PARIS ATTACKS : The Belgian Syndrome Sets In Again

By Patrick BAHZAD - updated on November 17th 2015, 10.30 EST

As the investigation into Friday’s attacks now focuses firmly on Belgium, one cannot but notice that there is an eerie sense of déjà vu about this whole thing. Already after the “Charlie Hebdo” attacks, in January, police uncovered strong links, both operational and logistical, with Belgium.

 

This is almost like same things all over again. And I’m not just talking about the previous Paris attacks. Back in 1995, when France was rocked by an Islamic bombing campaign, investigators managed to gather enough evidence to show that the logistics and the planners were located in Brusssels. In 1998, to give just one more example, another bombing plot was uncovered, aimed at targeting the Soccer world cup which took place in France that year. Again, Belgium and Brussels turned out to be the rearbase of the terrorists.

For those interested, there is a piece I wrote about this Belgian syndrome , as I like to call it: "Belgium: from rear base to frontline state of European Jihadis". Change a couple of names and dates, and you will still get a pretty accurate picture of the importance of this “chocolate making country” for Jihadis in Europe. One area of Brussels in particular rose to questionable fame in that regard: Molenbeek-Saint-Jean.

The wannabe terrorist of the Thalys train –  who was disarmed by two US servicemen back in August – lived in Molenbeek. So did the man who shot and killed 4 people at Brussels Jewish Museum in 2014. The terrorist cell that was taken out by Belgian police in January 2015, as a follow up to the “Charlie Hebdo” attacks, had two members who were actually from the same neighbourhood. And now, we got Molenbeek again at the centre of a major terrorist investigation. In this current case, two reasons point to this area.

First of all, one of Friday’s attackers was identified as French national Ismael Mostefai. A man known for his radical beliefs, on a terror watch list since 2010, but never caught red handed. In the fall of 2013, he travelled to Turkey – a country often used by Jihadis as an entry point into Syria– and somehow resurfaced back in France in the spring of 2014.

Mostefai had close connections to a Belgian-Moroccan imam, who seems to have played a decisive role in his radicalisation process. That imam also came out of Molenbeek. Known as some kind of travelling preacher of radical Islam, he has now long disappeared into Syria, and his fate is unclear. Some claim he was killed for treason by the “Islamic State”, others think this may have been a mock execution, in order to cut him some slack with Western intelligence. His link to Mostefai however is beyond doubt.

Other than this circumstantial evidence, there is now a strong material trail pointing to Molenbeek as well. The two cars used by the attackers were of particular interest to investigators, as they had Belgian number plates and turned out to have been rented by one of the attackers. The first car, a Volkswagen Polo was used by Mostefai and two other individuals, who stormed the Bataclan theatre and randomly shot into the crowd, once inside the concert hall. The three men died later on, when French police stormed the building.

The second ISIS “team”, which riddled Eastern Paris cafés and restaurants with bullets, also used a Belgian rental car, a Seat Leon. It looks more and more likely that this team consisted of two brothers, Salah and Ibrahim Abdelslam, two French nationals also living in Molenbeek. After they shot up several restaurants, Salah - the driver - finally dropped off Ibrahim in front of one of the busy terraces of the 10th “arrondissement”. Ibrahim, got out of the car, ordered a coffee and blew himself up ...

Meanwhile, the last of the three suicide-bombers at Paris' "Stade de France" football stadium also detonated his vest. He has now been identified as Bilal Hadfi, a 20 year old Belgian citizen or resident.

This means that Salah Abdelslam - the driver of the Seat - was the only member of the 8 men group who didn't end up dead on Friday night. His car was found earlier today in a North-Eastern suburb of Paris. At that point, French police already had analysed the number plate of the other car used in the theatre attack and had come up with Abdelslam's name and address, in Brussels.

Belgian police acted swiftly and arrested seven people in total, one of them another Abdelslam brother. Salah however is still on the run and Belgian police will be very keen to get their hands on him, as he could be the group's bombmaker, as well as its only survivor.

With the investigation having just started, it is obviously too early to draw any conclusions, but one thing already stands out. This was a transnational operation, launched by terrorists with different nationalites, planned in Syria, prepared in Belgium and carried out in France.

The operational details and the identities of the attackers – or most of them – will be uncovered pretty quickly. The logistical Belgian rearbase and its supporters should also be taken out in a not so distant future. That leaves one remaining and essential question: who are the masterminds who planned these attacks ?

Obviously, you may think that it would be difficult to identify individuals acting out of Raqqa, in Syria, far out of the reach of most intelligence and police agencies. To be honest however, the number of suspects is rather small, and it is highly likely that investigators will focus on two or maybe three ISIS planners. You might call them the “usual uspects” as their name routinely turns up, whenever ISIS members of affiliates plot something in France, or in Belgium.

