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09 November 2015

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Will

The heavy cruiser Admiral Flota Sovetskovo Soyuza Kuznetsov, actually the sister ship of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and having the same ski slope launch nose, and other ships have been providing the anti-aircraft cover for the Russian deployment. This was adequate for force protection but not effective in restraining the Israelis. The s-400 system is a game changer. Russia deploys another one to cement the control of the air battle space. It had been severely demoralizing to the SAA. to be bombed with impunity and at will by the IAF. Those days will be over.

The IDF and IAF start to themselves experience low morale. It had been time for another campaign against their neighbors but all the paths have been blocked. What is a Defense force to do? play gin rummy? Oh wait, time to mow the grass in Gaza again. (sigh)

Palmyra, Syria will be captured by July 1st. Captured ISIS will be herded into Severus' amphitheater, blindfolded, but treated humanely.

Abu Sinan

Colonel,

Considering the close territory within both the Russians and the US are working in, I was wondering if you have read the article below and have any potential thoughts?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-07/legendary-us-army-commander-says-russia-would-annihilate-us-head-head-battle

LeaNder

"SAA", you Americans and your love for abbreviations, which no doubt saves time and makes sense, can be a real challenge occasionally, at least for us nitwit foreigners on this blog:

http://www.acronymfinder.com/SAA.html

Would a narrowing in on military acronyms help?

Should I go back and reflect, if I could have understood, had I read Pat's part 3 war game turn 3 more closely? Or should I simply shut and leave it to experts in this context?

turcopolier

LeAnder

"you Americans and your love for abbreviations" Quite deliberate on my part. I am hoping you will learn something new and different. pl

Rex

Colonel,

Should the gaming take into account what seems to be a Turkish threat or at least an alternate prospect: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/11/06/turkey-goes-to-war/

Erdogan's ego and recent actions vs. YPG including misleading US, suggest he may be foolish enough to do this. Or do you think the R+6 will dissuade him?

Will

SAA Syrian Arab Army, SAR Syrian Arab Republic, IA, probably IAF better, Israeli Air Force, IDF Israeli defense force,

Abu Sinan

Syrian Arab Army. الجيش العربي السوري‎, transliterated as al jaysh al arabi as suri.

Will

the zerohedge article is based on a politico article. But I can't find any references for a mcmaster-macgregor debate on restructuring the army. they both have written books. macgregor says the Marine Corps is obsolete but yet at the same time wants a nimbler, more co-ordinated army with more teeth than tail. I thought that's what the Marines were. What is mcmaster's view? Col. MacGregor, Retired, commanded then Captain, now Lieut General McMaster at the 73 Easting battle.

Not used to cavalry terms- they use troops and squadrons. I"m used to squads, platoons, companies, regiments, brigades.

MacGregor's book is "Breaking the Phalanx." Bring's back memories of reading about the evolution of the Phalanx, the Theban assymetrical modification, the Macedonians discarding the shields, having longer pikes, and using companion cavalry. But in the end, wasn't the nimbleness of the smaller Roman maniple that prevailed?

turcopolier

Rex

That is up to the players. I write the scenarios. pl

Will

I can understand the BAATH emphasizing Arab (always took it to mean shared language, culture, heritage, etc and not racial but I could be way wrong) as a way of bridging the divide b/n Shia, quasi Shia, Sunna, and Christians. It was a joint Christian-Alawite enterprise at the beginning. On the other hand, Turks used Islam to bridge over different nationalities. But the Baath should have realized that the Turkoman and Kurds would have bristled at their inclusion in an "Arab" state. Just like the Arabs bristle under being in a "jewish" state. The Israelis are making a huge mistake by casting off the semblance of a secular non-tribal state, even everybody knows what Israel is about.

turcopolier

will

"the Turkoman and Kurds would have bristled at their inclusion in an "Arab" state" It is for that reason that neither the French nor the British called what they created in Syria and Iraq "Arab." pl

turcopolier

will

"I thought that's what the Marines were." You really sucked up that marine propaganda. The USMC is an oversized and obsolete naval landing force. Doug Macgregor's problem is that he is one of those people who think you can do anything with armor. He told the NSC staff before DS that he could conquer Iraq with two armored brigades. They asked me what I thought of that and I told them "six divisions - minimum." pl

jld

I wonder if beside the operations in Syria proper the Russians will loose their cool to the growing pressure from all sides (of US "allies"...) witness the silly threat for sports doping: https://twitter.com/BradCabana/status/663741918334070784
I do not expect the Russians to retaliate overtly (even less so for such a ridiculous thing) but they may retaliate covertly for more serious offenses (airliner ?) and this or the "covert offense" may misfire badly.
Thoughts?

