Sic Semper Tyrannis

The Lipka Tartars - TTG

For the past few weeks, even as Germany has tried to drag Europe into welcoming Syrian migrants, the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have been debating a ban on burqas. There have been no reports of burqas being sighted in the Baltics, so the idea of prohibiting them seems rather superfluous, like banning nude sunbathing in Antarctica. In Lithuania, when the burqa ban was first proposed by the chairman of the country’s national security committee, most officials dismissed it as absurd. (“I suggest you look around the streets to see how many women cover their faces,” says the country’s justice minister, Juozas Bernatonis. “I have seen none.”) Yet the very discussion testifies to the fear triggered in central and eastern Europe by the European Union’s plans to cope with its migrant crisis by distributing asylum seekers among its member states.

One person who finds anti-Muslim sentiment troubling is Adas Jakubauskas (pictured), the chairman of the Lithuanian Tatar Union. “It hurts me as a Muslim and a believer when politicians engage in this [burqa-ban] publicity,” says Mr Jakubauskas. An instructor in law at a university in Vilnius, Mr Jakubauskas looks like any typical Lithuanian professional, but it might be misleading to call him “well-integrated”: the Lithuanian Tatars have no need to integrate, having been in the country since the late 1300s.  (The Economist)

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The story of the Lipka Tartars is an interesting one. The first Tartars came to live among the ancient Lithuanians when both peoples were unsullied by the great monotheistic religions. Perhaps they found solace in their mutual shamanistic beliefs. The next wave of Tartars, now Muslims, came at the invitation of Vytautas the Great, now Christian. Tokhtamysh, Khan of the White Horde, suffered a series of defeats in battles against Tamerlane. He, along with his entire clan, was granted asylum by Vytautas. 

This kindness was repaid on the battlefield. In 1399, Tokhtamysh fought at the side of Vytautas at the Battle of the Vorskla River, where they were both soundly defeated by Khan Temur Qutlugh and the Golden Horde. But Vytautas learned a valuable lesson in this defeat. In 1410 along with King Jogaila and the Polish Army, Vytautas lead the Lithuanian Army against a European Army assembled by Grand Master Ulrich von Jungingen and the Teutonic Order. Vytautas employed the tactic of a feigned  retreat that he learned so painfully at the Vorskla River. Jamal Ad-Din, the son of Tokhtamysh, led a thousand Tartar archer horsemen along with the Lithuanian light cavalry in a charge against the Teutonic artillery. The Tartar-Lithuanian calvary quickly fell back in a feigned retreat. Von Jungingen, sensing a grand victory, fell for the trap. He sent half his knights in a disorganized pursuit of a seemingly defeated enemy. Later, as the main battle with the Polish army raged, the Lithuanian-Tartar army returned to the battlefield attacking von Jungingen’s Army from the rear. The victory was complete. Grand Master von Jungingen and more than a dozen of his top officers were executed by order of Grand Duke Vytautas.

This was not the last of the Lipka Tartars. They had their ups and downs with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth including the Lipka Rebellion of 1672. They reconciled and fought with Jan III Sobieski at Vienna in 1683 defeating the Ottoman Turks. The Lipka Tartars participated in the largest cavalry charge in history along side the famous Polish winged hussars. The Lipka Tartars wore sprigs of straw in their headgear to distinguish themselves from the Tartars fighting for the Ottomans.

The martial history of the Lipka Tartars would continue to 1939 when the Polish 13th Cavalry regiment (Wilno) would be the last Polish Army unit carrying on the fight against the German invaders.

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Today I despair for Lithuania. They spent centuries fighting for their very existence against seemingly insurmountable odds to emerge with their culture intact as an independent country only to now fret over nonexistent burqas. Get a grip, my brothers and sisters. You lost almost a quarter your population to emmigration since independence. Think about taking in the 1,105 Syrian refugees mandated by the EU. Welcome them as the new Lipka Tartars. Take them in as equals, allowing them to embrace the best of their culture while you show them the best of yours. Be brave enough to know that your society will not be destroyed by these refugees. For God’s sake, you withstood the vicious onslaught of NKVD divisions and Stalin’s attempt to literally eradicate your society. Even if the number of refugees eventually increases by ten times, as so many fear, don’t marginalize them to the fringes where they will fester into a sore that will only cause you problems. Be brave my brothers and sisters.

TTG 

Straw poll on presidential preference in 2016

OK, folks.  Just to clear things up we are going to hold a straw poll on SST as to your present presidential choice.  If you are not eligible to vote in a US presidential election, you can vote here but please tell us if you are not an American citizen.  Please give us some idea of your sex and age.  pl

The Saudi Islamic State (FB Ali)

Many of us here have been pointing out that Saudi Arabia is not very different from the Islamic State (or Daesh). And, that the former appears to be clandestinely supporting the latter. This aspect of reality is studiously ignored in the West, and indeed throughout much of the world. Probably because of the Saudis' financial clout and their oil supplies, and the West's long-standing alliance with them.

 It therefore comes as a breath of fresh air when a major media publication in the West, the New York Times no less, publishes a piece that bluntly tells the truth about the Saudi state (even though, perhaps not surprisingly,  it had to go as far afield as an Algerian journal to import a column from there!).

 The author, Kamel Daoud, starts his piece with this direct statement: Black Daesh, white Daesh. The former slits throats, kills, stones, cuts off hands, destroys humanity’s common heritage and despises archaeology, women and non-Muslims. The latter is better dressed and neater but does the same things. The Islamic State; Saudi Arabia.

 He concludes his remarkable column with this ominous warning: Daesh has a mother: the invasion of Iraq. But it also has a father: Saudi Arabia and its religious-industrial complex. Until that point is understood, battles may be won, but the war will be lost. Jihadists will be killed, only to be reborn again in future generations and raised on the same books.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/21/opinion/saudi-arabia-an-isis-that-has-made-it.html?_r=3

HARPER: GEN. FLYNN LAYS INTEL SCANDAL ON OBAMA'S DOORSTEP

 

The Pentagon’s Inspector General is investigating charges by analysts at the Central Command that higher-ups in the Tampa headquarters “cooked” their intelligence analyses to satisfy White House demands for “good news” reporting on the war against the Islamic State.  That investigation has moved into an advanced phase, and there are now also probes underway by Senate and House oversight committees.

While the complaints by the analysts focus ostensibly on Maj. Gen. Steven Grove, Centcom’s intelligence chief, and his civilian deputy Gregory Ryckman, there are clear indications from sources within the Pentagon that the real scandal goes up to the Oval Office, via Gen. James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence.  In what some describe as a rerun of Vice President Dick Cheney’s infamous personal visits to CIA headquarters to discipline analysts who disputed the “Saddam WMD” fairy-tale, and his and Donald Rumsfeld’s creation of the Office of Special Plans, a SecDef intelligence unit staffed with neocons that created tailored intelligence to justify the March 2003 Iraq invasion, Clapper reportedly put pressure on Gen. Grove and others in Tampa, to suppress contrary intelligence estimates about the success of the US military actions against ISIS.  Part of the IG investigation now focuses on whether some emails and staff reports were deleted to hide evidence of the intelligence tampering.

In recent interviews, Gen. Michael Flynn, who President Obama fired as Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in August. 2014, because of persistent DIA analyses that disputed his claims of success in the Global War on Terrorism, called for a “top down” approach to the investigation.  Flynn correctly argued that the tailoring of intelligence is always aimed at the intelligence community’s number one client—the President of the United States.  If there is pressure on analysts to modify their evaluations, it is always to satisfy the ideological beliefs of the President or his closest advisors.

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/11/24/former-obama-dia-chief-intel-probe-should-focus-on-white-house/

In the case of the war on the Islamic State, the President has consistently overstated the success of the US program, often without any grounding in intelligence assessments.  Just prior to the Nov. 13 Paris attacks by the Islamic State, President Obama pronounced the group to be “contained.”  During his 2012 presidential reelection campaign, Obama famously declared that Al Qaeda Central was defeated, following the killing of Osama Bin Laden.  On Sept. 12, 2012, his claims were proven false, when Al Qaeda linked terrorists stormed two American compounds in Benghazi, Libya, killing Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other American officials.

Gen. Clapper, a longtime critic of humint, who shut down critical programs when he was Director of DIA in the 1990s, has been at the center of a number of scandals since being appointed by President Obama as Director of National Intelligence early in the Obama presidency.  He lied under oath before Congress, claiming that there were no bulk surveillance programs against American citizens. 

If Gen. Flynn is correct, and the scandal actually begins at the top of the Obama Administration, the question is whether or not the IG or the Congressional oversight committees will take up that challenge, and approach the investigation in a fashion that does not end with a few mid-level scapegoats taking the fall, but leaving the system of political pressure on intelligence analysts intact.

If there is to be a genuine success in the war against the Islamic State and other jihadist groups, intelligence will be key.  This is doubly true now that it appears that ISIS has “gone global” and has adopted blind terror tactics as a key part of their arsenal of asymmetric weapons.  It is in that larger context that the investigations take on special significance.

Sultan Tayyip's triumph

"Leaders of the European Union and Turkey were set to sign an agreement on Sunday offering Ankara cash and closer ties in return for help in stemming the flow of migrants to Europe, draft conclusions of their summit showed.

Aware of a sense of desperation in Europe for a solution to a crisis that has called into question the future of its passport-free travel zone, Ankara has been driving a hard bargain.

Diplomats said the 28 EU governments had struggled through Saturday to agree a final offer.

The draft deal seen by Reuters made clear the nature of the trade-off, involving Turkish help in handling the flow of migrants to the EU, expected to reach 1.5 million people this year alone, and the EU offering cash and restarting talks on EU accession.

"Both sides will ... with immediate effect, step up their active cooperation on migrants..., preventing travel to Turkey and the EU, ensuring ... readmission provisions and swiftly returning migrants who are not in need of international protection to their countries of origin," the draft said."    NY Times

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IMO Sultan Tayyip has won this round in his contest on behalf of Islam and against the West.  The migrants who have flooded Europe nearly all came from camps in Turkey or they transited Turkey.  Turkey is very nearly s police state under Sultan Tayyip.  In addition to the massive armed forces there is the jendarma (gendarmerie) which is also massively resourced and ubiquitous.  A mouse can't squeak in Turkey without Sultan Tayyip knowing in what key it sings.  You have noticed that the Turks did not try to keep the migrants from crossing the narrow straits to the Greek islands?

IMO Sultan Tayyip and his vizier Davutoglu sent the refugees to Europe in the belief that the pressure of the inundation and its inevitable cargo of embedded IS infiltrators would cause the Euroweenies to fold.  The turbaned ones (figuratively) were obviously right.

Turkey will receive a bribe of 3.2 billion dollars (3 billion Euro) in return for keeping further migrants out of Greece and for taking some back (maybe).  They will also receive accelerated processing of their desired membership in the EU.  As Davutoglu said today "now we can move forward in managing OUR continent."

The tughra at the top is that of Suleiman the Magnificent.  Sultan Tayyip evidently does not have one yet.  Suleiman conquered most of the Balkans for Islam and very nearly captured Vienna.  He besieged the city.

Sultan Tayyip is marching in Suleiman's footsteps.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/29/us-europe-migrants-turkey-idUSKBN0TI00520151129#tupp09TI9JiGVMLr.99 

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/11/29/world/europe/ap-eu-europe-migrants-the-latest-.html

Of Sultans, Muscovites and "no fly zones"

 

"Washington is urging Ankara to seal off a 100-kilometer stretch of borderline with Syria currently used by Islamic State for transportation of fighters and supplies into the Syrian war zone. The Turkish Army would need an estimated 30,000 personnel to do this.

The Obama administration is urging Turkey to ensure Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) in Syria receives no supplies through the Turkish border, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing sources in Washington. The request involves sealing off part of the frontier between the western Turkish town of Kilis and Jarabulus in eastern Syrian.

“The game has changed. Enough is enough! The border needs to be sealed,” the WSJ cited a senior Obama administration official as saying in a message from the US government to Turkey. “This is an international threat, and it’s all coming out of Syria and it’s coming through Turkish territory.”

The US has called particular attention to a small part of the border between Jarabulus and Cobanbey, which is being used extensively by IS to transfer munitions and other supplies from Turkey to Syria, and foreign fighters in both directions."  RT quoting heavily the WSJ

https://www.rt.com/news/323825-us-turkey-syrian-border/

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Did we really not know that Sultan Tayyip  (Someone should do his tughra) is the most effective secret ally of the Baghdadi Caliphate?

"All the world wonders..." and rightly so. 

