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22 October 2015

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Babak Makkinejad

confusedponderer:

That is the real issue; neither Kurd nor Turk can trust that the Turkish government agents have not been complicit in the suicide bombings against Kurds.

But very many Kurds are also to be blamed; 40 years of war - like ETA in Spain - and only dead bodies to show for all of that. All those young Kurdish Marxist-Leninist-Maoist living in the Lala Land and killing and dying for a cause that one may honestly describe as both unreachable as well as utterly and completely rubbish.


Will

yep, democracy is not all that it's cracked up to be. I love it when in Turtledove's ww2 alien invasion novel, the lizards call it "snout counting." The strongest argument that Charles II made to regain the monarchy was that the King was constitutionally restrained, but that a Protector like Cromwell had unlimited powers. Erdogan is another would be Cromwell. (leaving out Hitler, for now)

this is interesting:
"The political doctrine of anacyclosis (or anakyklosis from Greek: ἀνακύκλωσις) is a cyclical theory of political evolution. The theory of anacyclosis is based upon the Greek typology of constitutional forms of rule by the one, the few, and the many. Anacyclosis states that three basic forms of "benign" government (monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy) are inherently weak and unstable, tending to degenerate rapidly into the three basic forms of "malignant" government (tyranny, oligarchy, and ochlocracy). Note that "ochlocracy" refers to mob rule, not the concept of democracy created in the late 18th century.
According to the doctrine, "benign" governments have the interests of all at heart, whereas "malignant" governments have the interests of a select few at heart. However, all six are considered unworkable because the first three rapidly transform into the latter three due to political corruption."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anacyclosis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyklos

 Ishmael Zechariah

CP,
Re: "After several successive electoal victories, Erdoğan’s AKP lost its absolute majority the first time since 2002 in the last elections, with the Kurds scoring a surprising 13% of the vote." Do you know how this 13% was achieved?

Ishmael Zechariah

confusedponderer

IZ,
"Do you know how this 13% was achieved?"

I don't and I'd be grateful for insights.

Ishmael Zechariah

CP,
The current election code of Turkey is designed to marginalize all with less than 10% of the vote. HDP was "loaned" votes from CHP to put it over the 10% barrier in a number of important cities. The tayyiban are counting on this not happening again-and they may prove to be correct. The 60% in Turkey need to come together and kick these bastards out. A coup really is not the answer. An election followed by trials is.

BTW, the show Merkel performed with tayyip was surprising.
Ishmael Zechariah

Will

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_June_2015#Issues_and_developments

looking at the maps, it appears that Erdogan's strength is in the rural Anatolian hinterland. The other two major groupings are 1) urban center and 2) south east Kurdish Turkey.

The Kurds may not turn out in large numbers as before in this November election. The Urban centers will still vote. Erdogan may yet get his majority.

confusedponderer

Re: Merkel - desperation, IMO.

Erdoğan really is the one at fault for a good deal of the refugee crisis but also, however annoying that is, the one in the key position to do something about it, something he will try to leverage to the fullest, and milk for domestic PR.

Back in the summer he wanted not just the safe zone, but 3 billion Euro to boot. He got neither, and we got the refugees. And then he got a rematch.

Edit: Actually, here is in detail what he demands now:

"... around €3 billion ($3.4 billion) in aid, via an EU trust fund. Visa-free travel for Turks inside the EU’s Schengen zone, another big prize, may be granted next year, if Turkey agrees to readmit illegal third-country migrants who reach Europe via its territory. Perhaps most strikingly, the leaders agreed last night to “re-energise” Turkey’s long-stalled bid to join the EU."

I wanna retch. It continues:

"Many details remain to be filled in, and some governments are hostile. Austria and Cyprus remain sceptical about accelerating Turkey’s membership bid, for example. A further Turkish demand—to be placed on a list of “safe countries of origin”, meaning that the small number of Turkish nationals seeking asylum in the EU would struggle to obtain it—also faces opposition from some European governments"

And rightly so.

http://tinyurl.com/pkfoln9

Babak Makkinejad

My impression has been that at the start of campaign to destroy the Syrian Arab Republic, certain promises had been made to Turkey which were left unfulfilled.

Likely, Erdogan thought of himself as having been tricked.

Now, he is playing hardball with those whom he considers to have tricked him.

Kunuri

Will, If I know the Kurds, they are not cowed easily, in my furtive imagination they are like the Irish of Turkey. They are rebellious by nature, and not dumb. Expect an unusual turnout in southeast Turkey and a complete rout for AKP.

