Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 1

At popular request we will have a war game on the subject of the downfall of the current weller of jihadists in the context of the seemingly never ending sine curves of Sunni revivalism over the centuries.

The game will be played in turns- probably three, but, who knows...  An initial scenario and crowdsourced comments will be followed after a bit by another scenario, one that has been affected by the crowdsourcing, etc. 

I will be the judge of the value of individual comments and of the extent to which any or all comments will affect the next game turn scenario.

Game time will begin 2 November, 2015 and the first move will extend in Game Time to 1 February, 2016.  Following moves will extend through periods of Game Time to be announced with the new turn.

Turn One Scenario:

Syria -The R+6 coalition of (Russia+SAA+Iran+Hizbullah+YPG Kurds+progovernment sectarian militias+Palestinian militias continues its offensives all over NW Syria, South of Damascus and in the rebel held suburbs of Damascus.

Turkey - Erdogan's crypto Islamist party regained control of the parliamentary political process in November.  In spite of that, outrage has grown in Turkey against obvious ant-Kurdish government military and police action and Erdogan's attempts to subvert the Kemalist secular constitution.  Turkey maintains a supposedly neutral posture in the islamist war against secularism in Syria while continuing to facilitate islamist supply and reinforcements through Turkish territory.  US/Turkish problems over Turkish bombing of the YPG Kurds (US allies) and their USSF advisers has continued and a possible withdrawal of permission for US use of the base at Incirlik looms.

Iraq -  The Abadi government's cooperation with Russia and Iran continues to increase.

Israel - Coordination of activities with Russia continues but occasional Israeli air attacks in Syria against Hizbullah targets has created additional tension with Russia.

Iran - Participation in the R+6 coalition continues to grow in both Syria and Iraq as well as in Russia's diplomatic efforts with regard to Syria.

Gulfies -SA and friends in the Gulf continue to support jihadi enemies of secularism in Syria and Iraq.

US - America continues to support anti-Western forces in Syria and Iraq.  US Army Green Berets are inserted into the territory controlled by the YPK Kurds to assist them in various ways.

Russia - Continues to press its diplomatic effort seeking to craft a peace that does not hand over Syria to jihadis.  at the same time Russia continues to reinforce both its air and ground expeditionary forces in Syria.

Ukraine - The Kiev government continues to attempt to regain territory in the east.

Afghanistan - Government control continues to be contested heavily by Taliban forces.

World Economy - Oil and Gas prices around the world remain "soft."

China - ???????

Comments in the game that are just meaningless or silly will not be posted or considered. 

The question posed - What will happen between 2 November, 2015 and 1 February 2016?  Real World comments in this turn will close on 5 November, 2015.  pl 

Comments

[RetiredPatriot]

Why would anyone talk Rove out of it?

RP

[Chris Chuba]

My scenario may seem overly optimistic but this is how I justify it.
1. Putin will be eager to demonstrate that he is indeed fighting ISIS before the U.S. election cycle and working with rebels of good faith (the Kurds) and put a strain on Turkish / U.S. relations.

2. With the capture of more air bases Russia will be able to increase their support for the Assad coalition to increase their effectiveness. While the time table for ground operations is unknown to us, this is in keeping with the good practices of military secrecy, this does not mean that there IS no time table. Once the battle reaches a tipping point things can break quickly in R+6's favor and this can facilitate the scenario I describe.

The more I think about it, having U.S. forces take Raqqa would be close to irresistible to Obama because he could pound his chest and claim credit for taking ISIS's Berlin. Whether this is good or bad is hard for me to say. It could be good if Obama finally starts working with Putin because he gets in a good mood getting his token victory, it would be bad if it blocks R+6's drive east and saves ISIS.

[BostonB]

OT: Iraqi politician Ahmed Chalabi who pushed Bush to invade Iraq dies (heart attack)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/us-iraq-chalabi-idUSKCN0SS0MW20151103

[LeaNder]

Trey N,

maybe I will look into that later, but what makes you think the Colonel needs this expert?

On a personal note, concerning "Color revolutions", two early revolutions came to mind, the Carnation Revolution and the Cedar Revolution associatively. Would they fit his theories?

