Sic Semper Tyrannis

On Israeli nukes (by CP)

A member of the comitee recently expressed doubt that Israel has joined the 'thermonuclear club'. That is an interesting question in its own right, with a clear (yes or no) albeit sadly secret  answer.

The official Israeli position is still to never confirm or deny their possession, which they call amimut, meaning opacity or ambiguity, and that Israel would not be the first country to introduce Nuclear Weapons to the Middle East. Israel is, despite all that opacity, generally presumed to have at least A-Bombs, fission weapons. It is known that they received French help in gaining nuclear capability. It was Mordechai Vanunu who made Israel's nuclear weapons program public. Certainly, Israel's security apparat has not forgiven Vanunu for fouling the nest (and converting to Christianity as if to add insult to injury from their PoV) and they will contuinue to silence him.

Wall of silence

Years back I had a peculiar exchange in a conversation with a Jewish Republican who scolded me for having referreded casually to Israel's nuclear weapons - these things should not be spoken of lest Israel's enemies learn of it! As if they needed me. While that admonition was hilariously absurd, it illustrates well the reality that politics have made US officialdom go to absurd lengths to not having to speak of the unspeakable - Israeli nuclear weapons:

"When the Senate Foreign Relations Committee published a 2008 report titled “Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East,” it included chapters on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey—but not Israel. The 61-page report relegated Israel’s nuclear arms to a footnote that suggested that Israel’s arsenal was a “perception.”

“This report does not take a position on the existence of Israeli nuclear weapons,” the report said. “Although Israel has not officially acknowledged it possesses nuclear weapons, a widespread consensus exists in the region and among experts in the United States that Israel possesses a number of nuclear weapons. For Israel’s neighbors, this perception is more important than reality.”

No there there? I beg to differ. It may be just me nitpicking, but I doubt even the wogs are so dumb they can be held at bay with rumours (irony alert), and that the Israelis, believers in hard power that they are, would want to rely on 'perception'.

The Symington amendment

US law (the Symington amendment of the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act) bars the US from giving aid to nations that engage in clandestine nuclear weapons proliferation. For many years, the US chose, under the influence of the pro-Israeli lobby, to ignore the law in how it was applied to Israel. The way to do so was to avoid, supress or dilute any public statement on Israel's nuclear weapons arsenal - and to punish offenders.

If Israel's nuclear arsenal was publicly acknowledged by the US, they would have to apply the Symington amendment and that would cut off all aid to Israel, and sever ties of technological cooperation. Because that must not be, Israel only 'appears to have nuclear weapons'.

Numbers

A little circumspect, the CIA stated in the declassified Special National Intelligence Estimate 4-1-74 in 2008: “We believe that Israel already has produced and stockpiled a small number of fission weapons.” A little less circumspect, the DIA in 1999 asssessed Israel's current arsenal at 60-80 warheads (projecting it to 65-85 by 2020).

In the 2009 CSIS study "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities" (pdf) Anthony Cordesman conservatively used the lower DIA numbers of 60-80 Israeli nuclear weapons. His section on Israeli nukes offers the following (and IMO most complete and non-circumspect publicly available) summary on p.9:

"Estimates of numbers and types of weapons differ sharply.

♦ No agreement exists over the plutonium output from the reactor at Dimona. Which is reported at power outputs from 75-200 megawatts. Satellite photos indicate that output is more likely to be below 140 megawatts.
♦ Stockpile of at least 60-80 plutonium weapons.
♦ May have well over 100 nuclear weapons assemblies, with some weapons with yields over 100 kilotons.
♦ U.S. experts believe Israel has highly advanced implosion weapons. Known to have produced Lithium-6, allowing production of both tritium and lithium deuteride at Dimona. Facility no longer believed to be operating.
♦ Some weapons may be ER variants or have variable yields.
♦ Stockpile of up to 300-400 weapons is possible. Lower limit could be 70-100.
♦ There exists a possibility that Israel may have developed thermonuclear warheads."

