Musings on Turkey (by CP)

 

I have been pondering about Turkey for a while, and this post is part one of a small series of posts on the subject. What struck me is frankly how agressive Turkey has acted in pursuit of their policies vis a vis Syria. Erdoğan repeatedly tried to force, co-opt and when that failed, to actively sabotage US policy in Syria. He tried to force the hand of the Europeans as well.

♦ Fool me once [Ghouta chemical weapons incident]

The first attempt was apparently when they tried to coax the US into intervening in Syria, by making sure that Obama's foolishly uttered red line - non-use of chemical weapons would be met. In business, they call it rainmaking. It is very probable, as reporting by Seymour Hersh suggests, that the Ghouta incident happened with a Turkish helping hand.

„An American foreign policy expert who speaks regularly with officials in Washington and Ankara told me about a working dinner Obama held for Erdoğan during his May visit. The meal was dominated by the Turks’ insistence that Syria had crossed the red line and their complaints that Obama was reluctant to do anything about it. Obama was accompanied by John Kerry and Tom Donilon, the national security adviser who would soon leave the job. Erdoğan was joined by Ahmet Davutoğlu, Turkey’s foreign minister, and Hakan Fidan, the head of the MIT. Fidan is known to be fiercely loyal to Erdoğan, and has been seen as a consistent backer of the radical rebel opposition in Syria.

The foreign policy expert told me that the account he heard originated with Donilon. (It was later corroborated by a former US official, who learned of it from a senior Turkish diplomat.) According to the expert, Erdoğan had sought the meeting to demonstrate to Obama that the red line had been crossed, and had brought Fidan along to state the case. When Erdoğan tried to draw Fidan into the conversation, and Fidan began speaking, Obama cut him off and said: ‘We know.’ Erdoğan tried to bring Fidan in a second time, and Obama again cut him off and said: ‘We know.’ At that point, an exasperated Erdoğan said, ‘But your red line has been crossed!’ and, the expert told me, ‘Donilon said Erdoğan “fucking waved his finger at the president inside the White House”.’ Obama then pointed at Fidan and said: ‘We know what you’re doing with the radicals in Syria.’“

The idea apparently was to force the US hand. The incident was apparently designed to compel the US into acting on Obama's 'red line' and the incident, with the accompanying PR blitz, were designed to make sure that that would be the case. Thankfully, reason prevailed and Obama did not intervene.

♦ Fool me twice [or the great Unicorn massacre]

The Turks let Jabhat al-Nusra  ambush Division 30 in order to make the US more dependent and to shape US Syria policy by destroying their alternate choices.

„... the US plan to create ... a moderate force [in Syria] was humiliatingly knocked on the head when Jabhat al-Nusra attacked and kidnapped many of this US-trained force as they entered Syria from Turkey. It now seems certain that Nusra had been tipped off by Turkish intelligence about the movements of the US-backed unit known as “Division 30”. Turkey apparently did this because it does not want the US to have its own surrogate in Syria … leav(ing) the US with no alternative but to train Turkish-sponsored rebel groups whose primary aim is to topple Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad“

After that stab in the back, the Pentagon's US rebel training program closed shop.

♦ Fool me once more [screw the Kurds, and the US]

Last but not least they sold the US on the idea that they could have Incirlic air base for use against ISIS. Turkey used it as a pretext to go after the Kurds while being demonstrably unconcerned about ISIS.

„In return for the use of Incirlik Air Base just north of the Syrian border, the US betrayed the Syrian Kurds who have so far been its most effective ally against Islamic State(Isis, also known as Daesh). In return for this deal signed on 22 July, the US got greater military cooperation from Turkey, but it swiftly emerged that Ankara’s real target was the Kurds in Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Action against Isis was almost an afterthought, and it was hit by only three Turkish airstrikes, compared to 300 against the bases of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).“

That added insult to injury for the US and the Kurds, since the Kurds have been America's one successful ally in fighting ISIS. In going after the Kurds Turkey again crippled a US ally, while facilitating the very Jihadis that the US opposed.

♦ And then some [the refugee crisis]

Throughout this summer, Turkey was making the rounds, trying to get the Europeans and the US on board with their plan for a Safe Zone in northern Syria to resettle refugees in Syria. Europe was reluctant to get on board, apparently suspecting Turkey’s good faith and motives.

