"You can pay me now or you can pay me later"

 

"American officials feel Turkey is largely to blame for overreacting to what was a relatively minor violation of national airspace.

Turkey says the Russian plane strayed just over a mile into its airspace, and was there for only 17 seconds when it was fired on by a Turkish F-16. The Russian jet crashed in Syria, but Turkey's president said Wednesday that some pieces of it fell inside his country.

A visibly angry Vladimir Putin spoke on Russian television after the incident and denied the Su-24 ever left Syrian airspace. He lashed out at Turkey, calling its move a "stab in the back" and accusing the Turks of helping ISIS.

Video posted by Syrian rebels appeared to show the body of one the Russian pilots in the hands of Syrian rebel fighters. Russia says the pilot was murdered by the rebels after parachuting to the ground, but the circumstances of his death after ejecting from the stricken plane remain unclear.

Only on Wednesday did Russia confirm the other pilot was safe on its sprawling base near the northwest Syrian city of Latakia."  CBS News

-------------

What Turkey has managed to do with yesterday's attack on a Russian air force fighter is to solidify Russian determination to see Turkey's jihadist friends defeated. 

"You can pay me now or you can pay me later" is an old American expression.  The phrase transmits the thought that retribution for an offense WILL BE EXACTED eventually.

The Turks were unhappy because US and Russian air strikes destroyed a lot of the big Turkish owned tanker trucks with which IS was exporting its oil through Turkey?   Erdogan's relatives will lose money because of the destruction of these trucks?

The Turks were upset because Russia was attacking rebel Turkmen (ethnic Turks who are Syrian) on the Syrian side of the border?   And, what?   They thought they could do this and then hide behind NATO's nuclear shield? 

Well, pilgrims, a price will be paid, maybe not today...  pl 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-s400-surface-to-air-missiles-syria-turkey-fighter-jet-nato/

Comments

[Valissa]

Thanks for the info. Here are more ways Russia is responding.

Turkish businessmen denied entry to Russia after downing of warplane http://www.todayszaman.com/business_turkish-businessmen-denied-entry-to-russia-after-downing-of-warplane_405271.html

Russian businesses boycott Turkey over jet incident https://www.rt.com/business/323400-russia-business-turkey-jet/

Russia is already exacting its revenge on Turkey for downing a Russian warplane http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-turkey-downed-jet-2015-11

[rjj]

WY, FYI Chrome browser users can right click on a text or a page and then left click the translate to English option on the dropdown menu.

[turcopolier]

trey N

If the intercept people were American it WILL leak to the press. BTW if your country sends you on mission with a foreign army that does not make you a mercenary. It's just your job. pl

[Kunuri]

In my opinion, Russians may have already established a de facto air and land buffer zone along the Turkish border following this incident.

[Chris Chuba]

The Turkish claim of warning has already been refuted by their own evidence of entering a complaint of a 17 second intrusion which is obviously not enough time to issue 10 warnings.

If the Turks are saying that they were issuing warnings prior to the Russian Jet entering their space for 17 seconds that by definition cannot be construed as a warning, it's harassment. If anything, it would negate the effectiveness of a valid warning by creating too much noise.

[Medicine Man]

Mr. Habakkuk:
I find these observations informative, so my apologies if my replies to your posts are getting repetitive.

I think you may be onto something. I think that people can be sold on various actions taken in the service of "national interest", but however the case is made there is usually an implicit assumption that the "national interest" being serviced eventually boils down to the defense of the country's prosperity, institutions, and people. When the policies of the country's leaders are providing aid and comfort to groups that have a stated and demonstrated interest in attacking the country's prosperity, institutions, and people, a strong and unavoidable cognitive dissonance is created. People start to look for explanations for the disconnect. While we can't be certain that the explanations seized upon will be accurate, they will almost certainly not be flattering to the elites (who will come across as incompetent, at best).

[Babak Makkinejad]

I understand that but reading Iranian online sources it is quite clear that what I quoted is the public posture of many Iranian leaders and evidently some of the commentators - in so far as people do actually write comments without fear.

