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20 October 2015

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eakens

I'm sure Trudeau too will be good to Israel, but losing Harper will definitely be a loss for that only true democracy in the Middle East.

red brick

70% of Canadians are very happy to see Harper and the neocons defeated.

Trudeau promised to cancel the F-35 purchase and to hold an open bidding process for Canada's next fighter jets. And he promised to end the current bombing mission vs. ISIS. We'll see if the latter promise holds. He also promised to accept many more Syrian refugees and to restore Canada's aid, development assistance, and peacekeeping efforts.

The Liberals have always been strong supporters of Israel, but will be more balanced on that question than the Harperites, who were the world's most unflinching backers of Israeli war crimes, even when the latter involved killing Canadian peacekeepers in Lebanon.

On domestic policy, they will offer the usual Canadian balance of social programs and market initiatives, with better relations with the US on regional questions.

The big question will be if the housing and consumer credit bubbles burst in the event of a global slump and a deepening Canadian recession.

With ~40% of the vote, the Liberals did not necessarily deserve a majority Parliament, but most Canadians will be quite happy with the shift in government. Trudeau promised to initiate an electoral reform process, but what majority government ends up doing that? We'll see.

The Beaver

Colonel,

The best time for me was at 20:20 when it looked (and it did happen) like a sweep of 32 ridings in Atlantic Canada and then, one hour afterwards ( when polls were closed in QC,ONT, MAN, SAKS and Alberta and the North) to hear Peter Mansbridge say, with confidence: "Trudeau will lead the new Govt."

Hopefully his foreign policy(ies) will be different from ex-PM Harper. Now we have to watch whether he will keep his promises ( or at least some).

As far as Israel is concerned, I am pretty sure that his brother Alexandre will be breathing on his neck if he dares be too chummy with Likud. After all, as a liberal politician , he must still remember what the rich pro-israel crowd of Toronto did in 2011.

The Beaver

Oh, BTW: President Richard Nixon prophecy:

A toast, at a state dinner in 1972, when J Trudeau was only four months old, that the child would become prime minister someday.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/10/16/richard-nixon-predicted-justin-trudeau-would-be-future-pm

AEL

Mr. Trudeau ran a flawless campaign. He positively glitters while he speaks.

I fear that no person can fulfill the expectations that have been raised. In much the same way that Obama did not deliver on the hope / change thing.

For the nonce, I am happy that Mr. Harper has been retired.

FB Ali

Bravo, indeed! It was a great performance by the Canadian people. They rallied together from coast to coast to get rid of the mean-spirited, divisive Stephen Harper (even some long-time Conservative supporters had sickened of his tactics to hang on to power). Unfortunately, in the rush to get rid of him, the poor NDP got trampled; they deserved better. But it is difficult to fine tune such a large people's movement.

We can hope for a return by Canada to its long-standing forward-looking, inclusive, and generous policies.

confusedponderer

That means Harper is out! Good. Congrats for giving that nut the boot.

Ken Roberts

We are generally quite happy with the results of the election -- better than many of us thought possible. Harper was a dangerous radical. Most Canadians are inherently small-c conservative, not in a political sense, but in terms of wanting to stay with what has worked in the past. Hence some of the strange inconsistencies in our arrangments. Having a capable, devious ideologue making and forcing thru decisions on our behalf was producing many disruptions.

The constituencies which Harper managed to alienate over the past nine years include these:
-- urban voters: even Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg went Lib/NDP.
-- northern voters: north-of-60 went Lib/NDP.
-- Atlantic Canada: unfair regional favouritism sent all 32 seats to Lib.
-- Progressive Conservatives: those whom Harper's Reform/Alliance party merged into, became increasingly dissatisfied with his disruptive, even criminal acts. I used to make this quite clear to anyone calling "would I support H?"
-- Newer Canadians: anyone who was not three generations "old stock", ie lots of us.

Justin Trudeau is not perfect. We do not expect that of our prime ministers -- there is no POTUS here. But he is capable of doing a better job than Harper. We were ready, and he was ready -- so we go forward.

There are possibilities for further improvements, that are evident. We go into brand-repair mode internationally, and into social infrastructure repair mode domestically.