"Turkey is calling on us to support the establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria, whereas Russia - increasingly engaged in Syria - is openly rejecting this idea. There is no doubt that our strengthened cooperation with the region is indispensable, but it will be a long march," EU Council President Donald Tusk has warned ahead of the meeting.

There is also a reluctance to give Turkey too much as it continues to pursue its war against Kurdish militias in the region who are allied to the US and the west."

When Turkey didn’t get ahead with their Safe Zone plans in Bruxelles they used the refugees as leverage. They simply let them loose in a game of bait and switch: Your choice is either the refugee crisis or our Safe Zone (to keep the refugees in Syria). That is, they created for Europe a problem to sell them their solution – the Safe Zone.

That one came also with a PR blitz, which found its icon in the sad photo of the drowned toddler, ironically a Kurdish child from Kobane who had fled ISIS with his parents. While ISIS was hammering the Kurds in Kobane, the Turks had stood by idly, sealing off the border. In terms of cynicism, hard to beat.

The Russian intervention spelt an end to Turkish ideas about a Safe Zone to resettle refugees (under Turkish administration?) in northern Syria. In the meanwhile, the refugees remain Europe's problem.

♦ In closing

Turkey's pattern of behaviour has been quite extraordinary. With allies like that, who needs enemies? This repeated Turkish betrayal, or put in more neutral terms, their agressive pursuit of policies that are fundamentally at odds with US and European interests, goes a long way to explain a possible tacit agreement in the US (and Europe) with Putin's intervention in Syria that Anatol Lieven alludes to.

It also makes clear the grand dilemma the US have maneuvered themselves into. As Cockburn points out:

„… there is a deeper reason for America’s inability to confront Isis successfully. Ever since 9/11, the US has wanted to combat al-Qaeda-type movements, but without disturbing its close relations with Sunni states such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the Gulf monarchies. But it is these same allies that have fostered, tolerated or failed to act against the al-Qaeda clones, which explains their continuing success."

Chas Freeman elaborates in greater detail:

"The ... U.S. invasion and destruction of Iraq’s power and independence from Iran ensured that there was no way to sustain a stable balance of power in the Gulf that did not require the continuation of a huge, expensive, and locally burdensome American military presence there...

No one openly questions this situation but no one is comfortable with it.  And with good reason.  It is politically awkward for all concerned.  It presupposes a degree of congruity in U.S. and Arab views that no longer exists.  And, notwithstanding the Obama administration’s considerable efforts to allay Gulf Arab concerns, they suspect that the logic of events in the region could yet drive America toward rapprochement with Iran and strategic cooperation with it against Sunni Islamism.

In assessing American reliability, our partners in the Gulf cannot forget what happened to Hosni Mubarak.  Not surprisingly, they want to reduce dependence on America for their protection as much as they can.  This is leading to a lot of arms purchases and outreach by Saudi Arabia and other GCC members to countries in Europe as well as China, India, and Russia.  It has also stimulated assertively independent foreign policies on their part. ...

Meanwhile, however, the apparent contradictions between U.S. interests and policies and those of our GCC partners are widening.  The United States now asserts objectives in the region that do not coincide with those of most GCC members.  These include support of the Shi`ite-dominated Iraqi government against its Sunni opposition and assigning priority in Syria to the defeat of Da’esh over the ouster of President Asad.  U.S. support for the Kurds disturbs our Arab friends as well as our Turkish ally.  America supports the GCC’s military operations in Yemen less out of conviction than the perceived need to sustain solidarity with Saudi Arabia.

The United States and Gulf Arab governments have in effect agreed to disagree about the sources of instability in Bahrain and Egypt and how to cure them.  Where a common ideology of anti-communism once united us or caused us to downplay our disagreements, passionate differences between Americans and Arabs over Salafism, Zionism, feminism, religious tolerance, sexual mores, and democratic vs. autocratic systems of governance now openly divide us.  Neither side harbors the sympathy and affection for the other that it once did.  Islamophobia in the United States is matched by disillusionment with America in the Gulf.  But the ultimate sources of mutual discomfort are the strategic conundrums of what to do about Syria and how to deal with Iran."

