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22 October 2015

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William R. Cumming

Thanks for this insightful comment. The FP leadership in US IMO desperately trying to stay relevant in Syria but successful de facto partiton by New Year's will demonstrate US irrelevance.

turcopolier

WRC

I think there is a better than 50% chance that the jihadi/unicorn/Borgist forces in Syria will be routed and de facto partition will not take place. pl

Bill Herschel

Supporting your view, is the fact that more clearly every day, Putin is exploiting "client confusion" (akin to "gender confusion") between the U.S. and Israel.

Who is who's client?

Prior to GWB, it could be argued that Israel was a US client. GWB's Iraq war changed that and the US became Israel's client in the Middle East. GWB didn't have a full deck, because coming in on the Iran-Iraq war on the side of Iran wasn't exactly a brilliant move, but he never did have a full deck.

Which brings us to today. Who is who's client? Israel clearing wants the US to be its client (Bibi via all the American politicians he controls calling for a US-enforced "no-fly" zone) and Obama, no friend of Bibi's, doing nothing, perhaps responding to accurate polling of the American public who have no interest in no-fly zones over Syria.

Client paralysis. Putin knew it would happen. Just as he knew there would be no "Coalition of the Willing" to retrieve Crimea for Ukraine. All Putin needed to execute his strategy of foreign policy sanity was public support in Russia and just enough money to take advantage of superb Russian technical and intelligence skills to create a force that demonstrated Russia's strength.

They say he sleeps with a pillow under his gun. I would say he studies hard and sleeps soundly.

Matthew

J Villain: Have you considered that the people Assad wants to govern have already fled to government-controlled areas. As to those that remain in rebel areas...he might prefer to make German and Swedish residents.

Babak Makkinejad

Yes, women have not been required to walk over the mine fields or to fight to the death; yet they are all full of righteous indignation of being oppressed by the Patriarchy.

Babak Makkinejad

Yes, just like the aftermath of the Spanish Civil War or the Reconstruction.

Willy B

The Qatari defense minister is meeting Ash Carter at the Pentagon, this monring. While it's likely that they'll discuss Syria, his comments to CNN the other day probably will not be mentioned in any readout that follows the meeting.

Willy B

Kerry and Lavrov met in Vienna, today. Their Turkish and Saudi equivalents are supposed to join them. I doubt Kerry got what we wanted from Lavrov on the question of Assad, but he knew that would be the case going in. As Kirby said the other day, Kerry realizes not everyone agrees with him that Assad has to go.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-s-kerry-and-russian-foreign-minister-sergei-lavrov-start-talks-on-syria-in-vienna-1445597620?alg=y

Fred

CP,

A fool and his money are soon parted. Apparently they not only don't teach that in elementary school but one can get to adulthood not understanding that fact. He will be lucky if they didn't take his bank records and steal his identity from him.

Fred

Col.,

If the defeated remnants of ISIS do retreat down to the Gulf states and/or Saudi Arabia what chances do those regimes have of remaining in power? What do you think the US should do if events lead to that?

turcopolier

fred

To paraphrase a scene in Private Ryan, "Don't shoot let'em burn." oil/gas are fungible commodities. Whoever has them will sell them. pl

James Doleman

Interesting article on Iraqi Army/Militia recapturing Baiji refinary.

http://1001iraqithoughts.com/2015/10/22/baiji-district-recaptured-by-iraqs-forces-in-rapid-offensive/

Odd to see militia sitting on this model of tank.

https://1001iraqithoughts.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/ali-al-fahdawi.jpg?w=676

plantman


turcopolier said...

VV

"This is a war of attrition" No. There will be a clear victory....

turcopolier said...

WRC
I think there is a better than 50% chance that the jihadi/unicorn/Borgist forces in Syria will be routed and de facto partition will not take place. pl

My question: What would a "clear victory" look like???
Will the Syrian Army retake Aleppo and break the back of the insurgents?
How do you see this playing out since most of us have no experience with these things?

Thanks

Tyler

CP,

Those camps seem pretty flammeable, and it burns up before they put people there, well they'll have to find somewhere else to put em.

Just saying.

The governments of the West have declared war on their own people in the name of some sort of half assed generosity that they plan on keeping as far from themselves as possible and telling the little people "deal with it". Get your gallows ready, I say.

Tyler

Boston B, VV,

Make America Great Again.

Medicine Man

Col.: I hope your words prove prophetic in this case.

Valissa

Thanks for the link but couldn't find a way around the subscription block on this one. Found this article about the full 4way meeting...

Kerry: US, Russia, Turkey, Saudi weigh new ideas for Syria political transition to end war http://www.680news.com/2015/10/23/in-vienna-kerry-seeks-political-solution-to-syria-war-in-talks-with-russian-turk-saudi-fms/

Castellio

I agree with your pessimism regarding the anti-Russian pro-war orientation of America's political leaders, I am less pessimistic regarding the potential stabilization in the region.

In identity terms, the R+5 are not defining ISIS/Daesh as representative of Sunni Islam, but rather as Takfiri. ISIS/Daesh might see themselves as representative, but how many actually believe them?

When Iran and Hezbollah are, at this moment, aiding a Sunni-majority army to reestablish its national borders, perhaps we should question the rhetorical use of the Sunni-Shia divide to determine all futures.

Kyle Pearson

>>>>Sanders wants to arm Syrian rebels.

He's got a funny way of showing it, then - he voted against arming them just last year:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/09/18/1330761/-Senate-Votes-78-22-to-Arm-the-Syrian-Rebels

And I havent seen him mention "arm the rebels" in any of the interviews i've seen - in fact, it appears that he is emphasizing diplomacy and fighting ISIS, rather than fighting the Syrian government.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/bernie-sanders--the-world-has-got-to-respond-to-syria-524578371989

VietnamVet

Castellio

I hope you are right. All I know is from living for three years in SE Asia half a century ago. But, the globalist’s “can’t we all get along” is a new phenomenon that arose because of the slaughter in Europe during WWII, atomic weapons dampening ingrained war fever, and propaganda from the Elite to try to keep the United States from spinning apart into its various ethnic groups. Any Shiite militia from Lebanon, Iraq or Iran will be seen as foreign invaders by the Sunnis. The only force that has any legitimacy is the Syrian Arab Army. But, it has to be tired and depleted after four and a half years of war. The educated moderate Sunnis are long gone or dead. The only ones left are those willing to die for their land and the radicalized foreign recruits arriving from the billion and half Sunnis across the world.

The only possible way that this can end well is for the world’s sovereign states to join together and isolate the non-state Islamists or kill them all and let Allah sort them out. The last would start World War III unless a mistake or the first female American President starts a world war with Russia first.

the Unready

Colonel,

They are in the government controlled part and (mostly) still in their own homes. Some as near as 200 metres from the front line.

I can't imagine what they're going through - I left over 2 years ago. They're quite worried about the recent cutoff of the Khanasser road - if it doesn't reopen soon then that means debilitating shortages of pretty much everything - including fuel and food.

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