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18 October 2015


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Sure, there is new sheriff in town, sheriff Vlad, wants all guns to be checked in before going to the salon


So far the new Sheriff is short of guns and deputies.

It's worth speaking this out as clearly as possible: Israel flies into Lebanese airspace, ILLEGALLY. The Lebanese didn't invite or allow them in. They then try to proceed into Syrian airspace, ILLEGALLY, as well, since the Syrians didn't invite or allow them in either.

The news is that for once they can't, because the Russians prevented them from doing so.

The old gang has gotten used to having its way in violation of international law. Just as the Izzies are habitually violating the airspaces of not just one but two neighbouring countries, the US, Turkey, Saudis Arabia and Qatar are all violating, just as habitually, Syrian sovereignty by supplying and aiding proxies in Syria.

Old habits die hard.

Those outraged about this loss of self-assigned hegemonic privilege may get the funny idea that, given that numerically they have the advantage now, they should use the opportunity and strike now before it's too late.

When neo-con lunatics like McCain froth at the mouth and say that the Russians have a long supply line and that they are vulnerable they are saying that if the Russians were attacked now, they could be swept from the skies and seas and Putin would be duly punished for his disobedience and uppitiness.

They are so mad to be serious and thus they need to be watched closely.

There is a price attached to destroying in an act of war aircraft of another superpower engaging in defending an ally. Russia in Syria acts much like the US in eastern Europe - in defence of an allied country.

Putin must have made that crystal clear to the Netanyahoo.

Given their imperviousness, I assume it needs to be beaten into the neocons with a mallet that the childlike delight over destroying Syria and seeing Assad executed is NOT worth giving a shot to nuclear war with a power that has the capability to turn large swaths of the north American continent into glass.

That goes never mind how dear one holds Israel, or how urgently one wants to Freedomize™ Syria irrespective of the large-ish part of the population that supports Assad and, in utter horror at the prospect of becoming another Libya, resists the idea to the death.

Yeah, Right

This makes perfect sense: Russia needs Hezbollah to contribute troops in Syria, and the very last thing that he needs is for Israel to attempt to take advantage of that, ahem, "distraction" by taking a few cheap shots.

Also, of course, it is a given that the IAF can not longer follow their established game-plan of flying into Syrian airspace to take out "arms shipments" destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But the option was still there for the Israelis to attack those convoys once they enter Lebanon.

Putin simply can't allow such mischief, even if the possibility of Israel being that reckless beggars the imagination.

The Israelis aren't stupid. But they are reckless.

alba etie

Will the Russians enforcing an IAF no fly zone over Syria & Lebanon hurt or help a restarting of the peace process and the two state solution end state ?


I hope this report from Ynet is true. If anyone needs to have salt put on his tail it is Netanyahu. If there is further reporting on this claim it will be interesting to see how "Bibi" and his acolytes try to spin it. Prior to this I was him on two cable shows where he made it sound like that he told Putin that he was going to do it his way despite what the Russians wanted. The Russian actions with the ADA systems they sent to Syria tell men otherwise that Netanyahu was lying.

While it would be emotionally satisfying for a couple of IAF aircraft to be shot down over Syrian with Hezbollah capturing the pilots I hope that a rare moment of rationality would overtake the Israel leadership instead of the usual arrogance and stupidity one has become accustomed to and they would dispense with the overflights and worse. They need to get it through their heads that there won't be an Eretz Israel at the expense of Syria.


Isn't it also funny how the usual suspects here who are screaming for the US to impose a no fly zone and have no cooperation with the Russians don't have squat to say about Israel establishing liaison with the Russians? Funny how they are able to separate the two.

Yeah, Right

The article doesn't actually say that there is a no fly zone over Lebanon.

It appears to suggest that the Russians are not challenging IDF flights merely because they are in Lebanese airspace, but only did so when it become obvious that they were transiting through Lebanese airspace on the way towards Syrian airspace.

Which could end up being a distinction without a difference, or not. It all depends on how much the Israelis want to see what they can get away with.

As for it's impact on the "peace process", the answer is surely "none".

After all, that was always nothing but "process", and now it is not even that.


It seems that Netanyahu wanted to test the limits with the Russians. His calculus was two-fold: to see how determined the Russians would be to act, and secondly, I suspect, to make it clear that Israel maintains the "right" to patrol/control the rest of Lebanon's skies.

David Habakkuk


The sheriff is certainly short of guns and deputies, but there are indications that a very clear majority of the British people are falling into line behind him.

A poll in the 'Express' on Tuesday had 71 per cent saying that they 'support Vladimir Putin's bombing campaign in Syria.'

(See http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/611495/Vladimir-Putin-bombing-campaign-poll-support-syria-middle-east .)

I would be interested what the results of parallel poll research has been done elsewhere in Europe, or in the U.S., are -- if such has been done.