... to be continued

by confusedponderer

Comments

[different clue]

confusedponderer,

Perhaps all these Euro-Enlightenists decided that Turkey of the Generals reminded them of Greece of the Colonels? And of the various governments of the Colonels and Generals in Latin America?

[different clue]

Kunuri,

Are you saying that the Kemalist and Secular tradition is deep enough throughout the whole Turkish army that the replacements for the removed-by-Erdogan generals and colonels will all themselves still be Kemalists and/or Secularists in the same tradition as before? If I understand correctly, that would be a hopeful thing to think and to work with.

That is why I have referred in past comments to "Erdogists" in particular rather than to "Turkey" in general, and have expressed the hope that we can retain "just enough" relationship with Turkey through NATO and other channels so that if/when the 60% can reconquer their own country, we will still be in a position to relate decently with it.

[different clue]

A.I.Schmelzer,

Would the Iraqi Baathist origins of the ISIS explain ISIS's uniquely genocidal and sadistic focus on the Kurds . . . Yazidi and otherwise?

[Kunuri]

Peace LeaNder, I appreciate your comments and open-mindedness, we all are the wiser the more we interact here.

Just to be clear, to be critical of Israel, or the Zionist paranoiacs within, should not be equated with anti-Semitism. To do so, would be an injustice of biblical proportions.

[Kunuri]

Sibel Edmonds is credible, I have been following her and her blog for years, she checks out in my book.

[Kunuri]

He drives his own private car, and is a humble middle class citizen. I hope he watches out for Boston brakes, or immature heart attacks.

[OIFVet]

I believe the EU PMs meeting last week came up with that proposal for Turkey, but Turkey is so far holding out for more. Regardless, this is ridiculous and shouldn't happen. I like Turks, most are great people and would benefit from being able to travel freely. But Erdogan has purposefully stoked radicalization of the fringe, and the suicide bombings prove that he has succeeded. So how in the world would visa-free travel of Turks work to keep the radicalized elements from entering the EU? I don't see it. Merkel played right into Erdogan's hands when she invited all and sundry to go to Germany, and now the rest of the EU appears to be hellbent to double down on a suicide pact. Retarded is not even close to describing it.

[OIFVet]

Let's hope the jackals will begin to be driven out on November 1st.

[Farooq]

Kunri,

You are a fair minded person. I posit to you that "free thinkers" of yore in Islamicate kingdoms were an anomaly. They were at a disconnect with the irrational and deeply religious world view of the majority of people in their societies. That world view today is rampant and all encompassing in muslim societies. A lot of people in west have a cotton candy view of sufis and mutazla. Sufis alone have done a lot of harm in completely extinguishing any possibility of questioning and inquiring mindset. In south asia they created Sufi feudal class that justified its rule on the basis of their claims to miracle working and mostly fraudulent ancestral lineage from prophet. All the Syeds and Shahs that exist today from Iran to Bangladesh use these titles due to this historic forgery.

In my opinion these "free thinkers" existed because orthodoxy at that time was still in the process of formalizing their framework. The arguments were still fresh on various aspects of Islam so these individuals had space to enjoy some freedom. Well Ibn-Rushd(Averos) did run for his life from a pitch fork crowd that burned down his abode and various works, so even then there was very real possibility of blasphemy mechanism getting activated and causing a backlash.
I doubt if any muslim country including Turkey will tolerate today following statement attributed to Al-Razi about Quran:
“You claim that the evidentiary miracle is present and available, namely, the Koran. You say: 'Whoever denies it, let him produce a similar one.' Indeed, we shall produce a thousand similar, from the works of rhetoricians, eloquent speakers and valiant poets, which are more appropriately phrased and state the issues more succinctly. They convey the meaning better and their rhymed prose is in better meter. … By God what you say astonishes us! You are talking about a work which recounts ancient myths, and which at the same time is full of contradictions and does not contain any useful information or explanation. Then you say: 'Produce something like it'”

Today, the only hope for muslims in fostering rational free thought is to seek refuge in west and do an honest review of their belief system using rational toolkit. I feel greatly indebted to late patricia crone who pretty much single handidly started free inquiry about Islam. The problem is that most muslims in west who despise the intellectual suffocation of their parent societies then openly drink the koolaid of metaphysics for whatever favorite irrational religious view that they have cherry picked from Islam and then ask for special treatment against critique by advocating blasphemy laws. It is truly astounding that very liberal, well read and forward looking muslims advocate application of blasphamy laws to prevent jest and critique directed at their cherished beliefs having fully experienced the consequences of such thought control in their parent societies.