I would like to point out that in the Middle East you are dealing with a paradigm, best called "Conspiracy Theory", in which events are viewed as being instigated and directed from either US or UK.

A few weeks ago an Iranian friend mentioned to me his belief that the Shah was removed by US-UK since he was unwilling to fight Iraq; Khomeini was brought in to do just that.

But, even outside of conspiracy theories, one wonders why the US-led Coalition-of-the-Willing has been so singularly uninterested in interdicting the flow of oil tankers in and out of ISIS-controlled territories over the last 14 months?

And how was it that EU could try to strangulate Iran financially while lifting not a finger against ISIS?

All the while maintaining economic embargo against SAR?

I think, judging by what I read, it would be an uphill struggle to try to convince Iranian leaders or public that ISIS is not supported by NATO states and their local allies.

I understand the Obama does not wish to get involved in another land war in the Middle East. I do not think very many foreigner will have any problem understanding it.

But then why try to throw a wrench into the workings of others who are trying to destroy ISIS?

Why, for example, pressure these other countries to close their airspace to Russia?

Or deny them marine insurance?

[J]

Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov,the commander of the Su-24, was awarded Hero of Russia (posthumously). The Nav Captain Konstantin Murahtin was awarded the Order of Courage.

An interesting tidbit, the Russians dismantled a large CW cache at Schchuchye. The cache contained over 2 million artillery shells and warheads. The CW cache contained sarin, VX, and soman a nerve agent. It took them 6 years to dismantle since they were single fused, and will take them another 5 years to destroy the waste.

[SanchoPanza]

WASHINGTON—The Obama administration on Wednesday accused Syria’s government of purchasing oil from the Islamic State and sanctioned a Syrian businessman for allegedly facilitating these transactions.Among those blacklisted is Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, a former president of the autonomous Russian Republic of Kalmykia.However, the timing of the charges against the Assad regime of buying oil from Islamic State extremists gives U.S. policymakers and allied diplomats new leverage to use against Russia as the West pressures Moscow to distance itself from Damascus.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-syria-is-buying-oil-from-islamic-state-1448471418

Madness, pure and simple. In contrast to the many posters on this blog that see the events in Paris, turkish escalation etc to be the writing on the wall for an R+6-Western entente and a move away from Assad Must Go; we are not lead by rational actors and so I will have to predict that more of the same, at best, or massive escalation from both sides at worst is what is in store fof us. Hollande couldnt make an agreement with Putin or make it R+7 even if he wanted to: France is a quasisovereign state at best, a slight step up from Canada in the latitude that the US gives it for doing our dirty work in Africa.

[oofda]

Actually, Pavel was considered to be fairly reliable in the mid-90's. He wrote for "Sevodnya" then. Trenin, a former Army intel officer, is a good source for solid analysis and comment.

[Booby]

J

My experience is 25 years old & maybe outdated; but, in the old days Soviet tactical aircraft radios did not have a preset GUARD channel(the international emergency frequency). Normally intercept warnings are transmitted on GUARD. Even if the Turks transmitted a warning, it is possible that the Russian crew didn't have the ability to receive the warning.

[JerseyJeffersonian]

Thomas,

Yes, I am afraid that Walrus has gotten the measure of this creature, and is correct that he is a toxic narcissist, and due to this character deficiency likely to do something disastrously foolish when his vanity is challenged. If this forthcoming act of condign stupidity only rebounded upon him, I would be happy to see him get his comeuppance; but positioned as he is, I dread the possible extent of the consequences that may rain down upon all of us.

[Cee]

Sorry if this has been posted

Russia: Erdogan’s Son Real ISIS Oil Minister, Behind Su24 Shoot Down

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/11/25/russia-erdogans-son-real-isis-oil-minister-behind-s24-shoot-down/

[Fred]

Ghost ship,

Perhaps the USAF should not fly over Syrian sovereign territory without their permission or following their instructions.

