SHORT AND SHARP: Which groups did the Russians target in Syria ?

By Patrick Bahzad

If you read this morning's newspapers about the latest events in Syria, you might think the Russian army has marched into Damascus. Not only that, but the baseline in the mainstream media is strikingly the same: the Russians have not attacked ISIS, contrary to what they had stated previously, but they have instead targeted "moderate" Syrian rebels, armed and supported by the West. This obviously implies that the Russians are not actually after ISIS, but aim at bolstering Assad's grip on power. While the long term implications of yesterday's airstrikes are unclear, as far as the Russian strategy and goals are concerned, one thing is certain: the narrative about the "moderate" rebels is a fairytale that should be seen for what it is, a PR-stunt that hides a much murkier and unsavoury truth.

The first Russian airstrikes in Syria were carried out by Su-24 and Su-25 jets which took off from Al-Assad airbase in Jableh, 20 miles South of Latakia. They targeted three locations, in three consecutive waves: 1. the area South-West of Idlib (Ghnam/Dayr Hanna), on the frontline between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and various rebel groups  2. the rebel controled area North of Hama (Latamneh/Kafr Zita) and 3. the rebel enclave North of Homs (Talbisah/Rastan and Zafaraneh).

Targets and objectives

Footage of the airstrikes, released by the Russian Ministry of Defence, as well as videos posted on social media by the rebels, show that the Russian aircraft didn't use high precision guided weapons, but laser guided bunker busters, Glonass (Russian GPS) guided bombs and electro-optical TV-guided bombs. The success or failure of the Russian "sorties" cannot be assessed based on this footage and news about casualties or collateral damage should be taken with caution, as a first series of pictures allegedly depicting civilian victims was already debunked as a fraud.

What can be analysed however is the tactical goals the Russians were aiming for, based on their choice of targets and the locations they hit. In this regard, two different sets of tactical objectives can already be identified:

- in the area of Latakia, the Russians are going to try and roll back the frontline in order to make the deployment area of their forces more secure. To this end, yesterday's airstrikes took place along the M4 highway between Latakia and Aleppo, as this road will need to be secured in order to interdict rebel logistics convoys arriving to the front. Control of the M4 will also be vital for the SAA and its allies, if a counter-offensive towards Idlib and Aleppo is to be launched at a later date. According to certain sources, Lebanese Hezbollah might take part in such a ground operation somewhere along the frontline in the triangle of Kibilli, Al Haffah and Slinfah. A secondary objective North of Latakia will be for the Russian forces or the SAA to regain control of areas along the border to Turkey, so as to stop the inflow of rebel weapons and fighters trickling through this porous frontier,

- in the central corridor, i.e. the area connecting Damascus in the South to Aleppo in the North, the Russian airstrikes specifically targeted rebel controlled areas along the M5 highway. These rebel pockets disrupt the territorial continuity of government areas and, more importantly prevent the use of the M5 to reach the rebel strongholds around Idlib and Aleppo. In all likelihood, ground operations by Syrian government forces will be carried out as a follow-up to the current sequence of airstrikes, once the tactical goals of the attacks have been reached, especially in the small rebel enclave in between Hama and Homs.

Targeted rebel groups

The main issue with yesterday's airstrikes is clearly the controversy about the rebel groups that have been targeted. In official statements made recently, Russian officials have insisted on ISIS being the focus of their action. However, it has to be said that yesteday's airstrikes didn't come within 35 miles of the closest ISIS position in Syria. No doubt, the Russians have an agenda of their own and it shouldn't come as a surprise that they are willing to support the Syrian government, which is not necessarily the same as the Assad clan. They might also be planning to degrade or destroy the Chechen and Caucasus groups operating in Northern Syria, for quite obvious reasons.

Be that as it may, and regardless of the Russian strategy, it also needs to be emphasized that even though the targeted rebels were not ISIS, they were not secularist "moderates" either. According to most news outlets however, the rebel positions hit by the Russians were part of the "Free Syrian Army", the armed branch of the allegedly secular opposition. Interestingly, this statement is based on one single testimony made to Reuters by the leader of a group which has been provided with US weapons as part of a covert CIA programme that was ended earlier this year.