Two of these terrorist “masterminds” are French. Both of them had close connections with the attackers who carried out the January attacks against “Charlie Hebdo” and the kosher supermarket. Additionally, they both were “well acquainted” with Ismael Mostefai, the Bataclan terrorist whose identity has been released first.

The third man who might have been involved in planning Friday’s mass-murders is Belgian. Earlier this year, he was sentenced – in abstentia – to 20 years jail by a Belgian court, for his involvement in the terror cell that was taken out by police after January’s Paris attacks. Now take a guess, which area of Brussels he came from ?

Up-date: as I wrote two days ago, it turns out that the alleged "ringleader" in Friday's attacks is "usual suspect" number 3, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a Belgian ISIS member who was sentenced - in abstentia - to 20 years jail earlier this year. Most MSM are currently publishing profiles about him, so I won't bother adding anything. But you read it here first !

 

Comments

[S Wood]

What is it with Brussels and Islamic terrorists? Why can't the authorities in Belgium take care of this den of terrorists? I would appreciate any light that could be shed on these questions.

[LondonBob]

Was it IS or was it Al Qaeda, has this been confirmed yet? I see some saying it bears the hallmarks of AQ and IS's claim of responsibility seems sketchy. AQ is well represented amongst the domestic French/Belgian Muslim population and certainly has form. I seem to remember Hebdo was initially erroneously pinned on IS.

[Tigershark]

Patrick, I presume Belgium for planning and logistics because the government there has either not the resources or has chosen not to spend the resources that the French do on anti-terrorism efforts?

Easier to slip "under the radar"

But once again, with rental cars, smuggled and purchase AK's and ammo, and explosive belts and explosives, there has to be a money trail. Follow the money and eliminate the bankers.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Small country at the crossroads to a number of European countries (UK, France, Germany, Netherlands). Easy to enter and to exit.
Weak State, dysfunctional police forces for most of the 1990s, strong immigrant community from the Maghreb. Very "light" anti-terrorism legislation, easy access to illegal arms market. Presence of Balkans organised crime. Shall I keep going ?

[Patrick Bahzad]

Yes, AQAP was behind Charlie Hebdo, but ISIS affiliate Amedy Coulibaly was the killer in the kosher supermarket. Call it a hybrid terror cell if you will.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Yep, you're right about Belgium.

As far as money is concerned, you would be surprized how little money is needed to stage all this. Besides, these guys can use informal ways of money transfer that cannot be traced or tracked because there is no paperwork and no digital footprint of such transactions.

[FB Ali]

IS or AQ? someone asked.

I would suggest there is not that much difference between them. While their leaderships differ, and tend to jealously guard their preserve (as leaders do everywhere), there is not much difference between their members. They both follow the same ideology, and it is easy for a member of one to switch to the other, or join up with its members. Especially if the local 'chapter' of one is planning something big.

For purposes of categorisation, it is a question of which organization the leader or planner belonged to.

[mike]

Could this guy detained in Germany be #8? Maybe not, and too early to tell. But if not, then what was he up to?

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/1114/Germany-snags-possible-suspect-in-Paris-attacks

[Patrick Bahzad]

No he is not 8th man. Number 8 is the guy who drove back to Brussels after the attacks. His name is Abdelslam Salah.

The guy in Germany is from Montenegro. probably just an arms smuggler linked to organised crime.

[Haralambos]

This Is just up on the BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34826117

[Jack]

Patrick

I don't know much about French politics. What is your opinion of how these attacks impact domestic politics in France and the implications of that on French policy with respect to Syria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia?

[Kunuri]

The main highway into EU is through Turkey, in or out. In reality, no one posts a tweet, or lights up a cigarette without Turkish police knowing about it. Now, lets talk about complicity, duplicity and crimes of omission. I hope no one is believing all that talk coming from G20 summit in Antalya, this whole mess has tantacles going back 5 years. One needs to digest the refugee crises, Paris massacre and all that has been going on down there and here in Turkey, not by what is said, but what is done, or not done. RTE ini coaltion to stop ISIS, lol. I am so bewildered why enablers of the mess down there, Sauidies, Qataries and of course the Tayyiban do not get the spotlight, people are wondering why and how. And they are down there, still hungry to be hoodwinked and misled and lied to for the glorification of the supreme leader, I cant take it anymore.

[charly]

An AK is something like 1k on the black market according to the local media. Car rental is 100. Explosive belts are home made and i have no idea about the price of explosives. 1k is about one months wage if you have a really shitty job so self-financed should be expected

[Babak Makkinejad]

In time, terrorists could print "single-use" disposable weapons.

[walrus]

Turkey seems to be the key to destroying ISIS. Could the caliphate survive without a porous border with Turkey and financing from Saudi Arabia? I think not.

Can ISIS be destroyed without supporting the Assad Government? I think not.