Well pilgrims, I still remember quite a lot of the capabilities of US reconnaissance and there can have been little doubt of Turkey's trafficking with the enemy.  Little doubt.  This is probably yet another case of  the Obamanites simply ignoring reality if it conflicts with their group think R2P nonsense.  They would much rather concentrate on extracting agreement from some town to a DoJ consent agreement about the injustices wrought upon people of color.  They will not, of course, try that with Chicago.  Obama wants continuing access to the money in the pockets of Rahm Emmanuel's friends.

My guess is that Sultan Tayyip will smile and nod and promise and do the opposite of what he says.  He is playing what someone here who was familiar with the Raj called the "fooling the sahib" game.  pl

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"As CJTF-OIR reported on Friday, the US-led coalition had made no sorties against targets in Syria bsince Thursday, while airstrikes against Islamic State in Iraq continued, with the coalition making 18 strikes on terrorist positions.

On November 24, a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber, which had been bombing IS positions. Moscow says the bomber was in Syrian airspace which the F-16 violated, while Turkey claims the Russian jet crossed the Turkish border and was repeatedly warned before the attack.

Both the pilot and the navigator of the Su-24 ejected. The pilot was killed by a militant group while parachuting to the ground, while the rescue operation for the Russian navigator was successful to a certain extent: a Marine died providing covering fire in the rescue team drop zone and a helicopter was lost after it was hit with an American-made anti-tank TOW missile the terrorists are armed with.

After the incident, Russia’s Joint Staff took the decision to enhance air defenses at the Khmeimim airbase south of the Syrian port of Latakia.

The following day, on November 25, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced the immediate deployment of S-400 misslies to Syria.

S-400 Triumph system missile launchers were airlifted to Syria by Antonov An-124 Ruslan super-jumbo aircraft 24 hours after the decision was announced on Wednesday."  RT

https://www.rt.com/news/323815-syria-s-400-us-airstrikes/

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this sounds like there now IS a no-fly zone in Syria.  pl 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tughra

 

'Decline" by Richard Sale

 

 Trump is the vile prophet of the ignorant, truculent and misinformed. In everything he says, there is something narrow, philistine, and under bred. He loves the applause of his followers, but at bottom, Trump displays no respect for them unless they agree with everything he says however dubious and unsound. 

Trump’s followers are like people who travel deep into a desert waste in order to bury their IQ’s there. They are uncouth, crass, belligerent characters. They are further evidence of a general collapse of moral and intellectual standards. One man, bulky and built like an alongshore man was seen shouting with demented violence at Muslims, “You are all terrorists!” You are all terrorists!” 

Or savor these quotes from Molly Ball’s article on Trump which just appeared recently in The Atlantic and which I had not read until today:

“In today’s time, if I’m a white person who’s proud to be white, I’m a racist,” says 44-year-old Kevin Stubbs, a land surveyor who shared his Marlboro Reds with an African American T-shirt vender on the way in. “Yet a minority can say that.”

“I do not feel safe,” says his fiancee, Loree Ballenberger, 42. “People are coming in across the border, and we have no idea where they are coming from.” She recently called her congressman to urge him to vote for a bill limiting Syrian refugees. (??)

“I remember seeing Muslims around the world celebrating after 9/11,” says Chip Matthews, a 63-year-old retired carpentry teacher in glasses with tinted lenses. So what if it was the Mideast and not New Jersey? “The basic point, I think, is true,” he says.

“I look at the pictures of those refugees and they all look like able-bodied young men, 18 to 30 years old,” says his wife, Patrice Matthews, a 62-year-old retired school-district worker. Matthews doesn’t see why we have to be the ones to help these people. “It’s their country—they need to take it back,” she says.

Basically the speakers are white lower middle class men and women. Their ideas appear to come from barroom conversations. The speakers have no culture. They have no knowledge, no perspective. They make us feel that delusion and ignorance flourish everywhere. Apparently they have never read a book. Reading is a high culture function, said Huizinga, and he is right. In reading the mind absorbs much more quickly; it is perpetually selecting, bracing itself, it skips, it stops to think and recall; it exercises a thousand mental activities which are denied to the mere listener. The ignorant don’t read.  The speakers above don’t think; they are merely repeating what they have heard. 

Trump never apologizes but then he has no need to. He is never wrong. He does not make mistakes.  If caught in a lie, he stubbornly repeats it in a tone of belligerent defiance.Some of us were raised to think that the thought and actions of the Pope were infallible.  Clearly, we had never met Trump.  His followers either suffer from blindness or insensitivities of temperament, combined with certain witlessness. In Trumps followers, sentiment is allowed the larger part of forming judgments, in direct contradiction of the critical intellect. A vulgar and misinformed hunch is used to justify a choice that is based on untutored and base intuition. Unfortunately, the rabble is incapable of making distinctions, and as a result Trump is viewed with a perverted reverence. Trump’s followers lack the tools of knowledge and breeding required to analyze things perceptively. Their thought consists of repeating vulgar, hackneyed slogans, and their make up and emotions are fueled by resentment of others. They see things in black and white, and therefore see badly. They resent the effort of thinking. 

There is an old fable in which an aggressive crow, a disagreeable bird, the terror of his neighborhood, awoke one day and gazed out at the forest from the top of his tree. The crow was very conceited in his views, and since he was quite certain he was right, he never altered them. So on another day when the aggressive crow declared that, “The sky is a beautiful yellow,” a new bird appeared, a crow, wearing spectacles down his nose. He was known as being very wise and full of cunning. As the two birds talk, the old wise crow then asked the bully, “Do you ever see the color blue?” 

The aggressive crow was dumbfounded. “What do you mean, ‘blue’? What sort of question is that? I have been flying through these woods and treetops for years and I have never once ever seen ‘blue.’” And the aggressive crow became quite angry and started to flare his feathers. “Where would I see ‘blue,’ as you call it?” 

That is Trump in a nut.  Whatever he can’t perceive or mentally grasp doesn’t exist. The logical, the objective, the incisive, are basically ignored.  Violent prejudice and passion overwhelm the desire to ascertain the truth. Higher and purer forms of civilization paid homage to the striving to become accurate in our judgments, but Trump’s proclamations are a blizzard of insults and misinformation. Trump believes that his popularity among the least educated of Americans is a sign of strength and evidence of his personal appeal.  He has neither. His ideas are all downgrades of popular clichés and common restments. One sees in him an upsurge in ruthlessness, an increase of hatred for whatever he does not understand. Trump sees enemies everywhere as do his docile supporters. 

At bottom, Trump is a vulgar, blustering lout. He has not any vestige of courtesy and disdains the idea of honor.  One sees in his pronouncements and behavior a deterioration of American critical sense and its decline of judgment. He is the new Huey Long, the American Mussolini. Mussolini, used poison gas in Abyssinia, and sent one of his wives to an insane asylum, and murdered his son by lethal injection, and Trump has not yet sunk to those vile depths mainly the American public wouldn’t stand for such crimes. The American political systems prevents them. But make no mistake: Trump lacks any sense of restraint which makes him very dangerous. 

Once the conflict between good and evil took place inside the souls and hearts of individual men. It now takes place between rival groups, each of which lays claim to represent the highest and most disinterested virtue.  The conscience of the individual has been replaced by the conscience of the mass which is free to indulge in any sort of wickedness. The result will be the onset of a new barbarism and violence of the most brutal sort.

 

A Setup With American Help? By Walrus.

There are reports this morning that the Russians believe that the shooting down of their fighter aircraft by the Turkish Airforce was an ambush carried out with American complicity. At least one American Airforce commentator, on Fox News no less, agrees with them. My personal opinion is that we have not heard the last of this and if President Obama sanctioned such an  operation then the consequences for America are dire.

I am  not a military pilot but I know enough that air to air interceptions and shoot downs do not "just happen" considerable planning of fuel and ordnance loads are required. The Turkish aircraft were apparently "loitering with intent", the jihadists on the ground may also have been warned and President Putin believes the flight details for the intended Russian strike were leaked  or "shared" by America to Turkey from the deconfliction centre.

Putins comment:

"We told our US partners in advance where, when at what altitudes our pilots were going to operate. The US-led coalition, which includes Turkey, was aware of the time and place where our planes would operate. And this is exactly where and when we were attacked. Why did we share this information with the Americans? Either they don't control their allies, or they just pass this information left and right without realizing what the consequences of such actions might be. We will have to have a serious talk with our US partners."

 Russian allegations are covered by Zerohedge at the link below:

Russian Allegations.

The "Gaffe" by a former U.S. Airforce General on Fox News, agreeing with the Russians is here:

Pre Planned Attack. 

Obamas initial reaction to the shooting down is chilling:

"Hours after the Turkish shootdown of a Russian warplane along the Syria-Turkey border, U.S. President Barack Obama and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on the need to de-escalate tensions and prevent further incidents.

The White House, in a statement late Tuesday, said the two leaders conferred by phone and voiced their commitment to developing a transitional political process for peace in Syria and international support for defeating Islamic State extremists. The statement also reiterated U.S. support for Turkey's right to defend its airspace.

Earlier Tuesday, Obama, speaking in Washington, cited the downing of the Russian plane as evidence of an "ongoing problem" with Russia's military operations in Syria."

Folks in my opinion, this is Obamas "what could he possibly have been thinking?" moment.

Then there is the surfacing issue that the mainstream media is trying to avoid. The complicity of the U.S. and Turkey conniving to try to ensure that ISIS remains in being at least until the Assad regime is destroyed. In Turkey and Israels (and hence Americas) case, so that they can pick over the bones of Syria at their leisure. Then of course there is the Erdogan fils profitable oil trade with ISIS which is directly under threat from Russian air attacks.

My concern now is that Two narcissists, Presidents Obama and Erdogan, are going to drag us into WWIII.

Walrus 

Obama as "Bottom" Richard Sale

Some of Obama's errors:

 

Undermining Hosni Mubarak and letting the Muslim Brotherhood come to power,

 

Overthrowing Gadhafi in spite of his anti-terrorism stance.

 

Helping fuel a coup in Ukraine.

 

Trying to undermine Assad with no replacement in sight.

 

Staring away as Turkey behaves more and more badly.

 

Obama's cracked anti-terrorism coalition which pictures Saudis and Qatar and the Gulf states as allies even though they support iSIS.,

 

Good grief!

Russia and Turkey's foreign policy objectives in Syria (by CP)

The probably deliberate shootdown of the Su-24 over Syria by Turkey has underlined that Russia in Syria is vulnerable, despite Russia's great power. Russia is for one hobbled by geography, and Russia is also vulnerable to relative local superiority of forces of opposing nations like Turkey.

Recent events have  highlighted Russia's problem of supply, and its problem of supply in light of attrition, and attempts to open up new fronts to distract Russia from its main objectives.

♦ Threat to Russian lines of communication

There are basically two ways for Russia to supply its operations in Syria - one is by sea, or more precisely, from the Black Sea through the Dardanelles, the Mediterrean Sea - and the other by air and land over the Caucasus region (Azerbaidjan), through Iran and then Iraq. All these supply lines are long, and run east or west around Turkey which sits in the middle - an obstacle when it wants to.

Under the Montreux convention the Bosporus is open to Russian naval vessels in peacetime. In times of war the Turks could close it to Russia - bottling them up in the Black Sea and/or trapping them in the Mediterranean. Replenishment by sea or reinforcement to the Mediterranean would then have to come from the Baltics, which would take  weeks, entirely through NATO controlled waters.

Had the shootdown resulted in the successful invocation of NATO's collective defence clause under Art.5 the resulting state of war would have allowed Turkey block the Dardanelles for all  Russian naval vessels.

♦ Crimean diversions - Tartars!

Crimea is Russia's main port of supply and HQ of the Black Sea Fleet - most of the Russian reinforcements to Syria originated there. The electricity lines that run from Ukraine into crime have been sabotaged by Crimean Tartars, who also obstruct reconstruction.

The Crimea blackout also left, as collateral damage, parts of south-eastern Ukraine without electricity - apparently worth it. The incident shows the weakness of Ukraine's central government in face of rabidly rightist forces, since apparently the saboteurs enjoy political cover. For Putin, the incident is a distraction - a small defeat which may hurt him in the polls, hands him yet another problem to solve, at a cost - and it gives a small petty victory to the Ukies, the Tartars (and their probable Turkish backers), gets Crimea back into the news, and it hurts Russian operations at least somewhat.

