« Quid Pro Quo Vadis | Main | Mike Hayden & Dennis Ross want Israel to have the MOP »

09 September 2015

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

ThePanzer

Big news this morning, 50 intel analysts have filed an IG complaint over the ISIS intel being watered down and/or cherry picked to fit the administrations approved narrative. One analyst describe the atmosphere as "Stalinist" for towing the party line. Here's the link to the daily beast article:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/09/exclusive-50-spies-say-isis-intelligence-was-cooked.html

I hope this gets some traction, congressional hearings need to happen.

J

TTG,

Meanwhile we can watch Танцуем Боби-боба at play and laugh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YpGD_Bzo7s

Margaret Steinfels

Israel jumps into the "Russians are in Syria" story, but for the moment no new info.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_RUSSIA_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Valissa

Thanks for the link! When I did on the 'ISIS Intelligence Was Cooked' I found two more articles of interest.

Pentagon investigates alleged doctoring of intelligence on anti-Isis progress http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/26/pentagon-investigates-alleged-doctoring-intelligence-anti-isis-progress

The above article sources a NY Times article, which includes some background on the DIA...
Inquiry Weighs Whether ISIS Analysis Was Distorted http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/26/world/middleeast/pentagon-investigates-allegations-of-skewed-intelligence-reports-on-isis.html
The Defense Intelligence Agency was created in 1961, in part to avoid what Robert McNamara, the Secretary of Defense at the time, called “service bias.” During the 1950s, the United States grossly overestimated the size of the Soviet missile arsenal, a miscalculation that was fueled in part by the Air Force, which wanted more money for its own missile systems.

During the Vietnam War, the Defense Intelligence Agency repeatedly warned that even a sustained military campaign was unlikely to defeat the North Vietnamese forces. But according to an internal history of the agency, its conclusions were repeatedly overruled by commanders who were certain that the United States was winning, and that victory was just a matter of applying more force.

“There’s a built-in tension for the people who work at D.I.A., between dispassionate analysis and what command wants,” said Paul R. Pillar, a retired senior Central Intelligence Agency analyst who years ago accused the Bush administration of distorting intelligence assessments about Iraq’s weapons programs before the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003.

“You’re part of a large structure that does have a vested interest in portraying the overall mission as going well,” he said.

Swami Bhut Jolokia

I don't know about Congressional hearings, as they will quickly turn partisan have no probative value. Much better to call for the IG to complete the investigation fast and make the report public.

Then let Congress bloviate all it wants.

Edward

I think they have to understand the implications but just don't care.

Matthew

Paul: The defenders of Pussy Riot would drop them in an instant if they pulled one of their stunts at a synagogue or a historically black church.


Matthew

You mean like "Plan B" on Iran, where Congress starts imposing new sanctions on Iran over "human rights" and "terrorism"? Confusing of course since the Congress is cheerleading Saudi Arabia's murdering of civilians in Yemen and its abysmal treatment of women and minorities in the Kingdom.

turcopolier

Valissa

"“There’s a built-in tension for the people who work at D.I.A., between dispassionate analysis and what command wants,” said Paul R. Pillar, a retired senior Central Intelligence Agency analyst." Pillar is a hypocrite about this and still playing the CIA game of denigrating the other agencies in the IC. In fact, CIA is in exactly the same position and has endlessly slanted its analysis to please the White House. pl

Old Microbiologist

Excellent point. Even the Putin haters in Russia are supportive and realize that only Russia and possibly China (although recent events indicate a softening of resolve). I think most intelligent people of the world, with the exception of the exceptional people in the USA, understand that a unipolar world is a bad idea. The BRICS are holding together despite Washington's pressure and as it was stated earlier the KSA is committing suicide. Apparently, very few people remember the Sarin used in Syria was manufactured in the KSA and as an old Chem/Bio officer who did an awful lot of in the field detection, the results of the GC-MS was obfuscated much like the investigation of MH-17 (another story). The Borg is failing miserably and yes, I believe it is like a cornered beast and will do whatever it can to survive.

ThePanzer

I think the opposite, the IG will likely whitewash, sandbag, or bury it. (I'm biased coming from an Air Force background where it seemed the IG's main role was to act as a safety valve to let whistleblowers vent and then slowroll whatever issue was there until it fell off the radar)

It's true congressional hearings may not have probative value in and of themselves, but I value it more for putting CENTCOM brass under public scrutiny and potentially into the public spotlight to explain what's going on. With any luck they point the finger up the food chain rather than fall on their swords for the golfer in chief.

oofda

Not to forget the C.I.A.'s grubbing the work of other agencies and claiming them as their own.

different clue

I have just run across a story purporting to show that the Erdogists have unleashed their mass-terrorist riot-mobs against non-Erdogists all over Turkey.
If this story is correct as reported, would these events leave Erdogist Turkey in a better or worse position for increasing its support to ISIS, Nusra, etc. across its border with Syria?
http://99getsmart.com/nights-of-terror-strike-turkey-as-far-right-mobs-attack-opposition-and-citizens/

And would it give Russia "more" time or "less" time to help SAR get prepared for whatever comes next?

turcopolier

oofda

Yes, there are no copyrights in the IC. pl

Joe100

TTG -

I was somewhat awestruck reading the description of Russia's airborne forces (50,000 troops plus serious heavy weapons and mobility!) in the link below, which are clearly unique globally. It would appear that Russia is fully capable of pulling off your scenario. The embedded promo video is also a great watch.