[Farooq]

Kunri,
On your point about noble prize winner, Pakistan also produced Abdus Salam ( severely mistreated at home). There is an Iranian lady who won fields medal in math recently. The problem is that none of these three could have gotten anywhere in their parent societies. They don't hold wide audiences. These are all anomalies. These are seeds who find themselves in desert where they have no hope to flourish and be fecund. The only way they can flourish is if some wind will carry them to lands which can accept them and nurture them. Those lands are in western world today.

Do you know the most widely followed Turkish "thinker" today? It is fraudster Yahya Harun with his widely popular crack pot theories on evolutionary biology.

[different clue]

gemini33,

If all the propaganda outlets and people in the Western World were pre-advised to be ready-to-roll when the 'plausible atrocity' occurred, the Erdogists wouldn't even have to be able to do any downstream publicity. All the gas-attackers would need is their videographers and you-tubers on the ground there to take videogenic atrocity footage and upload it to the Social Media Web. And the organized propaganda apparatus of the entire Western World's governments would be able to take it from there.

Luckily, it all looked just implausible enough that the reality-based sceptics and collectors of genuine evidence had the time and space to make their countercase known.

[Kunuri]

DH, I think you are talking about a good coup within a closed system, which was a coup in itself as it seized power. Within that system, since there were not any traces of democracy, or any room to set the country back, a coup may not have been a bad thing, but everything needs to be judged in context, no?

"a few of us still remaining thinking dodos in Britain"

Your views here are highly appreciated by me over the years, and as this fine example of self depreciating humor. Please keep remaining and thinking.

[Kunuri]

Oh yes, different clue, I am saying that. It is deep enough, many ranks back, more than enough to fill in the vacated ranks. And the removed ranks are not dead, they are retired, inactive, but still wield influence, as Ilker Basbug, former general, chief of staff and many other who have become politicians within CHP, Kemalist Party. Which brings me to the phrase you used, "Erdogists", I think you may have meant "Erdoganists", but it still does not sound right, I've never seen it used that way. Maybe "Tayyibists", or "Recepists", but still does not sound good. I like to use "Tayyiban", because of its allusion to Taliban, or hope to start using "Erdogone" soon, or "Tayippie" after he is gone.

[Kunuri]

Not because the Russians are good guys who are out to do favors for NATO and the allies. The name of the game is force projection and to get the name of your brand out there. Its an old game.

[Kunuri]

"uniquely genocidal and sadistic focus", haaa, as if there is any shortage of this sentiment in the ME.

[LeaNder]

Farooq,

"In my opinion these "free thinkers" existed because orthodoxy at that time was still in the process of formalizing their framework."

I am a bit surprised to read this statement by you. But then, I don't recall in what highly interesting discussion I first noticed you... Oh, maybe I do, maybe I even would find it again even. At least I recall the members of the 'commentariat' involved in the exchange.

Do you think you grasp something central about the Sufis, if you can show that at one point in space they weren't better then the authorities they followed? What analogy did you use, accidentally politics, political ideologies? Yes, I too think there is a relation, but not a simple, and easy one.

I do not think that a simple linear progression over the centuries makes sense if we look into people and their lives at the time, if we look beyond the historical numbers, and VIPs in history, or put another way that we can simply judge the life of ordinary people from that perspective.

[LeaNder]

Kunuri, it was tongue in cheek. The problem is bigger, and for the time being I would prefer not to elaborate.

[LeaNder]

Farooq, seriously, why should we step into propaganda meme traps and some type of nationalization of noble prize winners? Does it matter what origin an essential other "big shoulder" future scientists can rely on?