LeaNder

Thanks both of you, Will and Abu Sinan.

IAF and IDF I by now of course would recognize.

But while we are at it. ;)

"- Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base."

I am struggling with CAS too for longer now. May even have asked and forgotten were. Close Air Support?

Will

me too, had to think about it for awhile, then i figured it out from the context. Close Air Support- CAS

Origin

Colonel,

How many divisions did it ultimately take to get the surrender of the Army and how may more for the occupation?

johnf

Part of me has always thought that the Sepp Blatter/FIFA houha was all about denying Russia the 2018 World Cup. Why else would a New York District Attorney, of all things, take it upon herself to try and bring the whole structure of world football down? (Its corrupt, but if she's into corruption she could start with something closer to home and far more dangerous like Wall St)?

So there could be an attempt to bring the Russian World Cup down during this time frame, but I imagine it will be ignored because most of the world, fed up with endless preaching from Britain (and our farcical attempts to get the World Cup here in Britain) and the US, will simply ignore any rulings or even set up their own tournament. We'll end up playing Micronesia, the US and Israel in Georgia.

Will

ok, tracked down the source. It was a powerpoint presentation addressed to the Hon. John McCain, chairman of the Armed Forces committee. It can be downloaded at scribd. you have to login or register.

https://www.scribd.com/doc/288311708/MacGregor-s-Recon-Strike-Group-Presentation#

MacGregor's blog site is
http://futuredefensevisions.blogspot.com/

The Twisted Genius

Abu Sinan and Will,

I found the PowerPoint presentation that MacGregor used to wow McCain. Looks like a push to organize the Army into ACRs (armored cavalry regiments for you LeaNder) with the German Puma armored fighting vehicle as the main weapon system. The proposed organization actually has more organic sustainment units than the current organization. I have no idea how the combat calculator figures out the relative strengths/weaknesses of the opposing forces in his war game.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/288311708/MacGregor-s-Recon-Strike-Group-Presentation

The article's premise that the Russians would annihilate us is journalistic hype. It's my guess that they may very well kick out ass if we try to take them on in the Baltics or Ukraine. On the other hand, we would probably kick their ass on a battlefield far from the Russian homeland. We are still far better at power projection. However, I do think our long affair with COIN has hurt our ability to fight a serious peer like Russia. We should never have to test that proposition on any battlefield.

Joe100

Yes, close air support - you are getting there..,

Joe100

MacGregor's powerpoint presentation (what else..) of this work is at his web site - http://www.douglasmacgregor.com and also at the following blog http://futuredefensevisions.blogspot.com

Valissa

The Russians have pretty much kept their cool throughout the Ukraine fiasco (including the MH17 drama) and it's many bear-baiting attempts. When they became the butt of sanctions, they retaliated mildly and strategically (to benefit local industries).

I expect the "West" to continue it's bear-baiting in many arenas, and I expect Russia will deal with it all in typical stoic fashion and any retaliation with again be mild and strategic. Which of course the Western media will become hysterical about.

Retaliation is something the US does a lot of as part of maintaining the mystique of "exceptionalism." The more Russia makes the US look bad by doing sensible things, which makes the contrast with Western cluelessness obvious, the more I expect Western media to retaliate.

Personally, my current rule for screening news articles is... if the purpose of an article is to push me to be more emotional on a topic rather than more informed, I assume it's credibility is low. The more emotionally activated you are by information, the less power your rational mind has to evaluate reality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amygdala_hijack

Though I am not a fan of Alex Jones, he is correct when he says "There's a war on for your mind." I always bear that in mind when I'm reading news articles, no matter what the source. I also view reading the news as good chance to practice "detachment" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detachment_(philosophy)

shepherd

Leander,

Yes, close air support. I am a novice with these topics and find myself looking up a lot of acronyms.

turcopolier

origin

It ultimately took six division equivalents to overrun Iraq, so I got that one right. I would have been comfortable with a couple more. It was not all that easy a fight. See "On Point" the US Army's history of the campaign until the capture of Bagdad. I would have been McKiernan's political adviser if Wolfie had not blocked that. I wanted to ride into Iraq with 5/7 Cav at the point. It just looked easy from a distance and because it only took three weeks. The Iraqi Army never surrendered in 2003 or later. The number of troops in the occupation/COIN struggle varied over time. I must admit to a certain loathing for the same people that Bush 41 loathes. pl

turcopolier

All

I sure hope you people "play" and that I didn't do this for nothing. pl

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