Linda Lau on the state of Palestinian affairs

October 1, 2015

 

 Yesterday Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas gave his annual speech before the UN General Assembly. It was rumored in advance that he would have a big announcement to make.  What he said was that the Palestinians would no longer abide by the 1993 Oslo Accords since Israel was not living up to the agreement. It was ostensibly a major announcement since the agreement involved security cooperation, collection of taxes and other areas. However, he did not present any sort of plan to back up his statement. Immediately after his speech, the Palestinians saw their flag raised at the UN rose garden alongside the 193 other countries of the world. Since the PA was granted observer status by a UN resolution, it was entitled to have its flag flown. Also, since 2012 the PA had been working diligently to gain membership in various UN organizations such as the International Criminal Court. The Vatican has recognized a Palestinian state and several European parliaments have passed resolutions just short of this.

 

The reality, though, is different. The world has turned its attention to other conflicts in the Middle East such as Syria and Yemen and has pretty much forgotten the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  Some analysts even argue that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu  for example, has still come out of the Iranian nuclear deal with half of what he wanted – he is no longer under any pressure to resume negotiations with the Palestinians since he has created Iran as a huge threat for the world to concentrate on.

 

US Secretary of State said weakly yesterday that he still believes a two state solution was possible. An Israeli scholar Meron Benvenisti, back in the 1970’s and early 1980’s had an imaginary clock that he set to reflect the possibility of a two state solution. I don’t recall that he moved it to exactly midnight but certainly very close. This was at a time when Jerusalem was governed as a united city, admittedly by an Israeli mayor. Palestinians still held most of their land in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank although the settlements were expanding. Israel largely governed through Palestinian mayors of the various municipalities. Conditions were far from perfect and Israeli governance was onerous. But, in 1993 came the Oslo Accords. Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and PLO leader Yasir Arafat shook hands in the Rose Garden of the White House with a beaming President Clinton looking on. The Accords would have made a viable, though not ideal, solution for a Palestinian state. Shortly thereafter, Prime Minister Rabin was assassinated. No other Israeli prime minister since that time has had the will or the power to carry out the accords. Some steps have been taken in terms of security cooperation, but the Israelis have ignored even this whenever they chose to.

 

The Palestinians for their part have never gotten past the Arafat generation. Abbas learned his skills at the side of Arafat and those skills did not involve being the president of something like the PA which is supposed to become a country.  His main focus is ensuring the continuation of his leadership regardless of the numerous ministries and organizations that have been created.  Since he is 80 years old, there is talk of a successor. However, there is little hope of one emerging under current circumstances. There is a critical need for fresh ideas and new ways of governing, but without a chance to develop whether from civil society or charitable organizations (like the one founded by Salam Fayyad that Abbas shut down) or some other venue, there will be serious infighting and a continuation of the same style of leadership.

 

 I believe that the clock is well past midnight in terms of allowing for a two state solution. The settlements are too large and too numerous. Infrastructure has been built that benefits only the settlers and the Palestinians are not even allowed to have access. Much Palestinian land in East Jerusalem has been confiscated and Israeli apartment buildings erected. The economy in the West Bank and Gaza has been nearly destroyed by the lack of ability to move goods and people across borders. Israel uses the tax revenues it collects to parcel out slowly, often for what it sees as good behavior and holds the PA responsible. The economy is seriously damaged.

 

So, the talk of negotiations for a two state solution simply allows Israel to  create more “facts on the ground and the world stands by and doesn’t watch.   

 

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

IMO Israel still benefits from the residuum of hard and soft power of Russia and the US! As long as that lasts [and time running out for both IMO] Israel will last.

[Origin]

Perhaps the first step in Palestine's new status as a state would be to enforce its own borders.

As a state, the Palestinians logically should take the position that the settlements are all in Palestine and subject only to Palestinian laws and that the residents of the settlements are not Israelis, but Palestinians subject only to the Laws of Palestine. Then, in the spirit of the consequences of the Karma of the Israelis and settlers ignoring of Golden Rule, they can subject the settlers to the reciprocal limitations the Israelis have subjected on the Palestinians starting by making them stateless by confiscating their passports and identity papers and enforcing the wall to keep them in Palestine by setting up gates on the Palestinian side of the Israeli checkpoints to keep the Jewish citizen of Palestine in the prison that is Palestine. You know, the idea of equal justice done to the settlers that the Israelis do to the Palestinians. Also enforce equal housing opportunity on the settlements.

