SHORT AND SHARP: Russian airstrikes on "Rastan" enclave and latest rebel reactions

By Patrick Bahzad


Over the last few days, Russia has carried on with its air-strikes in Syria. While the explicit rationale is still the fight against ISIS, statements by Russian officials as well as targeted areas show that the spectrum of the attacks is much larger, and that any Salafi/Jihadi group operating on Syrian territory – especially along the central corridor and in the North-West of the country – can expect to be hit.

It is probably safe to assume that the Russian air force also flew a couple of "sorties" against ISIS positions in or around Raqqa, but most of its missions were aimed at targets in the centre and in the North-West of the country. The latest series of strikes focused in particular on the rebel enclave of Rastan, a small area located in Syria's central corridor, between Homs and Hama.

These strikes confirm earlier reports on SST according to which one of the Russian priorities is to destroy rebel pockets along the M5 highway and to secure this vital line of communication, with a view to launching ground operations against Islamist groups North of Hama.

New evidence of alliance between "moderates" and Jihadis

Meanwhile, further evidence has surfaced, confirming collusion of so-called "moderates" with Salafi/Jihadi groups. Indeed, the rebel factions in the Rastan enclave have now established another "joint operations room" (sort of a command and control centre), in which remnants of FSA units will join hard-core "Jabhat al-Nusra" (JaN) and "Ahrar al-Sham" representatives.

While last week's reports in the mainstream media were buzzing with statements by rebel commander Jamil al-Saleh, who explained that there were no Jihadis in his area, it now turns out that his troops have entered into a tactical alliance with the same Jihadis he claimed were not even present in the first place.

This piece of evidence should be another blow for the still popular myth of the "moderate" rebels. In particular, the new terminology used by Beltway experts and DC officials, calling the radicals "Islamic conservatives" or "Islamic nationalists", can now be seen as the plain repackaging effort it has been since its inception.

In addition to Jihadi heavyweights "Jabhat al-Nusra" and "Ahrar al-Sham", the Rastan "joint operations room" regroups "Faylaq al-Homs" and "Jaish al-Tawhid". As previously stated, names don't really matter that much when it comes to Syrian rebels and JaN's ascendancy in terms of "command and control" and "force multiplier" can be taken for granted.

Ahrar al-Sham's connection to Al Qaeda central

The same can be said - to a lesser degree - of "Ahrar al-Sham" (AAS), a sometimes overlooked but increasingly powerful group, that survived the destruction of its entire leadership during a bombing late last year and has since then regained power and traction through its alliance with JaN, under the coalition name "Jaish al-Fath".

Although AAS did not pledge formally allegiance to Al Qaeda's leader, the group has a strong ideological, religious and strategic connection to Ayman al-Zawahiri, through some of AAS' founding fathers, or spiritual leaders if you will, such as Abu Musab al-Suri and Abu Khalid al-Suri.

The former is a long term acquaintance of Osama Bin Laden, whom he met in the late 1980s in Afghanistan. Abu Musab al-Suri made a name for himself in the world of global Jihad as the author of "The Global Islamic Resistance Call ", a manual that is considered by many as the blue-print for Al Qaeda's strategy in the post-9/11 world. He is also suspected of having been involved in the Madrid train bombings in 2004. Although his current whereabouts are not clear, al-Suri's teachings were taken fully onboard by Ahrar al-Sham's military leadership.

The other al-Suri – by no way a relation to the former ("Suri" meaning simply "Syrian") – who played a central role in the establishment of Ahrar al-Sham is Abu Khalid al-Suri. He too was a long-term Al-Qaeda veteran and acted as Ayman Al-Zawahiri's courier in the first years of the Syrian civil war. A major player within Ahrar al-Sham, perfectly illustrating the many personal bridges existing between Al Qaeda and groups close to its ideology, Abu Khalid al-Suri was killed in an ISIS car bomb attack early in 2014, while trying to mediate in the power struggle between JaN and ISIS.

A glimpse of Al Qaeda's "Maoist" strategy in Syria

Although Abu Khalid al-Suri's death cemented the rift between JaN and ISIS, his presence among Syrian rebel groups not affiliated with Al Qaeda shows that the organisation was careful enough to hedge its bets and placed many of its senior to mid-level assets within various rebel outfits.

In doing so, Al Qaeda not only followed operational guidance laid out by its theorists of decentralized Jihad, but also went a step further and seem to have applied one of Mao Zedong's principles in his theory of the People's war. While Mao insisted that "guerilla fighters must be able to move among the population like fish in the water", it certainly looks like Al Qaeda made this a guiding principle in infiltrating a wide array of rebel groups, factions and units initially labelled as "secularists" and "moderates".

The sheer military power of the Jihadis probably also explains to a certain extent the traction they are having among other rebels. Formerly powerful "FSA" units lost both men and support through their own military inefficiency, through their gamble on accepting US overt and covert support  and through clever manipulation by the extremists.

"Faylaq al-Homs" in particular had several thousand men under arms at one point, but disbanded by the end of last year, due to internal feuds over the end-goal of the insurgency ("secular State" vs entity ruled by Sharia law). Most of its constituent groups went separate ways and what is left of it probably does not amount to much.