[turcopolier]

Sanchopanza

"France is a quasisovereign state at best, a slight step up from Canada in the latitude that the US gives it for doing our dirty work in Africa." Oh, bull shit! You have no basis for that statement other than your own fantasies. pl

[turcopolier]

Babak

Why? I thought you were paying attention to the conversation here. The US Government is now run by self-obsessed mental midgets enslaved by their narcissist master who is incapable of accepting the idea that he could have been wrong. pl

[eakens]

Here is an old article I found which might be of relevance.

http://www.ibtimes.com/how-1936-montreux-convention-would-help-russia-ukraine-war-1582507

[bth]

For Erdogan and friends the money play is with the KRG oil and gas exports and not with ISIS. It looks to me like he is lining up his family for a 2016 deal with the Kurds on the natural gas pipeline that within a decade or so would be able to replace Russian and Iranian gas sources for Turkey. Reference on Monday was toward this with the Swedes, Kurds and a Turkish publicly financed company to be created in 2016 if press reports are correct. Coincidentally on Monday Erdogan formed his new cabinet with family and friends.

As to trucks, my understanding is that after the hijackings in 2014 and ransoming of Turks by IS, the south bound loads are switched at the border from Turkish drivers to IS sponsored drivers depending on the direction of traffic. So I doubt that the tankers being destroyed in Syria are much more than jobbers or IS owned (stolen) vehicles. The big losers besides the jobbers are likely to be the Syrian rebels that have to purchase diesel from IS through these intermediaries. Interestingly, earlier this week Russia criticized France for bombing Syrian oil infrastructure instead of trucks; a nuanced position to be true, but one worth noting.

As to who in Syria is buying IS fuel, my understanding is that IS has a lock on the diesel market and forces all parties including their Sunni Syrian rebel enemies to buy at a mark-up from them. Fuel is delivered by jobbers who pay a tax or are other wise sanctioned by IS. Probably the same for the Syrian government. Also natural gas fields critical to western Syrian electrical power plants come from IS controlled areas and so must be purchased. That Assad's regime has to buy from its enemies is a sad reality for all and not a matter of choice for Assad as some on an earlier thread suggested. I still marvel that Assad has access to cash of any sort.

Last I think the Russians came away disappointed from their dealings with the Iranians this week. Not confirmed, just a hunch. I suspect the Iranians promised the moon on trade deals this Summer in exchange for Russian intervention (Soleimani) but now that the Russians are committed by pride in Syria as well as national interest the Iranians are pressing the deal over oil and gas concessions to Russian oligarch controlled companies and drawing things out. Russians expected the Iranians to pay them off for helping on the nuclear deal but the Iranians want full sanctions released early next year. Its probably also why Iranians are continuing to arrest and prosecute to conviction various Americans as late as Monday.

Has anyone noticed how quiet Iraq's government has been over the last week or two?

[Laguerre]

Turks are notoriously hair-trigger militarists. That's enough to explain what happened. They're bloody-minded, they don't think about the consequences.

[Laguerre]

Is Obama the master or the slave? I would have thought the latter.

[bth]

Is it possible that the Turks gave warning by radio as the Americans confirmed but that the Russians did not receive it? Radio incompatibility? Perhaps someone with air force experience on the thread could explain what might have happened.

[Haralambos]

J,
Can you supply a link to this information?

[turcopolier]

Laguerre

Janus pl

[bth]

Col, you know this electrical power sabotage to the Crimea on Monday, do you think Erdogan could have had the balls to have done that with local surrogates? It just seems like on the day he confirms his new cabinet somebody went to great lengths to kick Putin in the nuts in Syria and the Crimea, all while Putin was visiting the Iranians with his trade delegation. It could all just be a timing coincidence or perhaps Erdogan really is in fact poking the bear. And if he's poking the bear, what other historical battlegrounds between the Turks and Russians would show up?

[turcopolier]

BTH

IMO the IS oil trade is worth more money. pl