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24 November 2015

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Aka

user1234 & Babak Makkinejad,
but can Putin ignore his public? People would want him to do something to avenge the first official Combat deaths in Syria.

confusedponderer

The good news is: Turkey is unlikely to get NATO support for their 'no fly' or 'safe zone' scheme.

Christina Lin again:

"Interestingly, almost exactly a year ago on Oct. 8, 2014, Germany’s former Chief of General Staff and NATO chairman of the Military Committee, General Harald Kujat (ret.), criticized that Turkey is trying to drag NATO into a Syrian war for its own parochial interests.

In an interview on “Anne Will” ARD-TV broadcast, and stating almost the same words that Davutoglu said on CNN, General Kujat said “look, that’s what Turkey wants to provoke [NATO Article 5]. Therefore it keeps saying ‘we can’t do that alone, others have to participate.’”

In face of then ISIS massacre of Kobane Kurds, he continued bluntly: “Turkey basically wants to drag NATO into this situation because the actual goal of Turkey is to neutralize Assad…ISIS’s actions and what’s happening to the Kurds are subsidiary…and it has to be clearly said that an ally who behaves like this doesn’t deserve the protection of this alliance, an ally who doesn’t intervene for protection in a such tragic situation doesn’t deserve protection himself.”

The former NATO general recommended removing Patriot batteries from Turkey to send a signal, and in August 2015 they were removed."

http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/german-general-no-nato-art-5-for-turkeys-planned-buffer-zone/

PeteM

What surprises me is how easily the Turk/US fighter jet took down the Russian SU. The Russian pilot was repeatedly warned and must have known when targeting radar locked onto his craft. From the beginning of the Russian air campaign they have challenged and violated Turkish airspace with only diplomatic repercussions

Did this sense of unchallenged superiority and invulnerability lead to another deadly miscalculation and a possibility of an expanded conflict or was this part of a plan. Putin's rather unhinged public response to this incident may mean real trouble lies ahead.

JJackson

Thanks for the clarification. Would I be right in assuming type 1 get priority of supply and is there anyway of telling from either the location or footage of strikes if the rows of sitting ducks were at a type 1 or 2 location?

Ghostship

Re: S-400s

Although a number of newspapers reported that the Russians had installed S-300s/S-400s at the airfield in Latakia with the appearance of in photographs of Russian radar equipment normally associated with S-300s/S-400s). However, none of the photographs shown included any S-300/S-400 TELS (transporter/erector/launcher) so it was unlikely that the complete system had been installed in Syria. Maybe that will now change if Russia is asked to close Syrian airspace to the Turks.

Ghostship

Most of it seems to go to a company owned by Erdogan's son who have just become Turkey's energy minister.

The Twisted Genius

Putin not only stated that this was a stab in the back, but that it was a stab in the back by terrorist accomplices. Turkey called for a NATO meeting. What comes out of this meeting later today will determine how far this goes. Patrick Bahzad is absolutely right. This is more serious than what the "experts" are admitting. If NATO reacts with stunned inaction, that would be a blessing. At a minimum, I would expect some seriously aggressive Russian radio electronic combat along the border and no let up in the R+6 drive to seize the border areas.

Charles Michael

About frontier: since the insurrection in this area largely inhabited by Turmen (from turkish asend)Erdogan is claiming a 10 km strech inside the internationaly recognized line.
IMHO the su-24 was inside the legal borders.

No way Turkey would have asked prior OK from Nato. BTW imagine the bureaucratic hurdle to get an approval in time and a permanent licence to shoot without the rules of engagment is even more out of the question

Lavrov meeting in Ankara has been canceled, of course. What will be Russia reactions, they won't tell and they will take their time.

BostonB

You're either with the jihadists-terrorists or against them:

Pentagon backs Turkey’s version of events, blames ‘incursion’ of Russian jet
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/24/pentagon-backs-turkeys-version-accuses-russian-fig/

confusedponderer

Turkey likely has NATO AWACS cover, and they are in the joint NATO air picture network, so liklely NATO has an idea. Their silence is instructive.

Also, the Turks have Boeing 737 AEW&C of their own, with the same modern AESA radar that's on the Australian 'Wedgetail' aircraft.

crf

Maybe he meant to say "is it not inappropriate to think this happened in Syria?"

SanchoPanza

Can anyone enlighten me as to how the turk military command structure operates in the case of such an egregious escalatory action? Would the greenlight have come straight from the court of the Sultan himself or does a military prerogative come into play?