Outlook

If the current pattern of Russian air-strikes prevails, this would confirm SST's previous assessments regarding the possible course of action over the weeks to come, namely that of a large scale ground operation in the central corridor, possibly launched prior or simultaneously with "clear and hold" operations in Latakia province and the Jabal al-Zawiya area.

Interestingly, the "Southern front" has remained strangely calm, which suggests that the Russian/Syrian forces have decided to let go of this area for now, or that local rebels groups have been called back to bases in Jordan, for whatever reasons.

Comments

[jld]

Could you have a look on those 2 bits of info from a war-maniac nutcase on Twitter who nevertheless seem to have interesting sources.
1) Turkish troops getting close to the northwest Syria border:
https://twitter.com/A_J_S_B/status/650806388579565569
For internal anti-Kurdish use or interference in Syria?
2) Propaganda leaflets warning of imminent offensive:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltXiTDMqrbI&feature=youtu.be

[Patrick Bahzad]

I've been monitoring social media nutcases all day long, so guess one more won't make a difference !

1) All I see is around 80 guys getting into a plane ...

2) leaflets look more genuine, but doesn't mean anything imminent coming up - would be surprised if there was more than minor engagements at this point.

Possibly a way of luring their enemies out of their hideouts ... easier targets for airstrikes. Also for intel purposes, as the Russians have plenty of "eyes" on the area, so any reaction or move would possibly be registered, analysed and turned into "actionable" intel

[Ishmael Zechariah]

jld,

1-Turkish troops or air assets will not enter combat against Russians. No way, no how. Issuing such an order will cause unintended consequences. Forget the bloviating by the "prime-minister".
2-The displaced Jihadis are moving northwest and will try to regroup inside Turkey. This might result in hot pursuit by Russian air, or it might not. We will live and see.
3-The likelihood of a joint Hizbullah/Iranian/SAA infantry mop-up of the area and associated cross-border raids is also a possibility. Our kids, unfortunately, will have to be there.

The current regime in Turkey is in panic. It is fun to watch them.

Ishmael Zechariah

[BostonB]

Colonel,

With all the talk I hear from John Kasich, Hillary Clinton, Carly Fiorina, John McCain, et al., about confronting Russia militarily and imposing a no-fly zone in Syria, I have added a few things to my daily routine and wanted to get your take on it.

I bought a heat-reflecting emergency blanket and keep it with me at all times.
I have studied this film closely: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=89od_W8lMtA
I try to practice what I've learned in this instructional video. It is from the fifties and only addresses atomic (fission) bombs. Nonetheless, I will routinely drill with the moves I've learned in the video and will randomly dive behind a wall or against a building and cover myself with the reflective blanket.

Anyway, do you think this is an effective nuke survival technique or am I being roughed up needlessly by the Boston PD?

[b]

The "Southern Front" failed several times to take Deraa and was recalled. They were allegedly cut off by some of their sponsors after they disregarded orders from the Military Command Room in Jordan. The north-south pincer on Damascus failed with them.

Since the Jordan king visited Moscow it is really quiet on that front. Jordan did not sign the preposterous U.S./F/GB/G/SA/QT statement telling Russia to only bomb IS.

I currently assume that Jordan, and the southern front, are either completely out of the regime change business or in a long reorganization phase. There is also the Al Aqsa trouble that keeps Jordan busy.

[Thomas]

Ishmael,

"The current regime in Turkey is in panic."

Could you elaborate more?

[turcopolier]

b & PB

King Abdullah is a sensible man as his father was and I suspect that he has decided that he doesn't want a jihadi state on his northern border. The Russians probably sweetened the deal somehow to make it easier for him to change course. pl

[LeaNder]

thanks, interesting.

There was a time during my stay in Northern Ireland when the citizen of the little town wanted me to leave the cottage. I tried to convince them, that whatever it was, I would simply "duck and cover" beneath the big table nearby.

Didn't help, but then it was a fake alarm. ;)

But then, they surely didn't expect, whatever it was they expected, a nuke attack.

[Patrick Bahzad]

that would be my guess too.

[Matthew]

PB; I wonder if the WH has considered the real "domino" threat here. If Russia succeeds in Syria, then what happens when they ask Lebanon if maybe they want their airspace protected too?

[Patrick Bahzad]

I don't think any domino effect of that sort is likely, as Lebanon is not exactly on the Russian side, despite having Hezbollah as an indirect ally.

Besides, what would the Lebanese airspace be protected from ? Israeli incursions ? Not worth all that money the Russians are spending ! Nothing to gain there.

The only possible domino effect is if Syria falls to the Jihadis and their so-called moderate friends. Lebanon would be next in line, with Jordan just behind.

[crone]

I think Iraq is next in line ... ;-)

[Tyler]

Sir,

Do you think the Russians promised him some of the more modern military hardware that the US has denied selling him?

