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25 November 2015

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sillybill

Tyler,
i thought this was supposed to be a serious forum - perhaps you could give a little pointer to support the statement "We will rebuke the terrorists with our climate change conference"? or anything similar?

Chris Chuba

I think that Syria is a bad candidate for partitioning for security reasons.
1. The Kurds can benefit by being a protectorate of Assad's Syria. As an independent nation they would always be in danger of invasion / absorption by Turkey. They are in less danger by being part of the nation of Syria.
2. I could actually see Assad himself being tempted to allow a partition of the Sunni portion of his country but that might be a perpetual thorn in his side and it would deprive him of his oil fields forever. It looks like he is willing to take his chances with an election in order to keep Syria whole. From our perspective, a Sunnistan would be bad because it would always be susceptible to becoming IS2 but you were discussing this from an internal security point of view so I'll keep to that point.

Partitioning sounds tempting but there is a saying, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts; granted it was a Star Trek Voyager episode but I still think that there is some wisdom in it.

ex-PFC Chuck

Since Obama came to prominence here in the states one of the memes propagated by the mouth-breathers on the ultra-far right is that he is a Moslem mole. The true-believing Obamabots, on the other hand, explain away the fact that, although his record of "achievement" in office exposes his 2008 campaign as one of the great bait-and-switch scams of all time, he is in fact playing eleven dimensional chess as he crab walks towards his objectives. Maybe they're both correct, except that the bots utterly misunderstand his real objectives.
Just a thought. And a scary one at that, although probably ridiculous. But every now and then it keeps popping up in my mind.

ex-PFC Chuck

I suspect Erdogan, perhaps with at least implicit blessing from the US, likely authorized the shoot down in expectation that the Russians that would do something in response that would justify Turkey declaring war which. As you and the author at Fort Russ point out, this would justify closing Russian access betweethe Black and Mediterranean seas. Like George W. Bush, Erdogan greatly misunderestimated his adversary. Putin's Russia will do nothing of the kind, but will find subtle ways to hurt Erdogan and his supporters politically and personally; the latter at least financially and perhaps in other ways as well.

Outrage Beyond

I think that while Obama is following the directives of Riyadh, Ankara and Jerusalem to some degree, he's following the directives of the neocons and Israel's 5th column in the US to a much greater degree. Witness the recent publication of Kagan's directives in the WSJ and the fact that Victoria Nuland is secure in her State Department position as just two examples of these latter forces. (Of course, they are all connected.)

While it's convenient to blame Obama as being dumb and incompetent, I think there is another explanation for his actions, or lack thereof.

Like the Clintons, Obama plans to feather his nest after leaving office. The media cite numbers of over $100M for the Clintons since 2000. I suspect Obama has an equal or larger number in mind, and has no intention of damaging such prospects.

FB Ali

"They likely did not do so with NATO approval..."

Who the heck cares about NATO - the US's handmaiden, to use a polite word?

There is no way that Erdogan, a sharp customer even though a megalomaniac, would have taken such a drastic and potentially consequential step without assurance that the US would back him afterwards.

FB Ali

How about the USA? Or, Canada? Several European countries?

And, if you mean that this is what the West should do to "promote collective security and order", which century are you living in?

turcopolier

FB Ali

I do not agree. IMO Erdogan is a bull headed Turk who thinks (like Natanyahu) that "the Americans are easy to push." pl

Joe100

A photo of the SU-24 navigator rescue team and more details on the rescue operation are at

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2493519.html

This page also has photographs of three militant leaders claimed to have been killed in air strikes after the SU-24 was shot down. Interesting that one is British and apparently the son of Hollywood director Patrick Keeney.

Another Cassad page:

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2491068.html

has photos of the militants interviewed by Reuters who claimed to have killed the pilot by shooting him in the air as he was descending by parachute. The group leader (holding the "parachute part") is identified as Turkish national Alpasion Celik, who b noted yesterday (on his site) is the Syrian Turkmen militant leader.

The Cassad page also has several photos of "Celik and friends" showing a flag and hand gestures that are symbols of the Turkish youth organization "Grey Wolves". So clearly Much going on in the Syrian Turkmen area that does not fit the Borg's "moderate rebels" story line.

FB Ali

I do not think Erdogan asked for, or got, any 'official' assurances from the USA. However, I believe that he would not have taken on Russia without assurances from people like Carter, Brennan, the Nuland wing of State, the R2P girls, etc that the US would back him.

This is the same way that Netanyahu navigates around the US.

