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29 November 2015

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J

Colonel, TTG,

The Russians are posing the question as to how in the hell did U.S manufactured TOW's wind up in the hands of Turkmen terrorists operating inside Syria, that the murder of Russian pilot LC Oleg Peskov has brought to light. Mark Toner State Department spokesman gave away the farm on that question. Quote: "First, we have been supplying weapons to...." end quote.

What we have is a prime example of an over $2 billion and climbing fiasco by a failed bureaucracy whose ONLY task should have been and should be HUMINT collection and NOTHING ELSE.

IMO some things are better left in DoD hands.

walrus

Thank you for your balanced and sober assessment Harper. I saw something about this a few weeks ago but didn't post anything - there is a now declassified DIA report that indicates that the DIA called it correctly regarding ISIS in 2012, but the report was either ignored or doctored.

That report is available here:

http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf

MRW

Thank you, Harper.

mbrenner

I infer that there are 3 questions to be answered.

1. How did the various Intelligence agencies assess the emergence of ISIL at various dates:2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, etc? 1b How dis they assess al-Qaeda/al-Nusra in Syria at those times?

2. What did the chiefs of those agencies actually report to the White House?

3. What did the White House (President and staff) make of those latter assessments and what did they do in response to them? 3b. Did that response include instruction to cook future Intelligence?>

J

Colonel, TTG,

Russian press is indicating that the Syrian Turkmen commander who murdered Russian pilot LC Oleg Peskov, is a Turk ultra-nationalist Alparslan Celik and son of a former mayor in the Elazig province. Celik is also a member of the Grey Wolves which carried out political murders in the 70s.

The body of LC Oleg Peskov is now in Turkey and awaiting transfer to Russia. It remains unclear how Turkey managed to recover LC Peskov from the Syrian Turkmen militants. Hmm.....

bth

What does Pres. Obama see in Clapper? I have not been able to figure it out.

different clue

J,

Where the Grey Wolves connected to or overlapped with what some Turks were calling the Deep State? Were Grey Wolf murders on behalf of this Deep State?

bks

I would understand pressure from the Oval Office to produce rosy public assessments, but it's hard for me to believe that any chief executive would instruct his staff to fake internal reports: It's an invitation to be blindsided by reality. So I can see Clapper or someone in CENTCOM wanting to put his thumb on the scales, but not Obama.

The Twisted Genius

J,

That's simple. Erdogan supports and directs those Turkmen militants. They're butt buddies. That's how Turkey recovered LTC Peskov's body.

The Twisted Genius

bth,

Obama sees an ass kissing sycophant, nothing more.

Croesus

Did the US give tacit support to ISIS in Iraq in its efforts to persuade Maliki to grant a SOFA? Or to counter increasing Iranian influence in Iraq?

The Twisted Genius

walrus,

That DIA report is an intelligence information report. As it says, it's not finally evaluated intelligence. It came from the field. My totally unclassified guess is that this is from the Defense Attache in Baghdad. As I believe Colonel Lang mentioned before, the information is probably the assessment of the situation provided by a defense official of a third country, perhaps another defense attache. We don't know what the analysts did with the report or how it figured in any subsequent intelligence assessments.

bth

Off topic, but we need to begin to think through the implications of sustained low cost oil and gas in 2016. Russia will have problems. So will Venezuela. Iran will have to crowd its way into the market. The US and Canadian O&G industry needs to be at about double these rates. Regional banking and local real estate will also be impacted. In this era perhaps it may be global. If the feds jack interest rates then it will only aggravate the problem by impacting developing currencies causing wage deflation to follow commodity deflation. China will have to adjust it's currency downward I think in 2016.

crf

Not cleaning house at the beginning of the Obama presidency: that was a signal to the bullies and incompetents that they would be safe and that they could keep on doing what they were doing for the new boss, same as they did with the old boss.