Open Thread - 4 October 2015

 

pl

"Syria: Air Duel between SU-30 Russian Sukhoi SM and Israeli F-15" Really?

Original article link

https://strategika51.wordpress.com/2015/10/02/syrie-duel-aerien-entre-des-sukhoi-su-30-sm-russes-et-des-f-15-israeliens/

Google translated version:

"Syria: Air Duel between SU-30 Russian Sukhoi SM and Israeli F-15 Issued on October 2, 2015 by Strategika51 Standard EXCLUSIVE-Strategika 51: Six Russian multirole fighter Sukhoi SU-30 SM type have put to flight-type Israeli fighters McDonnell Douglas F-15 off the Syrian coast. Israeli aircraft flying for months Syrian airspace and especially Naval Air Station Latakia bridgehead of Russian forces in Syria. Israeli aircraft generally follow a fairly complex flight plan and approach Latakia from the sea In the night of 1 to 2 October 2015, six Russian Sukhoi SU-30 took off from SM Syrian airbase Hmimim towards Cyprus before intercepting position attack four Israeli F-15 fighters. Surprised by a situation as unexpected and probably not prepared for a dogfight with one of the best Russian multirole fighter, Israeli pilots have quickly turned back to the south, flying at high speed Lebanon."

The Lebanese army has officially announced at Z 2313 (local time) that four "enemy aircraft" (Israeli) had crossed the Lebanese airspace.

This "incident" between Russian and Israeli warplanes struck stupor command of the Israeli Air Force, which held that a possible air battle between the Israeli F-15 and the Russian Su-30 would have led to the destruction of four Israeli aircraft. Israel has strongly protested to Moscow this incident but the Russians demanded an explanation for the presence of Israeli fighter planes full Syrian airspace. This incident indicates that the protection of Syrian airspace is now under the protection of the Russian air force. Causing gnashing of teeth in Washington. The incident was ignored by the major news agencies but political and media relay of Israel in the United States, Europe and the Arab world will strengthen efforts to demonize Russian support to the Syrian government."  Beyond Outrage

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Dunno, it sounds interesting.  If this is so, did the IAF intend to attack the Russian base?  Is Bibi really this blindly arrogant and stupid?  Did Washington greenlight this?

BTW are there Chinese ships in the area?  pl

"Buck" Clinton & pals want to fight Russia?

 "In breaking with the White House by calling for military action to protect civilians in Syria, former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton is siding with at least two of her Republican opponents in the 2016 presidential election.

Clinton adopted the opposite position from the White House she used to serve on Thursday by advocating additional international air power to protect civilians in the multi-front war.

“I personally would be advocating now for a no-fly zone and humanitarian corridors to try to stop the carnage on the ground and from the air,” the Democratic presidential hopeful said in an interview.

That puts her in the same camp as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and fellow Republican Ohio Gov. John Kasich." Washpost

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/02/in-break-with-white-house-clinton-advocates-syria-no-fly-zone/

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All of these clowns want the no-fly zone to apply to the Russians.

Yes, pilgrims, the time has come to search the internet for old movies from the days of my youth:

- "Fail Safe"

- "On the Beach"

- Doctor Strangelove"

In the bad old days of overhanging threats of thermonuclear war with the USSR, there sprang up a whole genre of end of everything themed films and books intended to illustrate for the ignorant how the world might end in flashes of searing light and roaring blast. 

Guess what!  The Russian Federation has much the same destructive capacity as did the USSR. 

For this reason it is unthinkable that the US and Russia should fight each other, ever, ever, ever.

Nevertheless, Clinton, Fiorina, Bush and now Kasich have all endorsed the idea of forbidding Russian use of air space and operations in Syria and a willingness to fight the Russians to enforce such a thing.

