"A good plan violently executed" - TTG

Eric Draitser: Well, it’s certainly a complication, but I wouldn’t call it a setback, because naturally the Russian military planners and strategic analysts understood that this is precisely what would happen after the Russian bombing campaign began. They understood that the Islamic State terrorists would move their heavy weapons, would move some of their material into these populated areas, using human shields. This was well understood. But I think there is another angle to this that needs to be examined. Namely, this is the vindication of what President Putin said at the United Nations and what he said repeatedly in his public statements, namely, that no air campaign is going to be successful unless it is done in collaboration with the Syrian government. Namely, that there is a ground force that is going to be able to take on these terrorists who are going to do precisely what we’ve seen this footage showing them do. And this is really the only way to achieve any kind of success on the ground in Syria. Airstrikes are all well and good. They can do a tremendous amount of damage. They can disrupt and destroy a lot of the terrorists’ infrastructure, but when it comes to pinpoint targeting, precisely in these populated areas, this is going to require ground troops. And that’s where the Syrian Arab Army, perhaps also the Hezbollah forces, the others that are on the ground in Syria, where will use their partnership with Russia in order to actually achieve these objectives. And I think that in many ways, it needs to be understood as a major turning point here because the combination of airpower and ground forces is really what it’s going to take to wipe out Islamic State in Syria, as well as in Iraq. (RT)

***************************************

I don’t know who this kid is, but he certainly has his head on straight in this RT interview. His simple acknowledgement that a successful military action against IS requires a coordinated land, air and now sea campaign with clear goals is refreshing as is Russia’s and Syria’s deliberate execution of this plan. Cruise missiles from the Moskva and a, so far, successful SAA offensive north of Homs are the latest elements of this campaign. I’m also of the opinion that Russia’s introduction of a robust radio-electronic combat capability has added more to this fight than our intelligence services will ever admit. This has to be embarrassing to many professionals in our military… at least it should be.

As an aside, I just returned from a near total week long news blackout. I spent that time reinstalling a kitchen that I bought in Munich back in 1990. It sat unused in my basement in Stafford, Virginia since 1996. I managed to move it to Half Moon, New York piece by piece, straighten the warped butcher block counters and create a functional and damned nice looking kitchen in a cozy 60’s era ranch house. The physical exertion was invigorating as was the act of creating something with my hands. I listened to a local AM oldies radio station which only had a few minutes of news headlines every hour. No TV and only an occasional dose of internet to check email added to the monastic experience. I am refreshed, although I do feel a little like Rip Van Winkle. Spending time in a town named after Henrik hudson’s ship, I find this most appropriate. I highly recommend such an experience to all who can do so. 

TTG

Comments

[mbrenner]

When you move heavy weapons and related material into mosques and densely populated neighborhoods, don't you neutralize them as well as protect them?
In terms of city defense, there logically could be an advantage to that but of what benefit if facing a broad ground offensive in the vicinity?

Question: can movements of heavy weapons at night be concealed given today's technologies and the area's topography/weather? Or must we rely on caffeine fueled spotters?

[Matthew]

TTG: Does it really matter if the IS moves its heavy weapons into the cities? That retreat allows the SAA to retake the roads and the countryside and cutoff IS's resupply.

Interested to get your view--and the Colonel's on this.

[J]

TTG,
Reports surfacing isis are hiding in mosques to avoid Russian death from above or so they hope.

They forget the hunters are on the prowl

[The Twisted Genius]

mbrenner,

Given the state of night vision, thermal imagery and radars, darkness no longer offers effective concealment to a force that has those technologies.

[AbuAbdullah]

The point of this article about ISIS moving their weapons and changing their tactics is moot, because besides the fact that a tiny fraction of the new strikes are targeting ISIS, the USA have been bombing the group on a daily basis in Iraq since August 2014 and Syria since September 2014. Their tactics have been permanently amended since then with the ISIS use of heavy armor and quick and deep penetration/encirclement of enemy lines in the likes of what we saw with the IS drive to Erbil in August 2014 after the quick collapse of Kurdish lines(reminder that the city being surrounded with mobile artillery pieces was the very impetus for the start of the USA airstrikes, not the hysterical Yazidis On The Mountain story some of you may remember )being a thing of the past. Instead we see ISIS operating in small decentralized village-based groups, never more than a handful of hundred even for large offenses such as the taking of Ramadi and Palmyra.

[Babak Makkinejad]

An interpretation:

http://atimes.com/2015/10/obamaspeak-on-syria-new-wine-in-old-bottle/

[The Twisted Genius]

Matthew,

This action takes the initiative away from IS, at least temporarily. If the Russian air campaign remains aggressive and effective, even the new IS tactic of small unit assaults will become difficult. The long columns of IS technicals and street parades will quickly become a thing of the past. IS will revert to guerrilla tactics.

[turcopolier]

TTG

The Russians need to develop their plan to fruition fast enough to kill them before they do revert to guerrilla tactics. The question has arisen of what to do with surrendered jihadis. my preference would be that they should be handed over to the Syrian government for "re-education." pl

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

You're absolutely right on both counts. The government has had a re-education program in place for a while now. I'm sure there are different COIs in place depending on the mindsets of the surrendered jihadis. I get the distinct impression that Putin will do whatever it takes to see this through.