Jamil Al-Saleh, the leader of "Tajamu al-Izza" indicated during a Skype interview with Reuters that his rebels had nothing to do with Al Qaeda franchise "Jabhat al Nusra" (JaN), nor with any other radical Salafi group, and that his area of Hama was free of those radicals. Saleh, who is presented alternatively as "Captain", "Major" or even "Colonel" didn't mention that all over 2014, rebel offensives along the M5 central corridor, in the region of Hama and Homs, were spearheaded by JaN or affiliated groups and that none of the independent units, including his own "Tajamu al-Izza" would ever have been able to secure military wins against governments troops, had it not been for the "command and control" or the manpower of the Al Qaeda fighters. 

Collusion with "Jabhat al Nusra" Jihadis

In February 2014 for example, JaN seized control of the city of Morek, North of Hama, not very far from one of the locations of yesterday's airstrikes. In the summer of 2014, several other offensives by JaN were lead all along the M5 between Hama and Homs, and in late August, JaN even staged an assault on the outskirts of Homs. There are numerous other confirmed examples of close cooperation between so called "moderates", some of them armed and supported by the West or their regional allies, and the Jihadis of JaN or similar groups, such as "Ahrar al-Sham".

Even the former military leader of the FSA, Gen. Salim Idriss, officially ackowledged that his FSA units were cooperating with the Salafi "Ahrar al-Sham" group. Today, "Ahrar al-Sham" is one of the largest Islamist rebel groups operating in Syria and it has entered into a coalition with JaN, known as "Jaysh al-Fath". The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a NGO that is very close to the opposition and thus cannot be suspected of Syrian government propaganda, also mentioned that JaN convoys were being sent from Aleppo to Hama, notably in August 2014. 

Considering the amount of official and traceable evidence regarding Al Qaeda presence around Hama and Homs, Jamil al-Saleh's statements sound almost laughable, were they not presented as gospel by the mainstream media. But the collusion between the FSA and JaN goes even further than this.

Not only did the defunct FSA groups cooperate with JaN, but even in al-Saleh's outfit, a subgroup openly defected to JaN in August 2014. "Liwa al Bitar", as it was called, pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on August 26th 2014 and has taken part in most of JaN's operations around Hama ever since. This anecdote perfectly exemplifies the complexities of the Syrian rebel nexus, a labyrinth of groups and names that can be changed from one day to the next, just like the allegiances of their leaders.

The most radical of the foreign fighters

Further North, in between Lattakia and Idlib, the situation is even worse. JaN has officially established an "Emirate" in this area. Al Qaeda's rule here is undisputed. This is where "moderate" groups that had benefited from the CIA weapons programme were taken appart by the Jihadis late last year. It is also here that the now infamous "Division 30" disaster took place earlier in 2015.

The Idlib Emirate however also serves as a hideout for autonomous groups that feature prominently among the most radical and violent Jihadis in Syria: "Jaysh Al-Muhajireen wal Ansar" (Chechen and Caucasus jihadis), "Harakat Sham Al-Islam" (Moroccan jihadis with former Guantanamo inmates as leaders) and "Junud Al-sham" (a group born out of the merger between Palestinian-lebanese "Fatah Al-islam" and various Chechen splinter groups).

Interestingly, these independent Jihadi groups mentioned above have always maintained close connections and good relationships with ISIS, even though they refused to join or sometimes stated simply their neutrality in the ISIS vs AQ infighting. It has to be noted however, that these groups are as close to ISIS as they are to AQ, and that they might runover to Al-baghdadi's troops if events on the ground or self-interest (money) calls for it. 

 

Reminder and outlook

 

Overall, while it is true that the Russians have not yet attacked any actual ISIS positions, they have clearly stated their willingness to confront Jihadi and Takfiri groups, going after their safehavens in North-Western and Central Syria, and they still have plenty of time to deliver on their pledge to take the fight to ISIS as well.