As so many conservatives say, a country is not a country if it cannot enforce its borders. Logic says that Palestine is a country. It has a right to enforce its borders and put its writ on all of its inhabitants with equal protection and taxation for all.

[FB Ali]

Which universe are you living in?

[FB Ali]

Mahmud Abbas's speech was a joke (as he is himself).

As Al Jazeera said about this 'declaration' in its report: "More of a warning than a declaration, Abbas.....ostensibly left himself wiggle room by using vague wording and adding a number of caveats".

One of the reasons for the sorry state Palestinians are in is the corruption and double-dealing of their leaders, Abbas leading.

The US, Israel and Egypt are creating fertile ground for the Islamic State to find recruits and support.

[jdledell]

Origin - Sorry to burst your idea bubble. First, the settlers live in Area C, 2/3rds of the West Bank where Israel has full security and administrative control. Palestinians are crammed into Area A, Palestinian cities, or Area B, land that surrounds those cities. Areas A & B is where Palestinians have security control, if Israel allows it. Consequently, until Israel allows Area C to be secured and administered by the Palestinians there are no Jewish settlers to put under Palestinian laws.

Second, if the Palestinians ever tried to restrict the movement of Jewsih settlers they would be mowed down like rats. There is no way the Palestinians can match Israeli firepower. I once watched the IDF try to arrest a Palestinian who was holed up in a small house in al-Birah. They did not bring in a SWAT team - they simply brought in a tank which fired 3 rounds into the house - no more house, no more Palestinian.

[Imagine]

Gaza is scheduled to have irreversible damage to its aquifers within five years; already 90% of the water is undrinkable by humans. (Gaza: 1.8M people):

http://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/press-releases/gaza-2020-liveable-place
http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2015/09/gaza-united-nations/403570/
https://www.rt.com/news/314577-gaza-water-shortage-humanitarian/
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdb62d3_en.pdf

I conclude from this that most probably Israel's strategy is simply to wait, and the problem will resolve itself.

See here for a different conflicting narrative:
"Israel Doubles Water Supply to Gaza"
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4665260,00.html
but this looks like water which is charged and must be paid for. The joke here:

http://unctad.org/en/Pages/PressRelease.aspx?OriginalVersionID=261
"The [U.N.] report reveals that in the first four months of 2015, Israel withheld almost $700 million of Palestinian clearance revenue, which comes from taxes on imports into the Occupied Palestinian Territory, compounding a fiscal crisis for the Palestinian National Authority, on whose behalf Israel collects the revenues.

Since 1997, Israel has withheld Palestinian clearance revenue on six occasions, for a total period of four years and one month, and amounting to $3 billion withheld. At 75 per cent of fiscal funds, this represents the main source of Palestinian public revenue. In addition, Israel does not pay interest on money it does not transfer to the Palestinian National Authority when withholding Palestinian clearance revenue, which is in the range of hundreds of millions of dollars."

so it goes.

[jdledell]

Linda - It's way past midnight in Israel/Palestine. I am a Jewish Israeli citizen that has returned to the U.S., the land of my birth. I have been going back and forth to Israel 2 to 3 times a year and have for the last 60 years. I listen to Israeli politicians tell the people they is no Palestine and thus no Palestinian state. What everyone in Israel is talking about now is to annex Area C and let Area A and some of Area B autonomous Palestinian zones. If the Palestinians don't like it they can move. 98% of Israelis call that territory Judea and Samaria and the word West Bank is rarely used anymore. Israel is confident that the rest of the World will give lip service to sanctions/boycotts when Israel creates Palestinian bantustans. This is one of the reasons Netanyahu maid such a bog stink about the Iran deal so that little Israel is given an almost free pass on bantustans.

