Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 3

Situation as of 2 June 2016 (Game Time)

- Combat Situation.  R+6 forces have largely defeated SNC (Unreconstructed FSA Unicorns + mostly non IS jihadi Sunnis who have not fled to Turkey and thence to Europe).

In northern Syria.  The main line of contact with SNC forces is north and east of Aleppo.

SNC held parts of Aleppo are besieged by R+6.  The Syrian government has called on FSA unicorns in Aleppo to surrender under an offer of amnesty and integration into R+6 forces in their own units under government supervision.  There have been a lot of defections from FSA in the context of an ever shrinking perimeter in Aleppo. Russian advisers have done an adequate job of teaching rattenkrieg combat in cities techniques to their allies.  There have been several building collapses along the line of contact within the city as R+6 "mouseholes" its way through walls connecting adjoining buildings to reach streets that can be covered by fire from within.  The Syrian government has called on the SNC to allow civilians to leave the city.  The government has also appealed to migrants now in Turkey and in Europe to return to pacified areas after screening for jihadi allegiance.

R+6 forces have moved to positions close to the Turkish border.  The border is not sealed everywhere but enough Russian and SAG air (both fixed wing and helicopter) as well as  artillery is positioned on re-captured airfields and other fire bases to make border crossings to and from Turkey extremely difficult.  Pockets of SNC forces remain throughout the north.  These are being attacked as forces are available.

In the Damascus/Homs/Hama/Idlib zone (Phase Line Blue) R+6 forces (including "rallied" FSA unicorns) have pushed to the east of the M-5 main north/south highway but have not gone more than 20 kilometers east of the road.  A Russian Motorized Rifle Regiment is still present with the R+6 forces east of Phase Line Blue.

RuAf strikes have continued south of Damascus without interference from Israel.  R+6 allies are slowly pushing SNC forces south and SW toward the Golan and Jordan.  A lack of Jordanian support for SNC forces is causing problems for the SNC in this sector.  Fighting in the SE Damascus suburbs and south of Damascus appears to be an economy of force play by R+6 so that greater force can be massed in the north and center of the country.

YPG forces and their US Green Beret advisers were driven back east across the Euphrates River by Turkish air strikes.  In response Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles were positioned in fire bases and on defended airfields north and NE of Aleppo where they cover the YPG Kurds.  As a result Turkish air attacks on the YPG Kurds have ended.

- Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base.

- The Russians have obtained contract charter sea lift from China and Cuba.  Ships hired have begun delivering tonnage to Latakia and Tartous from Black Sea ports as well as Chinese and Iranian manufactured materiel.  Many of the contracts for sea lift have been done on a credit basis in return for promises of development and business advantages in Syria and Iraq post war.  The Russian build-up in Syria appears to continue.

- Russia has begun delivering materiel to their Hizbullah allies at border crossing points on the Mediterranean border north of Tripoli, Lebanon.  RuAF air superiority fighters are patrolling the border area and S-400 missiles are at Tartous.  IAF fighters have attempted to intercept shipments south of the Lebanese border.

- Israeli/Palestinian violence in the West Bank continues to grow.

- In Riyadh a Saud family majlis ash-shura (consultative assembly) is in session to consider the adequacy of the country's present governance.  There  are many calls for King Salman's abdication.

- In Iraq IS still holds most of Anbar Province including Ramadi.

- Negotiations seeking an end to the war continue in Vienna.

Requirement:  Forecast developments in this scenario from 2 June, 2016 to 1 November, 2016 (Game Time).  Comments on Turn 3 will close Tuesday night, 10, November, 2015 (Real Time)  pl

 

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

" effete court clique gutted the Armenian lords of the east." -

This seems to be a recurring theme in human history; the effete Safavid court that preferred the destruction that the Afghans brought to the continuation of that dynasty, the effete Court of Cho-soon in Seoul that ordered Admiral Yi to dismantle his Navy in the midst of a Japanese invasion, the effete court of Polish Tsars, over many generations, that preferred the extinction of Poland than to any infringement of their feudal privileges.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, Origin every one loves a quick victorious war.

Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan.

[William R. Cumming]

Respectfully disagree. IMO the 2016 Presidential will bring no real solutions since in most instances it is NOT government policies that are the proble but the lack of them. Not even interested persons, including lobbyists can figure out what government policy is, much less what it should be.

Chaos will rule until the 2028 election IMO including potential financial collapse of the DOLLAR bulwark of capitalism.

[William R. Cumming]

Excellent comment IMO!

[jld]

BTW PB seem AWOL.
(a little exercise for Leander along the way...)

[William R. Cumming]

Respectfully disagree that Isaelies are REALISTS.

[Babak Makkinejad]

On this I agree with you.

The very divided as well as incoherent electorate is the source of the problem.

[LeaNder]

Me too, and that feels statistically lower then with you. In spite of my wonderment about your theses. ;)

But why 2028? Did he choose some type of psst-me statistics? what ya think?