Turkish Elections on November 1, 2015 (by CP)

Turkey is going to elect a new parliament this weekend and the election results will determine what to expect of Turkish foreign policy vis a vis Syria and beyond. Issues looming large are the be Kurdish-Turkish and Kemalist-Erdoğanist divides, and Erdoğan's designs for Turkey (the new constitution he envisions) and Syria.

The Independent reports:

"Turkey goes to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that threatens to increase polarisation in a country that is already deeply divided.

At stake is the extent to which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has ruled Turkey since 2002, can establish one-party rule and near monopoly of political power. 

The election is still in the balance, but inside Turkey the campaign has widened the fault lines between Kurds and Turks, secular and Islamic, Sunni majority and Alevi minority. Abroad, the results may determine the degree to which Turkey becomes further embroiled in the civil war in Syria and Iraq."

This thread is intended to provide a pool for information on the topic, so post away all news and info you have.

Links:

OSCE: Early Parliamentary Elections, 1 November 2015

Turkey election 2015: a guide to the parties, polls and electoral system

Turkey election: Could bitterly divided nation be only a few steps away from a dictatorship?

Turkish police storm opposition media offices as election looms

by confusedponderer

Comments

[Will]

thnx- CP's work is always thorough and industrious.
the following was a guest post on the saker site. It explores the three facets of Erdogan: Development, Islamist, and pan-Turkic. You just never know which one of his personalities will show up. the most telling quote is that "democracy is just a train, when you get to your destination, then you just step off," or words to that effect.

the big unknown is that 10% threshold which Ishmael Zaccariah mentioned was defeated last election by a tradeoff system b/c the Kurdish party and another party.

http://thesaker.is/the-predictable-erdogan/

[ex-PFC Chuck]

It looks to me like an update of the theme of "one person, one vote, one time" to "one person, one vote, multiple times until you get the result you want."

[LeaNder]

Thanks, cp, was on my mind yesterday.

[Valissa]

Some good articles on Turkey over at Al-Monitor's Turkey Pulse section http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/turkey-pulse

What will Erdogan do if AKP fails again? http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/turkey-elections-what-erdogan-does-if-akp-flops-again.html
In an Oct. 17 speech, Erdogan made it known he will claim a personal victory even if the AKP repeats its June 7 failure to win a parliamentary majority, as expected. Lashing out at opposition leaders for refusing to visit his newly built palace, often called the “illegal palace” for its dubious construction, he said, “May stones as big as the ‘illegal palace’ fall down your heads. ... Sooner or later, you’ll come — like lambs. You can’t help but come.”

What could leave opposition leaders as helpless as lambs and make them go to the presidential palace? Becoming coalition partners or receiving the mandate to form the government, of course.

... Will Erdogan take the country to a third election if the AKP gets more than 40.8%, increasing the number of its parliamentary seats but still falling slightly short of the majority required for a one-party government?
--------------

This article isn't about the election... it focuses on the most recent economic tit-for-tat economic games between Turkey and Russia.

Russia puts brakes on Turkey's truck traffic http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/turkey-russia-syria-isis-economic-threats.html

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks for this POST and links CP!

[r whitman]

Evidently the international financial markets are not worried: Republic of Turkey long bond SEDOL BOWC9K6 quoted at a 16% premium over face value at 116.90 this morning.

[Kunuri]

Al-Monitor's Turkey Pulse is a reliable and objective source for information and opinion about Turkey in my experience, and my reading of local press and public opinion over here. But I have to admit, I could not help but smile as I was typing "Al-Monitor's Turkey Pulse", so close to Thanksgiving.

But seriously, one thing I am sure about is that HDP will get enough votes to carry it over the "barrage", dam, as you will, 10% minimum votes overall for parliamentary representation. It will be over 14% overall, if not more, since Kurds are completely alienated, feel betrayed, demonized, neglected and kicked around once more. They will sway, and show their contrary character and close ranks.

Secondly, AKP will not achieve enough PMs to capture majority in the parliament, therefore no longer able to form a government by itself, as it did in the last 13 years. Not to mention to change the Constitution, or make RTE Il Douche.

Thirdly, a coalition government is unavoidable in near future, which means curbing of RTE's megalomaniacal shenanigans, which he can ill afford. I expect, given my predictions above, a mother of all battles within the political arena post elections.

[Kunuri]

"Loaned votes", from the liberals to HDP just so that they will cross the 10% threshold for legitimate representation is no longer needed, Kurds will do just fine by themselves. Expect those votes to smoothly slide back over to the Social Democrat Republican People's Party, CHP.

[Kunuri]

Valissa, I had already read the article you had sited on your comment from Al-Monitor, by Kadri Gursel, the prominent journalist. He is as good as they come, I have been following him ever since I moved to Turkey. In fact, one day, I met him, sitting in a Café in the old Pera section of Istanbul, obviously waiting for a contact, or a date. I introduced myself, told him how I appreciate his work, and we started an involved conversation, pretty much in lines of what would happen if two of the prominent commentators here were to meet. I found him incredibly personable, knowledgeable and curious, more so for the fact of my own particular, multi-cultural outlook. I think he maybe on the board for Journalists Without Borders, or some other prestigious journalism NGO.

