PARIS ATTACKS: Time for a reality check

By Patrick BAHZAD

We are at war now, says the French press ! No, we are not at war now ... We have been at war for some time already, not a conventional war, but a war nonetheless.

The trouble is, lots of people in the West in general, and in France in particular, didn't know or didn't want to know this uncomfortable truth, and a number of so called "analysts" and "experts" refused to acknowledge it, even after the January attacks on "Charlie Hebdo". 

Earlier this year, I wrote a piece on SST "WRITING ON THE WALL: The significance of recent trends and patterns in Jihadi terrorism". Now, I realize I may sound like those "told you so" armchair strategists, but I want to warn again - like others - about the dangers our societies are exposed to. These threats are complex and just going after potential accomplices, or their backers, won't cut it. 

This is now everybody's business. Most of us however have forgotten what it feels like to be targeted in our streets. Well, it is time to remember. France has never been at peace for more than 60 years and it definitely looks like that record is not going to be broken !

Earlier today, the French President said that we would "have no mercy for those responsible". I hope he means it ... The enemy, who will have heard these words, will relish the challenge. Showing no mercy is not a problem for them, they haven't shown any thus far. But are we ready for such a fight ?

Time to have a good look in the mirror and brace ourselves for things to come. This is only the beginning and we should not be afraid to confront that reality. There can be no turning back and no escaping this time !

Comments

[bth]

Patrick Bahzad, if punitive attacks against IS are on the menu from France and perhaps Russia, what do they look like? Dismissing McCainism rants and Trump blather, what does a cold and calculated punitive campaign against IS look like? What resources are at hand, what targets, when and to what end do western nation-states bring and end to the Islamic proto-state of IS?

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think you meant "relish" and not "relinquish".

Rectifications of names is the first step - we have been in a multi-sided religious war. The soonest that is acknowledged, the soonest order can be restored.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Thx for spotting that BM, haven't slept a lot last night ..

[David Habakkuk]

Patrick Bahzad,

Good hunting to your people.

At the risk of being off-topic, I was struck by the name of the location – which comes from 'Ba-to-clan', the first major 'hit' of the collaboration between Jacques Offenbach and Ludovic Halévy, who were later joined by Henri Meilhac. Between them they produced some of the wittiest, and gentlest, words and music ever written.

The son of Ludovic, Élie, was a great historian – revered over here for his work on British history. The discussions of the First World War and the 'Era of Tyrannies', in the collection of his essays of the same name, which can be bought for next to nothing on Amazon and read in a couple of hours, are an excellent antidote to the 'end of history' nonsense.

The tune of the 'Marine's Hymn' – 'From the Halls of Montezuma' – was borrowed from Offenbach. I don't think he would have minded.

[jld]

The "agenda" seem very well, up, running and advanced:

From https://twitter.com/BradCabana/status/665539298523922432
IS NATO declaring Article 5 collective defence over #Paris a move to confront #Russia in #Syria? It's sure looking that way. #cdnpoli @UN

From https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/665536088002416640
Germany’s Hahn says he expects #NATO to declare Article 5 collective defense posture

And for good measure...
https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/665159227732852738
US decision to supply weapons to Ukraine may spark new hostilities

[Petrous]

Gentlemen
How is a war fought when part our regional allies do not have their heart in it and maybe even have it and their slightly on the other . And we ourselves at times seem to back some very dark horses in the regional civil wars. It and calls for hard decisions.

[confusedponderer]

I just read some more reports and it is terrible what happened in France.

In a sense something like that is probably going to happen in Germany sooner or later. I really wonder if the group hug types, who mistake tolerance for indifference, have the resolution and political will to do what is needed to prevent such a thing. I think that the current situation in Germany at least is one of where an elite consensus beyond party lines exists that there are issues nobody wants to address and this 'tolerates', lest he or she be name called by the PC police. That is what is imo fuelling right movements like Pegida and parties like the AfD.

Tolerance is rather less problematic as far as isues like race or even gay marriage are concerned - it becomes distinctly problematic when it comes to religious fanaticism like Salafism. Tolerance is not an end in itself. One more story from my buddy at the local Ausländeramt:

He recounted the saga of a house search of a known Salafist and regular attendee of Salafist demonstrations. Chechen born, he is being tolerated in Germany because he 'has lost his passport'. Still, he managed to get himself to Sweden, to appear on some Jihadi jamboree which resulted in his mug appearing on facebook. 'Interesting', the extremist section of the local police thought since to get to Sweden he needs a passport. They ordered a house search, suspecting document supression. The Ausländeramt was present because it concernded residence permit status. During the search nothing was found, but there was cutlery lying around conspiciously and two other burly bearded types adorned the flat. During the search the guy threatened the female cop from the extermist section implicitly, calling her a slut and daring her that he'll have the last laugh. She asked him whether his religious beliefes could be reconciled with the Freiheitlich Demokratische Grundordnung - German constitutional order - and he replied in the negative. He then was summoned to the police and during the interrogation it was discovered that he had a 7 inch knife on him.