Beyond that, I am not a fan of statements like the one below, read some more, apart from trying to find out something about the author, including realizing that his book available via Amazon Google as Kindle edition for $ 5.09 is not too long:

"This exclusive may be lengthy, but I hope to make it worth everyone’s precious time in giving them an experience that they won’t soon forget."

[BabelFish]

For background on how US SOF could be supported in theater, for tactical considerations:

http://news.usni.org/2015/11/02/expeditionary-mobile-base-chesty-puller-may-receive-sof-upgrades-before-5th-fleet-deployment?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=5a5abdac71-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-5a5abdac71-230407953&mc_cid=5a5abdac71&mc_eid=92be829f50

[LeaNder]

J Vilain = Villain J?

Maybe I never did seriously look into these war games. Today I realized what I may have missed. Quite interesting.

"Game time will begin 2 November, 2015 and the first move will extend in Game Time to 1 February, 2016. Following moves will extend through periods of Game Time to be announced with the new turn."

I have to admit that I had to read this twice. OK, I am outing myself as someone paying only selective attention??? Even more attention that harms my supposedly core interest here?

I didn't really read this twice because it was hard to understand. But maybe I read it twice since one of the central game rules, demanded the whole entry had to be read to the end.

OK, it makes sense. ;)

[turcopolier]

LeAnder

A game like this that projects expected future developments has to be played in a special timescape separate from real world time. pl

[LeaNder]

"My premise is that Putin planned this out carefully,"

Strictly this is a realistic assumption considering the time span between Obama's red line and now.

I am not sure about this though:
"R+6 makes it a priority to link up with the Kurdish territory on the north to close the border with Turkey."

[LeaNder]

About Jordan - not going to happen.

Could we rest a while within the limits of this "war game" to honor?:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yitzhak_Rabin

[LeaNder]

Ok, in hindsight I agree, they cannot afford to go as far as MartinJ wants them to.

[The Twisted Genius]

As of 1 Feb 2016, the YPG has not attempted to cross the Euphrates en masse to seize Jarabulus and beyond. However, the roads south and immediately west of Jarabulus are becoming increasingly difficult to transit due to frequent ambushes and mining by YPG raiding parties as well as incredibly well timed strikes by A-10s, AC-130s and armed drones. Western volunteers have been rumored to be among these YPG raiding parties. Further to the west, R+6 forces are interdicting traffic across the Turkish border in a similar, even more robust, manner. Turkish complaints of civilian deaths due to these raids and bombings are becoming louder. Both the R+6 and the USG claim only terrorist targets have been hit. The USG further claims that only IS targets have been hit by its aircraft. In spite of these reassurances, Turkey warns the USG that, not only will permission for the use of Incirlik be withdrawn, but Turkish airspace may be closed to US overflight.

Further to the east, the YPG and its Euphrates Volcano allies have consolidated their hold on Hasaka and Al Hawl. They are content to hold and defend what they have for now. The USG openly acknowledges that a small number of Special Forces are training and equipping some local Arab tribes in this area. These tribal militias claim they will soon push the offensive south towards Ash Shaddadi, but so far they have only conducted limited “confidence missions” often with US air support. What the USG is not acknowledging is that other Special Forces teams have been working to forge a coherent operational relationship between the YPG and these Arab militias. These teams are also advising the YPG on defending their northern borders against increasing Turkish attacks. The teams working directly with the YPG are operating under cover as Western volunteers.

Across the border in Iraq, Peshmerga forces with some YPG and Yezidi support have succeeded in taking Shingal and continue to hold the improved road that runs to Tal Afar. The offensive was meant to push 20 km south to Baaj, but has stalled due to tenacious IS defense and tactical counterattacks. They are adapting well.

[bth]

Iran - In late November an extraordinary number of multi-billion dollar contracts are inked between Russia and Iran. Among these are deals to swap oil for gas in the Caspian as well as pipeline access and concessions to the Gulf for Russia. New contract models announced by Iran result in multi-billion dollar deals between these two parties. Additionally major defense procurements are announced for coming years by Iran from Russia in exchange for petrochemical commodities. Zarubezhneft negotiates extremely favorable terms in November for the Changulen field in Ilam province. Russia presses the western governments to increase the speed of release of embargoed funds to exceed $29 billion of the $100 in Jan. 2016. Iran entices western companies, particularly the Germans with petrochemical refining and processing contracts but does not agree to terms before Feb. and until embargoed funds are fully released.