Paul Escobar

To all,

We have replaced a creep with a clown. The same "interests" who backed the Conservatives, now have a front-man in this perverted amalgam of John Jr. (only the looks) & Dubya (barely the brain). His name is Justin Trudeau.

He has promised such policy innovations as:
- Shit-talking Vladimir Putin "to his face" (I am looking forward to this the most)
- Declaring "BDS" (boycotts of Israeli companies and products) as expressions of anti-semitism.
- Where the Liberal Party once allowed Catholic members of parliament to vote according to their faith on social issues...he has revoked their ability to even abstain (obey or perish).
- Approving of the TPP trade deal without having read the text.
- Allowing mass immigration as favours to ethnic voters.
- Those complaining about the out-sized influence of oil lobbyists will be glad to know that all corrupt "backroom" deals are now carried out in front of the camera.

Of course, the Canadian public did not vote for any of this. They held the image of the crying son at his father's funeral to heart. He has been pampered ever since. To the detriment of our nation.

All hail Joffrey Baratheon!,
Paul

Paul Escobar

Ken Roberts,

Re: "there is no POTUS here"

False. The Liberal party was elected based on JT's name & image alone. They would have been eliminated from the political map otherwise. What he says goes.

Of course, he has never been capable of saying much. And what he says has always been dictated by his handler GM Butts. It is the same sort of comedic relationship Dubya had with Cheney. And Butts is a BORG man - down to the wiring.

smh,
Paul

Castellio

Good summary, but perhaps you miss the most important plank. There was a clear commitment to break from "austerity thinking".

FB Ali

Well, well, well - quite a rant there, Mr Escobar!

You obviously don't like Justin Trudeau!

I wonder where you're coming from. Are you one of the diehards of the Bloc Quebecois, whose nose the Liberals rubbed in the mud last night? Or, are you one of those Marxist-Leninists who popped up on every Toronto ballot - and none of whom got even 10 votes?

Joe

Not quit but close. He will raise taxes on the "rich" - those of use between $75,000 to $300,000 a year not in a union and will use the money to fund social programs for more third world immigration. Like the US, the real rich 0.01% will not see any tax increases. Note the immigrant rich areas tend to vote Liberal as they like government programs.

Trudeau speaks terribly - but will learn to get better with practice. As far as divisive, we have to wait and see. Last time the Liberals were in power they almost lost Quebec (Chretien) and P Trudeau lost the west for 25 years. It appears division does not include geographical to many pundits, and only Harper is divisive in spite of the accomplishment of unifying the Reform and PC.

Harper's problem is that he is an asshole and would not work with others. He had no bench - and "Harper government" has become synonymous for "government of Canada." Part of the reason he wanted a weak team was he was afraid of being shown up. All of the ministers with potential - Prentice, Baird, McKay etc.. quit, leaving him with another asshole, Jason Kenney, as his right hand man. Too bad they did not lose their seats.

Policy wise Harper pretty much kissed up to the US at every opportunity and we did not get our pipeline. (Keystone) Back when Pierre was prime minister we did not get the Alyeska pipeline either. (The Alyeska pipeline should have been built though the McKenzie Delta, but it would not have touched enough Alaska hands.) The moral of the story is US internal issues tend to trump relationships with Canada, regardless of parties in power. Remember Canadian politics is not American politics and the parties do not cross lines easily.

Ian Welsh is mistakenly blaming Harper for the decline of Ontario Manufacturing, bit Mr Welsh wants to ignore the effects of China's entry into the WTO. Ontario's industrial base is getting clobbered for similar reasons the Rust Belt is getting clobbered. Makes better story to blame Harper though. The de-industrialization of Ontario is a concern, and I hope Trudeau is able to help reverse some of it.

Over at Crooked Timber they are complaining that Harper has been mean to aboriginals. How about Harper is reflecting his base? Funny that those in rural areas and us downtown that get to deal with aboriginals on a regular basis have no love for them unlike suburbanites. Of course there are lots of aboriginal issues, and I will make a prediction that Trudeau will not spend any money nor will the problems go away. I will still worry about being mugged in 5 years on my walk home in the winter dark.

Sorry for the long post but sometimes local politics and personalities influence elections more than global trends, and I believe this is the case.

Ryan

"Bravo! - I think... pl"

It depend if this election causes people like David Frum and Charles Krauthammer to return to the land of their birth, Canada. There they can render the same sort of service they've rendered to America.

