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29 October 2015

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The Beaver

One little news:

Dan Senor's wife : Campbell Brown used to be the "friend" of the Chihuahua aka the playboy in DC when he was at the Saudi Embassy (from when he was a PR flack up to his promotion to Ambassador)

BostonB

Here's a cartoon regarding the blimp fiasco: https://mobile.twitter.com/nukes_of_hazard/status/660101586232975361/photo/1

turcopolier

Wyoming

Entertaining piece. IMO IS and the rest of the jihadi scum (including our nusra, etc. pets) will have a hard time giving up the notion of creation in the Arabian peninsula of god's kingdom on earth. This makes them want to stand and fight. Bravo! stick with it, asakir allah! stick with it! after all, to die in jihad is to have a straight trip "home" with none of that nasty business about the torture of the grave whilst awaiting the last judgment. and then, there are all those lovely foreign jihadis waiting to be "processed" for their voyage to paradise. Those fellows will have a hell of a time trying to extricate themselves even if they want to. I am in favor of a program of instant re-education for captured jihadis. IMO they are like the "reivers" in the film "serenity." What is it that Sheridan said? pl

The Beaver

Latest news, still evolving :

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34681648

"President Obama to send up to 50 special operations forces to Syria to co-ordinate fight against IS - US officials"

turcopolier

All

Maybe Dan Senor didn't need hormone treatments? BTW we will start a new war game the day after the Turkish election. pl

Jack Tarr

"The only good jihadi is a dead jihadi" P. Sheridan (or close to that)

Patrick Bahzad

Thx for the link,

Asia Times does interesting pieces sometimes. Haven't read it all yet, so just my five cents on some points:
- R+5 is not after defeating ISIS militarily. They want to push them further into the Syrian desert maybe, and right back into Iraq, making it a headache for the Americans and current Iraqi government. Given current constraints on US involvement, which seem to be moving all of a sudden ("boots on the ground" and combat operations), any worsening of the ISIS situation in Iraq and Baghdad might be tempted to call in the Russian cavalry, if the US proves unable to up their game.
- ISIS will definitely not abandon neither Raqqa (nor Mosul in Iraq) without putting up a fight. Now Raqqa is not as important as Mosul to them, strategically, so they may not want to hold the city at any cost. But to believe they will just vanish into the desert and let the YPG and Euphrates Volcanos, or "Syrian Democratic Forces" march in, is just plain silly
- Aleppo and most of NW Syria will fall and be under R+5 control, there is no doubt about that in my mind. Why the AT journalist would come to think, they might turn Aleppo into another Grozny is a mystery to me ... They sqeeze the life out of the rebels in the city, that's all. First got to secure the surroundings, expand their perimeter, join with the Shia enclave north-west of Aleppo and then seal off the old city. Very medieval siege tactic actually.

Patrick Bahzad

I wouldn't bet my shirt on ISIS holding that LOC for very long. Looks more like their one and only LOC into Syria is seriously at risk. They will soon be out of Khanasser and surroundings and redeploy for another assault on Safirah, where SAA and Hezbollah have actually launched an air-mobile deployment of infantry behind ISIS lines earlier today.

Joe100

TTG, etc. - will these be SOC "door kickers" or real special forces - as has been recommended repeatedly here?

Fred

PB,

So ISIS stuck they heads into a pocket which will soon be a noose?

FB Ali

Yes, that would have been just right. Though I understand why your basic instincts caused you to refrain - it could sound a bit unkind!

As a former Washington playboy he fits right into his present role, what with Saudi princes getting arrested in LA for sexual and physical abuse, and having their planes impounded in Beirut because they were found loaded with drugs.

I am heartened by the increasing number of predictions that the royals are going to implode in internal strife. Can't wait for it to happen!

fjdixon

Perhaps even more ‘all about Saudi Arabia’ . . . reawakening the Saudi – Rashidi feud. Article on PYD and ‘Arab’ allies (of the famed 50 ton weapons drop).
“Sheikh Humaydi says his goal is to lead a Shammar tribal uprising against the Islamic State “to liberate Syria, Iraq and beyond.” But he also wants to carry on a 2-century-old struggle against conservative Wahabi Islam, which he said destroyed the last Shammar emirate, and he favors the breakup of Saudi Arabia, where the puritanical sect dominates. “We are already working on that,” he said.”