[Chris Chuba]

I am not familiar with the war games thread as I am new to this website. Are you going to grade/rate any of these posts, offer a synthesis, or provide a scenario of your own?

[J]

China:

China's 'overt' involvement has been to send 'military advisers' to work with Russian personnel in the Latakia region. Chinese are gleaning intelligence gained from the R+3 Baghdad joint info center. Should China need, they have one of their carriers Liaoning-CV-16 based close to the Syrian AOR.

China's dog in the fight is a future Uyghur/ISIS alignment, to which China has a valued stake in preventing.

[Babak Makkinejad]

In regards to possible sabotage in the Russian airliner that disintegrated over Sinai - the Russian Government will need to publicly take action against any state to which such sabotage could be traced. There would be overwhelming anger among the Rus to do hit back.

This potentially could lead to World War III if Russians leaders feel compelled to act against Gulfie Arabs.

[Babak Makkinejad]

They can get by supplies from Sinkiang and from the Russian Federation. They are not, in my opinion, like Japan in 1930s.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think Iraqi Kurds are already there; Iranians read them the Riot Act back in 2014 when they were making noises about independence from Iraq and they folded.

There is likely to be further intra-Kurdish rivalries but I agree with you; US allies are against them (in Turkey and in the Persian Gulf area) and as an Iranic people they belong neither with Turks nor with the Arabs.

[turcopolier]

Chris Chuba

"An initial scenario and crowdsourced comments will be followed after a bit by another scenario, one that has been affected by the crowdsourcing, etc.

I will be the judge of the value of individual comments and of the extent to which any or all comments will affect the next game turn scenario." pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

In the event of the occupation of the Al Haram Al Sharif by Israelis - there would be massive protests & rioting in Muslim majority states.

UNSC condemns the actions of Israel and demands removal of Israelis from the Noble Sanctuary.

US vetoes that resolution.

Egypt, Jordan, Azerbaijan, and others will break diplomatic relations with Israel.

There will be multiple Fatwas declaring Israel to be the Enemy of Islam and urging all Muslims to fight to liberate Al Quds.

[Babak Makkinejad]

On Syrian Kurds:

I do not think your scenario is very likely. Also, Kurdish population there is too small to control that territory nor would it be able to keep it ethnically cleansed of Arabs.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I agree, this is very likely and I think it is part of the course correction of the Russian Federation in regards to her Iran policy.

[Kunuri]

I will ditto your comment and predictions. My only addition will be to expect less aggressive Turkish responses all around, because the Army is far more level headed than Il Douche, and they can see far more farther than a couple of years.

[charly]

Greece sends draft dodgers back to Syria. No need to build a wall, which is also a bit difficult in the sea

[Matthew]

Kunuri: If Turkey pulled authorization for the USAF to overfly Turkey, the Russians would probably be thrilled.

[different clue]

Babak Makkinejad,

One hopes there are enough legacy Rabinists with arms and plans to be able to violently pre-empt and prevent any such Revisionist rush to symbolically occupy the Temple Mount. Because if there aren't, then the fact that the Revisionists would be brazen enough to attempt it would indicate to some of the Dual Passport Israelis that Israel is a terminal case and that they should begin leaving before it is too late to escape.

However, if there ARE enough armed and organized Rabinists to kill off any attempt to occupy the Temple Mount, how will the Revisionists respond? Will they launch enough counter-Rabinist violence of their own to educate non-Revisionist Israelis to the fact that holding up their end of a civil war is the last faint hope they have of preserving their own Rabinist existence within the physical boundaries of Israel? And if so, which way would different parts of the different Armed Services break? Would America and maybe the rest of the West feel a need to enter Israel fast and hard to secure all the atom bombs before the forces of Lieberman and Bennett seize them? Would it be any easier to forcibly secure Israeli atom bombs than to secure Pakistani atom bombs? (Which would have to be done by China in any case . . . )