Barish

It's very important to keep the allegiance of this character in mind, as it painfully shows one aspect that's been overlooked vis-a-vis Turkish security forces' hostilities with Kurdish fighters on both sides of the Turkish-Syrian border. Because so far, the factions at play remained in this bi-polar, clear picture, with blame apportioned to whichever side the beholder considered to be worse.

I would also think of this particular flavour of extremism being another possible candidate of both the bombing of a peace-rally in Ankara earlier in October, as well as the assassination of lawyer Tahir Elçi last Saturday, who had made this memorable quote directly prior to his demise:

Biz buradan çağrı yapmak istiyoruz. Biz bu tarihi bölgede bir çok medeniyete beşiklik etmiş ev sahipliği yapmış bu kadim bölgede insanlığın bu ortak mekanında silah, çatışma, operasyon istemiyoruz. Savaşlar, çatışmalar, silahlar, operasyonlar bu alandan uzak olsun diyoruz.

We here want to make a call. In this area [he is directly referring to Diyarbakır], which has been the cradle of civilizations, this ancient abode of mankind as a whole, we do not want weapons, conflict or military operations. We say begone! to wars, weapons and operations in this area.
--------------------------------

This of course does not rule out that the Turkish nationalists, such as the Gri Kurtlar/"Grey Wolves" aren't acting so much independently than that they are utilized by the Turkish (deep) state for its own ends.

Babak Makkinejad

Gulfies have them, I think.

Babak Makkinejad

A loyal man.

J

NYTimes has an interesting bio on Erdogan

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/03/12/the-deep-state

J

Hope this will help you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_Wolves_%28organization%29

J

Colonel,

In 2014 Turk MIT was discovered by Turk Police smuggling large quantities of munitions (ammo and mortars) marked FRAGILE and hidden under medicine boxes to Syria. The Turk Police who made the discoveries were charged with treason and espionage, along with journalists who happened upon the MIT to Syria imbroglio. All the MIT toys were destined for ISIS hands. Red faced Turk officials have made so many contradictory statements of denial and that the toys were destined for the Syrian Turkmen, that nobody believes them.

walrus

BKS, you have never met, let alone worked for, a narcissist. Yes, they do "instruct their staff to fake internal reports" by the simple method of firing or bullying anyone who presents information that does not coincide with the narcissists version of reality in which they are the movie star. I kid you not.

I have even seen a chief of staff fired for having the temerity to correct a glaring error by a narcissist CEO.

Yes. It is an invitation to be blindsided by "real" reality. but NOT the narcissists reality.

Emad

To me what's interesting in this story is not stove piping intelligence; which is to be expected of every administration.

I'm interested in the "workforce" pressured to fix intelligence "around the policy". What is the mix of uniformed military, civilian government employees and beltway bandits?

My understanding is that CENTCOM has turned into a den of contractor types who're probably much easier to pressure and manipulate. Even if they enjoy the same "protections" as government employees, the operative word for them is the next contract, not speaking truth to power, as often advertised as an analyst's job.

bth

By 2012 was there anything the US could have really done to stop the rise of IS in light of an ongoing civil wr in Syria and an incompetent and teligiously divided Iraqi government?

turcopolier

Emad

"stove piping intelligence" Stove piping normally means a function being confined to a single chain of command. How are you using the phrase? "Even if they enjoy the same "protections" as government employees," Well, you know very well that contractors DO NOT enjoy the same protections as regular government civilian employees. pl

The Beaver

"A representative of one rebel group supplied with TOW missiles said his fighters were not currently suffering from a shortage of the weapon, as they had earlier. He complained, however, that they still only had one launching tripod for the missiles. His group is fighting south of Aleppo.

TOW missiles have been supplied to rebels under a program of military support for vetted Syrian groups that has in some cases included military training by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, including on how to use TOW missiles."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/us-mideast-crisis-syria-arms-idUSKBN0TE1KJ20151125#0pObfmk7Uy6pOQvF.97

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