Erdogan may be many things, but I don't think he is crazy.

confusedponderer

FB Ali,
I wouldn't put it beyond him to act and calculate, that - given the attitudes expressed by Carter, Brennan, the Nuland wing of State, the R2P girls about regime change in Syria being imperative and about Putin, the villain - he would be forgiven.

In that sense, Erdogan is indeed playing the US and the factions in the Obama government.

You perhaps underestimate the extent to which Erdogan must feel alienated by the US and is indifferent to their interests.

He must feel slighted by the latest US moves against ISIS and in particular in support of the Kurds.

Erdogan's moves about Incirlic weren't moves of someone who asks the US to allow him anything. If Hersh is right the Turks made Ghouta happen to get the US to act on its red line, also not a move of someone who asks the US on matters of war and pace. In fact, Erdogan was outraged the US didn't take the cue.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n24/seymour-m-hersh/whose-sarin

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n08/seymour-m-hersh/the-red-line-and-the-rat-line

If anything, consulting the US would have risked compromising the mission, given that the US deconflict with the Russians, they just might - out of sheer residual sanity in the military - tip the Russians off. I don't think Erdogan trusts the US enough to ask them for allowance in such matters.

I may be wrong though.

Chris Chuba

So, if Turkey needs NATO to approve an Article 5 petition to close the Bosphorus / Dardanelles what is the procedure, a majority vote by the members, or is there some rotating council that decides this?

I read that the only time Article 5 was ever declared was after 9/11 and it only authorized military action against the Taliban / Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Lots of people (not here) talk as if ANY conflict that involves Turkey automatically pulls in NATO but this is obviously an untrue, oversimplification. My question is, how much military conflict could the Russians engage in with Turkey and still be safe from an Article 5 declaration?
1. Shooting down Turkish Jets over Syria.
2. Shooting down Turkish Jets over Turkey that are close to Syria but targeting Russian Jets over Syrian air space.
3. Bombarding (with either artillery and/or air strikes) Turkish troops crossing the border into Syria.

If it comes down to a vote then I suppose that it depends on the fickleness of the voting members but I'd like to understand the NATO voting process better. Thanks in advance.

Outrage Beyond

re: "how they managed such control"

A couple of their methods, the overt and the covert.

One overt method is money. The directive to contribute to the "right" candidates is broadcast by AIPAC and similar groups to the Zionist faithful. Likewise, the directive to not contribute to candidates or officeholders who don't toe the line is also passed down. Even the threat of turning the money spigot on (for an opponent) or off is very effective. For many members of Congress, it's easier to go along, than be the lonely outlier, standing up for principle. As most members of Congress plan to gain very large financial rewards after leaving office, they likewise don't do much, if anything, to upset the sources of such largesse.

The covert method is blackmail. Why do you think the "Old Lady From South Carolina" is such a fervent Zionist? Are there really that many pro-Israel fanatics in South Carolina? In addition to the money, of course, there's the distinct possibility that certain agencies have some excellent blackmail material, such as proof of the OLFSC cavorting with underage boys. Pure speculation, of course; but I've seen similar speculations elsewhere.

Think of other scandal-tinged Senators. If a member of Congress is linked to prostitution, and the DC Madam conveniently dies, is there a quid pro quo? Did she really kill herself, or was she "suicided" as she supposedly feared? Likewise, do they have tangible evidence of assignations with hookers? Such evidence is worth more as a lever than as a revelation. Once revealed, the value is lost.

Think also of the way members of Congress, particularly brand-new ones are spirited off to Israel for "educational" trips. A lonely Congressman, far from home, all by himself in a hotel. He chances to meet an attractive young woman. What harm could it do, he thinks, and dallies with her through the night. No one will know, right? Of course, it wasn't by chance, and the room was wired for sound and video. Discreet messages are sent about how some dastards have caught our dashing Member in flagrante delicto. But never fear; these "friends" will keep the Member and his wandering member safe from harm. Just help us out from time to time.

There are surely other methods, but these are some of the most obvious.

Tyler

Chuck,

I don't feel like the patterns were so extreme, or there was at least a nod towards human frailties (Henry VIII being declared Defender of the Faith) vs. the total pillaging that seemed to occur during the Islamic cycles.

With Catholic Magisterium, there was far less of the splintering you saw - at least splintering that led to viable sects vs. a force of armed men showing up at the doorstep wanting to 'talk'.

