"Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War?" - first published 11 April 2015

(Bandolero - My opinion has not changed - PL)

"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.

While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.

"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said."  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410

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IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen.  This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY.  SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations.  The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive.   On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located).  The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions.  In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents.  Egypt is dragging its feet.  The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US.  pl

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"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.

Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-air-war-struggles-to-make-gains-as-yemen-fragments/2015/04/09/1a045766-ddf6-11e4-b6d7-b9bc8acf16f7_story.html

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IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.

What could be more tempting?  pl 

25 September, 2015 - PS The Al-Saud have now persuaded their Gulfie princeling friends to commit troops to Yemen.  Are these troops actually Arabs from the Gulf?  Well, pilgrims, they can bleed together in the Yemeni mountains and deserts.  pl 

 

Comments

[fjdixon]

And it would seem their problems are not solely military:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/25/world/middleeast/saudis-seek-to-fend-off-un-inquiry-on-yemen.html?_r=0

[DH]

Then Almitra said, speak to us of mercenaries.

[FB Ali]

A recent report in the Egyptian al-Ahram paper on the ground "offensive" by the Saudis and their allies:

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/142099.aspx

[J]

Colonel, FBAli,

Did you see the latest where a member of the Royals is encouraging other members of the Royals (the entire Royal entourage) to oust the current King and his son. The Royal stirring the pot sees them as an embarrassment to the House of Saud.

Family feuds and coveting never ceases.

[b]

Collected just over the last few days (some vids may be double, didn't recheck)

Latest Saudi village to fall to #Yemen's Houthis is Qamar in Khobah, Jizan province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVJFKKwgpkA

New video of Houthi fighters's attack in Jizan. 1 M88 ARV, 1 M1A2S, 1 M2A2 IFV destroyed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E-sTDvpapM

some Saudi outpost in Jidzah, various destroyed vehicles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TD0Eu8NALY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUgnw3mc3FY

By @YemenForces : #Saudi Arabia military spokesman Assiri confirms 2 Saudi soldiers captured & 3 missing in #Yemen.
#Houthis showing two #SaudiArabia soldiers captured in Aseer. #Yemen. pic.twitter.com/3igiCUX65w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA6ZtlG4ErI

somewhere in Jidzah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUAWq2gYWhg

#UAE #Leclerc #MBT c/w Azur armour kit disabled (seems not ko'ed) at #Marib in #Yemen: no left track, ripped grilles
pic.twitter.com/g6bH0ePiV5

#Yemen | Pro-Saleh media : Surface to air missile has downed an Apache helicopter gunship in Safer, Marib province, killing both pilots.
#Yemen | Pro-Saudi media : Tehnical fault in Apache helicopter gunship caused crash landing in Safer, Marib province.
The downed Apache in #Mareb was a #UAE one not #Saudi , so the #UAE loses two more soldiers in their war against #Yemen #Hallelujah

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Ten days ago a UAE general announced that they would hang their flag from Marib dam the very next day. It is still not flying there.

The Saudis had hired some Marib tribes to fight the Houthis but when those tribes advanced they were bombed by Saudi pilots. This happened twice in three days last week. The tribals were pissed, turned around and attacked the Saudis/UAE soldiers behind their line. Lots of yelling ensued and some more people died.

It seems that there is about zero coordination on the ground. Needing air support the tribals have to ring up their boss who has to phone up Riyadh which somehow has to tell the pilots where to bomb. Without decent maps and such slow/unsafe communication the bombing inevitably misses the right point or timing.

Some guys with Kornets in difficult terrain will hold up all tanks that may try to get through to Sanaa. One would need mass bombing or mass artillery to suppress the ATGMs, clear the IEDs and prepare the ways for the ground troops. A three or four Division attack on Sanaa by capable troops from two directions might work. Below that - nada and a lot of hurt.

[different clue]

The best thing that could happen would be for KSA would be for the family dissidents to take over the rulership and reverse all the bad actions . . . war in Yemen, support for jihadis, etc.

The worst thing that could happen would be for jihadists to take over the entire Kingdom with all the oil and all the money. Think what they would do with that. It would make even more urgent the question of how to replace oil as a source of energy and delete oil from everybody's energy sources all over the world.

A trembly troubly outcome would be for KSA to break back up into its constituent provinces. Hijaz and maybe others could become better off if freed from Wahabbi oppression. Certainly the Eastern Shia petroprovince would be better off if it could avoid Wahabbi/jihadi rule. Perhaps the Wahabbis and jihadis could be confined
to Nejd and then Nejd could be surrounded with minefields and electrified razor wire fences and so forth.

[FB Ali]

The sooner this scum go, the better. What has enabled them to last so long (apart from bribing all and sundry, domestic and foreign) has been their unity. If this fractures, they won't last long.

The recent tragedy at the Hajj (nearly 800 pilgrims dead) will add to the strains. I wouldn't be surprised if the King's son, Prince Muhammad, tries to pin the blame on his rival, the Crown Prince, who was in-charge of the Hajj arrangements.

However, I've read a report that says the tragedy was caused by one of the exit routes being blocked because Prince Muhammad was passing that way. If true, the knives will be out in both factions.

Meanwhile, the family continues in its usual ways: a princeling has been arrested in Los Angeles for a "sexual offence" ( http://tinyurl.com/p9otcu8 )

[MartinJ]

The Saudi troops in Marib are playing the role of Remfs.
The Emiratis troops are slightly advanced of the Saudis.
There are newly recruited Yemeni expat workers slightly ahead of the Emiratis. They can drive the MRAPs.
Ahead of them are the Maribi tribals getting bombed by the air cover from their own side.
They are unable to coordinate because those doing the fighting are untrained tribal guys supported by poorly motivated Gulf-trained Yemenis. The Emiratis are professional but risk averse.
The frontline consists of a few hills. The Houthi troops are few in number but well motivated and appear to have dug in well and fortified their positions and the approaches with APMs and ATMs.
I expect the Houthis will eventually run out of ammo and water and the locals will take over the hills. The Saudis are also promising various other tribes in the areas around Sanaa lots of money to go against the Houthis. We shall see.
As the Maribi tribes have already said they're not going to Sanaa I wonder who is. I don't see the rest of this "army" getting there. The best hope to cause Sanaa to fall would be to infiltrate hundreds of fighters and have them rise up at the appointed time. I have heard nothing to suggest there are any more than a few dozen such cells operating.
I would be surprised if the Saudis oust the Houthis or Saleh. They have no one to fight their battles.

The question is what does defeat look like? And what will that do to the Kingdom?

[Bruce D]

Very interesting. In the first clip as the Arabic-speaking reporter walks down a line of destroyed Saudi vehicles he keeps repeating "Bradley . . . Bradley . . . Bradley".

[Babak Makkinejad]

I expect the worse there; 100 times worse than in Libya.

I have met a number of professional Saudi Arabians and I do not wish them ill; regardless of their government's policies in which they do not have any say.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think the only way they could go is by a foreign Sunni Muslim power ousting them: Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan come to my mind.

[Bandolero]

turcopolier

Thank you for the update.

[J]

Isn't that called Saudicide? Hmmmm their targeting skills are lacking aren't they?