Also worth a quick look are the comments, very many of which display an unadulterated contempt for the leaderships of both Britain and the U.S.

Medicine Man

I share their feelings of contempt for western leadership. While there are a lot of tea leaves that are hard to read regarding the Middle East, one calculation that is baby simple is figuring out that Assad's Syria represents no security risk to the western world while the agents of radical jihadi enthusiasm are an amply demonstrated menace. None of the likely reasons why our leaders are incapable or unwilling to grasp this are flattering.

Medicine Man

I hope MartinJ is right and Bibi is just testing the his current range of action. The cynic in me thinks that years of having his balls massaged by our leaders has made Netanyahu a slow learner.



The current societal breakdown going on The Land will have more to do with reaching a comprehensive settlement than the Nouveau Khan's peripheral creative destruction plays. It hurts when you get hit.

It would be wise for the civil authorities of both sides to accept their responsibility for failure, followed by resigning from office and retiring from politics.


cp, well written.

Babak Makkinejad


Russia's Quite Military Revolution (EU Perspective)




I don't know of any poll in the US but here's zerohedge.com mocking CNN's Fareed Zakaria.



I have noticed the comments as well. The telegraph has responded by reducing the number of pieces where comments are available. But if I were a neocon I would be worried about the future.

different clue

alba etie,

If ongoing Russian actions were to humiliate and discredit all flavors of the Revisionist leadership badly enough that the tattered remnants of the Two State Solutionists in Israel could take over the government and wage and win "the moral equivalent of Civil War" against the Revisionists, so that a Two State Solutionist government could take such confidence building measures as legislatively repealing the annexation of East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights . . . and also the gunpoint roundup of all Israeli citizens and settlers living in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Golan Heights and marching them at gunpoint back into Israel Proper . . . then a peace process on Israel's part would look sincere and could lead to a two state solution end state. Otherwise not.

People who have long since stopped doing any hasbara for Israel might be willing to do some hasbara on behalf of an Israel which has irreversibly taken those steps, most pointedly including the roundup and removal of all half a million illegal settlers by any and all means considered necessary and convenient.

J Villain

The Guardian has responded in the same way. I suspect it is bad for business when you your stories are proven to be completely full of ...


Is it possible/likely for Lebanon to directly ask for Russian protection against illegal IAF incursions?

The Twisted Genius


Lebanon can ask for whatever it wants, but Russia does not have to say yes and probably wouldn't want to. When the R+5 eventually focuses on fully securing Damascus and the area south to the Golan, they will not want any Israeli interference. I'm sure they will make that quite clear to the IAF and the IDF as well.

I have not seen the R+5 make any idle or boastful statements. If they say stay out, they mean STAY OUT. I would take that to the bank.


Most interesting read, thanks for sharing.


Two state solution died with Rabin and will never ever ever be revived. Bantustatan is the new model and will remain so until South-Africanization of Tel-Aviv happens.


I agree. pl


From what I read, the Lebanese government is bought and paid for by the KSA. The Shiites have long been afraid to exercise the political power they should per the population figures. It would open the country to even greater punishment by the Zionists. The presidency is deadlocked. Aoun will not get anywhere.

The first great mystery to me was: Why did NATO pull out the Patriot missiles? This implies some co-ordination or foreknowledge of Russia's Syrian Expeditionary Force.

Now, there is a new mystery: Why were F-16's allowed to bomb Aleppo power stations TWICE?
During the Serbian war, the Americans dropped some kind of chaff that shorted the power lines temporarily. Always contrasted that with the Israelis in Lebanon that physicaly destroyed the electric power infrastructure. I guess, further Israelization of the United States. (sigh)

Ken Roberts

Yes, an interesting read. Strange, actually. Hard to believe the author is a European, aware of history. What is the purpose of this document?

Setting aside objectives, is there useful data provided? What about statements re past events (Russian military ineptness in Georgia?), and re programs/intentions (disparity of procurement plans in table towards end)?

different clue


It looks like the people who arranged the Rabin assassination were correct in their guess that only Rabin would have the credibility to keep enough trust from enough Israelis for long enough that they would let him keep taking confidence deepening measures on his side to match the confidence deepening measures taken by Arafat to keep matching and entrenching his own. And they guessed right about Peres too, that he wouldn't move ahead with a snap election based on Rabin's legacy-credibility in order to destroy Revisionist power legally and socially, and continue the Rabinist project. (Ehud Barak had a more grubby and cynical end-goal in mind I think, if his permanent vision was a Palestine under control of Israel and divided into three watertight bulkheads by thin Israeli "security lines".)

So, yes . . . in the real world, it looks like the Revisionists have won. But what have they won? How long will Israel keep flunking its Darwin Finals before it flunks the very last one?

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