Tyler

sillybill,

This is a big boy forum - big enough that you can do your own google search before trying to rebuke me for insulting President Gay Urkel.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/11/24/obama_what_a_powerful_rebuke_to_the_terrorists_paris_climate_summit_will_be.html

http://thefederalist.com/2015/11/24/obama-says-hell-rebuke-isis-by-talking-about-climate-change/

http://thefederalist.com/2015/11/24/obama-says-hell-rebuke-isis-by-talking-about-climate-change/

Tyler

Nancy K,

Yes, I know a successful billionaire with ideas that aren't pulled straight from Rules for Radicals is a very scary thing to you over there in California, where President Cocoa Messiah makes you feel so much better about your white privilege or whatever.

Get ready to Make America Great Again, Nancy. You on the Left went full speed ahead making a "Man on a White Horse" possible, and now you get to reap the whirlwind. If you see me when I come through Cali as part of Trump's DEPORTATION FORCE, be sure to wave.

Tyler

Chris,

I think your fears IRT to bullet point 3 are misplaced. The Russians have ECM mastery and furthermore the Patriots aren't anti-aircraft batteries. My understanding is that the reason the Patriots were an issue for the SAF was that they constantly painted the planes with radar locks. I don't think that this will be a problem with the RuAF, especially if the Russians drop one of those insane "jam fuggin EVERYTHING" devices out there.

As far as 1 goes, don't expect consistency from the Borg. Its based off the schizophrenic death cult that is secular progressive thought and will turn on a dime to criticize what it was supporting the day before and claim it was someone else's fault.

Tyler

Chris,

A lot of people are forgetting that if Russia turns off the tap Europe can freeze in the dark this winter.

Tyler

Amir,

Thanks. Now I have to defend GWB of all people, a man I can't stand.

There is no evidence to make that kind of statement regarding the intelligence of Obama over GWB. GWB's weakness was not his intelligence, but his inability to realize when he was being played by people. All discussions about the man revolve around an almost pathological need to see the "best" in people.

Obama is above average intelligence, but like most high IQ blacks he uses it to engage in navel gazing about blackety black black blackety black nonsense like Tahesi Genius Coates.

Furthermore the same people who give GWB shit for getting a free ride ignore that Obama came from the same Yankee stock through his mother's side, and was on track to be a diplomat/foreign affairs specialist with the Islamic world until he decided to go get involved in racial agitation in Chicago politics.

GWB isn't my favorite person at all, and set the stage for a lot of the policies that Obama has continued, so for me to write all that in defense of the man is 100% pure setting my teeth on edge.

Babak Makkinejad

If you look at the population distribution maps, it is clear that partition is not possible without forceful ejection of people from their ancestral lands. In Europe, Allies forced that repatriation except that in this case there is no per-existing "Patrie" to which on could return.

On the political front, Iran and Russia are opposed to the partition of Syria and Iraq.

In fact, if my understanding has been correct, Iran and Saudi Arabia and Syria were opposed to plans in 1970s for the partition of Lebanon. What I heard at that time was that there was a plan, likely inspired by Israelis, to break Lebanon into 3 parts; on of which was going to become the Palestinian State.

I think even the Arab League would oppose partition plans for Syria and Iraq.

Misanthrope

I was always surprised the Russians let Saakashvili walk away from the Georgia conflict. Now he's causing more trouble in Ukraine. I think if I'd been in the position of Putin/Medvedev I'd have had him bumped off, if only to send the message that if you mess with us it'll be your neck on the block not just your soldiers' or citizens' necks. Might have given Erdogan pause for thought at least.

Babak Makkinejad

You are right.

Why does not Italy give up Tirol back to Austria?

Unity & Integration for NATO states, Partition & Division for everyone else seems to be their motto.

Emad

All,

Somewhat OT, but I'm interested in the committee's reactions to this piece by the inventor of the Friedman Unit.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/25/opinion/letter-from-saudi-arabia.html?_r=1

FB Ali

The decision to shoot down the Russian plane wasn't a spur of the moment one by some underling. It would have been taken by Erdogan after appropriate deliberation.Whether he likes the US or not doesn't matter. What did matter was taking into account the US position if he took such an action.

I am not suggesting Erdogan consulted the US. Turkish officials talk all the time to their US counterparts. I am certain they must have broached that possibility to them and sought their reactions as to what would be the US position. Based on these reports Erdogan made an informed assessment of what the US would do.

And then made his decision.

The Beaver

To all,

The Russian leader said, under the cooperation already established with the U.S.-led coalition, Russia's military had passed on details of the flight plan of the jet that was shot down this week.

"Why did we pass this information to the Americans? Either they were not controlling what their allies were doing, or they are leaking this information all over the place," Putin said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/26/mideast-crisis-france-russia-putin-idUKL8N13L4LQ20151126

Is Putin telling the truth about the flight plan?

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