To deport such an obvious troublemaker is messy business, and many politicos are well shy of undertaking such coercive measures. Coercion is ... so coercive. So, should we tolerate the guy instead, waiting for him to do something justicable, like hurting or killing someone?

That is what I mean with political will. And speaking of deportation, once such folks have a German passport, which they routinely apply for, deportation is no longer an option. Just as bad, then they can travel Europe freely. In the meanwhile, the Ausländerämter are fighting a rearguard action against such types.

[Richard Sale]

It's gong to a war in cold blood.

We will do to ISIS what the Russians and the Allies did to the Nazis and the Japanese Empire.

Richard Sale

[Degringolade]

No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were:
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind,
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
It tolls for thee.

John Donne, 1572 to 1631

[Aka]

Patrick Bahzad,
while security precautions are necessary in these kind of situations, don't you think such massive reaction from both the government (curfews) and society ( tweets and such ) are not really helping.

After all, the terrorist group who ordered (or helped this to happen) didn't expect France to fall with this attack. But this amount of "reaction" is what they might have been expecting. You plain old "terrorism".

[b]

For starters:

How about France stops feeding money and weapons to the "moderate" rebels in Syria as it does since 2012 (see links at my site)? That stuff predictably ends up with the not-so-moderate Salafi Jihadists.

How about France stops to call for regime change in Syria?

But then - billion of Euro weapon contracts from Qatar and Saudi Arabia might be worth the price of a few attacks here and there ...

[ex-PFC Chuck]

I agree. We in the USA are still living with the consequences of over reaction to 9/11, and will be for decades to come.

[turcopolier]

All

I waited with bated breath for the Borg's reaction to this massacre. Sure enough it is being suggested by the likes of Amanpour that Assad and thr Russians are responsible for this by provoking the jihadis. pl

[turcopolier]

Peter M

They are specifically Islamic and should be called that. pl

[Larry M.]

Patrick Bahzad,

It looks to me as if Friday night's atrocity aims to punish France for having recently begun bombing ISIS targets in Syria. I don't know if ISIS really believes it can scare France into stopping those bombing raids, so punishment seems to be the aim.

The most meaningful step France could take now would be to orchestrate diplomatic pressure on first and foremost Turkey's PM Erdogan to stop any remaining Turkish support of ISIS and other jihadi groups in Syria. Saudi Arabia and the other gulfies would the other obvious candidates to be subjected to such pressure. However, as the U.S. does not seem to be completely on board with a broad anti-jihadi strategy, French or even European protests may fall on deaf ears.

[Orin T]

When someone calls for "hard decisions" stand by for a screw-up.

[Equillus]

In retrospect, it seems that it would have been so much less trouble to have allowed Hussein, Mubarak, Assad, Gaddafi, et al to have kept these people suppressed.

We arrived at this denouement ('It's gong to a war in cold blood.'), following a path of supporting the overthrow of the dictators. It was fueled in part by the idea of bringing democracy to the Arab world.

This seems a remarkably childlike notion _ putting power into the hands of the poor and uneducated at one fell swoop. We seem to have forgotten that our own democracy did not start with universal suffrage. The people who were in power got the vote and we worked out the universal part over a couple of hundred years.

If we feel that we must impose our system on the rest of the world, why can't we at least be clever enough to do it right?

Rather too late for that this time around.

[FND]

France has been the fool instigating the Libyan fiasco and supporting the overthrow of Assad. Who will they strike out against? They need to focus. The enemy has not been Assad, not Hezbollah, not Iran. Its the Sunni wahabbis that attack the west. I hope they don't get distracted from their and our real enemy.

[Patrick Bahzad]

I would encourage you to not to post crackpot claims and braindead theories. Paris to confront Russia on Syria ? give me a break !

Also this post is not about Ukraine, keep this in mind if you comment again.

[Patrick Bahzad]

You're asking good questions.

[bks]

ISIS wants an overreaction and invasion. It seems ludicrous to allow them to be the puppetmasters.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Which curfew ? There is no curfew ! Which massive reaction ?

I recommend you read the piece I wrote back in August before making a judgement call.

[Patrick Bahzad]

For starters, I don't like the agressive undertone in your message, which is unbecoming and out of order ...

There is a time and place for everything. Keep your petty arguments for another day.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Yep ... Kerry making almost a similar argument right now.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

Amanpour is a no good bitch. In 1992 a friend of mine was badly injured and a CIA officer was killed when their jeep hit a mine in Somalia. Amanpour and her crew took the remaining vehicle to file a news report and left my friend to bleed and wait for a medevac. Luckily, he healed well. May she rot in Hell.