[Imagine]

Strategist B. Bueno-de-Mesquita proposes a self-enforcing game-theoretic solution "requiring each side to have incentives to promote peace and resist terrorism purely in their own interests, utterly without concern for whether it helps the other side". As example, he proposes the Israeli & Palestinian gov'ts treat to distribute a proportion of their tax revenues from tourism to each other. Peace would pay off handsomely to both sides. A win-win solution based purely on self-interest. There are non-obvious fine details required for this to work. See "The Predictioneer's Game", pp. 103-115.

[Poul]

My thought too with regards to the water supply to Gaza.

The same policy could also be used in the West Bank. No water, no life. And if the only way to get water is to obey the Israeli masters... Well you either abase yourself or leave for a another country.

[Castellio]

Yes, they consistently seed the field... and have been doing so for a long time...

[Castellio]

Right... well, you have the apt moniker for your comment.

The reality is way beyond good intentions leading to mutual assistance. Its important to really read and understand what jdledell just wrote.

[Origin]

Should have put the irony alert sticker on the post. As we all know, the Palestinians have as much chance as the Apaches. In 1872.

[different clue]

jdledell,

So, 2 State Solution nostalgiasts and legacy Rabinists and so forth are down to 2% of the JewIsraeli population? This is literally arithmetically correct?

[different clue]

Imagine,

The only way I could see the IsraelGov side agreeing to such a thing would be if total governing power over Israel were re-taken by the 2 State Solution nostalgiasts and the legacy Rabinists and so forth. They would have to win a civil war against the various Revisionists and Settlerists to be able to conquer that power. Is there any reason to think there is enough of them that they could win such a civil war if they even dared try?

[FB Ali]

Is that an attempt at humour?

[Green Zone Cafe]

Only path for the Palestinians is to dissolve the PA and all of its policing institutions and begin a campaign of passive non-violent resistance for voting and seats in the Knesset. "No taxation without representation" should be their slogan.

Only this can change things now. It would only work on the West Bank, of course; the governance of Gaza is irrelevant to the Israelis.

[LeaNder]

The larger financial tax system is interesting.

There was at least one tax strike once. It resulted in Israeli confiscations.

Another issue, I do not know too much about, but it seems that the Palestinians pay higher prices then Israelis for water. Never mind that some comes from the occupied land. It may well have been the reason behind some early settlements.

*****
... at one point I noticed that German media reported about the tax money once again withhold, or the share of it, I guess, was reported as if it was money given to the Palestinians not their own money withhold to exert pressure and then released again. Maybe the people reporting it weren't even aware of the issue.

Yesterday there was a documentary on the French/German Arte channel about EU complicity. Billions for what? Money instead of politics? Haven't watched it yet.

Sorry Google translate link only available in French and German

http://tinyurl.com/Arte-Palestine-Eu

[LeaNder]

jdledell, I once was close to moving to a artist Kibbutz or maybe it was a little former Palestinian town, I lost contact with the woman that invited me in Amsterdam. ...

But when I read Tanya Gold's report about German converts I was reminded of it...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/06/judaism.secondworldwar

I didn't keep notes and don't recall where exactly it was located. We mainly talked about arts and the art the people staying there did. I do not even remember if it was a Kibbutz, something I no doubt found attractive at the time, or if it was simply a Palestinan village that the artists "occupied" in. I would have had only rather vague awareness at the time about such a possibility. Maybe none at all, I have to admit.

[LondonBob]

The fast growth of the religious extremists, with their high fertility, and the increasing radicalisation of Israeli society, in the overseas Jewish community as well, points in only one direction for the Palestinians. Israel is certainly one country that should not have extensive nuclear and chemical weapons.

I find coverage of the Palestinian occupation has almost entirely been dropped from the MSM here in Britain, which has however been offset by the growth in alternative media. Really we will need action from the outside world, sooner rather than later. I think Europe is increasingly engaged on the issue, but the Arab world seems more focused on the Sunni Shia civil war. Maybe a resolution to Iraq and Syria, with an increased Russian role in the ME, will add new stimulus to efforts. I do wonder why Abbas was in Moscow with Erdogan for the Mosque recently.