[Barish]

To whom it may be of concern, here's some of those articles in Turkish, both stating that the sarin gas went to ISIL (Turkish IŞİD):

http://www.meydangazetesi.com.tr/gundem/chp-milletvekili-baris-yarkadas-isidin-suriyede-kullandigi-sarin-gazi-turkiyede-yapildi-h39148.html

http://www.haberler.com/yeniden-chp-li-gursel-tekin-den-basbakan-davutoglu-7794207-haberi/

Second link shows that this story appears to get picked up by the CHP opposition party, which one may consider the old, secular guard.

Used to spend a while in Turkey several years ago, and wasn't particularly upset with what Tayyip was doing. The dirt he's been pulling - or trying to - in Syria has drastically changed my mind on that, however: From the leaked false-flag plan inside Syria early last year, see here:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/turkey-youtube-ban-full-transcript-leaked-syria-war-conversation-between-erdogan-officials-1442161

to the now open support of the insurgency there there's plenty damning bits to go around. So I join the suggestion made here by someone else that right now would be the time for a cadre of Kemalist officers to oust Tayyip.

[LeaNder]

Interesting story Ishmael. I got tiny glimpses of it. The Gülen Movement surfaced occasionally over here, while Grey Wolves receded as the dominant story in the years after 2001. Not much on either lately.

On the other hand the political divide (Turkish/Kurdish background)obviously surfaced again. Clashes, attacks on citizen with Kurdish background. There also seems to be a case on trial concerning an informer hired by the Turkish intelligence to target regime opponents. They seem to be very, very well informed according to that guy. Watching demos?

But Dani Rodrik's and Pinar Dogan's research looks interesting, unfortunately their more extensive publication seems not be available in translation:

Doğan P, Rodrik D. Yargı, Cemaat ve Bir Darbe Kurgusunun İç Yüzü. Istanbul: Destek Yayinevi; 2014. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Written jointly with Pinar Dogan, this is an update of our 2010 book (see below) on the infamous Sledgehammer case in Turkey. In addition to the Sledgehammer trial, the book covers the Ergenekon and other court cases that were stage managed by the Gulen network, in cooperation with the Erdogan government. It provides detailed evidence on the framing of innocent victims by police and prosecutors in an evident attempt to politically redesign the country. It also examines the role of the media and intelligentsia in shaping public opinion over the trials.

******

Thanks for the info. ;)

[confusedponderer]

Interesting news about Turkey's role in the Ghouta incident from MEMRI - the CHP is apparently making it a political issue in Turkey right now:

"At an Istanbul press conference yesterday (October 21, 2015), two MPs from Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Eren Erdem and Ali Seker, claimed that the August 2013 chemical attack on the Damascus suburb of Ghouta, in which hundreds of civilians were killed, was carried out not by the Assad regime but by ISIS, and that the gas used in the attack had been manufactured in Turkey and supplied to this organization with the knowledge of the AKP government. They stated further that the government instructed a Turkish prosecutor to close the file in a probe into this affair ...

Erdem and Seker said that the office of the Chief Prosecutor in Adana had launched an investigation into suspicions that chemical weapons had been supplied from Turkey, via several businessmen, to jihadist organizations that joined ISIS in Syria. The indictment against the suspects also included accusations against the government.

According to the MPs, the prosecutors determined that the suspects had provided the state-owned Turkish Mechanical and Chemical Industries Corporation (MKE) with raw materials they brought from abroad, some of which were used by this corporation to manufacture the toxic gas. The Rockets used to fire the capsules containing the toxic gas were also manufactured in Turkey. It was also found that monetary transactions between Saudi Arabia and Turkey had taken place regarding these materials.

Holding up the 190-page file, Erdem said that the prosecutor's office had conducted detailed technical surveillance and wiretaps, and added: "It's all in this file. All the details and audio recordings are here, on how the sarin gas was manufactured in Turkey and delivered to terrorists. Their phone conversations reveal all the details, even their addresses." Erdem said further that a crime against humanity was committed and that those responsible were the AKP government and then-PM Erdogan, who supplied the sarin gas to the ISIS terrorists. He claimed further that AKP government officials instructed Mehmet Arikan, the Adana prosecutor handling the case, to "close the file" and that [then-]Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag also summoned him and demanded to be informed in the future before any such investigation was undertaken against any Islamic organization. "

http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8812.htm