MAP ONLY: Behind enemy lines ... The SAA offensive in Aleppo

By Patrick BAHZAD - situation as of October 16th 2015, 4 pm EDT

As government offensives in the NW of Syria have been met with stiff resistance by various rebels groups, a new operation seems to have started deep inside rebel held territory, around the divided city of Aleppo.

While the ongoing Syrians advances have been mostly marginal so far, they are nonetheless significant in more than one way. In the area furthest South (Rastan enclave), SAA and auxilary units almost managed to cut the rebel held ground in two halves, through a South-North thrust along the M5 highway. North of Hama, government troops are trying to close in rebels by advancing along a line that runs parallel, but behind the rebels' main defense line. 

In Ghab plain, Syrian armour was met with fierce ATGM fire, but regained control of a north-south corridor, which opens the way to further advances towards Jisr al-Shughur, a strategic city located along the M4 highway connecting Latakia to Idlib. Most likely, the coming push into Jisr al-Shughur will be the result of a pincer movement, with advances through Ghab plain representing the Eastern flanking move, while the main thrust will come from the South-West, through Ghmam and the M4.

Although both sides could argue they have currently scored some points, tactical developments on the ground do not reflect the military balance of power. In fact, what we are witnessing is a form a attritional warfare along a frontline that stretches from North Hama almost to the Turkish border.

The calculus on the Russian/Syrian/Iranian side is to "bleed" the rebels' manpower and logistics, up to a point where the defences that were put in place in the areas under attack will crumble and collapse. Such a strategy is based on the assumption that losses incurred would be acceptable in comparison to the potential strategic gains that can be achieved.

As everybody who studied warfare knows, attritional battles are a double edged sword. In this instance however, the differential in fire-power, organisation and air superiority is such that it is difficult to imagine the rebels withstanding the current onslaught. Interestingly also, the tactical gains on the battlefield often take more time to materialize than the power differential suggests.

When the first cracks in one of the adversaries' posture appear though, that is the moment when the strategists in charge need to retain the momentum they achieved and increase the operational pace, thus precipitating the decomposition of the adversary's organisation. In the current battle, such an outcome seems all the more likely that a new "front" was opened today deep inside rebel held territory, as the Syrian army - probably reinforced by Lebanese Hezbollah and/or Iranian Pasdarans - moved forward in the South-West of Aleppo (area 1 on the map) and towards the East (area 2).

The operational implications of this new fighting ground are substantial. From a rebels' perspective, they are now facing the prospect of a two front war, which will force them to allocate their resources and manpower even more carefully. This balancing act will further complicate their planning and open the way to a potential breakthrough of a Russian/Syrian/Iranian force of heavy armour and infantry, in any of the areas mentioned above, most likely in Latakia province.

For the Syrian government on the other side, the ability to regain the initiative in Aleppo, where its forces have been hard pressed for quite some time, is not just of symbolic value, insofar as it will commit rebel groups direly needed elsewhere. It is not a diversion either, as the second axis of attack (area 2 on the map) aims at opening the road to Kuweires airbase, an isolated SAA post that is cut off from Aleppo by units of the "Islamic State".

Currently, this offensive in area 2 is the only ground operation that the Russian led coalition has launched against ISIS. At the time this piece was drafted, SAA units were about 5 miles away from Kuweires airbase. Should this offensive manage to get through, it could hand the Russians a potentially fully operational airbase much further East than anything they currently have.

 

Comments

[Kunuri]

Albayim, what would you advise Erdogan? Provided that he overcame his hubris and is open to it.

[Fred]

Tyler,

I doubt he was doing any taunting, just the opposite. What he advised Obama is the important thing. We didn't get overtly involved in either conflict now did we?

[BostonB]

Come on, that was funny. I damn near spit out my tea. That reminds me:

My wife asked me, "Would you like tea?"
I thought for a moment, "Can I choose any letter?"

[Bandolero]

Patrick

Thanks for the update.

I have some more annotations:

1. From the perspective of the rebels there happened one more bug thing around Aleppo in recent days: they lost the infantry school north of Sheikh Najjar industrial zone, likely to ISIS. The details of who faught there are quite murky, but what's clear is that the rebels lost the infantry school, and with it quite some territory around it. The map you use here is outdated in this point: north of the letters "Alep" on your map there is no rebel territory anymore, they lost theis territory and the infantry school to ISIS. There was also some fierce fighting between what looks like ISIS and rebels in a very strategic region north west the infantry school, namely in the villages Tal Qarah, Tal Jibbin and Ahras.

http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.327296&lon=37.240906&z=11&m=b&gz=0;371406555;363549511;398254;171410;41198;436744;0;0

For the rebels this region is very important, because ISIS control over it further threatens their fragile supply routes from Bab Al Salam crossing to Aleppo city.

2. The Syrian army's advance to lift the siege on Kweires airbase may not only give way to hand over the base to the Russians, but also to further proceed east on the ground up the Euphrat, thereby linking YPG held Kobani territory with Syrian government held Aleppo. It seems a long way to go from Kweiris airbase to lake Assad (about 40km), but it's only small villages in the way. So that might be a further strategic plan thought about in Damascus behind that eastern Aleppo offensive.

