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24 November 2015

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confusedponderer

"NATO ambassadors called on Ankara to show "cool-headedness" on Tuesday following an emergency meeting in Brussels, after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border, diplomats said.

Diplomats present at the meeting told Reuters that while none of the 28 NATO envoys defended Russia's actions, many expressed concern that Turkey did not escort the Russian warplane out of its airspace.

"There are other ways of dealing with these kinds of incidents," said one diplomat who declined to be named."

http://tinyurl.com/okx22fq

So there are some in NATO apparently who have a very good idea of what Turkey is up to and aren't particularly thrilled.

On the other hand the NATO hawks, likely involving Breedlove, Nuland, Stoltenberg and the 'new Europeans', are content with Russia 'having been humbled' and 'taught a lesson' and are quietly delighted.

NATO's ambivalent and mild reaction IMO reflects that split.

It is pretty clear that Turkey plays the NATO hawks animosities against Russia here for their own reasons.

While NATO does not have an interest to get drawn into Turkish expansion at Syrian expense, Turkey glosses that over by hyping Russian threats to Turkish air space - air policing is a big deal for 'New Europe' - and so tries to get them on board by suggesting to them that Turkey, too, is at the forefront of defending Europe from 'Russian aggression'.

If only it was so.

Russian aggression? In defence of Syria, an ally, and against Islamist extremists against local surrogates of a NATO ally (supported by that ally in violation of int'l law) on territory of a third country about to be annexed (in violation of int'l law) by a NATO ally? Cough.

I agree it was an ambush.

It's like a nut patrolling his lawn with a bullhorn and a shotgun, warning the neighbour to get off the lawn when clearly the neighbour isn't even near it. That'd make no sense, unless the plan would be to to justify shooting the neighbour later. Q.e.d. He was on my lawn, I have told him 20 times!

So the Turks may well have warned the Russians for 20 times that the jet was in Turkish airspace. if the aircraft was in Syrian airspace, the pilot would be unlikely to change course in light of such warnings. Why should he?

It doesn't dispell the suggestion of an ambush - in fact, the 20 warnings support it in light of the very short duration of the actual airspace violation:

Turkish F16 have Link 16 now.

http://tinyurl.com/qxv9b48

That is, they get a complete electronic air situation picture with friendly and hostile aircaft even when being electronically silent themselves. Likely, the Turkish F16 would have been cued by ground radar, AEW+C and data link, and were waiting for the shot all the time.

So that Russian jet is on a mission near the Turkish border, safely in Syrian air space, in the area Turkey wants to have their no-fly/safe zone. The Turks warn all the time, which must be a distraction. Russian pilot eventually makes a mistake and when the airspace violation happened the Turks finally had their excuse and shoot him down for a 17 second airspace violation.

That is, what the shooting was deliberate, and what the 20 warnings were all about was to produce something interceptable as a justification towards NATO.

Paul Escobar

Oofda,

Great point. Why don't Putin & Tsipras get together and create an easy way to get back at Turkey?

Tsipras gets to burnish some sorely lacking nationalist credentials with the right...and feed his pro-Russian leftist base a little raw meat. He gets a rabid hunter just waiting for a stray Turk to enter Greek territory.

Putin gets the chance at retribution. His people could be ordered to warn & offer 18 generous seconds. After that, BLAMO!

How would Turkey react? The Russians would be like ISIS, hiding behind the prospect of a larger conflict (in this case, a confrontation with Greece). Would Turkey attack the Russians on Syrian soil & trigger WW3? I think not. And I think Erdogan's cowardice would be exposed.

Best,
Paul

Richard

Pardon my ignorance

But what kind of warming would the Turkish pilot have issued every 30 seconds, that he would reasonably expect the Russian pilot to receive and respond to, that would have told the Russian pilot he was approaching the Turkish border?

Richard

I noticed that recently when the Turks attacked two ISIS held villages in Syria they had US F-15s flying cover for them.

anatol

That's the whole point of my post - the original warning about Turkey getting ready to shoot down a Russian plane was made in October

Ghost ship

That was a very stupid thing to do, particularly posting videos on Youtube - unlike ISIS and many of Al Qaeda affiliates who can move around a lot, the Turkmen are probably defending their own little patch of the world so they have a "return address" and a sponsor, Turkey, who can't really protect them without going to war.

turcopolier

Richard

Why would they need "cover?" pl

J

Colonel, TTG,

Putin has ordered the deployment of the S400 systems to curb Turk air activity. Also the Moskva has been ordered closer to provide protections with their anti-air systems. Bomber runs will now have CAP escorts. I don't think the Turks want to mess with Russian CAP, it would not be in their best interests (my opinion), it could run their day.

Booby

Tyler,

Revenge is a dish best served cold. I just hope that the US & other non-Turkish aircraft bombing in Syria are coordinating with the Russians. That is especially true for US aircraft flying out of Turkey or near the border. My guess is that we'll soon see a no-fly zone over Syria; but, it will not the one that the Borg want.

Poul

The Turks are taking a step back.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia-is-our-friend-neighbor-turkish-pm-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=91653&NewsCatID=510

Quote:
"Davutoğlu claimed that Turkish F-16 jets opened fire at the Russian warplane while it was in Turkish airspace, although radar printouts shared by Turkey’s General Staff appeared to show that the plane was hit in Syrian airspace."

Poul

More information from the Turks.

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/195370-turkey-seeks-to-ease-tensions-after-downing-of-russian-warplane

quote:
"The Turkish ambassador to the United Nations Halit Cevik said in a letter to the Security Council that two planes were involved, one of which was shot down while the other left Turkish airspace.

