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03 October 2015

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turcopolier

b et al

It seems to me that if something resembling this reported incident took place it was probably an Israeli operation designed to stimulate Russian electronic equipment for ELINT collection purposes. pl

Will

i posted this on another thread. the Russian Admiral Kuznetsov ship and Chinese Liaoning are sister ships with the same distinctive ski takeoff nose. The Kuznetov is off Syria, the other ship is in China. I think this is the source of the confusion. Additionally, the Kuznetsov is not classified as a carrier to evade the tonnage rules regarding Bospurus passage. And it has a different mission.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaoning
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuznetsov-class_aircraft_carrier

burton50

This story has also appeared on Russian sites, referring to a Lebanese newspaper account: "The Lebanese newspaper “Ad-Diiar” confirms that 6 Su-35s of the Russian air force, flying out of the Hamim air base near the city of Latakia in the direction of Cyprus, unexpectedly encountered a foursome of Israeli F-15s, which were surveilling the deployment of Russian troops in Latakia and the off-loading of armaments. According to the newspaper, after the Russian planes activated their armaments, the Israeli planes retired. At this moment, the information has not been confirmed by other sources. We recall that, during the Moscow visit of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of September, both parties agreed on the coordination of (their) activities in the skies over Syria in order to avoid misunderstandings. On 30 September, Russia informed the Israelis about strikes against targets in Syria an hour before the attacks."
http://newsru.co.il/mideast/02oct2015/leb301.html
The Russian version has a link to the Lebanese article, but since I don't read Arabic, I'm at a loss here.

jo6pac

In French, interesting if true. I can't afford stratfro ship info.

https://strategika51.wordpress.com/2015/10/04/syrie-un-sous-marin-chinois-dattaque-a-propulsion-nucleaire-a-tartous/

Tyler

I think its also interesting that the Russians are reporting that the US airstrikes "never happened", which would make sense based off of previous reports of planes returning to base with full ordnance and the fact Raqqa is still standing and not a smoking hole in the ground.

Also this is amusing for Reasons:

http://www.rt.com/politics/317393-this-will-be-holiday-kadyrov/

Valissa

Putin Hints Russia Will Clip Israel’s Wings Over Syrian Skies http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.678097
Russian President Vladimir Putin told U.S. President Barack Obama, during their one-on-one meeting in New York early Tuesday, that he was concerned about the Israeli attacks in Syria. He was apparently not referring to the Israeli missiles in the Golan Heights, fired earlier in the week at two artillery positions of the Syrian army in the wake of stray fire into Israeli territory from battles between the rebels and the Syrian army.

Rather, Putin’s statement was more general, referring to over 10 strikes in Syrian territory that have been attributed to Israel over the past two and a half years.

It showed that despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Putin in Moscow last week, Russia intends to create new facts on the ground in Syria that will include restricting Israel’s freedom of movement in Syrian skies.

Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said Tuesday that Israel does not coordinate its actions in the north with Russia. “We have interests, and when they are threatened we act and we will continue to act, and that was also made clear to the president of Russia. We have no intention of giving up our ability to protect our interests and I advise that we not be tested,” Ya’alon said, adding, “We will continue to defend our red lines.”
---------------

There appears to be a bit of a dominance dance going on between Russia and Israel. While Israel is no doubt aware they can't win such a game, they are not willing to lay on the ground with their belly up either.

Will

There's a piece of the puzzle that hadn't been addressed so far. It had been previously been pointed out on this forum that the Nato Patriot missiles in Turkey had a lot to do with the Jihadists gaining control of the Syrian-Turkish borders. Their radars would paint the Syrian Air Force and kept it away from the border.

But, BEFORE the Russian Expeditionary Force arrived, these Patriot systems were removed. Is all this fussing and complaining about the Russians in Syria some Kabuki theater?

b

There are two (maybe more) Russian planes in Syria I forgot to mention - Il-20 the equivalent of the RC-135. They were photographed flying over Syria. They carry visual/IR reconnaissance as well as Elint and ECM stuff. They seem to be stationed in Damascus or elsewhere, not in Latakia.

Maybe the Israelis wanted to check out these and/or other radar stuff, but I am certain that the Russian equipment has various "modes" and that knowing one mode caught during one penetration flight may not help much with the next.

A U.S. Defense Science Board report recently touched on that problem

"21st Century Military Operations in a Complex Electromagnetic Environment"

http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/DSB_SS13--EW_Study.pdf

franjo

Syria Update# Air Duel between the Sukhoi Su - 30 Russian SM and Israeli F-15

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=53f_1443836190

Bill Herschel

What was I thinking? The future is now.

Fiorina says she is a great friend of Bibi's and the United States should engage Russian fighters over Syria and drive them out. In other words, Bibi says US fighters should take on the Russian fighters in Syria.

