Turkish Elections on November 1, 2015 (by CP)

Turkey is going to elect a new parliament this weekend and the election results will determine what to expect of Turkish foreign policy vis a vis Syria and beyond. Issues looming large are the be Kurdish-Turkish and Kemalist-Erdoğanist divides, and Erdoğan's designs for Turkey (the new constitution he envisions) and Syria.

The Independent reports:

"Turkey goes to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that threatens to increase polarisation in a country that is already deeply divided.

At stake is the extent to which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has ruled Turkey since 2002, can establish one-party rule and near monopoly of political power. 

The election is still in the balance, but inside Turkey the campaign has widened the fault lines between Kurds and Turks, secular and Islamic, Sunni majority and Alevi minority. Abroad, the results may determine the degree to which Turkey becomes further embroiled in the civil war in Syria and Iraq."

This thread is intended to provide a pool for information on the topic, so post away all news and info you have.

Links:

OSCE: Early Parliamentary Elections, 1 November 2015

Turkey election 2015: a guide to the parties, polls and electoral system

Turkey election: Could bitterly divided nation be only a few steps away from a dictatorship?

Turkish police storm opposition media offices as election looms

by confusedponderer

Comments

[bth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-27/turkey-files-gas-price-claim-against-gazprom-as-pipe-talk-stalls Turkey is discovering it may be second largest market for gas from Russia but it has no leverage whatever in that relationship.

[LeaNder]

interesting, fjdixon:

******

https://twitter.com/emostaque

"Emad Mostaque ‏@EMostaque 28. Okt.

I think this piece on Turkey & Syria ahead of crucial elections is one of the best I've written: http://www.ecstrat.com/research/ankara-cui-bono/ …"

******

that said, seems I again may have once again proved my nitwittiness in this comment section: The Sufi field seems to be more complex then I realized too. ;)

[Will]

RTE's wife is an ethnic Arab. this is from 2004 and has a lot of spin b/ damn interesting. Note, i despise the neocon Economist:

"Her life story is intriguing. Born into a modest ethnic-Arab family from the south-eastern province of Siirt, Mrs Erdogan embraced Islamist politics at an early age. She met her husband at a rally in Istanbul where Mr Erdogan, then a fiery youth leader, was reciting poetry. At first they had to overcome resistance from Tayyip's mother, who insisted her son marry a girl shrouded in the full head-to-toe chador instead. “Tayyip lost weight trying to win over his mother, he looked like a ghost,” said Sule Yuksel Senler, an Islamist woman writer, who acted as go-between.

Through her work in the women's arm of the now defunct Welfare party, Emine helped her husband become mayor of Istanbul in 1994. He was removed from office four years later on charges of seeking to incite a religious rebellion through a poem he recited at a rally in Siirt. He spent four months in jail on the same charges.

The experience marked the couple profoundly. Mr Erdogan broke away from the Islamists to form his own party, saying his new goal was to lead Turkey into the European Union. Around that time Mrs Erdogan, friends say, converted from Shafi'ism (an orthodox version of Sunni Islam which forbids all physical contact between men and women unless they are married) to the more liberal Hanafi school, followed by most Turks, so she could shake hands with men and non-Muslim women."

http://www.economist.com/node/3093576
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shafi%27i

[turcopolier]

will

Except for the Hanbali associated Sunnis, I have never seen a lot of differences in social behavior among the other Sunni mathahib; shafa'i, maliki and hanafi. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

The major common food-sharing holiday in Muslim world is Eid al-Fitr that marks the end of Ramadan; please see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eid_al-Fitr. Often gifts are exchanged etc.

In Iran, in addition to that, there is the food-sharing night of Yalda - please see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yald%C4%81.

But it is not an official holiday.

[Valissa]

Very interesting.. thank you Babak!

“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world." -J.R.R. Tolkien

FYI everyone, when you first click on one of these links Wikipedia will say it can't find it. But if you delete the '.' at the end of the URL it will come up.

[Kunuri]

Fair enough, I will answer your question in due time, but I can't get to the information I dug up on him during Gezi Protests two years ago.

[LeaNder]

while you dig. ;)

CFR?? did I miss something. Could be, we all try to align with the US use of acronyms. But sometimes it needs time and attention.

[The Beaver]

Looks like we will see a dictator in Turkey soon- The Sultan is on his way for a majority

[Will]

yep, but at least not a super-majority that could re-write the Constitution, as if he would care.

would not want to judge him:
" 'Each of us is a mixture of some good and some not so good qualities. In considering one's fellow man it's important to remember the good things ... We should refrain from making judgments just because a fella happens to be a dirty, rotten SOB.'"

John Wayne

[bth]

AKP wins decisively.
http://www.edition.cnn.com/2015/11/01/europe/turkey-election/index.html

[William R. Cumming]

CO! Further thoughts?