Does it require a great intellect to understand that engagements between two thermonuclear powers are likely to lead to escalation ending in a nuclear exchange? 

As Buck Turgidson said in Stangelove "I guarantee not more than 15 or 20 million dead (on our side)."

Folks, there is nothing in Syria worth the risk of nuclear war.  pl

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"... in recent months, the Israeli government and its American neoconservative allies have been floating trial balloons regarding whether Al Qaeda could be repackaged as Sunni "moderates" and become a de facto U.S. ally in achieving a "regime change" in Syria, ousting President Bashar al-Assad who has been near the top of the Israeli/neocon hit list for years.

A key neocon propaganda theme has been to spin the conspiracy theory that Assad and the Islamic State are somehow in cahoots and thus Al Qaeda represents the lesser evil. Though there is no evidence to support this conspiracy theory, it was even raised by Charlie Rose in his "60 Minutes" interview last Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The reality is that the Islamic State and Al Qaeda have both been leading the fight to destroy the secular Assad government, which has fought back against both groups.

And, if these two leading terror groups saw a chance to raise their black flags over Damascus, they might well mend their tactical rifts. They would have much to gain by overthrowing Assad's regime, which is the principal protector of Syria's Christians, Alawites, Shiites and other "heretics.""  Russian Peacekeeper

http://peacekeeper.ru/en/?module=news&action=view&id=27655

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Both Israel and the Saudis have been "gunning" for the Syrian government for a long time, the Israelis because they are focused on Syria as Hizbullah's ally and the Saudis as part of their long term project (mashrou')  to re-establish Sunni, Wahhabi rule in the Levant (Syria and Lebanon).  pl

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"If Israel respects other players’ red lines, it will only retain a small area near Damascus and near the Lebanese border if it plans to block weapons smuggling to Hezbollah. Haaretz 

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.678516

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Yup.  How sad that would be (irony alert)  There are now reports that a couple of  Israeli F-15s were run out of Syrian air space yesterday by the Russian air force.   It would be typical of Bibi that after having been warned off by Putin he wants to test the limits.  He said he would not accept limits to the grandeur and power of Israel.  pl

 

Roseburg

I've been there.  Nice little place.

The same questions arise.  Where did he get the guns?  How did he get the guns?  Were they bought from FFL holder dealers and were background checks conducted?  Let us remember that the level of homicide employing guns has been steadily falling in the US for the last 25 years.   The people doing the mass killings are insane.  Did this man have a criminal or mental health record? 

Why do we want to keep the right to own and bear arms without the government knowing who has them and where they are?  Read what Madison wrote of that? 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2012/12/madison-federal.html

"Netanyahu 2015 address to the UN General Assembly" Times of Israel

 

"Israel is uniquely poised to seize the promise of the 21st century. Israel is a world leader in science and technology, in cyber, software, water, agriculture, medicine, biotechnology and so many other fields that are being revolutionized by Israeli ingenuity and Israeli innovation. Israel is the innovation nation.

Israeli knowhow is everywhere. It’s in your computers’ microprocessors and flash drives. It’s in your smartphones, when you send instant messages and navigate your cars. It’s on your farms, when you drip irrigate your crops and keep your grains and produce fresh. It’s in your universities, when you study Nobel Prize winning discoveries in chemistry and economics. It’s in your medicine cabinets, when you use drugs to treat Parkinson’s Disease and Multiple Sclerosis. It’s even on your plate, when you eat the delicious cherry tomato. That too was perfected in Israel, in case you didn’t know.

We are so proud in Israel of the long strides our country has made in a short time. We’re so proud that our small country is making such a huge contribution to the entire world. Yet the dreams of our people, enshrined for eternity by the great prophets of the Bible, those dreams will be fully realized only when there is peace."  Natanyahu at UN 2015

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Well, there you have it, pilgrims, Israel is "the innovation nation."

Who knew?