The trees are the SU-30's, but the forest is the fact that for many decades Israel has taken the position it can bomb anyone anytime in the Middle East, up to and including the USS Liberty.

Now, it cannot, at least in Syria. That is a seismic shift. "...but the Russians demanded an explanation for the presence of Israeli fighter planes in full Syrian airspace."

I am impressed that the Russians choose their words very, very carefully. And if any part of the story reads true, it is that part.

Tyler

Will,

Apologies, but I can't tell who you think had the edge in the encounter.

Seamus Padraig

Nice one!

Seamus Padraig

That's been my theory since the war began. In 2011, Assad was approached by KSA and Qatar, and they tried to get him to switch sides and build their pipeline instead the one from Iran. He said no, and the 'Arab Spring' erupted a few months later.

turcopolier

Seamus Padraig

Absolute crap! I know all these people. This is not about economic determinism. pl

gemini33

McClatchy:
"Turkish defense radar locked on Russian fighter as it bombed Syrian town"

--Highlights:
Turkey treats as threatening any aircraft within 5 miles of border
Officials: Turkey would have attacked had jet crossed border
Incident a reminder that risk is high of a potential unintended confrontation

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article37739349.html#storylink=cpy

Fred

Robt,

Do we even have an OODA loop at the White House. They seem completely reactive. I suspect from the Russian actions they have been planning this operation for a long time.

Fred

jo6pac,

"... and some analysts in the region are asking how is it that twelve armed submarine ballistic missiles (SLMB) JL-2 ... was not detected before by the plethora of satellites,"

Either it was and not mentioned or it took the submerged route through the Straits of Gibraltar and not the Suez Canal.

gemini33

About the McClatchy article:

By my count, 6 of 18 paragraphs in the article are about Russia hitting or coming close to hitting hospitals. The first mention of hospitals says that Doctors Without Borders operates a tent camp / hospital in Al Yamdiyyah and the Russian air strike struck just outside the "border", presumably the border of this town.

"Dr. Jawad Abu Hatab, a heart surgeon at the Al Yamdiyyah hospital [same hospital as the Doctors Without Borders hospital?], claimed in a statement distributed by the Syrian Opposition Coalition... that he believed the hospital had been the target of the airstrike."
...
"He said several medical staff had been wounded on Thursday in raids on Latamneh, which had been bombed on three successive days."
...
"Russian aircraft also have bombed a medical facility run by a Western-supported aid group, the “White Helmets” at Ihsim in Idlib province."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article37739349.html

This story is looking a bit more fishy to me now. Plus there's an anonymous US military official claiming Russia actually violated Turkey's border because Turkey claims 5 miles into Syria as a buffer zone. Turkish official "said he could not confirm that account."

Will

my bad, the russian ship is not the Kuznetsov but the cruiser Moskva

alba etie

Will
I am wondering the same thing - is thisumbrage by BHO about Russian intervention Kabuki theater ? I have no idea but one way to think about this might be what the BHO administration has actually done in Syria in the context of some behind the scenes fracas between the NeoCons & the Pragmatist . My hope is that the Pragmatist such as Secretary of State Kerry will win out over the NeoCons such as UN Ambassador Samantha Powers. I still believe that behind the scenes that the Pragmatist went to the Congress Critters to ask for the AUMF to bomb Assad over the CW knowing it would fail . The Pragmatist then took the off ramp that Russia offered up and with the help of the Chinese navy convoyed the CW out of Syria. I also believe that the Pragmatist are pushing back against the NeoCon Liver Eaters state sponsors wherever they can - that is why IMO there has been no Turkish enforced no fly zone in Syria . And the way I read the map the defacto Russian No Fly Zone will also protect the Kurdish fighters that are fighting ISIL - say around Kobani . Yes this could be kabuki theater aimed at at least blunting the worst of the neocon agenda .

b

The Russians have a new toy on the ground.

Today a Krasukha-4 system was seen near the Russian airbase in Syria
https://twitter.com/KURYERSAT/status/650945667729354752

That is a brand new system designed to defeat AWACS, satellite radar and other radar and electronics up to 300km out.

That Russia lets these pictures out is, of course, a warning. "Look here. Don't even think of it .."

But I really wonder what they are not letting out. They surely would have some additional surprises for anyone trying to visit them.

turcopolier

b

The presence of this high powered jamming system indicates to me a Russian intention to defend their presence in Syria against all comers and against satellite born surveillance or weapons as well. They are serious. pl

Tyler

Gemini,

FWIW the White Helmets (a Soros funded front group) incident was memory holed when the Russians pointed out that the time the so called casualties occurred was five minutes before the sortie launched.

different clue

eakens,

Chinese cherry tomatoes?

different clue

alba etie

If this is so, that makes me think better of Obama in this one particular limited area.

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