raqqa as he speaks. It is not precise, it is broad and punitive. This massive attack would come from bombers based in Russia but overflying Iran and Iraq with their permission. More will follow and it will be coordinated with the French if the Americans are holding back. Further the Russians will step up its force level in Syria next year until the border crossings into Turkey are severed from IS. Erdogan would scream but I don't think he has the stones to take on Putin directly.
As to the talk about Qatar, Saudi Arabia and so on, I submit that an indirect approach will be best.
This action plan by Russia would literally shame the US into taking similar action. The French would welcome the support I think and frankly Russia's actions would shut up the European left. I would be interested in Patrick B's thought on Russia and French politics at this point.
Without such an external force of personality and action from Putin, the US or anyone else for that matter will standup and fight at a level that actually decides the issue. The American public is tired and not up to a full on war with IS.
That said the next attack on US territory by IS will cause the American public to become unhinged. The era of pottery barn rules has passed. As usual the American public is six months to a year ahead of our Washington leadership. I suspect the same is true in most of Europe as well.
Last I would ask, is the attack on Russia's airliner, Lebanon, and on France and more to come, an IS planned response to disperse attention from what might be genuine losses and IS weakness emerging in Syria and Iraq?
Posted by: bth | 16 November 2015 at 12:16 AM
that is a confusing response, given what b said.. how so?
Posted by: bell | 16 November 2015 at 12:01 PM
thanks for this post with clarification on your previous comments..
Posted by: bell | 16 November 2015 at 12:08 PM