Sarcasm aside, Bibi, IMO is once again revealed  as an arrogant hyper-nationalist racist.  His absurd performance in "staring down" the UN General Assembly on behalf of Israel is so silly as to threaten any serious consideration of Israel while he is around.

The same fool is pursuing a policy in Syria and with regard to Iran that mutilates the process of information and news distribution of news through his agents in the media.

He is the principal encourager of anti-Semitism in the world through his grotesque statements and actions..  pl 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-netanyahu-2015-address-to-the-un-general-assembly/

SHORT AND SHARP: Which groups did the Russians target in Syria ?

By Patrick Bahzad

If you read this morning's newspapers about the latest events in Syria, you might think the Russian army has marched into Damascus. Not only that, but the baseline in the mainstream media is strikingly the same: the Russians have not attacked ISIS, contrary to what they had stated previously, but they have instead targeted "moderate" Syrian rebels, armed and supported by the West. This obviously implies that the Russians are not actually after ISIS, but aim at bolstering Assad's grip on power. While the long term implications of yesterday's airstrikes are unclear, as far as the Russian strategy and goals are concerned, one thing is certain: the narrative about the "moderate" rebels is a fairytale that should be seen for what it is, a PR-stunt that hides a much murkier and unsavoury truth.

The first Russian airstrikes in Syria were carried out by Su-24 and Su-25 jets which took off from Al-Assad airbase in Jableh, 20 miles South of Latakia. They targeted three locations, in three consecutive waves: 1. the area South-West of Idlib (Ghnam/Dayr Hanna), on the frontline between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and various rebel groups  2. the rebel controled area North of Hama (Latamneh/Kafr Zita) and 3. the rebel enclave North of Homs (Talbisah/Rastan and Zafaraneh).

Targets and objectives

Footage of the airstrikes, released by the Russian Ministry of Defence, as well as videos posted on social media by the rebels, show that the Russian aircraft didn't use high precision guided weapons, but laser guided bunker busters, Glonass (Russian GPS) guided bombs and electro-optical TV-guided bombs. The success or failure of the Russian "sorties" cannot be assessed based on this footage and news about casualties or collateral damage should be taken with caution, as a first series of pictures allegedly depicting civilian victims was already debunked as a fraud.

Linda Lau on the state of Palestinian affairs

October 1, 2015

 

 Yesterday Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas gave his annual speech before the UN General Assembly. It was rumored in advance that he would have a big announcement to make.  What he said was that the Palestinians would no longer abide by the 1993 Oslo Accords since Israel was not living up to the agreement. It was ostensibly a major announcement since the agreement involved security cooperation, collection of taxes and other areas. However, he did not present any sort of plan to back up his statement. Immediately after his speech, the Palestinians saw their flag raised at the UN rose garden alongside the 193 other countries of the world. Since the PA was granted observer status by a UN resolution, it was entitled to have its flag flown. Also, since 2012 the PA had been working diligently to gain membership in various UN organizations such as the International Criminal Court. The Vatican has recognized a Palestinian state and several European parliaments have passed resolutions just short of this.

 

The reality, though, is different. The world has turned its attention to other conflicts in the Middle East such as Syria and Yemen and has pretty much forgotten the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  Some analysts even argue that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu  for example, has still come out of the Iranian nuclear deal with half of what he wanted – he is no longer under any pressure to resume negotiations with the Palestinians since he has created Iran as a huge threat for the world to concentrate on.

 

US Secretary of State said weakly yesterday that he still believes a two state solution was possible. An Israeli scholar Meron Benvenisti, back in the 1970’s and early 1980’s had an imaginary clock that he set to reflect the possibility of a two state solution. I don’t recall that he moved it to exactly midnight but certainly very close. This was at a time when Jerusalem was governed as a united city, admittedly by an Israeli mayor. Palestinians still held most of their land in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank although the settlements were expanding. Israel largely governed through Palestinian mayors of the various municipalities. Conditions were far from perfect and Israeli governance was onerous. But, in 1993 came the Oslo Accords. Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and PLO leader Yasir Arafat shook hands in the Rose Garden of the White House with a beaming President Clinton looking on. The Accords would have made a viable, though not ideal, solution for a Palestinian state. Shortly thereafter, Prime Minister Rabin was assassinated. No other Israeli prime minister since that time has had the will or the power to carry out the accords. Some steps have been taken in terms of security cooperation, but the Israelis have ignored even this whenever they chose to.

