Open Thread - 31 October 2015

Well, pilgrims, I take note of the correctness of TTG's statement that some of the strategery announced by Ash Carter sounds a lot like things that emerged from our last War Game.  i.e., a joint UW task force headquartered near Irbil, enhanced help for Jordan in defending its open border with Iraq against IS, etc.  pl

Comments

[BabelFish]

I continue to study the various blogs/news feeds I follow for reporting on the South China Sea and other Asian Rim tensions, working on another Ocean Tracks entry. My working title for that is "One Day, This Sh*t Is Going To Get Real".

As I learn from all of you regarding the MENA/Ukraine situations and the careful thought you all display on analyzing the goings on, I'm trying to apply that to this theater and the analogy for me is the ugly beginning to a really bad thundershower that you can see on the horizon.

[AEL]

Eventful day. Israel bombs near Damascus http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4718802,00.html and ISIS takes credit for downing Russian airliner http://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-state-in-egypt-claims-it-brought-down-russian-plane/

[ex-PFC Chuck]

ISIS is taking credit for the downing of the Russian airliner en route from Egypt to St. Petersburg. There were no survivors and 200+ killed. AFIK there has been no official preliminary explanation of the cause.

[turcopolier]

All

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.683394 The Beebster is testing the limits and having a frisson leading to Borgasm if he can get away with it.
Next move to the Rooshans. pl

[oofda]

However the airline company that operated the crashed flight had issues in the past. Think the "Baby-Flots" of the 90's. According to the Guardian, there were engine issues that required work prior to the flight's leaving Sharm el-Sheikh. Also the plane was old, having entered service in 1977.

From the Guardian:Crew members of the crashed airliner raised the issue of possible engine faults several times to airport technicians in Sharm el-Sheikh, a source at the airport has alleged in an interview with Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

“This aircraft appealed to the technical service in connection with engine start failure several times over the past week before this happened,” the source said.

In Moscow MP Vladimir Gutenev has told state news agency TASS he will seek to ban the use of planes that are more than 15 years old

[Trey N]

Interesting timing: IAF raids in Syria + Russian airliner crash in Sinai = pure coincidence ???

Russian airliner was cruising at 31,000 and is said to have reported technical problems and asked for clearance to land at Cairo. Altitude way too high for MANPADS. Is this really an accident, with ISIS falsely claiming credit -- or was a bomb placed aboard the plane ?

Black boxes have been recovered. I'll be that Russia has this figured out and reported to the world waaaay faster than the still-unsolved MH-17 "mystery crash."

[BostonB]

Any CIA/State Dept. officers involved in the movement of MANPAD weapons to the jihadis and rebels is an accessory to the murder of these 200 civilians.

I have a new hero in the U.S. Congress. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) is a member of the Armed Services Committee.. She's an Iraq combat veteran (two tours) and is a Major in the Hawaii Army National Guard. Congress members like Gabbard give me hope.

Here's a YouTube clip of her with Wolf Blitzer on CNN:

CIA Must Stop Illegal, Counterproductive War to Overthrow Assad
Tulsi Gabbard
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u7Q8X60KQ9Q

[BostonB]

Trenches, tactics help rebels survive Syria onslaught
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-mideast-crisis-syria-assessment-idUSKCN0SO1R720151030

James Clapper says Putin winging it in Syria
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/foreign/30-Oct-2015/top-us-official-says-putin-winging-it-in-syria

[turcopolier]

Boston B

Clapper is an ass-kissing dummy. He always was. pl

[William R. Cumming]

Hoping you would agree with my opinion that US strategy [if there was one?] has largely failed in the Ukraine and MENA?

[William R. Cumming]

Could some explain to me how the Thump and the Doc understand how US FP [foreign Policy] relates to domestic policy?

