17 November 2015


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Ishmael Zechariah

Thanks for this. Per your description, the organization Daash has managed to construct is comparable to that of Hezbullah; IMO no other non-state, or semi state organization in ME, and this includes the Kurds, comes even close. Could you comment on what would have happened if the US viceroy in charge of Iraq had not dissolved the Baath party and fired the military cadres?

Ishmael Zechariah

Babak Makkinejad

Patrick Bahzad:

Do you have any insights as to the French Government's policy in regards to ISIS?

Does France consider ISIS an enemy?

Or is she neutral in regards to ISIS?

Or is ISIS a convenient thing to have around to put military pressure on Iranian, Syrian and Iraqi governments and - to at the same time - frighten the Gulfie Arabs to buy more French military hardware?

Do you know?


Patrick Bahzad,
I was under the impression that most ISIS suicide bombers come from foreign countries like Saudi Arabiya?

Montmartre, I hope to see you again.

Patrick B. Thanks for your extraordinary contributions. If you have time and are so inclined, would like to know your view on pending French spy/surveillance bill.


Pretty odd and/or rhetorical questions. I can't quite make it out.

Maybe it would help if you ask more straightforward. Maybe? I'll try.

Something like: Could you imagine to defend Iran if Isis advances?


Nasty cliffhanger. ;)

You knew, I waited exactly for that, didn't you? :-(

Babak Makkinejad

Not at all; as I write these lines, the economic war waged by the European Union against Iran continues.

I want to know if France is against ISIS or not.

Or is this another "Phony War", just like 1939.

The Beaver


I read somewhere that SOHR is a one-man show run by Rami AbdelRahman in Coventry.
Here is another piece on him: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/uk-britain-syria-idUKTRE7B71XG20111208
He is a mix of Brown Moses aka Eliot Higgins combined with a bit of Chalabi


Ok, we have been there before. ...

Europe follows, personally I like headscarves, women today wear them a lot more elegantly then my grandmother, but I have a somewhat limited understanding for the idea that a woman has to hide her body beneath a burka or the shador for that matter.

I can't speak for Europe, concerning Germany I guess there are a lot of people that would love trade with Iran. They may be anywhere.



Excellent article. Muchas nachos.

Babak Makkinejad

EU did not push 20 million Iranians into poverty over the head scarves of the Iranian women.

William R. Cumming

Thanks for the excellent analysis!

The Beaver

FWIW: What have customs got to do with economic war and sanctions against Iran?
Have I miss something?
Who wears burka in Iran ?


barely germane, but it seems that Izzat Al Douri has reemerged this week with the release of an audio message after his much ballyhooed "death" last month at the hands of the Iraqi militias:

Great analysis of the inner workings of the military apparatus, I'll be sure to pass it on. It warms the cockles of my heart to see such a multicultural equal opportunity scheme in the leadership of the organization.

Patrick Bahzad


Hezbollah is part of the political process in Lebanon too. They also recognize Lebanon as a sovereign State, that they vowed to defend (in their own particular way). there's a fundamental difference here with ISIS.
Regarding their ability to field a "private" or non-state army however, you çight compare the two, but comparing doesn't mean equalling. Hezbollah's abilities on their own turf are pretty high, in particular anti-tank and anti-armour combat and maneuver. that is not the case of the Islamic State.
as for your question, you're asking me basically to give you a counter-factual which is like looking in a cristal ball, considering all the elements in the equation.
What is pretty safe to assume though, is that if Paul Bremer had not issued his CPA orders 1 and 2, things would probably not have gone that çuch out of hand ... Although in the long run, who knows. it's difficult to stabilize a country you just invaded, and even more so when you got neighbors around who don't want you there. when you do stupid things youself, it's like pouring petrol over an already burning fire.

Patrick Bahzad

ISIS is considered an enemy and treated as such. the French have no hidden agenda about it. I know where you're going with this, but i would have serious doubts about any conspiracy type theory ... It's just shere stupidity and short-sightedness that's been at work in France and elsewhere, the usual ingredients basically.

Patrick Bahzad

I resent the "phony war" reference to 1939 ... We've lost 100 000 men in that phony war in 1939-1940 ! i don't call that phony

Patrick Bahzad


some suicide bombers are foreigners, libyans in particular from Benghazi have a high propensity to end up as suicide bombers. Just mentioning this as a side note of course !

I said suicide bombers were most active in Iraq, i didn't say they were actually all from Iraq themselves. And the number of foreign fighters who have come with their families is such now, that you probably even have foreigners' kids who might end up pretty soon with an explosives belt around their waist.


Evasion, nothing, but evasion. Simple as that. Chance of subject. Nothing beneath it. ;)

This feels so repetitive and, Beaver, tiring, really tiring.
I won't repeat once again, I do not and never did support sanctions against Iraq. It's a game I don't like. I also don't like to be forced by anyone to respond as the stereotypical European representative of European politics. Understand.

I don't like to dance to the pipe of someone's talking points. Over and over and over again.

Patrick Bahzad

short reaction: i think some of it is necessary and unavoidable, but the whole law is lacking in judicial oversight.
It's not a silver bullet either and won't stop every potential attack or attacker.

Patrick Bahzad

May I quote you on this ? ... ;-:

Patrick Bahzad

they are definitely multicultural and equal opportunity type employer when it comes to martyr operations, much less so when it's about sharing leadership and power in the top ranks !

The Beaver

It is Iran not Iraq. BTW: most of the European-EU- countries (I have a European passport myself btw) are speaking from both sides of their mouths. Sanctions on one side and yet Trade missions to Tehran just in case all becomes "honky dory" by July 2015.

Like it or not, no one wants Germany to pull another "trading with China" redux with Tehran as far as trade is concerned - so they are all protecting their backyards.

Babak Makkinejad

Evasion, she says.

The questions were not posed to her but to a French Citizen.

Babak Makkinejad

Don't shoot the messenger, I believe that is what the contemporary French called it at that time.

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