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

"re-education"

but but but what would those humanitarians say ?

http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2015/09/30/france-investigates-alleged-crimes-against-humanity-by-assad

or the pics from "Caesar' that were shown in one room at Turtle Bay last week.

Some do forget that Syria was a "good player" as far as the allies were concerned during the rendition years post 9/11.

[LeaNder]

Good to see up there again, TTG, food for thought.

hmm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halfmoon,_New_York

take care anyway, especially responses and associative thought lines or reminiscences.

[Tyler]

TTG,

Welcome back.

I assume the Russian approach to "out G the G" will be more effective than ours, uncluttered as they are by politically correct, blank slate Frankfurt School nonsense.

Like I told FB Ali, I think the Hama option remains on the table. I wonder if IS realises the Russian mindset is not the same as the Euro/US one and that them playing games with hiding behind civilians means very little?

[turcopolier]

Beaver

"Freedom is just another way of saying nothing left to lose." pl

[Patrick Bahzad]

Pat,

If you got time, check your mail. I got news for you regarding Syria and the other thing we talked about earlier. Great news in that regard actually ! PB

[Patrick Bahzad]

TTG,

You're right of course, but there are ways to circumvent detection by thermal imagery, radar et other satellite imagery (or drones for that matter). You know what I mean ...

Regarding hiding weaponry in mosques, it makes sense mostly when those places are far from the frontline. As you wait for airstrikes to end and then you might use or move them elsewhere.

If you're close to fronlines, ground operations may start soon, and the danger is, you won't be able to get to use those weapons before your enemy turns up and then you're basically f*ed.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Yeah well, we'll see. Let's not get over excited. Nothing here that hasn't happened before. besides, ISIS survived the surge, so careful with being over optimistic.
Those few airstrikes are not going to do the job, especially given the fact most of them didnt target ISIS.

[VietnamVet]

TTG,

Welcome back.

I am way off on the sidelines viewing the distorted reality that comes through corporate media. But, I am very afraid of an international incident with loaded planes flying sorties in the same theatre with the chain of command having opposing views about the Syrian government. The US government still covertly supplies “moderate” Sunnis and is still pushing for the overthrow of Assad. Russia has real restraints; long logistics lines, economic sanctions and collapsing oil and gas income. I believe Vladimir Putin has saved Assad. But, there is a big But.

He may have planned to get a peace settlement once a rump Syria is secured. But, there is no one to sign the peace treaty with him. The USA wants to keep blowing up sand to keep the money flowing to military contractors and to destabilize Russia. After years of war there are only hard core Sunnis left. They are true believers who rather go to paradise than dirty themselves with infidels. Russia does not have the troops or tanks in Syria to take Raqqa. Turkey and the Gulf Monarchies will never turn their backs on fellow Sunnis. As long as the jihadists are resupplied and have safe havens to regroup they will never be conquered. If the sand there is turned into glass, the culprit will have to deal with the wrath of the survivors of 1.6 billion Sunni Muslims.

I am reminded of the U.S. Marines wading ashore at Da Nang in 1965 given leis by young women wearing Ao Adi’s welcoming them to Vietnam.

[Yeah, Right]

A newbie question: does the Syrian Army + Hezbollah alone have enough troops to "actually achieve these objectives"?

I take it as axiomatic that the answer before the Russian air campaign began was "No".

But does that air campaign now tilt the playing field to such an extent that the answer is now "Yes, probably"?

Or is it still "No, probably not"?

[Stonevendor]

I don't doubt the Russians can drop all sorts of ordnance from above. But so far it seems that most of the Russian ground personnel are either logistical, or providing base security. So who is it that will go in to route the IS on the ground? Other out of country actors? Possibly. The Syrian Army? One would imagine. But then will they have better luck against IS than the Iraqi Army? This may take quite some time. And should be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Tyler]

Stonevendor,

Quds (or whoever the Iranians have sent), HA, the "Polite Green Men".

I think its a mistake to handwave away the Syrian Army. That they've held up as long as they have with the events that have occurred against them speaks well of them. Parallels to the Russians at Barbarossa.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Iraq had no army.

[Valissa]

Another way to fight ...

Iran attacks ISIS & its ‘arrogant supporters’ with caricature competition (IMAGES) https://www.rt.com/news/262305-iran-anti-isis-cartoons/

[LeaNder]

"given leis by young women wearing Ao Adi’s welcoming them to Vietnam."

"given lies" given license? Obviously this is a stupid guess. Some "eastern" tradition, from my own rather narrow perception of a round world, of whatever with flowers?

Hmm, forget it, I will forget it anyway because I do not have enough context on my aging synapses.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/u-s-marines-land-at-da-nang
"the Marines were met by sightseers, South Vietnamese officers, Vietnamese girls with leis, and four American soldiers with a large sign stating: “Welcome, Gallant Marines.”

but you made me read this. ;)

[LeaNder]

oops, do I want to study the Vietnam war? Not really.

[The Twisted Genius]

LeaNder,

A lei is a necklace made of flowers often given in greeting on many Pacific islands.