Joe100

Not sure YouTube is helping with the "FSA" message - videos showing up like this one of rebels shooting at a descending pilot, along with the earlier video showing discussion around a dead pilot are certainly challenging the "moderate opposition" argument in an easy for "all to understand" fashion (except needing translation of arabic speech where relevant).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GPmmtrMJyHs

Hard to dress this stuff up and I suspect this will further enrage then Russians...

crf

Of course they would.

Turkey is a very sovereign country. And, if other Nato members had any sense, Erdogan would be right now receiving phone calls warning him that Turkey is going to become a lot more sovereign unless he rapidly mends this problem.

turcopolier

joe100

These are Turkmen. They speak a kind of Turkish, not Arabic except for the religious exclamations. pl

JJackson

The terrain in this footage looks more plausible.
https://www.rt.com/news/323264-turkish-f16-fighter-shot-Su24/

Stueeeeeeeee

The Turks may not give a damn but they are not that stupid. I doubt they would act so wantonly without having their asses covered. Our response that the incident is a Turkey Russian matter is revealing, I think the Turks got the go ahead from us.

I doubt the Turkeys planned for the YouTube clip of the pilots getting shot while they were parachuting. Cooler heads may have prevailed if it was just the downing of the plane but the YouTube clip will force Putin to act.

confusedponderer

PeteM
"What surprises me is how easily the Turk/US fighter jet took down the Russian SU. The Russian pilot was repeatedly warned and must have known when targeting radar locked onto his craft."

If the pilot had good reason to believe he was flying in Syrian air space, he might have dismissed the Turkish warnings as bluff and stayed on course in accordance with his orders and mission.

Theory:
A Turkish fighter could have been led to intercept by an air controller on the ground or on an AEW&C aircraft silently, or have been cued to the target through datalink, then aqcuire the target visually and launch a heat seeking missile. No radar warning. Orders could have been given orally.

That'd be an assassination rather than an intercept, an act one could call with some justification a 'stab in the back'.

Macgupta123

Is Assad buying oil from ISIS?
E.g., Nov 16 US Dept of State daily briefing:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2015/11/249541.htm

QUESTION: Have you --

MR TONER: Please.

QUESTION: -- had discussions with Russia about getting the Assad government to stop buying oil from ISIS?

MR TONER: Have we had any discussion with the Russian --

QUESTION: About putting pressure on the Syrian Government to stop buying oil from --

MR TONER: Well, I know that – as you’ve heard, the Secretary has spoken to this, that there’s this – he calls it a symbiotic relationship between Assad and ISIL where one buys resources off of the other. And certainly – I can’t speak to specifically in the last weekend or so or on Saturday or in recent discussions, but this is something we’ve raised with the Russians before because they have access to and can influence Assad.

turcopolier

crf

I meant what I wrote. These Turkmen (ethnic Turks of a kind) were operating in Syria. The wreckage seems to have hit the ground in Syria and the pilots were killed in Syria. pl

turcopolier

Stueee

Present Turkish political leadership is cunning and clever but not intelligent. they are faith blinded as IS is faith blind. pl

Ghost ship

Russia "is prepared to act brutally against ISIS"
I should f%$£ing well hope so! So, by implication, the United States isn't.

Cee

The old Wesley Clark:

In October, 2007, Gen. Wesley Clark gave a speech to the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco (seven-minute excerpt in the video below) in which he denounced what he called “a policy coup” engineered by neocons in the wake of 9/11. After recounting how a Pentagon source had told him weeks after 9/11 of the Pentagon’s plan to attack Iraq notwithstanding its non-involvement in 9/11, this is how Clark described the aspirations of the “coup” being plotted by Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and what he called “a half dozen other collaborators from the Project for the New American Century”:

Six weeks later, I saw the same officer, and asked: “Why haven’t we attacked Iraq? Are we still going to attack Iraq?”

He said: “Sir, it’s worse than that. He said – he pulled up a piece of paper off his desk – he said: “I just got this memo from the Secretary of Defense’s office. It says we’re going to attack and destroy the governments in 7 countries in five years – we’re going to start with Iraq, and then we’re going to move to Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.”

Wesley Clark today is blaming Russia for this chaos. What happened to him?

Chris Chuba

I am pretty certain that NATO can only be invoked if a member is attacked on their own soil. For example the U.K. did not use NATO membership to get material support in reclaiming the Falklands and the U.S. couldn't for our various overseas adventures.

If the Turks get attacked outside of their country, I don't believe that NATO members are obligated to come to their defense. Turkish jets over Syria would be fair game.

turcopolier

Macgupta123

As I explained to JJackson there are two IS oil distribution systems. IMO oil from the small guys system reaches Syrian government held territory as it reaches all other surrounding territory including that of the Kurds and the Iraqi government. This does not imply a Syrian government agreement with IS. pl

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