Crimean tartars were subjected to brutal persecution under Stalin for their real (there was a Tartar Waffen SS unit) and alleged cooperation with the German invaders. Turkey also sees them as 'unredeemed' Turks. Their cause resonates in Turkey also, as an estimated 5 million Crimea Tartars (who went there since the days of Catherine the Great) are said to live in the diaspora in Turkey.

I had Turks tell me to my face that, as far as they are concerned, Crimea is rightfully Turkish. Turkey lost Crimea 232 years ago when Catherine the Great annexed it. It's been a while since.

Saints, Strangers, the Wampanoag, the Powhatans and "Jane"

 

In the US today is the day of Thanksgiving.  Various regions claim primacy in the establishment of this treasured American holiday.  In Canada it is quite another day celebrated earlier in the Autumn,

The American holiday celebrates the survival of the first Anglophone settlements in the 17th Century.

The chronology:

Jamestown - 1607.  Famine the first couple of years, first Indian onslaught (Powhatans) in 1609, The population eventually began to grow and by 1620 there were 1200 English at Jamestown.  The importation of Africans did not begin until the 1660s or thereabout.  The first Blacks were sold into the colony by the Dutch as indentured servants with a limited term of servitude.  As a result there are African-Americans whose ancestors were never slaves. There was a massive surprise Indian attack one Sunday morning in 1622 that killed 25% of the colonists in an hour or so.  A large number of European women were taken into slavery by the Indians and never seen again.

Plymouth - 1620.  There were 102 passengers  brought to America in an old cargo ship, the Mayflower.  Half were separatist members of a pietistic Protestant sect and the others were useful people embarked because of the desire of the London investors in the venture to have some people in the group who would do more than pray, write sermons  and sing psalms.  My five ancestors on board were in the more or less secular group.   They all arrived in what is now eastern Massachusetts at a moment in which most of the coastal Indians had very recently died of diseases contracted from European cod fishermen.   These fisherman operated fish processing camps on the Maine coast in which they split and dried cod for transport to Europe.  The Indians had little resistance to what were common European diseases.  80 to 90% mortality is reported in some areas.  These Indians had died before the arrival of colonists.  The colonists (the Pilgrims) stupidly managed to arrive in November and by Spring half were dead including two of mine.  At that point fate intervened and the local Wampanoags decided that they needed the remaining English as allies against the Narragansetts, Mohigans and other tribes who had not suffered so much in the plagues.  That saved the colony.  The Wampanoags signed a treaty with the Plymouth survivors and provided an Indian agricultural adviser, a man named Squanto, who had worked for the English fishermen, who spoke good English and had visited Europe.  The colony never really prospered and after 10 years (1630) had 300 inhabitants.

Massachusetts Bay - 1630.  In that year a mass immigration from England to the Boston area began.  This was created by the Puritan notables of England.  The effort was highly organized, well financed and it brought many thousands of godly people, and some who were not so godly.  In accord with Calvinist thinking, potential immigrants were screened for resources, church membership or other essential qualities before being allowed to enroll in the migration.  The immigrant stakeholders brought money, servants and continuing support from the Puritan establishment in England.  The settlement grew very rapidly and soon absorbed Plymouth.  Mass migration ended in 1650.  The colony was a grand financial success.  Among my many ancestors at the Massachusetts Bay was Major John Mason who arrived early and by 1637 was the over all colonial commander in the Pequot War in Connecticut.  He. like Miles Standish at Plymouth, was a long serving English soldier from the wars in the Netherlands where little quarter was asked or given and he gave little to the Pequots.  Most of Mason's "troops" in this struggle for eastern Connecticut were Narrragansetts and Mohigans, the very men the Wampanoags had feared. 

Because of the literary gifts of William Bradford, the long serving governor at Plymouth that colony has somehow become the mythological place of foundation of what became the US.  In fact it was a rather insignificant place that had been narrowly saved from extinction through the medium of the necessities of Indian tribal politics.

My mother's people were among the founders of New France from 1617 onward until about 1670, but that is a different story.

The young woman pictured above has been given the name "Jane" by the archeologist researchers at Jamestown, Virginia  She was from the south coast of England.  She was 14 years old in 1609 and had been in Virginia only a few months when she died of starvation that terrible winter.  Her bones were found in a buried trash pit along with horses, dogs, cats, etc.  Her dead body had been butchered and eaten by people who had known her.  The injuries involved in the butchering process tell the scholars that she was quite dead before they started to cut her up and that the people who did this could not stand to look at her face while cutting her up and breaking into the back of her skull.

The restoration pictured above was made from her reconstructed skull.  

What were you saying about the Pilgrims?  pl 

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/pilgrims/player/?flavour=mobile

http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/saints-and-strangers/

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/jamestowns-dark-winter-full-episode/2427/

Keep Calm and Kill the Bastards - TTG

MOSCOW, November 25. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has described as correct the offer of French President Francois Hollande to take steps to close the Syrian-Turkish border. He said as much while talking to reporters on Wednesday.

"Going back to the news conference of Presidents of France and the United States Francois Hollande and Barack Obama in Washington, I noticed that the French president suggested taking steps to close the Turkish-Syrian border to stop both the flow of militants and terrorist financing," the Russian minister said. "It is significant that President Obama did not respond to this in any way, but I think it’s the right suggestion."

"I hope that President Hollande will brief us on the issue tomorrow (during the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin)," the Russian foreign minister said. "We would be ready to seriously consider the steps necessary for this."

"Many say that, by closing this border, we will effectively curb the terrorist threat in Syria," Lavrov added.  (TASS News Agency)

************************

This guy Lavrov, like his boss, is a pretty cool character. He made an astute observation concerning yesterday’s Hollande-Obama news conference. I think the Russians are going to push hard for a joint declaration calling for the closing of the Turkish-Syrian border when Hollande sees Putin tomorrow. At that point, it is my opinion that both Obama and Erdogan will not know whether to sh*t or go blind.

The R+6 are already pushing to accomplish this border closing with vigorous and violent pushes further north towards the border. Convoys of any kind are being struck if they move to or from the border areas. The SAA seized control of the Raqqa-Aleppo road just east of Kuweires Airbase and cut an IS supply route.

R+6 forces are operating near the border crossings according to a description of the rescue of the SU-24 navigator. An 18 man Syrian commando team linked up with a 6 man Hezbollah already sitting near a border crossing point to effect the rescue. That Hezbollah team was performing a SICTA (strategic intelligence collection and target acquisition) mission. Such teams are probably all along that border right up to Jarabulus. 

Syrian Kurds are ready to start cooperating with Russia. Salih Muslim Muhammad, the leader of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), said, “Until now we haven’t had the opportunity to establish cooperation with Russia. But we would be happy if such opportunity appears. Russia hasn’t yet approached our region as it is active in the west. I think in the future we’ll be able to establish a dialogue on military cooperation with the Russian side.” It’s only a matter of time. 

Closing the border and neutering Erdogan’s ability to support IS and the unicorns is the best revenge for the deliberate downing of the SU-24 and the execution of Lt Col Oleg Peshkov. It is also the most effective COA to eventually destroy IS.

TTG

"You can pay me now or you can pay me later"

 

"American officials feel Turkey is largely to blame for overreacting to what was a relatively minor violation of national airspace.

Turkey says the Russian plane strayed just over a mile into its airspace, and was there for only 17 seconds when it was fired on by a Turkish F-16. The Russian jet crashed in Syria, but Turkey's president said Wednesday that some pieces of it fell inside his country.

A visibly angry Vladimir Putin spoke on Russian television after the incident and denied the Su-24 ever left Syrian airspace. He lashed out at Turkey, calling its move a "stab in the back" and accusing the Turks of helping ISIS.

Video posted by Syrian rebels appeared to show the body of one the Russian pilots in the hands of Syrian rebel fighters. Russia says the pilot was murdered by the rebels after parachuting to the ground, but the circumstances of his death after ejecting from the stricken plane remain unclear.

Only on Wednesday did Russia confirm the other pilot was safe on its sprawling base near the northwest Syrian city of Latakia."  CBS News

-------------

What Turkey has managed to do with yesterday's attack on a Russian air force fighter is to solidify Russian determination to see Turkey's jihadist friends defeated. 

"You can pay me now or you can pay me later" is an old American expression.  The phrase transmits the thought that retribution for an offense WILL BE EXACTED eventually.

The Turks were unhappy because US and Russian air strikes destroyed a lot of the big Turkish owned tanker trucks with which IS was exporting its oil through Turkey?   Erdogan's relatives will lose money because of the destruction of these trucks?

The Turks were upset because Russia was attacking rebel Turkmen (ethnic Turks who are Syrian) on the Syrian side of the border?   And, what?   They thought they could do this and then hide behind NATO's nuclear shield? 

Well, pilgrims, a price will be paid, maybe not today...  pl 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-s400-surface-to-air-missiles-syria-turkey-fighter-jet-nato/

Turkey Shoots Down Russian Fighter

 

"Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on Tuesday after repeated warnings over air space violations, but Moscow said it could prove the jet had not left Syrian air space.

It was the first time a NATO member's armed forces have downed a Russian or Soviet military aircraft since the 1950s and Russian and Turkish assets fell on fears of an escalation between the former Cold War enemies.

A Kremlin spokesman said it was a "very serious incident" but that it was too early to draw conclusions.

Footage from private Turkish broadcaster Haberturk TV showed the warplane going down in flames in a woodland area, a long plume of smoke trailing behind it. The plane went down in area known by Turks as "Turkmen Mountain", it said.

Separate footage from Turkey's Anadolu Agency showed two pilots parachuting out of the jet before it crashed. A Syrian rebel group sent a video to Reuters that appeared to show one of the pilots immobile and badly wounded on the ground and an official from the group said he was dead."  Reuters 

------------

Perhaps the time has come to suspend Turkish membership in NATO before Erdogan drags us all into war with Russia.  pl

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idINKBN0TD0P020151124

A Modest Political Proposal For Syria

So, the Iranians think Assad should stand for election in a new government?

I agree.

there should be an election under UN supervision that includes all Syrians; those in Syrian government controlled land, those in rebel controlled land, those in exile in, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Europe, Canada and in Europe.  They should all vote.  All should also be allowed to stand for election and that should include Bashar Assad. 

The argument is made by the Borg (led by or leading Obama) that Assad has lost his "legitimacy" (always a tricky thing to establish).  If "legitimacy" in this case means the consent of the governed, well, pilgrims, a fully supervised election, would establish whether or not that is true.

Assad won an election like that a few years back, so...

Now, I fully understand that parties perhaps unknown will try to rig the election using the UN as an instrument.  Well, lets see them do that while we all watch.  Let's see it...

IS and the other jihadi groups are not interested in the consent of the governed, but the US supposedly is so interested. 

Let's do it!  pl

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/iran-deputy-minister-says/2266242.html

Intrique in Rojava - TTG

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani said the Peshmerga could be part of a coalition to liberate Raqqa, the city in Syria that the Islamic State group (ISIS) considers its capital. "As part of a powerful international coalition, it is also possible that the Peshmerga are part of the forces to liberate the city of Raqqa," Barzani told French weekly Journal du Dimanche.

Later Sunday, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian urged attacks on Raqqa and Mosul, ISIS’ stronghold city in Iraq, as he declared that  French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will be ready for attacks on ISIS starting Monday. In a televised interview, Le Drian declined to say when jets on board the carrier were going to strike ISIS-held territory. He emphasized that coalition forces should aim to retake Raqqa. He noted that only a ground operation would ultimately dislodge ISIS from its positions, regardless of the scope of US, French and Russian airstrikes against the militants.

Noting the comments by Barzani about a possible Peshmerga role in fighting for Raqqa, Le Drian said that the Kurds or the Free Syrian Army could be the boots on the ground for victory against ISIS. “I saw this morning that President Barzani says 'I'm willing to go to Raqqa,' Le Drian said. “Well yes, we will have to organize ourselves to take Raqqa. Tomorrow's objective is Raqqa."  (rudaw.net)

********************

What’s the strategy here? I would think Barzani would rather take Mosul than assist in any meaningful way to march on Raqqa. He must have grander designs... or is some Borg Gríma Wormtongue whispering lies into his ear. I’d advise him to think twice before he puts his trust in the West. Although we have come to his aid from time to time, we have also dropped him like a hot potato when it suited our purposes.

While the Syrian Kurds are doing quite well for themselves, they don’t seem overly excited on capturing and occupying Raqqa. It’s not their land. Sure they sent a contingent to assist in taking Sinjar, but their cooperation with Barzani’s Peshmerga was tentative at best. They also gratefully remember Peshmerga assistance at Kobane. Even so, the thought of Peshmerga forces marching through Rojava on their way to Raqqa and staying must leave an uneasy feeling among the ranks of the YPG.