[BostonB]

OT: Ukraine faces years of dependence on Western aid
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-faces-years-dependence-western-aid-182807071.html?.gg_invalid=true

"VELYKI PRYTSKY, Ukraine (AP) — Looking on from her vegetable patch at the motorcade of U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, Ukrainian villager Olha Voloshchenko says she'd seen the lady on the TV news the night before, but "then the lights went off at our place."

The U.S. hopes agriculture in places like this dilapidated village will help rebuild Ukraine's shattered economy as it severs its centuries-old trade relations with Russia and tries to integrate with the West...

It is clear Ukraine will depend on U.S. and European financial support for years to come."

Some Wikipedia facts: Pritzker has an estimated net worth at US $2.4 billion. Pritzker was born in Chicago to a Jewish family in 1959, the daughter of Sue (née Sandel) and Donald N. Pritzker (1932–1972), one of the co-founders of Hyatt hotels, which grew dramatically under his leadership as President from 1959 until his death in 1972. Pritzker is a member of the Pritzker family of Chicago, an influential business family...
Penny Pritzker was chairperson of Superior Bank of Chicago from 1991–1994. In 1993, the bank "embarked on a business strategy of significant growth into subprime home mortgages.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_Pritzker

[Bandolero]

All

This one I find interesting: Erdogan claims that Obama campaign advisers work for the crucial pro-kurdish HDP party:

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151029/1029297975/erdogan-pro-kurdish-party-lies.html

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-president-thinks-obama-campaign-master-minds-behind-hdp.aspx?PageID=238&NID=90482&NewsCatID=338

[Will]

Integration of Ukraine farm products w/ Western Europe made me smile, as I recalled something I read about WW1. In the first Brest-Litovsk treaty, the German Empire would provide military protection for Uke food- millions of eggs, and tons of butter. Food for Peace? The Ukes did not deliver.

[Kunuri]

Hahaahaha, sooo funny, and hypocritical, I wish someone would come up with how many Carl Rove seminars, workshops and teach ins his staff has attended over the years. One has to be in dirty tricks school of Neocon hard asses to see the similarities of their tactics. Swift boating is and has been a common practice over here for years now. Fox News phenomenon and Rauch Limbo (not a misspelling) tactics have been implemented here, down to a tee. Not to mention advisors to RTE, straight out of CFR.

[Valissa]

Penny Pritzker is Obama's Chicago sugar mama. She was his entree to the .01% and a big factor in his early political prominence.

[Valissa]

Kunuri, good to know that Turkey Pulse and especially Kadri Gursel is a reputable news source.

Istanbul is in the top 5 of my current travel bucket list. Hoping to get there some time in the next couple of years.

Btw, does Turkey have any holiday similar to Thanksgiving? Or some type of harvest or other food-sharing based holiday?

[Fred]

Chuck,

Was it Stalin's quote about it not mattering who voted only who counts them? Kind of like Chicago.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Yes. Stalin.

[Kunuri]

Sadly, none that I know of. In pre-Christian times in Anatolia, for certain though. Artemis, the goddess of the wilderness, the hunt and wild animals, and fertility and good harvest, the helper of midwives and a goddess of birth was celebrated, sacrificed for and rejoiced for having made it in a hostile land for one more year. Thanksgiving in a different context, but the idea was the same as the pilgrims.

Please move a visit to Turkey up on your bucket list, you will not regret it.

[Kunuri]

CFR reference intentional, Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan press secretary and next inline for MIT head, National Intelligence Organization. Anyone interested, look up his pedigree, I did, and draw your own conclusions based upon whom he studied with, the papers he wrote and his mentors.

[J Villain]

"Turkish media denounce 'biggest crackdown on press in republic’s history'

Critics of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or government policies have been fired and pro-opposition media offices raided in run-up to elections"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/turkish-media-denounce-biggest-crackdown-on-press-in-republics-history

Does it work or does it backfire? Sure smells of panic.

[fjdixon]

Was not familar with this site but thought the latter part of this article with a thumbnail view of Turkish politics for the last century was most interesting:
http://www.ecstrat.com/research/ankara-cui-bono/

[Kunuri]

Unbelievable, Ibrahim Kalin has been wiped clean, no references to CFR. I am in awe if that is even possible, he attended Georgetown, but that is even as sterile as it gets. I hope I have some imprints from my look intos from two, three years previous. Tis man is dangerous.

[Kunuri]

I stand humbly corrected, Ibrahim Kalin, Georgetown University, School of Foreign Service, though I stand by earlier, all references to him has been erased. Check his not so public bio. And please leaf through some of his papers and publications, and this gut steers Turkish diplomacy and overall policy.

http://www.ibrahimkalin.com/test/ibrahim-kalin/#more-166

My earlier research puts him in the same academic corridors with some serious neocons. I can not find them online anymore.

[Seamus Padraig]

Actually, I think it was Boss Tweed.

[LeaNder]

CFR??? can't figure that one out.

German Wikipedia has an entry on him.

Why do you think he is dangerous?