 

In this context, it should be noted that the US did hardly anything else when they went after groups other than ISIS, as part of the Coalition airstrikes against the Islamic State: on September 23rd and November 6th 2014 for example, the US Air Force hit several targets that had nothing to do with ISIS (the objectives of these strikes were an Al Qaeda cell in Syria, the so called "Khorasan group", and JaN ally "Ahrar Al-sham").

 

How the Russian operation will shape up remains to be seen. For now, everything indicates they intend to destroy pockets of Jihadi fighters within territory under Syrian governement control, especially along the strategic M5 highway in the central corridor, they plan on pushing the JaN power base around Idlib further away from the Latakia region, and they will possibly target ISIS or groups close to it, probably in conjunction with other members of the coalition they're trying to put together (Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah).

Comments

[turcopolier]

b

You do plenty well enough. Glad to have you write here, most of the time. pl

[Patrick Bahzad]

I think BM's and my comment were not to be taken too seriously either ...

[Patrick Bahzad]

There are a few pieces on SST that deal extensively with the help given to syrian rebels. Nothing new here.

[Thomas]

Valissa,

A Darkh Humor question: Who are the Moderate Jihadis?

A: The queasy ones at a decapitation demonstration.

[FB Ali]

Moon of Alabama is a site well worth visiting every day. I always find it informative and, often, illuminating.

Thank you for the effort you put into it. I hope you'll keep it up.

[turcopolier]

Valissa

One thing you can always be sure of The CIA will arrange to have the better press. pl

[LeaNder]

b, I can understand your substitution: Moon of Alabama versus Whisky Bar it seemed the obvious change for me at the time. In fact it may have run through my mind too.

Maybe you found your own voice, but this voice never reached billmon's, for the very simply he had many, many questions, and I guess that's why he was attractive, many of us struggled with the many, many questions, while you seem, to the extend I ever looked at your blog; seemed to offer answers. explanations.

I may no doubt do you wrong. That's human isn't it?

Let me repeat: "it was a stupid comment"

But from my own limited perception it has to do with Αισθητική, and/or the basic assumption that no doubt blogs after a while may collect a community. But I do not like it when the community takes over. Besides it reminds me of some other events I watched. And no, I cannot explain it beyond:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aesthetics#Etymology

My perception is limited no doubt.

[turcopolier]

LeAnder

"I do not like it when the community takes over" I would love to have someone take over, but only someone I approve of. pl

[LeaNder]

I can understand that. I am much less sure if it would be the same place after. ;)

[bondo]

thanks, i understand.
just assumed since israel is the jewish state of, by, for only jews, saying jew(s) would be appropriate. and since vast majority of west's jews support the state named for them....

[Valissa]

PL, one of the key things I have learned from you is that there is lots of infighting at the high levels of our gov't, and that there is significant rivalry between, for instance, the CIA and DIA. Lots of big egos and ambitions all around. This is the basis of the questions I asked above.

In high tech, some companies will assign different departments the same R&D goals, but each dept. may or may not know it's not the only one working on it. The goal is this is to foster competition to supposedly provide a superior outcome.

Should I assume that something similar is at play here with regards to training to so-called "moderate" rebels? That both the CIA and DoD/Pentagon were competing to do the best job at such? Or was it more of a coordinated and cooperative effort? Or both?

[Valissa]

I try not to take anyone or anything too seriously, though I don't always achieve that goal ;)

"To see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

[different clue]

LeaNder,

I doubt that Moon of Alabama would have adopted Whiskey Bar's physical screen appearance and style if Billmon had not given overt permission in advance.

(I remembered reading once that Bill Montgomery was some kind of financial analyst for a living. So I felt confident that I just KNEW that
"billmon" stood for "bill-month". Later I learned how wrong I was about that.)