And what’s Le Drian’s game? Does he really think the “Free Syrian Army could be the boots on the ground for victory against ISIS?” I seriously doubt the R+6 will grant the Unicorn Army safe passage to Raqqa. Maybe LeDrain is referring to the Arab tribes of the newly created Syrian Democratic Forces dominated by the YPG Kurds. Perhaps this is FSA 2.0. 

My guess is that the West is loathe to let the R+6 coalition triumph leaving Assad firmly at the helm of a still intact Syria. They want a piece of Syria for the Syrian opposition. My hope is that France, at least, decides that crushing ISIS is a far more important goal than continuing to dally with the “Assad must go” crowd.

TTG

Images of the US/Canada border

Folks - I don't want to put up more barriers at the border, but we must understand that the usually used border control points on major roads and at airports can simply and easily be by-passed.  pl 

"Barrel Bombs and Bullshit" by Walrus

Consortium News has published an article by Robert Parry entitled "Tangled Threads Of US False Narratives" about the outright misinformation preached by Washington regarding the Middle East and Russia. The article was retitled "Barrel Bombs and Bullshit" by the less than reverent Zerohedge.com. It is worth reading not because it confirms the SST accepted wisdom (The Borg) but because it examines the hypocrisy of the mainstream media in more detail. It also comes to the same conclusion; departing too far from reality in relations between nuclear armed States risks frying the plane

============

One way to view Official Washington is to envision a giant bubble that serves as a hothouse for growing genetically modified “group thinks.” Most inhabitants of the bubble praise these creations as glorious and beyond reproach, but a few dissenters note how strange and dangerous these products are. Those critics, however, are then banished from the bubble, leaving behind an evermore concentrated consensus.

This process could be almost comical – as the many armchair warriors repeat What Everyone Knows to Be True as self-justifying proof that more and more wars and confrontations are needed – but the United States is the most powerful nation on earth and its fallacious “group thinks” are spreading a widening arc of chaos and death around the globe.

========

Tangled Threads

========

In a less than joyful vein, I am sorry to announce that the good old Australian Broadcasting Commission (Public Radio) has also "drunk the Kool Aid". My morning coffee was soured by reading  this think piece  by a purported ABC Middle East correspondent blaming President Assad for the rise of IS - a classic R2P harpy if ver there was one.

 

"The Syrian conflict continues with no end in sight and as long as the West fails to act against the Assad government, Islamic State will continue to flourish, writes Middle East correspondent Sophie McNeill.

It is a war that has now lasted five years and killed a quarter of a million people, while 10 million have fled their homes.

This week, Syrian government warplanes dropped four rockets on a crowded marketplace in Douma, just outside the capital Damascus. killing over 100 people.

Just a few hours after the attack, I sat in the ABC Middle East bureau and watched camera phone footage of its immediate aftermath.

 

It was horrific. A desperate man rushed through the dust, carrying a bloodied child over his shoulder.

Dozens of dead bodies lay on the ground amongst blown out buildings and destroyed market stalls.

The children are the worst part. Their tiny bodies caught up in a horrific game the adults have been playing.

The United Nations said 111 civilians were killed in the airstrikes and at least 200 injured.

For its part, the Syrian military did not deny it had launched airstrikes on the town that day — it told news agencies they were targeting a rebel group called Islam army that has been staging rocket attacks on Damascus.

But there was no doubt this was a civilian target — a market. There was a surreal number of tomatoes strewn amongst the dead…….

……..Mr Assad's unpunished crimes in Syria have been, and continue to be, a huge recruitment tool for the terrorists.

They are fighting to overthrow Mr Assad's regime and every time he commits another massacre it is a PR win for them.

The video I watched, of the children killed in the market, was the same kind of video that has inspired many young foreign fighters to go and join IS…….".

Sophie has a conveniently short and highly selective memory.

These are the morons we are up against. Read it provided you can avoid vomiting.

Assad To Blame

 

 

"Pollard Released on Parole" - by Walrus.

The Associated Press is reporting the release on parole of Jonathan Pollard, Thirty years to the day after his conviction.

A few questions: Why was "parole" even available, given the severity of the offences?

Exactly which "New York investment firm" has given him a job in its finance department? Surely such an action signals to the country that every employee of the firm has unquestionable allegiance to Israel? There are prudential controls in most countries that prevent a convicted felon like Pollard from having anything to do with the management of other peoples money.

Does this event imply that on the basis of equity, other convicted spies should expect release after Thirty years?

How long before Pollard breaks his parole and is spirited to Israel?

What did we get in return, Mordechai Vanunu?

Pollard Released. 

Vanunu

 

Dabiq, the end of days (notional), and jihadi goals

"Now that it has taken Dabiq, the Islamic State awaits the arrival of an enemy army there, whose defeat will initiate the countdown to the apocalypse. Western media frequently miss references to Dabiq in the Islamic State’s videos, and focus instead on lurid scenes of beheading. “Here we are, burying the first American crusader in Dabiq, eagerly waiting for the remainder of your armies to arrive,” said a masked executioner in a November video, showing the severed head of Peter (Abdul Rahman) Kassig, the aid worker who’d been held captive for more than a year. During fighting in Iraq in December, after mujahideen (perhaps inaccurately) reported having seen American soldiers in battle, Islamic State Twitter accounts erupted in spasms of pleasure, like overenthusiastic hosts or hostesses upon the arrival of the first guests at a party.

The Prophetic narration that foretells the Dabiq battle refers to the enemy as Rome. Who “Rome” is, now that the pope has no army, remains a matter of debate. But Cerantonio makes a case that Rome meant the Eastern Roman empire, which had its capital in what is now Istanbul. We should think of Rome as the Republic of Turkey—the same republic that ended the last self-identified caliphate, 90 years ago. Other Islamic State sources suggest that Rome might mean any infidel army, and the Americans will do nicely."  Atlantic Magazine

---------------

"Islam is a religion of peace and love..."  Yes, that is so for most or at least many Muslims, but for many others the "peace" is for other Muslims, and most especially for those who agree with one's own interpretation of scripture and law.  It is easy for apologists for Islam to ignore basic truths and for gullible, shallow politicians like Bush 43 and Kasich to accept a conveniently benign view of  islamicate civilization but their gullibility is always based on ignorance and the favorable impression made on them by Muslim apologists.

 There is currently a vast quantity of drivel abroad in the land concerning Islam, Salafism, jihadism, etc.  At the meeting I recently attended, a poly sci professor who occupies an endowed chair at a major university opined that what the Islamists want is to recover all the lands once held by the 'ummah.  That would include; Greece, the Balkans, Sicily, southern mainland Italy, Iberia, southern France, etc.  Another professor in the room laughed.  This one actually knew a lot about Islam and told the first,  "ah, you don't understand,  The ones who only want that are the moderates among them."  She was correct.

IS is often referred to by the Arabic acronym da'ish  (dawlat islamiyah f'il 'iraq wa ash-sham).  "Islamic State in Iraq and Syria"  For some reason it is said by Westerners that this is disparaging because it denies them statehood.  The first word "dawlat" means "state" so I don't get that.

Perhaps it is thought disparaging because it confines their statehood to Iraq and Syria.  Now, that might be since their goal as described (correctly in my view) by Wood is a fulfillment of the apocalyptic prophecy of a final cataclysmic battle on the  Plain of Dabiq north of Aleppo, a battle in which Jesus (a nice touch) will return to lead the army of the Muslims (IS) against the army of "Rome" probably us kuffar (infidels) generally but with Americans as a central feature.  According to their expectations, victory at Dabiq will lead to a general unraveling of things and the Day of Judgment.

Now, pilgrims, I understand that many of you whether kuffar or mu'mineen will insist that this is all BS and only oil is real, but Wood and I think you are wrong.

If my new best friend Wood and I are right then the ongoing wave of terror attacks are really intended to provoke us saliibiyeen (crusaders) into coming to Dabiq where they want to dance.  Save me a dance, children.  Save me a dance.  pl  

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

GOP candidates vs. the Syrian refugee threat (by CP)

There is a Republican tradition established for several election cycles.

The 2008 elections put on the road the hilariously disturbing McCain and Sarah Palin show and had Republican contenders out-enthusing each other on the practically irrelevant matter of torture, turning the question into a wedge issue (lest Bush era officials be prosecuted). In the 2012 campaign there was Romney vowing to double Guantanamo, just to underline that having set up this institutionalised legal limbo was a splendid idea (lest Bush era officials still be prosecuted). Republicans then went to great length suggesting that having these prisoners in a prison on US soil would spell the end of the world as we know it.

Today we have Republican aspirants express their utter horror at yet another non-issue: America being overrun by the Syrian Muslim hordes. Ben Carson demanded the US screen, thoroughly, for ‚mad dogs‘ amongst the Syrian refugees - as if DHS wasn't already. Ted Cruz, not to be outdumbed by anyone, wants to make a religious test at the border and sort out all Muslims.

It is said that further proposals – throwing the witch in the river to see if she swims, having Muslims wear green pointy hats or armbands – were met with general approval by the Republican conclave but were found to be too difficult to spell.

One could perhaps see a point to all this if there was an actual problem with Syrians in the US.

Well, there isn’t. While the US has, with Saudi-Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, done more than any other nation to destabilise Syria, the US have so far taken the not-so staggering number of 1,854 (give and take) Syrian refugees.

That is still 1,854 times as much as as Saudi Arabia has accepted, but not much more than the average German Kreis (~County) is taking. Even if the US took, as Obama has boldly suggested, 10.000 next year, they are light years away from what Europe is experiencing. Distributed over a 317 million nation, it is probably something that the US could handle easily.

The US can freely choose to take or not take these refugees because the refugees can’t just walk up to the US, as they can in Europe. That is the result of the simple fact that the US is blessed by geography and insulated from the Syrian shitstorm they very actively helped unleash by the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Syria is some 9000km away.

Some Republican candidates apparently didn’t notice yet. To the extent the others did, they wouldn’t let that get in the way of a focus-group approved talking point. So, be afraid, very afraid!

by confusedponderer

Hillary is still triangulating

She still wants a "no-fly zone" along the Turkish border in Syria.  As I have said before, only the Russian and Syrian governments have airplanes.  The jihadis do not have airplanes unless you want to count Turkey as among the supporters of jihadism.

Therefore, the "no fly zone" would be directed at Syria and Russia.

She and her "friends" want Syria and Russia to agree to creation of a rebel/jihadi sanctuary?

Excuse me? pl

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/19/politics/hillary-clinton-isis-speech/

Lights in the Darkness - TTG

Target the Terrorists, Worry About Assad Later

It’s disturbing that for some of my congressional colleagues and other government officials, even as ISIS makes known its imminent plan to attack the American homeland, we must relegate these terrorists to secondary status. First, they say, we must rid Syria of the odious dictator Assad. With that mass murderer out of the way, then we may turn to checking ISIS off the list. This fails to grasp the emergency at hand. It betrays a failure of strategic thinking.

No, I’m sorry, but our number one enemy is not Assad. It is ISIS – better known in the Middle East as Daesh – and we must immediately focus on these enemies of our civilization, partnering with whoever shares an interest in extinguishing these marauders. French President Francois Hollande understands the urgency if many of Washington’s talking heads do not.

Forget Assad for now. Target the terrorists who are training their killing machine on us.

Yes, that means not just forgetting Assad, but laying aside worries about Putin. Russia’s jets have been pounding ISIS strongholds for days. That’s a good thing. Why do American decision-makers nitpick the less-than-perfect Russians while Russians kill those who would kill us?  (Dana Rohrabacher)

***************************************

First Tulsi Gabbard and now Dana Rohrabacher. Perhaps everyone on Capital Hill should take up surfing. These two surfers are making more sense lately than anyone else inhabiting the D.C. swampland.

Dana is the only Congressman I’ve met since I was a kid. Even though I only talked with him a few times, I could see he is an honorable, stand up guy. Among the many momentos he has on display in his office, hang the surfboards used by Dana and his bride on their honeymoon. Yes, he has the soul of a surfer. Some describe him as bat shit crazy. So what. I’ve been accused of the same. I’m firmly convinced a little bat shit crazy is good for the soul. I don’t agree with all his stances, but again, so what. Those differences only make conversation while quaffing ales in a pub lively and stimulating. 