Can ISIS/AQ attacks in the West be stopped while maintaining the Liberal/R2P/Academic fiction of the existence of "Universal humanitarian values? I think not.

Can Western style democracy be implanted in societies where it is an alien concept? I think not.

I think I now might now know how all this ends if the idiots in Western capitals, and Israel, are not removed from power. It ends for the West in the detonation of an ISIS controlled nuclear weapon in a Western capital city, followed by the threat by ISIS of more of the same.

If Erdogan does not stop accommodating Jihadis, then he must be replaced with a military dictatorship. If the Saudis continue their funding, they need to interdicted.

We need to support the Assad regime if only to ensure that captured Jihadis of any description down to perhaps the age of Twelve, are quickly liquidated since "de radicalisation" is a myth.

We have to end the fiction that we are against "radical extremism" instead of radical Islam, reinstate border controls. Halt the flow of refugees everywhere. Control the issuance of passports and visas based on reversing the onus of proof of need and do more of the same.

ISIS and its supporters want battle. Give it to them.

[S Wood]

Thank you for the reply. I also found this on the Belgium connection:
http://news.yahoo.com/belgium-connection-under-spotlight-paris-attacks-201144343.html

Botton line: Like you said, the Belgians have more or less dropped the ball on the terrorists in their midst.

[xxtommix]

The Paris atrocities took place nearly immediately before the G20 summit in Anatlya, Turkey, which has been in the works for some time one would presume. Have seen no discussion of this quirky time sequence.

[user1234]

Belgium - tolerant society, easy immigration. But it's really not that important. Locking the EU up and controlling the flow of people is not a realistic option. If someone is determined to commit random violence, there is little you can do to stop them. Look at how many random shootings we have in the US. Life goes on.

[Amir]

Don't forget the state structure: Belgium is federalized. There was a Federal government, a Flemish Community Government (based on linguistic bonds) and a Flemish Regional Government (based on geographic character) but the Flemish decided to combine the Regional and Community government into one entity. However, there're similar institutions for the French speaking Walloon, German speaking East Cantons. On top of that, Brussels has it's own Regional and Community government. All these "governments" have their own ministers and staff and as you can imagine, coordination is not the main goal. An academician had calculated that if the Chinese government wanted to copy the Belgian model, they needed 250.000 cabinet ministers. This inefficiency is part though not the main explanation why the Jihadist have a good hiding ground in Belgium. This is again not the main reason but the easiest to be dealt with by creating an overarching command for anti-terrorism operations. This whole model also explains whey EVERYONE is finding a good hiding ground in Belgium and international diamond as well as gun and drug and banking is finding nice gray zones in Belgium and connected to it Benelux (Luxembourg).

[Amir]

I had heard that a granade costed 50 Euro and a Cheap AK 350 Euro, at the beginning of the millennium. If you are a single unemployed, the government will pay 525 Euros a month for your maintenance.

[Amir]

Exactly. This highway is the same that the drug smugglers use. The European extreme-right is evil without any doubt and you don't need to look to WWII to realize it, just look into Ukraine and Yugoslavia area. But the left is asleep and I have a lot of really NICE friends amongst them.

[Amir]

I agree. Let's not pick of the easy target. Belgium is not the problem. Holland with his duplicitous support for anti-Asad coalition is a way bigger problem for himself that Belgium ever was. If the terrorists don't come through Belgium, they will come from Marseille.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Kunuri,

1-Given what is happening in the G20 summit, the (conspiracy) theory about the creation of a pretext to get the west involved in Syria is starting to look reasonably credible. I cannot believe what I am reading/seeing either.
2-A long time ago a proven murderer, Fehriye Erdal, was given sanctuary in Belgium. The issue is still not resolved. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fehriye_Erdal . The complicity of this bitch was captured by video cameras. Something is rotten in Belgium...

Ishmael Zechariah

[confusedponderer]

Amir,
"If the terrorists don't come through Belgium, they will come from Marseille."

Doesn't mean Belgium is not a dangerous entry point worth adressing.

I also think you wrongly ascribe ISIS hostility to Hollande's 'duplicitous support for the anti-Asad coalition'. They have a problem with France with or without Hollande.

Take this: About ten days ago, France sent the Charles de Gaule to join the anti-ISIS fight.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/ships/2015/11/05/france-deploy-aircraft-carrier-anti-fight-syria-iraq/75229194/

Given that the planning for the attack must have taken several weeks at least, there is no causality here. The plot must predate the deployment.

That is, they would have attacked France without Hollande increasing France's involvement in targeting ISIS.

So, why France as the target? Actually, I would have expected something directed at Russia instead. Because perhaps they had connections, people and the infrastructure at the ready in Belgium and needed to do something quick to demonstrate their strength in face of their setbacks of late in Iraq, and France was logistally doable?

[confusedponderer]

... 'directed at Russia' - of course there apparently was the airliner bombing. I meant 'in Russia'.