Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 3

Situation as of 2 June 2016 (Game Time)

- Combat Situation.  R+6 forces have largely defeated SNC (Unreconstructed FSA Unicorns + mostly non IS jihadi Sunnis who have not fled to Turkey and thence to Europe).

In northern Syria.  The main line of contact with SNC forces is north and east of Aleppo.

SNC held parts of Aleppo are besieged by R+6.  The Syrian government has called on FSA unicorns in Aleppo to surrender under an offer of amnesty and integration into R+6 forces in their own units under government supervision.  There have been a lot of defections from FSA in the context of an ever shrinking perimeter in Aleppo. Russian advisers have done an adequate job of teaching rattenkrieg combat in cities techniques to their allies.  There have been several building collapses along the line of contact within the city as R+6 "mouseholes" its way through walls connecting adjoining buildings to reach streets that can be covered by fire from within.  The Syrian government has called on the SNC to allow civilians to leave the city.  The government has also appealed to migrants now in Turkey and in Europe to return to pacified areas after screening for jihadi allegiance.

R+6 forces have moved to positions close to the Turkish border.  The border is not sealed everywhere but enough Russian and SAG air (both fixed wing and helicopter) as well as  artillery is positioned on re-captured airfields and other fire bases to make border crossings to and from Turkey extremely difficult.  Pockets of SNC forces remain throughout the north.  These are being attacked as forces are available.

In the Damascus/Homs/Hama/Idlib zone (Phase Line Blue) R+6 forces (including "rallied" FSA unicorns) have pushed to the east of the M-5 main north/south highway but have not gone more than 20 kilometers east of the road.  A Russian Motorized Rifle Regiment is still present with the R+6 forces east of Phase Line Blue.

RuAf strikes have continued south of Damascus without interference from Israel.  R+6 allies are slowly pushing SNC forces south and SW toward the Golan and Jordan.  A lack of Jordanian support for SNC forces is causing problems for the SNC in this sector.  Fighting in the SE Damascus suburbs and south of Damascus appears to be an economy of force play by R+6 so that greater force can be massed in the north and center of the country.

YPG forces and their US Green Beret advisers were driven back east across the Euphrates River by Turkish air strikes.  In response Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles were positioned in fire bases and on defended airfields north and NE of Aleppo where they cover the YPG Kurds.  As a result Turkish air attacks on the YPG Kurds have ended.

- Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base.

- The Russians have obtained contract charter sea lift from China and Cuba.  Ships hired have begun delivering tonnage to Latakia and Tartous from Black Sea ports as well as Chinese and Iranian manufactured materiel.  Many of the contracts for sea lift have been done on a credit basis in return for promises of development and business advantages in Syria and Iraq post war.  The Russian build-up in Syria appears to continue.

- Russia has begun delivering materiel to their Hizbullah allies at border crossing points on the Mediterranean border north of Tripoli, Lebanon.  RuAF air superiority fighters are patrolling the border area and S-400 missiles are at Tartous.  IAF fighters have attempted to intercept shipments south of the Lebanese border.

- Israeli/Palestinian violence in the West Bank continues to grow.

- In Riyadh a Saud family majlis ash-shura (consultative assembly) is in session to consider the adequacy of the country's present governance.  There  are many calls for King Salman's abdication.

- In Iraq IS still holds most of Anbar Province including Ramadi.

- Negotiations seeking an end to the war continue in Vienna.

Requirement:  Forecast developments in this scenario from 2 June, 2016 to 1 November, 2016 (Game Time).  Comments on Turn 3 will close Tuesday night, 10, November, 2015 (Real Time)  pl

 

Comments

[Will]

The heavy cruiser Admiral Flota Sovetskovo Soyuza Kuznetsov, actually the sister ship of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and having the same ski slope launch nose, and other ships have been providing the anti-aircraft cover for the Russian deployment. This was adequate for force protection but not effective in restraining the Israelis. The s-400 system is a game changer. Russia deploys another one to cement the control of the air battle space. It had been severely demoralizing to the SAA. to be bombed with impunity and at will by the IAF. Those days will be over.

The IDF and IAF start to themselves experience low morale. It had been time for another campaign against their neighbors but all the paths have been blocked. What is a Defense force to do? play gin rummy? Oh wait, time to mow the grass in Gaza again. (sigh)

Palmyra, Syria will be captured by July 1st. Captured ISIS will be herded into Severus' amphitheater, blindfolded, but treated humanely.