He said both planes had flown 1.36 miles (2.19 kilometers) into Turkish airspace for 17 seconds from 0724 GMT Tuesday."

johnf

The Turks obviously did this to try and provoke Russia and to scare those Westerners who were starting to wander into the Russian anti-jihadi fold. Big, Bad Russia.

The Russians appear to have played this provocation brilliantly.

Day One. They make an immense hoo-ha. Terrified of an out-of-control Russian explosion, the Westerners, especially Europeans, give mealy-mouthed support to NATO and Erdogan - all the time cursing him under their breath - and then hope and pray that Russia won't go ballistic - so to speak.

Day Two. Suddenly the Russians come out all smiling and friendship. Of course we're not going to start WWIII. Turkey is still our friend. Western leaders collapse in gratitude - still cursing Erdogan under their breath. Good Old Vlad! Maybe there's something in this "Assad must stay" stuff.

The Hollande/Putin thing is going to be fascinating.

MartinJ

My feeling is that Erdogan is inviting a Russian response that he can sell as disproportionate to the Turkish public and use it as a pretext to insert the Turkish military into an enclave on the border. He is inviting a confrontation with Russia before they have enough forces on the ground to oppose such an action.

I assume that however horrific the generals in Ankara believe this policy to be there is enough established support for Erdogan in the chain of command that will obey such an order. Perhaps someone knowledgeable on that can comment.

Putin is aware of that I presume. The balance has to be between:

1) Russia's need for a response to ensure the continued safety of its air crews as part of ongoing operations

2) Not to be dragged into a fight with Turkey for which it is not (yet) prepared for.

JJackson

pl
No problem with the first sentence but, given the list of runners and riders in the next US presidential and its recent incumbents, it does beg the question which world does the US inhabit?

JJackson

FB Ali and Optimax
re. the maps.
The BBC had two maps one from the Russians and one from the Turks but on closer examination the boarder is not in the same place. The Russian map has a triangular Turkish promontory into Syria and the Turkish one is more rectangular. Google maps looks more like the Russian map.
The two BBC maps appear in the video on this page http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34913010

confusedponderer

PeteM,
against an F16 approaching radar silent, only cued in by AEW&C aircraft or Link 16 all of these defensive measures are useless. The Turks probably simply got a visual ID on the Sukhoi - there was fair weather apparently - got their seeker lock and fired a sidewinder at it.

Probably, all the Russian crew got was the missile warner going off. If the distance was short they had very little time for evasive maneuvres or countermeasures like flares.

JJackson

Would their be a black box and if so would it have recorded the radio chatter and exact route? If so that may sort out some of the discrepancies.

The Beaver

@ dc

We will find out today after the meeting of Hollande and Putin. May be Hollande will get the same answer that Putin gave to Obama in Ankara: Assad is part of the discussion with respect to Syria.

Fred

Will,

Do you have any evidence for the claim the Russians have tactical nukes in Syria?

Matthew

CP: So Obama knew the plane was hit in Syrian airspace and still defended the Turks?

See https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/669318351290781698

Will


Let me think about this. Turkey supports ISIS. Everybody knows the foreign Jihadists come thru Istanbul airport, and then are supplied by the Turks. Turks are members of NATO and our allies; therefore, we support terrorism. Should we sanction ourselves? The Turkish CIA equivalent chief:

"“ISIS is a reality and we have to accept that we cannot eradicate a well-organized and popular establishment such as the Islamic State; therefore I urge my western colleagues to revise their mindset about Islamic political currents, put aside their cynical mentalité and thwart Vladimir Putin's plans to crush Syrian Islamist revolutionaries,” - Anadolu News Agency quoted Mr. Fidan as saying on Sunday.

Fidan further added that in order to deal with the vast number of foreign Jihadists craving to travel to Syria, it is imperative that ISIS must set up a consulate or at least a political office in Istanbul. He underlined that it is Turkey’s firm belief to provide medical care for all injured people fleeing Russian ruthless airstrikes regardless of their political or religious affiliation. [the Israelis are also a "caring" people in this regard]

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/11/turkish-intelligence-chief-isis-is.html
"
further- false flag attacks, no problemo (from wikileaks)
"I bet this was never done to Gaza. lol Also, the purported Syrian government gas attack designed to lure us into bombing the legitimate, secular, Syrian government in order that the head choppers could take over that country.

"... [i]f legitimacy [of a possible incursion into Syria] is an issue, I can simply send a few men there [across the Syria-Turkey border] and have them launch missiles over to us. Legitimacy is not a problem. Legitimacy can be manufactured.""

The Twisted Genius

One of the pilots was rescued by SAA and possibly Russian commandos and returned to Latakia last night. Two S-400 systems reportedly on their way to Latakia. R+6 ground offensives in the area increasing in intensity. Unconfirmed report that Green Berets are training unicorns in Salma area where two RT and a TASS reporter were wounded by an AT round yesterday. My guess is that it's CIA/SAD operatives in Salma if anybody. Lavrov agrees with Hollande that the Turkish-Syrian border should be closed. Russia doesn't want a wider war, but will punish Turkey with various economic measures which will hurt Erdogan.

Wunduk

The airspace violation is claimed by Turkey to have been 17 second in duration and less than 2 miles in depth and length.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/291002800/Turkey-Letter-to-UNSC-on-Shooting-Down-SU-24-Plane-Nov-24-2015

turcopolier

JJackson

Military aircraft do not have "black boxes." pl

turcopolier

Richard

"they had US F-15s flying cover for them" Prove it. So, you think the US flew top cover for Turks bombing the YPG Kurds whom we support? How does that make sense to you? pl

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