[bth]

The natural gas pipeline routes needed to supply electricity to regime areas would be a logical path of advancement. http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=60316

[turcopolier]

tyler

I would bet on that. maybe Jordan doesn't need us any longer. IMO the Russian forces have been badly underestimated. pl

[Matthew]

Col: And Putin probably doesn't lecture Egyptians and Jordanians about Israel, either.

[FB Ali]

The Saudis and their Arab stooges have threatened to provide military support to "their" rebels. This probably means weapons (AA or AT); the likely route would be through Lebanon.

Any chance of such things getting through?

[Patrick Bahzad]

Difficult at the moment. No direct land route, which leaves the following entry points:
* Kleyate Airport in Tripoli
* maritime route, again most likely through Tripoli.
The major problem would be getting deliveries through the border. Since the fall of Qusayr to Hezbollah/SAA, the main road into rebel controlled areas in Syria has been cut off.
With the Russians taking control of the Allawi heartland, this could be a potentially dangerous development for Northern Lebanon, as it might be used as a launch-pad for a counter offensive in an area that is currently not a focal point of interest for the Russian/Syrian forces.
With Hezbollah possibly tied up elsewhere, and not very popular anyway in this part of Lebanon, there is a risk here, even if it seems quite remote at this point.

[VietnamVet]

PB

Your facts on the ground are priceless.

All I can go on is the past but I am convinced that Russia has kicked a hornet’s nest. Vladimir Putin may have had no choice with the economic sanctions placed on them by the West, the Ukraine Civil War next door and the European refugee crisis. Russia will cut out an enclave defended by Syrian Army and the minority militias but they are now in a total war with militant Sunni Islam. America is covertly supporting Sunnis in Syria in an attempt to replay Afghanistan once more to destabilize Russia.

The Western European Refugee Crisis started when Turkey freed the millions of refugees in their camps with the start of the war against the America’s ally, the Kurds. Greece stopped border enforcement due to austerity placed on them by the Eurozone. A way to trek to Germany and England was opened if one has enough money to pay the smugglers.

We are now in a bi-polar world, a tottering American Empire against Russia and China. If Iranian forces infiltrate Syria to support the Shiite militias, it is not a civil war anymore. It is a regional religious war with all three monotheists religions; Christianity, Judaism and Islam as active participants.

The only way to stop the Sunni Shiite Jihad from escalating into World War III is for America to back down. Fat Chance with Clinton, Bush, Fiorina and Kasich all supporting imposing a no fly zone over Syria which means an air and sea battle with nuclear armed Russia.

[Tyler]

Sir,

That ECM suite sseems to have impressed the hell out of you, and rightfully so. Have you had to revise your own position on the state of the Russian military?

Do you think the Russians deliberately underplayed their hand and the actual state of their armies to spring this surprise down? This entire op does not look like a thing that was undertaken at a whim, but an expeditionary force deployed by professionals used to doing it.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Thomas,
I will try to write a summary worthy of this site, but this will take me a while. In the meantime perhaps the following will suffice:
1-The entire foreign policy of the regime was predicated on winning in Syria (http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/09/26/erdogans-syria-frustrations/ )
-As the issue started to drag on, he became weaker: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/01/25/erdogan-s-foreign-policy-reset.html
-The PKK fight (another part of the ISIS gambit, in our opinion) has flared again and we are losing soldiers. This is not playing well with the population.
-If the ISIS militants regroup in Turkey and start fighting with our forces, with resultant military and civilian casualties, tayyip will have lost and existential bet.
Yesterday davutoglu said that they will engage any and all Russian aircraft that ventures into Turkish airspace. Today there was a second incursion. Nothing happened except yet another protest at the Russian Embassy. tayyip is trying to meet Putin. Perhaps he will fare better than Mileikowsky, but he has nothing to bargain with, not even an army which will fight at his command. Let us see him give the order. This is fun to watch.
Ishmael Zechariah
P.s: I hope committee members Kodlu and Kunuri would also comment.

[FB Ali]

I don't think Putin has kicked over a "hornet's nest". I believe it is a well thought out move. He could not afford to let the Syrian regime collapse, which was looking increasingly likely (from external pressure and internal loss of morale and hope). He will not let this escalate into a war with the US.

In the broader picture, both China and Russia are carving out their sphere of the world to withstand the pressure that the US is exerting on both of them. This sphere is likely to be the Eurasian continent (Mackinder's Heartland). What we are seeing now are the battles for control of the fringe countries; as you say this is turning into a Sunni-Shia tussle in the ME, supported respectively by the US and Russia.

My hope that this will not escalate into WW3 (as you fear) lies in Putin. (He plays chess, unlike the bumbling braggarts on the other side).

[FB Ali]

Thank you, Patrick.

Your posts on the situation in the ME are invaluable. Based as they are on your intimate knowledge of the area, and your balanced assessment of the developing situation.

[Babak Makkinejad]

It has been a religious war for a while.

But, I would suggest that it is Protestantism that is on one side of this war and the Catholic and the Orthodox that are on the other side.

[Patrick Bahzad]

You're very welcome. It's a pleasure and an honour to exchange views with you. PB