http://thesaker.is/a-look-into-the-modern-russian-airborne-forces/

Old Microbiologist

You make some good points and it all comes back to failed US foreign policy. In many ways we are on the 4th term of Bush as little has changed in any meaningful way. What I fear is this is the tip of the iceberg. In some ways the refugee situation was in part caused by Turkey blocking the flow of water into Syria (much as we did to Mexico). Then you have regions with altered ethnic minorities. Many of the refugees are young men who refuse to fight ISIS in support of the Kurds who now control the area they lived in so they left the country instead of fighting the real foe. What I see is a failure of the people in Syria to rally to the cause and fight the existential threat of ISIS/Al Qaeda. I also believe this is the beginning of mass exoduses of peoples who have nothing moving en masse into regions where the people have relatively everything. They believe it is their god given right to come and take what they never earned and that they must be treated humanely meaning given equal rights which they didn't fight for in the first place. So, in some way we are rewarding cowardice. That is assuming these young, fit, beardless males, are not actually ISIS in the first place. Refusal of fingerprints and destruction of passports should be a clear warning sign on top of their militancy when challenged to follow the rules.

Kunuri

Will never happen, Erdogan is in deep cahoots with Putin, why, Putin just sold him a multi, multi billion dollar, useless Nuclear Plant, latest Russian technology(!), and to be built entirely by Russians on Turkish Mediterranean coast, including a naval port, where Russians can use as they please. Almost a second supply station for Russian assets in the Mediterranean. No oversight, no accountability, no information on the deal. And also, Russian aircraft carriers can cross the straights, because they are classified as aircraft maintenance ships, a term that does not exist in the original Montreux Convention, whereas a US aircraft carriers are banned.

It is beyond imagination the corruption that exists at the highest levels of Tayyiban, which answers your question about any possibility of confrontation between Turkey and Russia, also a cleptocracy.

Medicine Man

It really looks like a lot of Washington DC simply resents any other power deciding the outcome of events in volatile parts of the world. It is as if Russia is usurping what they see as their role.

Kunuri

different clue, as to what is happening in Turkey right now, some commentators are using the "Chrystal Nacht" anology, it is indeed very worrisome.

For some time, AKP has been organizing a militant youth group, called "Osmanli Ocaklari", direct translation "Ottoman Hearths", basically a reference to Janissaries. These are young, brainwashed, extremely dangerous Erdoganists, fully funded and organized by AKP using state funds. Recently, in several speeches, Erdogan pointed out to HDP, Kurdish Political party with 80 MPs in parliament, and Hurriyet newspaper as the perpetrators of the recent violence in Turkey. As a result, over 80 HDP political offices has been vandalized and burned by these militant AKP supporters, as well as the offices of Hurriyet, a moderate opposition newspaper, one of the biggest and oldest in Turkey, twice within a week! They don't wear brown shirts though, their favorite color is Permanent Green.

But the truth is, Erdogan started all this with calculations of regaining the majority in parliament and getting himself placed as the supreme leader, or the Fuhrer, after June 7 elections indicated that it was a pipe dream. Promptly, Erdogan engineered a no holds barred repeat election, regardless of cost in treasure and lives. Lives part is at the expense of Kurds and Turkish Security forces, which reached over 100 since he pushed the button, declaring there is no Kurdish problem in Turkey. He is playing a game so intricate, so evil, and so Machiavellian that I give him grudging admiration on this point. I have seen his likes at World Poker Championships in Las Vegas, losing big, but still going for that one last big pot, double bluffing and perfectly capable of pulling a six shooter from under the table, if it seems hopeless. That is what he is doing.

Incidentally, I have been reading again the wonderful book by William Shirer, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, the parallels to what is happening in Turkey are frightening. I only take solace in the fact that there are still a lot of level headed people in Turkey who can come into conclusions on their own, though extremely cowed and marginalized at this time, and yes, Kurds of Turkey included.

As far as ISIS is concerned, Erdogan's double game must baffle even the most seasoned analysts in IC in US. But if they start from the point of view that the man is a criminal psychopath who has no core values of any sort, only a self important rhetorician, things may start to make sense, and US will stop to honor him as a rational player. So, I am amazed some people are complaining he reneged on Incirlik agreement, what did Mr. Adelman expect?

William R. Cumming

Tell me about the one million Russian Jews now in Israel? A fifth column or defenders of the faith?

J

Colonel, TTG,

It would be interesting reading the files the ГРУ have collected on the problem groups of Syria.

J

Should be some way the DIA can protect their work, then the CIA plagiarists can be identified for what they are - CIA grubbers.

alba etie

TTG
I wonder if there in the end will not be tacit acceptance of Russian troops on the ground in Syria by the Obama administration ? Could the Obama administration actually be trying to get a brokered political settlement that left the Syrian Government in power with President Assad retiring to Moscow ?

Patrick Bahzad

TTG, Joe 100,

Regarding Russian airborne forces, I wouldn't infer a lot from their promotional vids or from the Pristina precedent. Sure, they did take the airport back then, arriving overnight, and that did surprise us. But after that they were pretty much f*ed, as they were not able to get
the necessary supplies and logistics in. Was a nice bonfire, lasted a certain time and that was it.

As for an massive air assault into a rebel zone, or "safe area" along the Turkish border, it's ok as a narrative for the T. Clancy novel, but it's not in the cards definitely.

J

TTG,

The J-Nusra and ISIL as they are dying will hear hello from sky.

The ВДВ celebrated their 85th birthday last month, and have had a chance to sharpen their skill-sets since Pristina.

ВДВ - С неба привет!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ak6XnBR9SyY

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

September 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30      
Blog powered by Typepad