Dana demonstrated an active interest in Afghanistan since the late eighties. He made many trips over there meeting with the northern warlords like Massoud and Dostan. He championed the policy of supporting the mujahideen against the Soviets. After 9/11 he advised the White House to send a small group of men to work with the Northern Alliance warlords to overthrow the Taliban and take on Al Qaeda. Late he distributed Major Gant’s “One Tribe at a Time” and championed his approach rather than the Administration’s half assed surge.

Both Dana and Tulsi need to take on their largely clueless congressional colleagues  and slap some sense into them. We should help them any way we can. That would be knarly, dude.

TTG

Experiencing the Nemesis of hubric exceptionalism‑Who are we now? ORIGIN

 

The [George W. Bush] aide, [Narcissus],  … said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/faith-certainty-and-the-presidency-of-george-w-bush.html

           For the last few years I have been trying unsuccessfully to discern some consistent, organizing theme to American foreign policy in the supposedly post Cold War Era.  A few facts that appear to be true relating to the MENA have really bothered me because of their contradictory nature.  Recently, one of the members of this Committee posted a serious question for the Committee he had picked up somewhere else on the Internet. 

           The question is as follows:

Just trying to keep my scorecard straight. Let’s see. The Americans are using a Turkish airbase to bomb ISIS and protect our allies the Kurds.

 The Turks are bombing our allies the Kurds while we are using their airbase.  The Americans are supplying human shields for terrorist in Syria who are being bombed by the Russians.

On the Iraqi side, American air power is being used to protect and support the new Iranian puppet regime in Iraq installed by the Americans after the gulf war.  The Mahdi army that we fought in Sadr City are now advanced element of the Iraqi army we are protecting.

Officers of “the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism” the Iranians are standing next to Iraqi officers who are standing next to American officers all cooperating to kill ISIS soldiers who have been receiving weapons from Americans through American proxies we consider”moderate rebels”.

Meanwhile, our “enemies” the Iranians are supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen while our “allies” the people who destroyed the trade centers have involved the U.S. in yet another unauthorized war by aggressively attacking the houthis who were helping the U. S. fight Al Queda in Yemen before .

In the meanwhile “moderate rebels” are undoubtedly being furnished weapons capable of bringing down Russian war planes. So while Russia is bombing ISIS, we are encouraging our proxies to shoot down their planes.

Will someone tell me whose side we are on today?

The Pursuit of Happiness by Richard Sale

 

     Man is a vile animal.

     “The Seven Years war exceeded in atrocity all the previous wars," said French master historian Albert sorrel.  “We are surrounded by hanged corpses,” reported a witness, “and women and children are still being massacred when they oppose the pillage of their own homes.”  Other witness said that, “Nothing like it had been seen since the invasion of the Huns. Inhabitants were hanged after their noses and ears were cut off, their limps torn away, their entrails and their hearts open.” But even these savage conflicts had limited objectives.

     In his Ethics, Schopenhauer said, “Man is, at bottom, a dreadful wild animal. We know this wild animal in a tamed state called civilization and therefore are shocked by the occasional outbreaks of his true nature; but if and when the bolts and bars of the legal order fall apart and anarchy intervenes, it reveals itself for what it is.”

     Does any group of rational human beings live only in order to die?  The goal of life is development and fulfillment, not destruction or mass suicide.  To die was a natural as being born, but you do not court death; you don’t worship death.  You face death with courage and gratitude after having led a worthwhile life embued with moral purpose.

     But with the coming of al-Qaeda death became “glorious,” and IS has quickly embraced that view. IS views the deaths produced by terror is the ultimate fulfillment of the human destiny. Martyrdom was assigned the highest priority by al Qaeda’s volunteers and the same can be said of the followers of IS.  Killing and dying for Allah are viewed as the highest form of sacrifice.  Much time is spent by IS and AQ training their followers to die.         This is homocial and suicidal lunacy, People who glorify death don’t deserve to live. Above all things,  life must be respected and revered, developed and refined. The goal of pursuing happiness is a sound one.  It rejects death and seeks to prevail over evil. IS is destined to perish.

Friends, non-friends and academics

My absence:

I spent the last two days at a meeting which was essentially a conclave of social scientists, (IR & Poly Sci people) huddled together with some fairly senior technocrats to ponder the world's ills.  More than that I cannot say about the proceedings.  But... One or two things I can say, I think... 

The academics were not very creative in their thinking.  The "thinking" consisted mainly of projecting current situations straight forward into the future in a rather pathetic belief that what is will continue to be.  This "wisdom" was delivered with the pomposity and haughtiness so typical of senior academics.

1-  There were very few of those deep academic thinkers who had any military knowledge at all but they felt free to prognosticate about the relative capabilities of the worlds armed forces.

2 - They were pretty much all wedded to the idea that if the US government through its media co-optees says that country X is a friend and ally of the US or if the US government and its media flunkies say that country Y is an enemy, then it must be so and those "truthy" notions must be clung to.  Therefore, it was believed and said constantly that Saudi Arabia is a great and powerful country and a faithful friend of the US.  Haarumph!  Much the same thing was said of Turkey! Haarumph!

------------------

Actual news:

- Russia has decided that IS should be made an organization of former jihadis (dead jihadis)  This final decision seems to have been made in the aftermath of the conclusion by the Russians that, yes, it was a bomb on the Metrojet and, yes, it was an IS bomb.

 - That being the case the Russians have stepped up their air sortie rate to over 200/day and are using strategic long range heavy bombers flying from Russian air fields as part of the mix.  Prominent among the targets are places in and around Raqqa, Syria.  The US sortie rate is now typically less than 20/day as compared to 1100/day during Desert Storm.

- The French are seeking an effective cooperation against IS between them, Russia and the US.  The "long pole in the tent" blocking such an arrangement is the continuing insistence of Obama and the Harpies that the Russians must agree to Assad's departure as a pre-condition for cooperation.  At Antalya and Vienna (?) both Putin and Lavrov have told Obama that he and the girls are not going to get that.

- Given the level of Obama's pathological narcissism this denial of his godhood is probably responsible for his recent public peevishness.  pl

"WRITING ON THE WALL" - THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RECENT TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN JIHADI TERRORISM

By Patrick Bahzad - repost from August 26th 2015

 

IRA graffiti in Northern Ireland

With the frequency in terrorist attacks – or attempted and foiled attacks – increasing ever more since the start of this year, it may be time to reflect on certain patterns that have become apparent and represent potentially crucial challenges for societies in Western Europe. The paradigm shift regarding both qualitative and quantitative aspects of Islamic terrorism is now clearer than ever before to law enforcement, but the implications of this shift still needs to be emphasized, as there are possibly tough choices ahead of us.

Back in the 1990s, when Western Europe and France in particular were first targeted by groups whose members would later be sucked into the maelstrom of global Jihad, it was fairly easier for law enforcement to identify potential threats. Admittedly, the number of individuals on watch lists was much smaller, leaving counter-terrorism with more resources to monitor activities. But Islamic radicals were still operating genuine cells, and their leaders or logistics experts were often foreigners having been allowed into the country as political refugees. They did not blend into civil society and stuck to their own. Once infiltrated, which happened usually quite quickly, it was only a matter of time before these groups were taken apart by law enforcement, generally before even staging an attack.

Changing patterns and profiles

Those days are gone. Jihad and Islamic terrorism in the West has become an entrepreneurial activity for a underclass holding a grudge. Basically, people are now being groomed or grooming themselves into ticking time-bombs, waiting for a reason to go into self-destruct mode. The crux is, there is no single pattern that fits this new type of terrorism. Too many variables have blurred the line for a simple grid to allow us singling out dangerous individuals from the general population.

Some people cry "racial discrimination" and "ethnic profiling" when they hear targeted surveillance and increased monitoring of certain groups, facilities or web sites. The truth though is that about 30 % of the individuals on the continent's terror watch lists have a fully European (Caucasian) and often domestic background. Another 30 % is made up of European nationals having an immigration background that has nothing to do with the Middle-East or North-Africa. These are mostly second generation immigrants from Sub-Saharan Africa, but also from the Caribbean or South America, who have been won over by radical Islam through years of indoctrination in desolate suburbs that are now strongholds of Salafi beliefs, or during a prison stay in which they chose to join the most powerful "brotherhood" in European jails, the Islamic radicals. Only 40 % approximately of security risks – depending on the country – have a Middle-Eastern, North African or Asian background.

ISIS – A Black Hole in the Heart of the Middle-East: The Armies of the Caliphate

Someone said to me that we here on SST have not written much on IS.  This is re-posted to answer that.  pl

 

By Patrick Bahzad

After the Islamic State’s recent and overwhelming victory in Ramadi, the Iraqi government as well as analysts in D.C. seemed to be in a state of shock and disarray. ISIS is officially losing ground since the start of the US led airstrikes in September 2014. With the rout of the Iraqi army in Ramadi however, this narrative becomes harder and harder to sell. Earlier this year, victory of Shia militias in Tikrit had been seen as the beginning of the end for Abubakr al-Baghdadi’s organization. That assessment has now been called seriously into doubt, as the armies of the Caliphate seem to march on. Even though it is difficult to give an accurate estimate of ISIS’ military capabilities, they’re a force to be reckoned with, and they can challenge anything the current Iraqi government can muster against them.

Why months of airstrikes and hundreds of “sorties” haven’t stopped the Jihadis has several reasons. On the one hand, there are undoubtedly unresolved issues between Washington and Baghdad that have a bearing on the proficiency of the counter-IS campaign. Recent reports by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), stating that “coalition” airstrikes killed 170 ISIS members in the past months in Syria, should be taken with utmost caution. An allegedly independent opposition NGO, the SOHR is run out of London by a few individuals with a dubious track-record. According to – hopefully – more reliable accounts, i.e. the daily briefings of US Central Command, the first three months of consistent airstrikes managed to hit about 300 vehicles, but only 25 ISIS fighters …

This sobering result is more in line with developments we're seeing on the ground, as the death of several mid- to high-ranking ISIS leaders has not been enough to halt the overall momentum of the Caliphate’s troops, at least for now. The fact of the matter is, the Islamic State is an organization that has survived years of attempts by the Americans to destroy it. They know how to survive against an enemy that rules the skies and can see about everything that moves on the ground. They’re also hard to penetrate or read, which is very much related to the experience brought forward by former Baathist army and intelligence officers who joined the organization. What recent events in Ramadi have shown to those who might have forgotten about it, is that the Caliphate actually has an army. It is not exactly built along the same rationale as Western armed forces, but it has structure, “command and control” and a genuine ability to maneuver and fight, unlike some of the Iraqi government troops.

Absence and a reminder

I will be out of the house Monday and Tuesday and may or may not post or moderate comments, so play among yourselves.

I have rules here;  no pointless bad language, no ad hominem attacks and no argument for its own sake.  pl

Joshua Landis on Syria "The price of regime-change is chaos ... ISIS spreads where states fail" (by CP)

Joshua Landis has been interviewed by RT's Sophie Shevardnadze (granddaughter of former foreign minister of the USSR, Eduard Shevardnadze (of ending- (or, if your a neocon, losing) the-cold-war fame) and made some very clear sighted and candid remarks. The whole thing is there on Landis' Syria Comment (also, at the bottom of the page, on video). Some excerpts, topically rearranged:

* On the effects of regime change

SS: Does that mean that if Assad is gone, the power struggle between these factions will continue and there will be no unity – so we’re going to get another Libya on our hands?

JL: I believe so, yes. The West falsely believes that it can separate the regime from the state. It argues that it can pursue regime-change while simultaneously preserving the state and its institutions. Washington believes it can avoid the chaos it sewed in Iraq. I don’t believe it can. It wasn’t only Bremer that criminalized the Baath Party and disbanded the army. The Shiite politicians he empowered insisted on it. In most Middle Eastern countries, the regimes, for better or worse, have transformed the states into reflections of themselves. They have cannibalized the state. They have crammed their loyalists into every nook and cranny of the national institutions. They had to in order to coup-proof their regimes. They justified it in the name of bringing stability. State institutions are not autonomous.  Westerners believe that because their own state institutions are run by professional civil servants, Middle Eastern states are too. But they aren’t. Political appointees make up the entire edifice. They cannot simply be swapped out. Regime-change for an Arab country is not like administration change in a Western country. Destroying the regime means destroying the state. The price of regime-change is chaos. That is the situation in Syria today. It is the situation almost everywhere in the Middle East. Think of Saudi Arabia without the Saudi family. What would be left of the state?

* on Assad the ISIS magnet:

SS: So, why does the West keep supporting those rebels? For the West it’s not a fight about removing Assad rather than fighting Islamic State.