[Odin's Raven]

It seems that the Syrians are receiving a little more help from their friends:
http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/russian-elite-units-in-zabadani-homs.html

[Ryan]

I think this post on a Yahoo news thread is noteworthy:

Just trying to keep my scorecard straight. Let’s see. The Americans are using a Turkish airbase to bomb ISIS and protect our allies the Kurds.
The Turks are bombing our allies the Kurds while we are using their airbase.
The Americans are supplying human shields for terrorist in Syria who are being bombed by the Russians.
On the Iraqi side, American air power is being used to protect and support the new Iranian puppet regime in Iraq installed by the Americans after the gulf war.
The Mahdi army that we fought in Sadr City are now advanced element of the Iraqi army we are protecting.
Officers of “the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism” the Iranians are standing next to Iraqi officers who are standing next to American officers all cooperating to kill ISIS soldiers who have been receiving weapons from Americans through American proxies we consider”moderate rebels”.
Meanwhile, our “enemies” the Iranians are supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen while our “allies” the people who destroyed the trade centers have involved the U.S. in yet another unauthorized war by aggressively attacking the houthis who were helping the U. S. fight Al Queda in Yemen before .
In the meanwhile “moderate rebels” are undoubtedly being furnish weapons capable of bringing down Russian war planes. So while Russia is bombing ISIS, we are encouraging our proxies to shoot down their planes.
Will someone tell me whose side we are on today?
========

Not bad at all, especially compared to the BS one finds on cable tv.

[sl]

Or cyberwarefare?

[Odin's Raven]

Another aspect of the middle eastern mess seems to be conflict over control of drug manufacturing and distribution networks, especially for the Saudis.
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=236465&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=28&s1=1

[LeaNder]

vaguely a welcome topic, BF.

considering my initial surprise on the larger US foreign policy ground, I only got glimpses of. But for whatever reason they remained on one of my synapses. ;)

[BabelFish]

I certainly do! Both that past Secure The Oil, there has been no strategy since before Desert Storm and that what ever the Pre-Borg and now the full developed Borg have been thinking, the result has put the Titanic in the shade.

[BabelFish]

LeaNder,

As near as the US has gotten to a confrontation with Russia, the prospect of having a serious military confrontation with China, in China's front yard (so to speak) continues to astound me. Given the amount of mostly one way trade they have with the US and how much of our debt they own, it beggars belief that we would trade blows with them.

I truly believe the Japanese are seriously upset they did not put themselves in a stronger military position in the past decades and are in a rush to create naval assets to push back on the Chinese. It appears that as many as 80% of US naval assets will be Pacific based in the coming years. And, our Marines are working hard to create effective capabilities in amphibious/air assault. The fact that the Marine version of the F-35 has been a large source of difficult for that program is a sign how seriously the capability it will be bring is valued.

[Jack]

All Blacks crushing Wallabies.

[Will]

just don't know how i come across this stuff, had never heard of it before. the kingom of Ebla, close to Idlib and Aleppo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebla

"Ebla (Arabic: إبلا‎, modern: تل مرديخ, Tell Mardikh), was one of the earliest kingdoms in Syria. Its remains constitute a tell located about 55 km (34 mi) southwest of Aleppo near the village of Mardikh. Ebla was an important center throughout the third millennium BC and in the first half of the second millennium BC. Its discovery proved the Levant was a center of ancient, centralized civilization equal to Egypt and Mesopotamia, and ruled out the view that the latter two were the only important centers in the Near East during the early Bronze Age. Karl Moore described the first Eblaite kingdom as the first recorded world power.[1]"

[BabelFish]

What I can read states the plane was at 31,000 feet when what ever happened took place. If so, the reasons I can think of are: 1) aircraft failure (including engines), 2) explosive device on board, either preinstalled or with a suicide passenger, 3) a SAM. The altitude precludes a 'Stinger' type of MANPADS as the topmost range for those types of weapons are usually stated to be about 16,000 feet. I've included a Wiki link that takes about all the different MAENADS in a table and don't want to get into the difference between 'slant range' versus max effective altitude for usage. I've read a quote that the plane was in service since 1977 (Airbus A300?) and had recent service issues with its engines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger

[Tyler]

Lmbo here at the gym while Fox News declares the Russians have found it tougher than expected because, it seems, they haven't won't the war yet.

Idiots. The same people who think inside every Middle Easterner is an Ohio Den/Repub ready to cheer for secular Western hedonism. I hate these idiots.

[turcopolier]

Tyler

How about the FL? Yup, idiots lost in a haze of supposed machismo. They would all pee in their pants at the sound of the first round. pl

[Fred]

Col.,

In regards to the IAFAF is Bibi trying to keep open an LOC to al-Nursa as it appears that area was on their supply line as far back to wary operations there in '13? This sends the clear message that Israel is on the jihadi side in this one, which seems a rather stupid position to continue given the RF's stated position and; to use one of Israel's favorite phrases, "the facts on the ground".

[Laguerre]

The Russian plane was made in 1997, not 1977. And was an A321-200.