[Abu Sinan]

Colonel,

Considering the close territory within both the Russians and the US are working in, I was wondering if you have read the article below and have any potential thoughts?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-07/legendary-us-army-commander-says-russia-would-annihilate-us-head-head-battle

[LeaNder]

"SAA", you Americans and your love for abbreviations, which no doubt saves time and makes sense, can be a real challenge occasionally, at least for us nitwit foreigners on this blog:

http://www.acronymfinder.com/SAA.html

Would a narrowing in on military acronyms help?

Should I go back and reflect, if I could have understood, had I read Pat's part 3 war game turn 3 more closely? Or should I simply shut and leave it to experts in this context?

[turcopolier]

LeAnder

"you Americans and your love for abbreviations" Quite deliberate on my part. I am hoping you will learn something new and different. pl

[Rex]

Colonel,

Should the gaming take into account what seems to be a Turkish threat or at least an alternate prospect: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/11/06/turkey-goes-to-war/

Erdogan's ego and recent actions vs. YPG including misleading US, suggest he may be foolish enough to do this. Or do you think the R+6 will dissuade him?

[Will]

SAA Syrian Arab Army, SAR Syrian Arab Republic, IA, probably IAF better, Israeli Air Force, IDF Israeli defense force,

[Abu Sinan]

Syrian Arab Army. الجيش العربي السوري‎, transliterated as al jaysh al arabi as suri.

[Will]

the zerohedge article is based on a politico article. But I can't find any references for a mcmaster-macgregor debate on restructuring the army. they both have written books. macgregor says the Marine Corps is obsolete but yet at the same time wants a nimbler, more co-ordinated army with more teeth than tail. I thought that's what the Marines were. What is mcmaster's view? Col. MacGregor, Retired, commanded then Captain, now Lieut General McMaster at the 73 Easting battle.

Not used to cavalry terms- they use troops and squadrons. I"m used to squads, platoons, companies, regiments, brigades.

MacGregor's book is "Breaking the Phalanx." Bring's back memories of reading about the evolution of the Phalanx, the Theban assymetrical modification, the Macedonians discarding the shields, having longer pikes, and using companion cavalry. But in the end, wasn't the nimbleness of the smaller Roman maniple that prevailed?

[turcopolier]

Rex

That is up to the players. I write the scenarios. pl

[Will]

I can understand the BAATH emphasizing Arab (always took it to mean shared language, culture, heritage, etc and not racial but I could be way wrong) as a way of bridging the divide b/n Shia, quasi Shia, Sunna, and Christians. It was a joint Christian-Alawite enterprise at the beginning. On the other hand, Turks used Islam to bridge over different nationalities. But the Baath should have realized that the Turkoman and Kurds would have bristled at their inclusion in an "Arab" state. Just like the Arabs bristle under being in a "jewish" state. The Israelis are making a huge mistake by casting off the semblance of a secular non-tribal state, even everybody knows what Israel is about.

[turcopolier]

will

"the Turkoman and Kurds would have bristled at their inclusion in an "Arab" state" It is for that reason that neither the French nor the British called what they created in Syria and Iraq "Arab." pl

[turcopolier]

will

"I thought that's what the Marines were." You really sucked up that marine propaganda. The USMC is an oversized and obsolete naval landing force. Doug Macgregor's problem is that he is one of those people who think you can do anything with armor. He told the NSC staff before DS that he could conquer Iraq with two armored brigades. They asked me what I thought of that and I told them "six divisions - minimum." pl

[jld]

I wonder if beside the operations in Syria proper the Russians will loose their cool to the growing pressure from all sides (of US "allies"...) witness the silly threat for sports doping: https://twitter.com/BradCabana/status/663741918334070784
I do not expect the Russians to retaliate overtly (even less so for such a ridiculous thing) but they may retaliate covertly for more serious offenses (airliner ?) and this or the "covert offense" may misfire badly.
Thoughts?

[LeaNder]

Thanks both of you, Will and Abu Sinan.

IAF and IDF I by now of course would recognize.

But while we are at it. ;)

"- Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base."

I am struggling with CAS too for longer now. May even have asked and forgotten were. Close Air Support?