JL: This is true, but many top US generals, like the Syrian opposition, continue to insist that Assad is the magnet drawing ISIS into Syria and thus must be destroyed first. This argument makes little sense. After all, when did Al-Qaeda pour into Iraq? Only after Saddam was deposed and the Americans ruled the country. I don’t think any of the US generals who now claim that Assad must be destroyed in order to defeat ISIS would also argue that America had to be destroyed in Iraq in order to rid it of al-Qaida. ...

I think everyone can agree that Al-Qaeda spread in Iraq because the state was destroyed and insecurity prevailed. The same is true in Syria. When Assad pulled his army out of the East, al-Qaida and other forms of Islamic extremism spread. ISIS spreads where states fail. ...

 

PARIS ATTACKS : The Belgian Syndrome Sets In Again

By Patrick BAHZAD - updated on November 17th 2015, 10.30 EST

As the investigation into Friday’s attacks now focuses firmly on Belgium, one cannot but notice that there is an eerie sense of déjà vu about this whole thing. Already after the “Charlie Hebdo” attacks, in January, police uncovered strong links, both operational and logistical, with Belgium.

 

This is almost like same things all over again. And I’m not just talking about the previous Paris attacks. Back in 1995, when France was rocked by an Islamic bombing campaign, investigators managed to gather enough evidence to show that the logistics and the planners were located in Brusssels. In 1998, to give just one more example, another bombing plot was uncovered, aimed at targeting the Soccer world cup which took place in France that year. Again, Belgium and Brussels turned out to be the rearbase of the terrorists.

For those interested, there is a piece I wrote about this Belgian syndrome , as I like to call it: "Belgium: from rear base to frontline state of European Jihadis". Change a couple of names and dates, and you will still get a pretty accurate picture of the importance of this “chocolate making country” for Jihadis in Europe. One area of Brussels in particular rose to questionable fame in that regard: Molenbeek-Saint-Jean.

The wannabe terrorist of the Thalys train –  who was disarmed by two US servicemen back in August – lived in Molenbeek. So did the man who shot and killed 4 people at Brussels Jewish Museum in 2014. The terrorist cell that was taken out by Belgian police in January 2015, as a follow up to the “Charlie Hebdo” attacks, had two members who were actually from the same neighbourhood. And now, we got Molenbeek again at the centre of a major terrorist investigation. In this current case, two reasons point to this area.

Some thoughts on Paris, Article 5 and jihadism

I offer some thoughts on the situation:

- The NATO Treaty is US law.  If the French invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty we must accept that appeal and go to war alongside them.  If we do not, then NATO is finished.  If our response to the Article 5 request requires American ground troops, so be it.  Fish or cut bait.

- The politics of 2016 has reduced the statements of the various candidates to gibberish in which they spout slogans at each other seeking the attention of the Borg and the ignorant.  An example would be the statement just now made to Jake Tapper by Jeb Bush that the Syrian government is as much a threat to Syrian Christians as is the Islamic state and the other Sunni jihadis.  Of course, anyone who knows anything about Syria knows that the large Christian population views the Syrian government as their sole protectors from the jihadis.  Jeb or el-jebe as he is sometimes known in the Latino world also "thinks"  that a US no-fly zone in Syria as a grand idea.  IS does not have an air force so such a no-fly zone would be intended to prevent Syria air force and  Russian air force intrusion.  This would mean war with Russia.  Where does he get such "thoughts?"  He gets them from the same neocons who were his dumb-dumb brother's advisers and who seduced and lied us all into invading Iraq as part of their grand scheme to reduce the countries of the ME to chaos. 

- Obama is in Turkey conferring with Erdogan, the Saudi king and the emir of Qatar. as to how to combat IS.  This is a joke!  All of these are sponsors of IS and the other Sunni jihadi movements.  Senator Lindsey Graham just told Tapper that we (the US) should lead an army of Arabs and THE TURKS into the fight.  Of course, Graham is a wholly owned property of Izrul.  Whatever mind "he" has in regard to the ME was carefully sculpted by them while writing upon the tabula rasa that was his brain before they began their work.   But even "he" should know that Erdogan's Turkey is an ally of IS and will never, never participate in a serious move against IS.  Actually, Kemalist Turkey is dead and will probably not be seen again. 

- At least one (probably three) of the Paris attackers probably entered Europe as part of the migrant flow that passed  through Erdogan's Turkey.  One man was registered by the Greeks government on Leros and then was again registered in a Croatian refugee shelter.  The really operative part of this tale is that this or these people traveled through Turkey unmolested by the Turkish police and security services.  I once lived in Turkey and even then these services were ubiquitous and aggressive.  So, IMO Erdogan has passed these people through and sent them on their mission.  Just look at his face as he walks around at Antalya.  That is the cat who has eaten the canary.

- People who think that the US homeland is not threatened by a Paris type event are wrong.  We have large resident populations who are disaffected and subject to jihadi recruitment.  Such an attack does not require many strikers.  We have tough police but the possibility of jihadi success is always there.  Our borders are long and not really secure.  IMO the Canadian border is even more insecure than that with Mexico.  There are a lot of places in northern New England and New York state where you can easily walk across the border between border entry points and then be picked up by someone waiting for you.  The US is saturated with firearms and the materials with which to make explosives.   The pattern in Paris was evidently local French and Belgian national jihadis born of Muslim immigrants combined with reinforcements sent in as stiffening for the home team.   This is a viable model for attacks in the US.  A question for me is why the attackers carried their travel documents into the attacks.  Was this a search for recognition? That could be.

- What would my strategy be if I were emperor of the world?

    * Europe must put back up its border controls.

    * Erdogan's program for a Muslim invasion by inundation of Europe must be ended.  Send them back to their home countries. 

    * Accept the idea that in a UN supervised election Assad may win.  Hilary Mann Leveritt pointed out yesterday that in an election a couple of years ago that included the Syrian refugee diaspora, Assad won.  The Borgist TV anchor nearly had apoplexy.

    * Defeat and destroy IS in Syria and Iraq.  To do this we must accept the cooperation of all who wish fight IS and any other jihadis.  That would include Russia, Hizbullah and Iran.

    pl

Declare War… For Real This Time - TTG

 

Earlier today, our own bth made a worthwhile request. “What I want is a discussion on this forum of what an actual punitive attack on IS would be composed of and how it would be accomplished.” Yesterday, Babak Makkinejad asked, “And who is the enemy this time? Another noun? Or would it be an adjective this time? Damned good questions from both our committee members, in my opinion. I'll start.

At this moment, only Egypt has formally declared war on the Islamic State. I won’t be so bold as to tell France what she should do in the coming days, but I’m pretty sure she will do what’s right.  

I am comfortable in declaring what I think the US should do immediately. I want to see the US Congress unequivocally and formally declare war on the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. At the same time our Congress should stop shilly-shallying around any and all AUMF declarations. End that crap and the amorphous GWOT (global war on terror). All that does is give every parochial interest group cover for increasing Executive and Judicial overreach and other pet programs. 

This declaration of war should specifically state that all means available may be used to defeat our enemies including criminal law. Our enemies are murders, not soldiers. We will adhere to international law and our own codes of conduct out of a concern for our character, not out of a concern for our enemies’ rights and privileges.  

We should formally inform all neutral parties that we will deal with any efforts to provide aid and comfort to our enemies quickly and harshly. This will serve as the final warning. Any US citizen or corporation providing aid and comfort to our enemies will be treated as a traitor in time of war. No exceptions.

All those who join us in this war will be considered allies and will be treated with respect and cooperation. If that means issuing letters of marque, so be it. Again, no exceptions.

Then we get down to business and openly accept the costs and consequences of this war.

TTG

PARIS ATTACKS: Time for a reality check

By Patrick BAHZAD

We are at war now, says the French press ! No, we are not at war now ... We have been at war for some time already, not a conventional war, but a war nonetheless.

The trouble is, lots of people in the West in general, and in France in particular, didn't know or didn't want to know this uncomfortable truth, and a number of so called "analysts" and "experts" refused to acknowledge it, even after the January attacks on "Charlie Hebdo". 

Earlier this year, I wrote a piece on SST "WRITING ON THE WALL: The significance of recent trends and patterns in Jihadi terrorism". Now, I realize I may sound like those "told you so" armchair strategists, but I want to warn again - like others - about the dangers our societies are exposed to. These threats are complex and just going after potential accomplices, or their backers, won't cut it. 

Allons enfants de la patrie!

 

Our French friends tell me that the hunt proceeds!  pl

Operation Free Sinjar - TTG

Early today, Kurdish forces began their long anticipated offensive to take Sinjar and cut Highway 47, the IS main supply route between Raqqa and Mosul. By this evening, most, if not all, of Sinjar and several stretches of Highway 47 east and west of the city are in Kurdish hands. A Peshmerga commander claims that ninety percent of the military plans for Sinjar have been successfully implemented. Peshmerga engineers have been busy dealing with the many mines, roadside bombs and IEDs left behind by the retreating IS forces. US air support was key to the success of the operation. Luis Martinez from ABC News stated that “To support the ground offensive, coalition aircraft conducted 24 airstrikes that a coalition statement said struck nine ISIS tactical units, staging areas, and destroyed 27 fighting positions, and an assortment of weapons and bunker areas.” Now that’s an effort on par with the Russians.

 This offensive effort is not the result of a well oiled, consolidated Kurdish military force. The beginning of the offensive was delayed by competition and distrust among the different Kurdish forces. The Peshmerga of the KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) attacked Sinjar and the highway east of the city. To the west, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and YPG (People’s Protection Units) accompanied by two Yazidi militias (HPS and YBS), attacked the highway and Sinjar itself. The Green Beret advisors on Mount Sinjar had their hands full keeping everyone pointed in the right direction.

Cutting Highway 47 will not automatically doom IS control in northern Iraq. There are a series of smaller roads south of Sinjar which will allow IS to move their smaller and lighter forces across the border, as well as supplies. It will be more difficult especially with Winter flooding, but far from impossible.     

There’s a lot of history among the various groups of the Kurdish coalition. Barzani’s KDP Peshmerga and the PKK have fought against each other. The PKK sided with Talibani’s PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) and ended up fighting the KDP during Iraqi Kurdish Civil War in the mid-1990s. However, this fighting left more feelings of distrust than hatred. 

The first trip out of country by the Turkish Foreign Minister after the AKP victory was to visit Barzani to secure KDP support in fighting the PKK. He must have hoped to capitalize on the PKK-KDP fighting of the mid-1990s. However, the Turkish Foreign Minister failed to extract any promises from Barzani. Semih Idiz, a political columnist for Turkey’s Cumhuriyet newspaper, said “There is a cultural stigma attached to Kurds who cooperate with Turkish security forces against other Kurds. Barzani may restrict PKK activities in the cities.”  

The Yezidis were aligned with, or under the protection of, the KDP until last year’s IS attack on Sinjar and the Yazidis. The Yazidis claim the KDP retreated and left them open to the predations of IS forces. They credit YDP and PKK forces with their rescue from annihilation. 

Although this history is real, the real question is who will control the Sinjar region once IS is expelled from the area. That's what the competition is all about. The Green Berets working with these forces have their hands full with trying to keep this coalition working effectively in the fight against IS. It is a mission fully within their capability. I envy them. Makes me want to pull on a set of ballroom pants and join the party. Ah, to be a young man again.

TTG

The End of History and the American Mind

,
 

At the present moment we have a memorable occasion in which the US refuses to afford Russia the courtesy of considering the merits of its intervention in Syria.  In fact, there are unending statements that deny the legitimacy of Russian action in spite of the invitation they were given by the UN recognized government of Syria.

What is the root of this problem?

IMO it is the belief resident and widespread in the Borg that history ended a while back and that after the end of the Cold War with the USSR there could be no doubt that the "day ob jubilo" had arrived and the ages long struggle of human tribes, countries and empires was done.  What was expected in the Borg was that a New World Order would prevail in which mommy's rules for playground behavior would rule, somehow.   From this Borgian premise proceeds the R2P harpy notion (eagerly supported by the neocons) that the Russians, IS, the jihadis, their Gulfie friends and the Zionists are all just errant children to be brought into line by scolding, small punishments and minimal efforts because, surely, they will understand that the old world has passed away and that this is the first century of the New Age of Man.

But, the Russians do not understand that and for good reason.  They do not believe it because that is all horse shit.  This is a cavalry metaphor inherited from my father.  Humanity has changed not at all.  It is still a "fight for love and glory, a case of do or die" except for those of you who believe that Russia fights for oil under the Golan Heights.