 

The Palestinians for their part have never gotten past the Arafat generation. Abbas learned his skills at the side of Arafat and those skills did not involve being the president of something like the PA which is supposed to become a country.  His main focus is ensuring the continuation of his leadership regardless of the numerous ministries and organizations that have been created.  Since he is 80 years old, there is talk of a successor. However, there is little hope of one emerging under current circumstances. There is a critical need for fresh ideas and new ways of governing, but without a chance to develop whether from civil society or charitable organizations (like the one founded by Salam Fayyad that Abbas shut down) or some other venue, there will be serious infighting and a continuation of the same style of leadership.

 

 I believe that the clock is well past midnight in terms of allowing for a two state solution. The settlements are too large and too numerous. Infrastructure has been built that benefits only the settlers and the Palestinians are not even allowed to have access. Much Palestinian land in East Jerusalem has been confiscated and Israeli apartment buildings erected. The economy in the West Bank and Gaza has been nearly destroyed by the lack of ability to move goods and people across borders. Israel uses the tax revenues it collects to parcel out slowly, often for what it sees as good behavior and holds the PA responsible. The economy is seriously damaged.

 

So, the talk of negotiations for a two state solution simply allows Israel to  create more “facts on the ground and the world stands by and doesn’t watch.   

 

Habakkuk on Obama's abuse of language.

 

I think that Colonel Lang and Patrick Bahzad have made the relevant technical points. There is also a rather different issue, to which these technical questions are relevant. What Obama said, in his attempts to argue against Putin, was that: 'In accordance with this logic, we should support tyrants like Bashar al-Assad, who drops barrel bombs to massacre innocent children, because the alternative is surely worse.' Taken literally, the grammar of this sentence suggests that Assad drops barrel bombs with the intention to 'massacre innocent children.' So, one might imagine Assad presiding over a meeting – rather like those in which Obama apparently picks targets for drone strikes.  Only, taking Obama literally, Assad picks out schools and orphanages. Of course, one can't take Obama literally.  But that is part of the corruption.  He starts with the – clear – fact that these bombing attacks do kill children.  From this – displaying a combination of military illiteracy and sleazy sentimentality – he passes to the suggestion that there is something uniquely evil about these attacks.  And from this, he moves to the suggestion that somehow killing children is their objective. At this point, the evidence seems to me to be moving from the interpretation according to which Obama is 'just a prat', to that in which he is actively evil. As to the British angle to this, there was, of course, a man called 'Bomber' Harris. At the time, and subsequently, there have been all kinds of arguments about the British – and American – bombing of Germany.  Many of the issues involved are quite complex – and are also part of my own family history, in complicated ways. On the one hand, I am not prepared to see either Harris, or Churchill, or Lindemann, as simple figures of evil. But when I read any British politician, or journalist, treat the use of 'barrel bombs' by the Syrian 'regime' as an indication that Assad and his associates are simply figures of evil, I really get close to wanting to vomit. And, incidentally, if any Americans tell you that, by contrast to British night bombing, their own efforts in the daylight were purely directed at surgically effective attacks on purely military targets, I would reach for the salt cellar.  A 'pinch' really is not enough. On the political effects of the corruption of language, incidentally, one of the classic writers is the great Viennese Jewish satirist Karl Kraus, whose whole-heartedly repudiation of the mentalities that led to the carnage of the First World War seems to me highly relevant to current issues.