[Fred]

Also called Rasin El Aboud for those looking for it on google maps.

[SAC Brat]

The US acts like it is not really interested in eliminating jihadi movements, which is very strange considering who attacked the US on 9/11.

[Patrick Bahzad]

You're right about the ISIS advance, but I see it more as some opportunistic action, for the reasons you mentioned. That is why this map doesn't reflect that border correction, which is very limited to be honest. They don't even fully control the villages you mention. Could go the other way tomorrow ...

Regarding your second point, maybe, but I dont see them going that way. You don't want to take on two enemies simultaneously when you can take care of them separately.

[no one]

Patrick, I hope this is not too stupid question as I am genuinely curious; how have the government troops around Aleppo survived, let alone be supplied for an offensive? It looks like they have been totally surrounded by enemy forces.

[robt willmann]

pl, Patrick B.,

I did not say, and have not said, that the U.S. conspired to bring ISIS into being. I did say that I think that ISIS is not a standalone organization. This means that the issue involves help that ISIS has received from private persons, private organizations (including business organizations), and governments, or some combination of them.

[ISL]

jld:
I just dont know, I have come to expect higher video quality from the empire.
:)

[Patrick Bahzad]

Not surrounded.

They use a road that goes through Salamyyia (north-east of Homs), then takes a turn North to khanaser, along Jaboul lake, and finally arrives in the southern suburbs of Aleppo.

[no one]

Patrick, Thank you. Interesting. I am surprised the enemy has not been able to take measures to cut off that supply route. It seems such an obvious and effective means of reducing the government forces in the Aleppo region.

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

Rad that Al Naseriya, located in Al Na'am height, is now in government hands.

Also Al Jabul, Tel Riman, Al Salehiyah are also under government control.

The aim is also to break the siege of the airport called کویرس

[Tigershark]

Thanks for the expanded explanation. There is a lot of terrain to cover here. (pun intended)

[Patrick Bahzad]

Sure.
It's not about staging another Arnhem though, just clear and hold certain border posts while the cavalry arrives, in order to interdict rebels' resupply roads.

[robt willmann]

Fred,

Thanks. According to the photograph with the map, the land looks nice and flat around the airbase. This should make clearing the area around it easier. If Syrian soldiers are still holed up in there, that would be even better. I wonder how long the runway is?

The map shows that the airbase is north of a large highway that runs to the west straight to Aleppo. That cinches it. Getting control of that airbase and fixing it up as needed is at the top of the list.

[user1234]

Patrick Bahzad & Col. Lang,
Thanks for this series of maps and updates, and for putting together this valuable discussion! Your efforts are appreciated!

[turcopolier]

PB

MY SWAG is that this is the same route used to reinforce Aleppo in the last few days. pl

[LeaNder]

PB, thanks for your work. Especially the maps. Apart from that the obvious reduction you chose.

b's responses concerning whatever is missing felt familiar. But this time, for whatever reason I did not miss details, since you suggested some type of larger picture I didn't even expect them. ;)

But yesterday, by chance I got a short news report concerning a smaller town east of Aleppo. The news report had reduced it's own maps to the threat of Isis in gray to prove the Russian's didn't do what they "pretend" but in fact attacked civilians.

The German channel two online expert cited Jane in GB, while the report's interviewees claimed that the town was in the hold of the Free Syrian Army, but nevertheless also suggested they were only inhabited by civilians.

Question:
Does the Free Syrian Army still exist? Are they cooperating with the Kurds?

How does it make sense to claim the town (German transcription: Darrat Ezzah) is only inhabited by civilians but also under the control of the Free Syrian Army??? Can that be???

I have the impression you understand German. The report starts after 10:38 with the introduction:
http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/beitrag/video/2516678/ZDF-heute-journal-vom-16.-Oktober-2015?bc=svp;sv1#/beitrag/video/2516678/ZDF-heute-journal-vom-16.-Oktober-2015

[turcopolier]

kunuri

He should leave the country before the coup. pl

[turcopolier]

Bandolero

"The Syrian army's advance to lift the siege on Kweires airbase may not only give way to hand over the base to the Russians, but also to further proceed east on the ground up the Euphrat, thereby linking YPG held Kobani territory with Syrian government held Aleppo. It seems a long way to go from Kweiris airbase to lake Assad (about 40km), but it's only small villages in the way. So that might be a further strategic plan thought about in Damascus behind that eastern Aleppo offensive." this makes a lot of sense when combined with the border closure operation and the advance from the Hama area. pl

[Nightsticker]

Patrick B.

Please continue your excellent series of
reports on the R+5 military action in Syria.
I look for them everyday and enjoy them
tremendously.

Nightsticker
USMC 65-72
FBI 72-96

[Fred]

robt,

It's long enough. Not like they'll be staging a Russian version of an Arc Light mission out of there. When taken I suspect they'll based helicopters there first.

[Patrick Bahzad]

I'll do my best ... Kind of a (small) team effort here. Glad it's helpful.

Gonna fall of the grid for a few hours though, as rugby World Cup play offs are on my menu and I might need Sunday to recover from my hangover, in case France wins - or loses !

[Jack]

Second that. All Patrick's posts not just on the current military action in Syria have been thought provoking and IMO very helpful. Thanks PB!