In fact the Russians are quite sane.  It is we Western fools who are collectively mad.  pl

Open Thread - 12 November 2015

pl

Cross my palm - March 2015

 

(It appears to me that I have not made an appeal for money for some time.  Anyone want to buy SST?)

I think it is time for me to make another appeal for contributions from those of you who wish to see SST continue. This site takes up at least two hours a day of my time. I could quote my consulting rate to you but that would not be in the style of this blog. Think of this appeal as something like the appeals made by PBS for money. There is a button for contributions on SST. Thanks in advance. pl

France wants US guarantees on Iran sanctions (by CP)

The US has many problems at their hands right now. Some of these problems just happened, emerged over time while some of them are entirely self-inflicted. Amongst the self-inflicted wounds is the fact that the US is no longer a reliable or trustworthy party.

The US has made its deal with Iran. But will they stick to it?

Given the fulminations against Iran and the so-called 'bad deal' coming out of the mouths of congresscritters, US presidential aspirants and given their craven sucking up to Bibi Netanyahu, a declared enemy of the aforementioned agreement,  the French have reason to question US reliability.

"Western firms have sought to renew commercial ties with Tehran in light of the deal, but last month Washington cautioned against rushing to invest in Iran until it fully complies.

French firms, once very active in Iran, were among those to have faced heavy penalties for violating sanctions.

"The attitude of the Americans is cooperative, but now we want that to be turned into something concrete so that the same thing doesn't happen again," Fabius told lawmakers ahead of next week's visit by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to France.

BNP Paribas was fined almost $9 billion in 2014 for transactions violating U.S. embargoes. This week, Deutsche Bank paid a $258 million penalty to settle charges that it did business on behalf of entities in U.S.-sanctioned countries like Iran and Syria.
...
Immediately after the nuclear deal U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had pledged that the U.S. authorities would ensure European firms would not be subject to penalties once sanctions had lifted.

But diplomats and executives say firms also want guarantees from the United States that they would be safe if sanctions were re-imposed. Without such assurances, businesses would remain prudent before committing themselves, they said."

To wit: Paribas was fined in the US for transactions that neither violated French law, nor European law nor international law but unilateral US sanctions law. Every action took place outside the US, by outside actors. The US claimed jurisdiction pretty much because a digital dollar of the transaction touched a US computer for a virtual second. Such arbitrary imposition of fines is a risk that all multinationals doing business with Iran face.

Obama wants the agreement with Iran, but will he be able to have it move forward in light of the hostility in Congress and from the pro-Israel quarters? There isn't much cause to expect reason in that quarter. And what will happen after Obama?

In light of these imponderables the French prudently want US guarantees, in writing, that the US won't prey on go after French companies for violating re-imposed or new US sanctions, just because whoever may succeed Obama happened to change his mind and reset to the US default mode - regime change, or - an unlikelier case, but in fairness - should the Iranians renege on their part of the deal.

The US today find themselves in a situation where they have a record of arbitrariness, incoherence and of reneging on commitments they made. That is not a legitimate hegemonic entitlement but a liability, and should be understood as such.

by confusedponderer

"Jihadi Apocalypse" (a war game) Turn 4, suspended - for now

There will be a 4th turn.  It will be played out in the days following the conclusion of the nominating process by the two main American political parties.  This should be sometime in early September, 2016.  Game Time addressed in Turn 4 will be the six months following the 2 November election.

At that time there will be posted two scenarios (turns 4a and turn 4b)  These scenarios will address likely alternative futures in the context of the possible presidencies of the two candidates.

To summarize play at the end of Turn 3:

R+6 hold all of western Syria.  The Turkish border has been almost completely sealed by YPG Kurds, US air and R+6 forces west of the Euphrates.  there are pockets of SNC forces throughout the west.  These continue to be reduced through attrition.  Israel and Russia observe an uneasy avoidance of hostilities with each other.  Negotiations for a new Syrian constitution to be followed by a referendum continue.  Aleppo is entirely in government hands.  Reconstruction has begun with heavy Chinese participation.  Refugees are returning from Europe and ME countries to government held areas.  An EU air and sea lift is facilitating this from southern European ports.  Russia now has three ground division equivalents; an airborne division, two motorized rifle divisions and ancillary units in Syria.   There are three RuAF regiments spread across many bases.  China is heavily subsidizing this effort.  Russian 58th Army is the C2 element.  The SE suburbs of Damascus are once again in government hands.  Jordan has closed its borders to the Syrian opposition.  Turkey has not followed through on its threat to close Incirlik air base to the US.  Lebanon remains without effective government.  IS continues to hold eastern Syria and much of Iraq including Ramadi and Mosul.

The scenario for Turn 4 will resemble this summary.

SST thanks you all for your attention and help.  pl

Grahamismo and the Muslims

Senator Lindsey Graham is living proof that the citizens of South Carolina are a lot more tolerant than they are generally thought to be by folks from the Deep North.  More than that I will abstain from saying.

Lindsey Graham was on "Morning Joe" today.

It is true that Graham comes from humble circumstances.  He and Boehner share the distinction of having worked in their respective fathers' saloons.  More power to them!  It used to be a cultural trait in Euro-Americans that whatever your economic level of upbringing it was thought to be a good thing that you should learn to do hard manual labor as a youth and then you went to college, maybe.  I will not be self-referential but I fully understand the idea and approve of it.  Some Europeans have explained to me their revulsion at the thought of that experience.  Ah, well...

Graham is often described as the only presidential campaign candidate for 2016 who has any military service experience.  Well, yes, Trump was at NY Military Academy, a private prep school at Yonkers, and he, Trump, says he is the most "militaristic" of all the candidates.  One wonders if he understands the word.   Tojo was  a militarist.  Mussolini was a militarist.  Militarists are politicians with an inclination to rely on armed force to follow aggressive and usually nationalist objectives.

Graham served seven years as an air force lawyer, nearly all of it in Germany at the former Rhein-Main air base at Frankfurt where he tried cases involving misbehavior on the part of locally assigned USAF people.  He then returned to civilian life and was an Air National Guard and later USAF reserve lawyer for a long time while he pursued his civilian life as a lawyer and politician.  Well, pilgrims, the Grunts, Tankers, Combat Aviators and SF men here will have a hard time taking Graham seriously as a "military man."  Sorry, counselors. but that is how I see it.  Sooo, IMO Graham has no military knowledge or experience that should be taken seriously, but he has a lot to say, none of it based on much of anything but briefings received in his senate offices and in Israel.  He evidently knew nothing of the ME until Joe Lieberman arranged for him and McCain the Furious to be fully hasbarized in the Land God gave to the Chosen People  "How do we know? The Bible tells us so!"  IMO most of the Izrul devotees are merely cynical politicians courting moneyed Zionists, and Bible thumpers, but IMO Graham actually believes his own crap.

Some of his opinions:

- The US should generate however large a ground  force in Syria and Iraq that would prove necessary to "destroy" IS.  When asked how many Americans would be in that force he mumbles about 10,000 (if I heard him right).  Where would the others come from?  He says from the Turks and the Arabs.  Well, Turkey under Erdogan is an undeclared ally of IS.  Erdogan has just regained a parliamentary majority and has declared his intention to seek a new constitution for Turkey, presumably something grand will be in it for him.  The EU has stated that such a power grab will be a bar to Turkey entering Europe but I doubt if he cares.  The "Arabs?"  Saudi Arabia and Qatar are main supporters of jihadism.  Jordan has its hands full.  Lebanon has no military power worth talking about.  Iraq?  Well, we should know the answer to that by now.  So, what is he talking about?

- Islam.  Graham goes on about the need to fight IS because they want us to "bow down to Islam."  Half the time he does not differentiate between the takfiri wahhabi jihadis and all other Muslims. He clearly sees the Muslim menace in ways that his Israeli friends must relish. 

- Iran.  The Israelis always see their enemies.  They do not see them clearly but they do see them.  For a long time they saw Iraq as their greatest enemy.  We destroyed Iraq for them.  Now their bête noire is Iran, an enemy so fearful that nothing, nothing is to be shrunk from in destroying this enemy.  Their goal is to use "useful idiots" like Graham and his friend McCain "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!"  to lever the Americans into destroying Iran.  Unfortunately for the concept the American people want neither McCain nor Graham.

Russia - "a threat to American dominance"

Trump is starting to look good.  pl   

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article44231415.html

 

Israel's demands.

 "Hauser claims that Syria's collapse as a state should push Israel to devise a new strategy vis-à-vis the Golan Heights, and not make do with tactical military steps such as preventing arms transfers from Syria to Lebanon.                                                           
                             
      
Hauser wrote that Israel has the "first real opportunity in nearly 50 years to conduct a constructive dialogue with the international community over a change in Middle Eastern borders and recognition of Israeli rule on the Golan Heights, as part of the global interest in stabilizing the region."
                                                                    
  According to Hauser, in light of the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, Israel must act to receive a general "'American pledge,' including with regard to the Golan, with a presidential guarantee and Congressional legislation to ensure Israeli rule there." He added that Israel must work to "upgrade" the presidential promise given by U.S. President Gerald Ford to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1975, that included American recognition of Israel's need to remain on the Golan Heights even in peacetime.
                                                                    
  "Forty years on, in light of Syria’s collapse, the Islamic State’s takeover of huge areas in the Middle East and the 'rotten compromise' expected with the Islamic Republic of Iran, the achievement that Israel needs and can attain is to update the international stance, and ratify and upgrade the U.S. stance on the Golan," Hauser wrote."  Haaretz

-------------------

Bibi may be losing his mind, a terrible thing to waste.  He appears to have DEMANDED of Obama:

- That the US raise its annual gift of money to Israel from $2 billion US to $5 billion US.

- That the US support politically Israel's coming annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

-  That the US submit to Israel for approval any future deal  resolving the Syrian civil war which in my opinion Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US conspired to incite.

He seems to have lost track of the depth of Obama's loathing of him.  pl                                                            

 http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.685267

Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 3

Situation as of 2 June 2016 (Game Time)

- Combat Situation.  R+6 forces have largely defeated SNC (Unreconstructed FSA Unicorns + mostly non IS jihadi Sunnis who have not fled to Turkey and thence to Europe).

In northern Syria.  The main line of contact with SNC forces is north and east of Aleppo.

SNC held parts of Aleppo are besieged by R+6.  The Syrian government has called on FSA unicorns in Aleppo to surrender under an offer of amnesty and integration into R+6 forces in their own units under government supervision.  There have been a lot of defections from FSA in the context of an ever shrinking perimeter in Aleppo. Russian advisers have done an adequate job of teaching rattenkrieg combat in cities techniques to their allies.  There have been several building collapses along the line of contact within the city as R+6 "mouseholes" its way through walls connecting adjoining buildings to reach streets that can be covered by fire from within.  The Syrian government has called on the SNC to allow civilians to leave the city.  The government has also appealed to migrants now in Turkey and in Europe to return to pacified areas after screening for jihadi allegiance.

R+6 forces have moved to positions close to the Turkish border.  The border is not sealed everywhere but enough Russian and SAG air (both fixed wing and helicopter) as well as  artillery is positioned on re-captured airfields and other fire bases to make border crossings to and from Turkey extremely difficult.  Pockets of SNC forces remain throughout the north.  These are being attacked as forces are available.

In the Damascus/Homs/Hama/Idlib zone (Phase Line Blue) R+6 forces (including "rallied" FSA unicorns) have pushed to the east of the M-5 main north/south highway but have not gone more than 20 kilometers east of the road.  A Russian Motorized Rifle Regiment is still present with the R+6 forces east of Phase Line Blue.

RuAf strikes have continued south of Damascus without interference from Israel.  R+6 allies are slowly pushing SNC forces south and SW toward the Golan and Jordan.  A lack of Jordanian support for SNC forces is causing problems for the SNC in this sector.  Fighting in the SE Damascus suburbs and south of Damascus appears to be an economy of force play by R+6 so that greater force can be massed in the north and center of the country.

YPG forces and their US Green Beret advisers were driven back east across the Euphrates River by Turkish air strikes.  In response Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles were positioned in fire bases and on defended airfields north and NE of Aleppo where they cover the YPG Kurds.  As a result Turkish air attacks on the YPG Kurds have ended.

- Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base.

- The Russians have obtained contract charter sea lift from China and Cuba.  Ships hired have begun delivering tonnage to Latakia and Tartous from Black Sea ports as well as Chinese and Iranian manufactured materiel.  Many of the contracts for sea lift have been done on a credit basis in return for promises of development and business advantages in Syria and Iraq post war.  The Russian build-up in Syria appears to continue.

