A possible Russian campaign plan in Syria

The US Government continues to resemble a petulant child who, having dominated the schoolyard, is faced with another child who takes control of a game.  The petulant one then announces that the new kid is cheating and walks away from the scrum. 

Ridiculous. 

IMO Russia+allies (R+5) [Russia+SAG+Hizbullah+YPG Kurds+Iran +Iraq] have an opportunity to reverse the jihadi threat to the Syrian government and the region.

Steps to be taken by R+5:

- Continue to reinforce Russian air capabilities in NW Syria.   Harden air bases to make it obvious to the Israelis or anyone else that it would not be an easy thing to take Jack (Ripper) Keane's advice to crater all the runways that the Russians are using or may use.

- Continue to coordinate and support Syrian, Hizbullah and IRGC force in drives to eliminate the insurgent pocket north of Homs and along a broad front to the NE of Latakia for the purposes of chewing up rebel forces and effecting the relief of Aleppo.

- The Homs area operation is important because success will re-open the north/south axis that is needed for national coherence.

- IMO Russia will need to bring an armor heavy ground task force into the country to act as  stiffening for its combined offensive operations.

- Relief of Aleppo would inevitably lead to direct combat with IS forces north and east of Aleppo, the Russian commander should be forward planning for that development.

-  As TTG wrote today a YPG Kurd alliance with Russia is an option that should be earnestly pursued by the Russians. 

- Deep planning for Iraq should be underway in anticipation of success in Syria.  pl

Comments

[Thomas]

At a Formula One Grand Prix before the start of the formation lap the TV broadcaster superimposes an advertisement for the host country on the front straight.

During Sunday's Russian Gran Prix it was "Sochi, We Get It Done."

[Ishmael Zechariah]

DC,

You should compare the concepts of "Nation" and "Ummah". They are pretty much mutually exclusive. Gen. Ali or BM would be able to explain it better.
Ishmael Zechariah
P.s: tayyip is playing the nationalism card now to get votes from MHP; Some of his followers even removed the word "Turkish" from some government buildings.

[Babak Makkinejad]

They are more loyal, however.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Katyusha: the diminutive of Catherine - indicating a degree of endearment & intimacy.

[Medicine Man]

Thanks for the context Mr. Habakkuk. It had occurred to me that the name was perhaps neither a coincidence or a dark joke. That said, I do appreciate the modern Russian sense of humor. Very dark and (self) deprecating. I think there was a thread on SST at one point that had folks here swapping Russian jokes they'd heard.

[Yeah, Right]

Not sure why Pat didn't put up my previous effort, but I wanted to say thanks for that concise answer.

Agree that this is all hypothetical.

But I note that "b" on his website quotes this exchange from McClatchy:
"U.S. officials hope the YPG will now turn its attention to Raqqa," ...
... "But PYD spokesman Can said the Kurdish group’s first priority is to link the Kurdish enclave of Afrin, northwest of the Syrian city of Aleppo, with Kobani, the Kurdish enclave northeast of Aleppo."

If we take that at face-value (yes, I know, I know) then that suggests two things:
a) The Kurds are indeed planning to slam that door shut, and
b) The Kurds have stopped taking orders from Washington.

Or not.

But it would be extraordinary for US officials to be dropping weapons in the "hope" that the recipients then does the right thing by Washington. Obama-style Audacity Indeed.

Maybe Trump should send him a signed copy of The Art Of The Deal with a note that says "get it in writing before you deliver the goods".

[turcopolier]

Ishmael zakariya

You didn't ask me but as the Arabic teacher here I will tell you that "qawm" in Arabic means "nation" signifying an ethnic people and "ummah" means the generality of mankind under God's rule, i.e., the Islamic world polity. As we know Arabic is the base language in the Islamic world. pl

[Yeah, Right]

"Perhaps you mind has been badly affected by the COIN nonsense of the last decade."

I would think that would be better expressed as a question, not as a statement.

Because I can answer that question: No.

"A large mobile force composed of well equipped ground forces and with sufficient air support can proceed from the Latakia are to Aleppo killing and capturing non IS jihadis and various CIA supported unicorns until Aleppo is relieved. That means freed of the present siege."

I never had the slightest misunderstanding about all of that.

"Such a force can then proceed eastward until it reaches the YPD Kurds. In the process a great many IS jihadis could be processed into used people."

That's the bit that I didn't understand, since it seems to assume that the jihadists would follow your script and allow themselves to be pushed eastward towards Kobane.

Isn't it much more likely that those jihadists would flee northward towards the safety of Gaziantep? After all, according to that map there is a big bolt-hole to the north.

"unlike the situation in a COIN effort there would be no silliness about hearts and minds."

Nor did I ever suggest any such silliness.

All I suggested is that the Russians might want to shut that northern bolt-hole before striking their hammer-blow in the direction of Aleppo-to-Kobane.

It seemed like a sensible idea to me. Still does.

Apparently not.....

"As someone said here the only good jihadi is a dead jihadi."

Indeed. But I would add that the best way to deaden him is to make sure he can't flee to Gaziantep wherein he will be immune to deadification.

Again, apparently not.....

[Fred]

Patrick,

Given airlift and supply constraints maybe a battalion to start? I'm sure someone could get creative with a forward helicopter base for refueling/rearming. It would sure extend the potential air attack operational area though the SAR capabilities might be stretched?

[Amir]

You can help, inform your congressman and write to them and demand appropriate action.

[turcopolier]

fred

Given the scale of the combat a battalion sized force would be a mere token and not useful for much except force protection around the base area. Something the size of a Motorized Rifle Division with its organic vehicles would be required to be really useful in the offensive campaign, not to take the place of the SAA, Iranians and Hizbullah but to act as the combined force's spine. Most of that would come by sea. pl

[turcopolier]

yeah, right

Once again you are talking tactics. I was talking campaign plan. Understand the difference? The follow on phase after the relief of Aleppo should be arranged to allow for whatever objectives are needed to kill and capture as many jihadis as possible. I don't know what you are talking about concerning the YPD and Raqqa. Is that a US desire? What has that to do with us at SST? If it becomes apparent to me that you are merely argumentative for th efun of it I will ban you. pl

[Fred]

Ishmael,

The not so polite version is that he's a veteran of the 101st keyboard commandos.

[Fred]

Col.,

Thanks for the response. In theory a second such unit could be supplied via the Caspian via Azerbaijan or Iran (though that is a far distance from this battle front.) and serve the same purpose? Assuming this got big enough to commit that many troops.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Colonel,
Thanks. I just wanted to make the point to SST that, for the islamists, belonging to the "ummah" was more important than belonging to a "quawm". To a nationalist Turk, a shamanist Turk has more claim to help than one of the "ummah" belonging to a different qawm. For the tayyiban, including tayyip, the opposite holds.
Ishmael Zechariah

[turcopolier]

fred

Ships are better, more dependable, bigger cube. mass counts. the more troops the better. pl

[Medicine Man]

A proud division: First into battle, the first out.