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/middle-east/article41559747.html#storylink=cpy

fd

Fred

Col.,

"BTW we will start a new war game the day after the Turkish election."

Same general instructions as before?

turcopolier

fred

More or less. pl

FB Ali

In his latest article, Alastair Crooke (of Conflicts Forum) discusses the conundrum Obama faces in respect of his 'foreign policy legacy'. He sums it up thus:

"When the neo-cons shaped G.W. Bush’s policies by taking aim at the secular-nationalist states, they also explicitly tied America to the kings and Emirs of the Gulf (as Wurmser explicitly acknowledges). More seriously, they also left Obama with the complicated legacy of ambivalency towards radical Sunni Islam: On the one hand, a bogey to be feared, and on the other, a tool to be used against the Ba’athists, Nasserists, Soviets and Iranians et alii. It is this ambivalence, its feeble war on ‘terrorism’, which is so embarrassing the US in Syria today......

Can Obama risk entering a confrontation with the neo-cons, to save America from prospective confrontation with China and Russia?"

different clue

Trey N,

I am not sure Saudi bankruptcy will happen all by itself. I suspect people who want to see it happen will have to help it happen by near-fanatical pursuit of energy conservation measures in all the countries in which people who want to see it happen are living.

Such people will have to demonstrate all the energy conservation they can in their own personal lives so as to have the personal credibility-on-display to be able to get a hearing if/when they start telling their societies what "must be done" to achieve energy (and especially oil) conservation when millions of individual actions prove to be not enough by themselves.

Because if things are left to themselves, and KSA imposes price-discipline on various non-conventional oil producers in less than 5 years, they will then be free to re-raise the price wherever they need it to be to avoid bankruptcy. In other words, they may not go bankrupt on their own. They may need to be helped along the way.

different clue

Ishmael Zechariah,

The problem is, if we "delendafy" the KSA, what takes its place? The jihadis themselves? Then what?

I still think The Twisted Genius has the better approach. We have to bankrupt them enough that they have zero influence beyond their borders, but not so much that they fall to ISIS or the Nusras or whomever.

Perhaps Putin will indeed encourage all the hackers of the Former Soviet Space to go after Saudi money reserves wherever they are. I don't think any Chinese hackers would join in because China hopes to make big money selling stuff to KSA in the long run.

Ishmael Zechariah

DC,
"The problem is, if we "delendafy" the KSA, what takes its place? The jihadis themselves? Then what?"
Well, who do you think is running KSA now?
Ishmael Zechariah

Trey N

Rumors persist of the big KSA oilfields rapidly playing out. With Iranian oil coming online post-sanctions (supply up) and the world economy in a tailspin (demand down), oil prices could very well stay low for years to come. It will be interesting to see if KSA can still play the role of "swing producer" and impose discipline on the world oil market. Personally, I doubt that they can -- which means they are in a world of hurt with their Yemen war, financing the liver-eaters in Syria/Iraq and above all else the need to maintain their domestic welfare state draining their coffers.

The KSA elite have sown the winds of chaos in neighboring countries for decades now. It's gonna be fun watching them reap the whirlwinds as the chaos chickens come home to roost....

different clue

Ishmael Zechariah,

I mean even more overtly jihadis. The Nusras or Wahhabis or ISIS their very own selves. People who will use the oil and money in a much more focused and sincere way to wage all the jihad they possibly can. At least the Saudis themselves drain off huge amounts of money on solid gold this-and-that, dancing girls, gambling vacations at all the famous casinos, supporting thousands of non-productive Saudi-family members and allies, etc. Imagine all those people cut off or killed and all that money going to jihad by people who totally mean it.

YT

I'm a "rug rat..." :(

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