Seriously, Krauthammer said a short while ago that with Harper's loss that Israel had lost its best friend and supporter in the world so this many turn out well in the long run. If Chuck is upset this is a positive development.

Ken Roberts

It's fascinating how many different perspectives there are on the same set of events, present or past! Some rough guidelines I use when trying to sort thru the various interpretations and alternative scenarios:

-- Politics is like washing dishes (or other housework). You can wash all the dishes, have everything clean in the cabinet. But, used as intended, there are going to be more dirty dishes appearing daily. Just deal with it! Don't let the prospect (reality) of future dirty dishes spoil the dinner you are preparing for your guests.

-- We work with the people and situations around us. Try to pick people who are more able than ourselves, for roles which are more demanding than our own capabilities. Often choose badly. But one must choose. And, given time and seized fortunate opportunity, even a large trend can be altered.

-- It is important not to confuse platform with policy, or with governing. We elect, or should elect, people who can respond appropriately to emergent facts which were not anticipated, or were just on the horizon, as of election time.

I've heard a bit about JT from others who've met him, and read a few early words, that I believe he is a decent choice among the available alternatives. It may be that you are right and I am wrong. Time will tell. Yesterday evening's election results were better, from my perspective, than I thought probable.

Anyway, not going to pursue this topic further as it is drifting off focus re SST. Best wishes, kr.


Paul Escobar

FB Ali,

You are an intelligent man. You will be one of the first to discern the shadow and impending backstab.

I dislike the *phenomenon* of Justin Trudeau because most others will be too lost in fantasy to ever see it coming...even if it came straight at them.

I support policies and individuals of character, not any political parties. FWIW, I support Patrick Brown in Ontario. I also thought, though flawed on some policies, Thomas Mulcair would have made a decent PM.

Best,
Paul

William R. Cumming

Is trade with Canada still almost 40% of the entirety of US trade? Is Canada in the TPP?

IMO the Arctic is the most important policy arena for Canada on the World Stage!

William R. Cumming

wiki extract:

Canada (/ˈkænədə/) is a country, consisting of ten provinces and three territories, in the northern part of the continent of North America. It extends from the Atlantic to the Pacific and northward into the Arctic Ocean, covering 9.98 million square kilometres (3.85 million square miles) in total, making it the world's second-largest country by total area and the fourth-largest country by land area. Canada's common border with the United States forms the world's longest land border.


And not yet 40M in population and residents? 90% of Canadians live within 150 miles of US border?

Will

yep, Keynesian economics has its uses although it's not helping Japan right now. Krugman has been very persuasive that austerity doesn't work. There's also a great book "Animal Spirits" by Robert J. J. Shiller and George A. Akerlof (who is married to the Fed chairwoman) on this topic.

this is good stuff- a rap debate b/n Keynes and Hayek
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc

Will

Zykes, you left out Ted Cruz!

johnf

Canada to withdraw jets from IS battle

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/us_and_canada

Paul Escobar

JohnF,

You will see many more of these meaningless, but highly symbolic policies implemented in the early days (when attention is at its peak).

More than a decade ago, I watched the Liberal strategist Duffy (not the blimp senator) explain that his reading of demographic research indicated that the NDP would be the key threat to the party in the near future. The brass dismissed him...and of course, he was soon proven right.

That is why you see Trudeau praise communism, push pot legalization, and speak flippantly about deficits. These are cheap symbolic ways of capturing metropolitan NDP voters - who have no clue that Tommy Douglas stood for the exact opposite.

Best,
Paul

Paul Escobar

Ryan,

They would have a receptive audience in our new government.

Our new leader believes that Canada must take a "firm stance against" Palestinian activism - and ensure that Jews are never made to feel "unsafe" from perfectly legitimate and peaceful forms of demonstration.

Prince Joffrey, in all his glory:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qRffU_y2kY
https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/576465632884981760

Note that this matches up perfectly with Harper & Israel's agreement to: “work together to oppose efforts to single out or isolate Israel by developing a coordinated public diplomacy initiative to oppose boycotts of Israel, to oppose those who call into question the Jewish state’s right to exist and to work to counter the boycott, divestment and sanctions movement.”

Best,
Paul

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