[Valissa]

My favorite is the first one. If anyone else has a good answer to this, feel free to share :)

How many jihadis does it take to change a light bulb? Allah them.

How many jihadis does it take to change a light bulb? None, because they want to take everyone to the dark ages.

How many ISIS jihadis does it take to change a light bulb? They keep the light bulb and change the Middle East.

[Patrick Bahzad]

You're free to have an anti-Israel bias, guess there are plenty of arguments to plead this case. Just don't drift into the antisemitic dribble.

[Odin's Raven]

My thanks to those who noticed my exuberant little comment.

My ignorance of Arabic grammar leaves me unabashed, particularly as I'm writing English, and even in adopting a foreign word or catchphrase, it would not change someone's name.

However, it seems that the ignorance of some of the cannibal head-choppers fighting under the black banner may not be much less than mine.It is alleged that they don't get their slogan right. Instead of the intended 'Mohammed is the messenger of Allah'. they write 'Allah is the messenger of Mohammed.' Perhaps some unexpected honesty?
Mohammed's seal
'There is another interesting finding in Mohammed’s seal, as it appears on the Islamic State’s flag. The seal incorporates the second part of the Islamic statement of faith (shahada), which reads “Mohammed is the messenger of Allah”, or does it? As a matter of fact, it reads the exact opposite – “Allah is the messenger of Mohammed”! Arabic is read from right to left and from top to bottom, therefore, by observing this rule the writing on the stamp reads: ‘Allah is the messenger of Mohammed’.'

With any luck its the jihadis who will be carried away, now that President Putin appears to have accepted a three months stint as Allah's Appointment Secretary, arranging for these people to have a personal interview a lot sooner than they expected. Maybe HE was displeased by the lack of progress made by the forces of the President who is alleged to be a Muslim, but whose airforce just can't seem to find the terrorists.
Details
'"US and ISIS camps in Syria" The two striking things about the Russian operation are the level of detail provided by Russian officials (unlike the Americans, who try to hide everything as they are rightfully ashamed of the outrages they commit for World Jewry), and the ease with which the Russians are accomplishing military goals which were seemingly beyond the imagination of the great American military machine. How utterly embarrassing to be an American! "Russia inflicted more damage on ISIS in one day than the most powerful and expensive army in the world did in a year" '

As for me being an Israeli, that is really amusing! Thank you for the laugh.Those people may be familiar with Elijah's ravens, Odin's.. not so much.

Less humorously, it is alleged that the Saudi royal family are descended from Jews, and may even be crypto-jews.
Aangirfin
More seriously, some say that the latest stampede at the hajj was a cover for a Mossad operation to kidnap Iranian officials, in collaboration with the Saudis, presumably because of differences over Syria.
Mossad at Mecca
Maybe its a Middle Eastern habit to accuse everyone else of being Jews.

Ayatollah Khomeini may have said that 'there is no fun in Islam', but until the cannibals, slavers and head-choppers win, the rest of us may retain a sense of humour, including about Islam.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Ayatollah Khomeini said: "Islam does not kid with any one..."

We know from both metaphysical ground and empirical grounds that God has a sense of humor: metaphysically since everything must originate from Him and empirically because such as creature as Aardvark exists.

[LeaNder]

Yes, I was mean, I regret that! Trying to wriggle out of the affair instead of simply admitting: I should have kept my big mouth shut, made matters worse.

I liked billmon's montage/assemblage technique. b, obviously approaches matters pretty differently with a lot more attention on the military. Besides, after all these years ...

Last but not least: our host teaches us to not judge sources the way I did here. Thus sorry b:

http://www.moonofalabama.org/

[lauld45@yahoo.com]

With all due respect to all of these learned opinions, we all agree on the red herring of moderate opposition groups. But, so far the Russians (as one would expect) have taken on targets of the most immediate importance to the regime. One effect has been to allow ISIS move into parts of Aleppo and target rebel groups since the pressure is off them for the moment. I'm not sure anyone, including the Russians has a plan for Syria that goes much beyond tomorrow.