- Russia has begun delivering materiel to their Hizbullah allies at border crossing points on the Mediterranean border north of Tripoli, Lebanon.  RuAF air superiority fighters are patrolling the border area and S-400 missiles are at Tartous.  IAF fighters have attempted to intercept shipments south of the Lebanese border.

- Israeli/Palestinian violence in the West Bank continues to grow.

- In Riyadh a Saud family majlis ash-shura (consultative assembly) is in session to consider the adequacy of the country's present governance.  There  are many calls for King Salman's abdication.

- In Iraq IS still holds most of Anbar Province including Ramadi.

- Negotiations seeking an end to the war continue in Vienna.

Requirement:  Forecast developments in this scenario from 2 June, 2016 to 1 November, 2016 (Game Time).  Comments on Turn 3 will close Tuesday night, 10, November, 2015 (Real Time)  pl

 

Fire Baratz or don't come.

"In an email to The New York Times, Mr. Baratz said that “what I most regret is using the word anti-Semitism in relation to President Obama.”

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“Even in the context of a heated debate in which there were strong passions over the nuclear deal with Iran, such language should have never been used to describe President Obama,” he wrote. “It’s not true and I deeply regret having done so.”

The embarrassing episode unfolded at an inauspicious moment for Mr. Netanyahu, who is scheduled to meet with Mr. Obama on Monday for the first time in more than a year. The meeting is intended to reset their rocky relationship after it plunged to new depths.

Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, seemed to try to tamp down the Baratz tempest on Thursday, saying that it was “readily apparent that the apology was warranted,” but declining to comment further because, as he put it, Mr. Netanyahu’s staff appointments were “decisions that he will rightfully make on his own.”"  NY Times

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IMO any future visits by Israeli officials to the US should be postponed until the man is fired.  This disdain for the US cannot be tolerated.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/world/middleeast/ran-baratz-israel-netanyahu.html?_r=0

"Drinking the Koolaid." W. Patrick Lang

This was written in the autumn and winter 0f 2003/2004 and published in The summer number of "Middle East Policy" after "Harper's" who had commissioned me to write the piece refused to do so.  pl

(Now, in 2015 another band of manipulators is seeking to take  the US to war in Syria.  Americans - Beware!  pl)

In the context of the new biography of Bush 41 it is being said that the US had to invade Iraq because the "Iraqis would not comply with the UN inspection regime," but they did comply, and complied fully.  The "inevitability" argument is being advanced in an attempt to justify the actions of Bush 43 and his advisers.  This is a false narrative and that is recorded in my article..  pl

Download Drinking the Kool-Aid

Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 2

 

 Situation as of 1 February, 2016 (game time):

The R+6 coalition of forces has expanded its area of control and operations:

- The siege of Aleppo has been lifted by a successful advance of R+6 forces on the Axis of Advance - Jisr ash-Shugur/Idlib/Aleppo (Axis Green).  Priority of Russian fire support and CAS has been a mainstay of advance on this axis.  MRLS and tube artillery greatly facilitated the advance.  A Russian motorized rifle brigade is the backbone of advance on this axis. along with SAA, IRGC, Hizbullah and ethnic and sectarian militias  The advance was coordinated with an offensive of R+6 forces NE to SW from the Aleppo government perimeter on Axis Red.  The jaws of the encirclement met NE of Idlib in a classic kesselschlacht.   Unicorn/jihadi casualties were  heavy in the kessel battle.  There were defections among the jihadis and many fleeing toward the Turkish border.  A pursuit to the border closed the rebel held northern entrance to Aleppo.  The city is now besieged by R+6 forces.  The government of Syria has offered amnesty to FSA members in Aleppo and there have been many surrenders thus far.

- A large redoubt zone now exists from the Lebanese border on the south to the Turkish border north of Latakia and extending inland (east) to Homs/Hama.  (Phase Line Blue)  The north-south M5 highway is in government control as far the M4/M5 junction east of Idlib.   A Russian Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in this area east of the coastal mountains as reinforcement to SAA and militia forces present there.  There was heavy fighting around Homs and Hama.  R+6 casualties were numerous but acceptable with hospitals in Damascus providing second echelon medical care. 

- Russian personnel strength in Syria now is 20,000 organized in a provisional Motorized Rifle Division (-), a regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Division, artillery units, headquarters, base support troops and two RuAF Regiments.  The Russians have reached the limits of their available naval sea lift and air lift for reinforcement and supply.  They are now seeking to negotiate commercial sea and airlift on a charter basis from several maritime powers.  It is expected that if further lift can be arranged the Russians may further augment their forces in Syria and/or Iraq.

- In January a combined Russian/SAA airmobile operation reinforced Kuweires air base SE of Aleppo.  This was followed by link-up with R+6  troops from the forces that relieved Aleppo.   RuAF units have moved onto the base and are conducting operations from there as well as the coastal bases.

- YPG guerillas crossed the Euphrates in an attempt to move west to link-up with R+6 forces coming north from Kuweires AB.  This effort has been blocked by  repeated Turkish air strikes on the YPG Kurds.  Seven US Army Green Berets embedded with the Kurds have been killed by Turkish air thus far.

- Turkey is seeking to limit USAF use of Incirlik AB while at the same time themselves flying missions against the YPG Kurds and their American advisers from the same base.  The Obama Administration has been accused in European media of using American soldiers as human shields to limit Turkish action against the Kurds.  To this charge they have no answer.

- Iran has 2,000 troops in the fight and Lebanese Hizbullah maintains a similar number on the Lebanese/Syrian mountain border country as well as 500 men with the R+6 forces around Aleppo.

- The Gulf countries continue to support jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq.

- The Gulfie war against the Houthi/Zeidi people of Yemen continues to flounder.  Saudi air continues to kill large numbers of civilians in what amounts to a Douhet style application of terror bombing.   On the ground the Saudis and other Gulfie forces cannot "move" the tribal guerrillas and have suffered heavy losses in the Yemeni mountains east of Sanaa and in Najran Province, Saudi Arabia.  There is considerable unrest in Riyadh among member of the royal family.

- China ??????

- Israel ?????

Game time is now 1 February, 2016.  Instruction - Forecast events in this scenario worldwide through 1 June, 2016 (game time).  Comments will close for Turn 2 on Sunday, 8 November, 2016. (real time) pl

When will we see Hillary's Bat Mitzvah?

 

"I am deeply committed to Israel’s future as a secure and democratic Jewish state, and just as convinced that the only way to guarantee that outcome is through diplomacy. And while no solution can be imposed from outside, I believe the United States has a responsibility to help bring Israelis and Palestinians to the table and to encourage the difficult but necessary decisions that will lead to peace. As president I will never stop working to advance the goal of two states for two peoples living in peace, security and dignity.

I will do everything I can to enhance our strategic partnership and strengthen America’s security commitment to Israel, ensuring that it always has the qualitative military edge to defend itself. That includes immediately dispatching a delegation of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to meet with senior Israeli commanders. I would also invite the Israeli prime minister to the White House in my first month in office."  Hillary Clinton

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This supposedly impassioned cri de coeur would be funny if it were not so indicative of what this woman is really like.  The "sucking up" here is impressive.  HC is systematically "sucking up" to every group in the democrats' base.  Blacks (screw the police!), Latinos (halt deportations!), Gays (beat the Flyovers into submission!), Guns (Background checks on all transfers!), Jews (I loves Izrul! No, she only uses that voice in the South).  How about Canine Americans?  Well that might have to wait a bit...

It is not accidental that HC's poll ratings on honesty and truthfulness are in the toilet.  IMO, not even those who love her believe her.  She and Bill are arriviste opportunists who will say and do anything needed to achieve power and hold it.   Anyone who believes either of them is simply a fool.

When she is elected, and she probably will be, there will be a massive purge of every institution she and Bill can reach.  Holdovers from the Obama days of "Hope and Change" will run for the hills if they are smart.  The scythe will swing far and wide.  The only thing restraining her a little will be the prospect of 2020. 

Yes, she will send the JCS to Jerusalem to offer their swords to Bibi.  Yes, she will.  She has remarkably little regard for soldiers.  That line of chatter is yet another part of the joke.  pl

Read more: http://forward.com/opinion/national/324013/how-i-would-rebuild-ties-to-israel-and-benjamin-neta/#ixzz3qdrAJPIE

Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 1

At popular request we will have a war game on the subject of the downfall of the current weller of jihadists in the context of the seemingly never ending sine curves of Sunni revivalism over the centuries.

The game will be played in turns- probably three, but, who knows...  An initial scenario and crowdsourced comments will be followed after a bit by another scenario, one that has been affected by the crowdsourcing, etc. 

I will be the judge of the value of individual comments and of the extent to which any or all comments will affect the next game turn scenario.

Game time will begin 2 November, 2015 and the first move will extend in Game Time to 1 February, 2016.  Following moves will extend through periods of Game Time to be announced with the new turn.

Turn One Scenario:

Syria -The R+6 coalition of (Russia+SAA+Iran+Hizbullah+YPG Kurds+progovernment sectarian militias+Palestinian militias continues its offensives all over NW Syria, South of Damascus and in the rebel held suburbs of Damascus.

Turkey - Erdogan's crypto Islamist party regained control of the parliamentary political process in November.  In spite of that, outrage has grown in Turkey against obvious ant-Kurdish government military and police action and Erdogan's attempts to subvert the Kemalist secular constitution.  Turkey maintains a supposedly neutral posture in the islamist war against secularism in Syria while continuing to facilitate islamist supply and reinforcements through Turkish territory.  US/Turkish problems over Turkish bombing of the YPG Kurds (US allies) and their USSF advisers has continued and a possible withdrawal of permission for US use of the base at Incirlik looms.

Iraq -  The Abadi government's cooperation with Russia and Iran continues to increase.

Israel - Coordination of activities with Russia continues but occasional Israeli air attacks in Syria against Hizbullah targets has created additional tension with Russia.

Iran - Participation in the R+6 coalition continues to grow in both Syria and Iraq as well as in Russia's diplomatic efforts with regard to Syria.

Gulfies -SA and friends in the Gulf continue to support jihadi enemies of secularism in Syria and Iraq.

US - America continues to support anti-Western forces in Syria and Iraq.  US Army Green Berets are inserted into the territory controlled by the YPK Kurds to assist them in various ways.

Russia - Continues to press its diplomatic effort seeking to craft a peace that does not hand over Syria to jihadis.  at the same time Russia continues to reinforce both its air and ground expeditionary forces in Syria.

Ukraine - The Kiev government continues to attempt to regain territory in the east.

Afghanistan - Government control continues to be contested heavily by Taliban forces.

World Economy - Oil and Gas prices around the world remain "soft."

China - ???????

Comments in the game that are just meaningless or silly will not be posted or considered. 

The question posed - What will happen between 2 November, 2015 and 1 February 2016?  Real World comments in this turn will close on 5 November, 2015.  pl 

"George Did Not Keep Us Safe" By Richard Sale

   

 Marc Thiessen, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist at The Washington Post, can always be depended on not to tell the truth when a simple lie will do.  

Recently, he exhibited his underscored his offensive blend of tone-deafness and historical ignorance when he.wrote: President George W. Bush “inherited a world where terrorists had been permitted safe haven in terrorist states and were engaged in a virtually unimpeded offensive.” (My italics and a blatant lie.)  “Under his predecessor, they had launched a string of attacks against the United States: the first effort to bring down the World Trade Center in 1993; the murder of 19 American airmen at the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia three years later; the 1998 bombing of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania; and the attack on the USS Cole in 2000, which caused the deaths of 17 American sailors. In none of these cases was there a forceful U.S. response.” (Another blatant lie.) “As a result, al-Qaeda was convinced that the United States was soft and that if they hit us hard enough, we could be forced to retreat and withdraw as we had in Beirut and Somalia.” 195

All this is rock-headed --, it’s as stupid as a stone. The last paragraph is especially dishonest. Thiessen belongs to the Bush neocons whose members include Bill Kristol, Elliott Abrams, James Woolsey, Fred Hiatt, Max Boot, et al.  Said Steve Walt, “No, the real problem is that the neoconservative worldview — one that still informs the thinking of many of the groups and individuals who are most vocal in opposing the Iran deal — is fundamentally flawed. Getting Iraq wrong wasn’t just an unfortunate miscalculation, it happened because their theories of world politics were dubious and their understanding of how the world works was goofy…Once again we see put on display the neocons’ stubborn and morally dubious refusal to admit they were wrong and take responsibility for the lives and money they squandered.”