[Will]

me too, had to think about it for awhile, then i figured it out from the context. Close Air Support- CAS

[Origin]

Colonel,

How many divisions did it ultimately take to get the surrender of the Army and how may more for the occupation?

[johnf]

Part of me has always thought that the Sepp Blatter/FIFA houha was all about denying Russia the 2018 World Cup. Why else would a New York District Attorney, of all things, take it upon herself to try and bring the whole structure of world football down? (Its corrupt, but if she's into corruption she could start with something closer to home and far more dangerous like Wall St)?

So there could be an attempt to bring the Russian World Cup down during this time frame, but I imagine it will be ignored because most of the world, fed up with endless preaching from Britain (and our farcical attempts to get the World Cup here in Britain) and the US, will simply ignore any rulings or even set up their own tournament. We'll end up playing Micronesia, the US and Israel in Georgia.

[Will]

ok, tracked down the source. It was a powerpoint presentation addressed to the Hon. John McCain, chairman of the Armed Forces committee. It can be downloaded at scribd. you have to login or register.

https://www.scribd.com/doc/288311708/MacGregor-s-Recon-Strike-Group-Presentation#

MacGregor's blog site is
http://futuredefensevisions.blogspot.com/

[The Twisted Genius]

Abu Sinan and Will,

I found the PowerPoint presentation that MacGregor used to wow McCain. Looks like a push to organize the Army into ACRs (armored cavalry regiments for you LeaNder) with the German Puma armored fighting vehicle as the main weapon system. The proposed organization actually has more organic sustainment units than the current organization. I have no idea how the combat calculator figures out the relative strengths/weaknesses of the opposing forces in his war game.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/288311708/MacGregor-s-Recon-Strike-Group-Presentation

The article's premise that the Russians would annihilate us is journalistic hype. It's my guess that they may very well kick out ass if we try to take them on in the Baltics or Ukraine. On the other hand, we would probably kick their ass on a battlefield far from the Russian homeland. We are still far better at power projection. However, I do think our long affair with COIN has hurt our ability to fight a serious peer like Russia. We should never have to test that proposition on any battlefield.

[Joe100]

Yes, close air support - you are getting there..,

[Joe100]

MacGregor's powerpoint presentation (what else..) of this work is at his web site - http://www.douglasmacgregor.com and also at the following blog http://futuredefensevisions.blogspot.com

[Valissa]

The Russians have pretty much kept their cool throughout the Ukraine fiasco (including the MH17 drama) and it's many bear-baiting attempts. When they became the butt of sanctions, they retaliated mildly and strategically (to benefit local industries).

I expect the "West" to continue it's bear-baiting in many arenas, and I expect Russia will deal with it all in typical stoic fashion and any retaliation with again be mild and strategic. Which of course the Western media will become hysterical about.

Retaliation is something the US does a lot of as part of maintaining the mystique of "exceptionalism." The more Russia makes the US look bad by doing sensible things, which makes the contrast with Western cluelessness obvious, the more I expect Western media to retaliate.

Personally, my current rule for screening news articles is... if the purpose of an article is to push me to be more emotional on a topic rather than more informed, I assume it's credibility is low. The more emotionally activated you are by information, the less power your rational mind has to evaluate reality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amygdala_hijack

Though I am not a fan of Alex Jones, he is correct when he says "There's a war on for your mind." I always bear that in mind when I'm reading news articles, no matter what the source. I also view reading the news as good chance to practice "detachment" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detachment_(philosophy)

[shepherd]

Leander,

Yes, close air support. I am a novice with these topics and find myself looking up a lot of acronyms.

[turcopolier]

origin

It ultimately took six division equivalents to overrun Iraq, so I got that one right. I would have been comfortable with a couple more. It was not all that easy a fight. See "On Point" the US Army's history of the campaign until the capture of Bagdad. I would have been McKiernan's political adviser if Wolfie had not blocked that. I wanted to ride into Iraq with 5/7 Cav at the point. It just looked easy from a distance and because it only took three weeks. The Iraqi Army never surrendered in 2003 or later. The number of troops in the occupation/COIN struggle varied over time. I must admit to a certain loathing for the same people that Bush 41 loathes. pl

[turcopolier]

All

I sure hope you people "play" and that I didn't do this for nothing. pl