Kunuri

Yes BM, he expected Assad to let free the Muslim Brotherhood and Ihvan adherents within Syria. It was a no go for Assad, so RTE just got pissed off and decided to off him. Still sticks to it, see, its all personal, like the southern turn of Hitler from the suburbs of Moscow to deprive Stalin of the city of his namesake. That's how megalomaniacs behave.

Kunuri

Merkel was set up, when will they ever learn. Those tacky thrones and all, why give this despot a light of a the day? Don't they know they are encouraging him and enabling him to do even worse? Why would they even take him seriously as a head of state? HE HAS NO POWERS UNDER TURKISH CONSTITUTION TO NEGOTATE ANYTHING!

Kunuri

Sorry IZ, but the loaned votes to HDP are no longer needed to keep them in the parliament. The Kurdish body public is energized to see HDP as their only hope to any kind of legitimate representation. They will sweep wide swaths of votes from AKP, the undecided and politically apathetic.

confusedponderer

"HE HAS NO POWERS UNDER TURKISH CONSTITUTION"

Yet.

Already, Davatoglu is just his placeholder. Everybody, not just Merkel, negotiating with Erdoğan only makes this clearer. In essence Erdoğan is already living the powers he imagines his future office to hold, after the referendum.

confusedponderer

Kunuri,
as they say in German: "Ihr Wort in Gottes Ohr ..."

I hope you're right.

Stonevendor

"...the Irish of Turkey." I thoroughly enjoy reading the featured pieces and comments on this site. Many are so well thought out, so informative, and thought provoking on my part. But, Kunuri, this has to be one of the most delightful comments I have encountered here. I conjure up images of Kurds tossing down an ale, and then dancing off to the polls accompanied by stings, whistles and drums. I wish you, and your Kurdish friends, the best of luck in the upcoming election and I am sure my distant relatives in County Cork would do so also.

turcopolier

Stonevender

"... this has to be one of the most delightful comments I have encountered here." Well, how condescending you are... pl

Ryan

This article from Bloomberg News is related to the ongoing mess today in an indirect manner. There is a small skirmish going on in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of the southern Caucasus Mountains between Azerbaijan and Armenia that dates back to 1994. Nagorno-Karabakh is mostly Christian and doesn't wish to be a part of Azerbaijan. As a result, there has been off and on fighting for years between the two. Turkey supports Azerbaijan while Russia is attempting to mediate between the two combatants while selling weapons to both. Russia and Turkey are both watching this region closely.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/frozen-war-thaws-in-russian-backyard-as-nagorno-karabakh-flares?cmpid=yhoo.headline

At one point around ten years ago I read that Russia had a motor rifle division stationed in Armenia and a fighter wing. The divison has probably been replaced with a brigade as part of the Russian Army's reorganization.

Ryan

Good article, CP.

I like this gem you found:

"seen against the background of his recent behaviour, Mr Erdogan’s plans for a strong presidency are troubling. He has dismantled checks on his power."

Mr. Erdogan is a man after Dick Cheney and Bill Kristol hearts.

Ishmael Zechariah

Kunuri,
I posted the "vote loan" as a matter of historical record. It is important for the Committee to have the correct information behind the recent 13%. HDP had never exceeded 7% before, and the loaned votes were the main factor in their performance in the last election- quite a few tayyipist big wigs lost because of that. Maybe HDP's performance in the upcoming election will be better-we will see.
I am not as sanguine as you are about the future. HDP's unholy alliance with the illegal tayyiban government is one factor-quite a few ethnic Kurds who are loyal the Turkish Republic detest HDP and the PKK.
Be safe.
Ishmael Zechariah

Babak Makkinejad

Do you know or understand why Kurds are not attracted to Liberalism?

All those young and not-too-old people with Communist flags; why do they not support the principles of a Liberal Order?

Would that not be a more workable and beneficial political platform for them?

LeaNder

A threshold of 10% versus the 5% we have, surely has an impact on voters. I noticed it, he way wondering about its legal history. ;)

Electable parties, nutshell programs in the upcoming election?

LeaNder

"tossing down an ale"

dark ale, I avoid the brand, with exactly the right type of stiff foam you can write your initials on/in and they still show in the remnants of foam on the bottom of your glass, was the wisdom I was told. ;)

LeaNder

Ok, I didn't get it. Maybe?? I concentrated on the good luck. And strictly I wouldn't assume Kunuri has a Kurdish background. Should I?

Kunuri

Keine sorge, LeaNder, I am a mix of many genes, but product of several cultures and upbringing. My loyalties lie with humanity and those who are just.

Stonevendor

I'm sorry if you took offense. I meant what I said about this being a site with thought provoking content. But, let's face it, there is also a lot grim news. Kunurl's "furtive imagination" brought a smile.

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