"Russian Moves in Syria Pose Concerns for U.S." NY times

"Russia has sent a military advance team to Syria and is taking other steps the United States fears may signal that President Vladimir V. Putin is planning to vastly expand his military support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, administration officials said Friday.

The Russian moves, including the recent transport of prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people to a Syrian airfield and the delivery of a portable air traffic control station there, are another complicating factor in Secretary of State John Kerry’s repeated efforts to enlist Mr. Putin’s support for a diplomatic solution to the bloody conflict in Syria.

The Russians have also filed military overflight requests with neighboring countries through September.    

American officials acknowledge that they are not certain of Russia’s intentions, but some say the temporary housing suggests that Russia could deploy as many as 1,000 advisers or other military personnel to the airfield near the Assad family’s ancestral home. The airfield serves Latakia, Syria’s principal port city.                                                                                        

Other American officials say they see no indication that Russia intends to deploy significant numbers of ground forces, but they say the housing would enable Russia to use the airfield as a major hub for ferrying in military supplies for the Syrian government, or possibly as a launching pad for Russian airstrikes in support of Mr. Assad’s forces.

American intelligence analysts are also looking at ship loadings in Russia to determine what might be bound for Syria, and one official speculated that the Russian deployment might eventually grow to 2,000 to 3,000 personnel."  NY Times

---------------

It pains me to find something good in Michael Gordon's work but this is a thorough article.  Perhaps Eric Schmitt is responsible. 

IMO, for these two journos to have this much input from US officials means that the US Government is "softening the blow" for the American people in anticipation of an unannounced accommodation with Russia over this and perhaps even acquiescence in the Russian policy determination that the Syrian government should not disappear and then be replaced by God knows what.

Putin's statement at Vladivostok should not be interpreted as a definitive nyet!  The Russians are masters of the art of disinformation and misdirection to cover their actions and plans.

It seems clear that Russia's plan is to sufficiently reinforce the Syrian government to enable negotiations with the more "healthy" rebel groups so as to create a Syrian base for a coalition struggle against the jihadis.  Turkey's actual allegiances make such a process problematic. 

"Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer who now studies Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that Mr. Putin’s intentions were clear. 'All this tells me is that the Russians are not backing away from the Assad regime,' he said."  NY Times

You got that right, Jeff.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/05/world/middleeast/russian-moves-in-syria-pose-concerns-for-us.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-upping-military-intervention-in-syria-2015-9 

Comments

[Will]

where is the Khedive to teach them humility? Suffering would enoble their spiritual side. Sometimes, wish we hadn't stopped Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti (sigh).

"His first military campaign was an expedition into the Arabian Peninsula. The holy cities of Mecca, and Medina had been captured by the House of Saud, who had recently embraced a literalist Hanbali interpretation of Islam. Armed with their newfound religious zeal, the Saudis began conquering parts of Arabia. This Ottoman–Saudi War culminated in the capture of the Hejaz region by the Ottoman Empire in 1803.
With the main Ottoman army tied up in Europe, Mahmud II turned to Muhammad Ali to recapture the Arabian territories. Muhammad Ali in turn appointed his son, Tusun, to lead a military expedition in 1811. The campaign was initially turned back in Arabia; however, a second attack was launched in 1812 that succeeded in recapturing Hejaz.[28]
While the campaign was successful, the power of the Saudis was not broken. They continued to harass Ottoman and Egyptian forces from the central Nejd region of the Peninsula. Consequently, Muhammad Ali dispatched another of his sons, Ibrahim, at the head of another army to finally rout the Saudis. After a two-year campaign, the Saudis were crushed and most of the Saudi family was captured. The family leader, Abdullah ibn Saud, was sent to Istanbul, and executed."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Ali_of_Egypt

[Babak Makkinejad]

I want to include Jordan, Western Iraq and Eastern Syria, and all of Maghreb.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The AKP government claims to be a Islam-centered/Islam-Oriented political party.

Its name "Adl" - "Justice" - is from Quranic Arabic and carries the Divine import mentioned in the Quran.

This Islamic government, then has carried out massive and persistent in-Justice against fellow Muslims (in Syria) - to whom, by Islamic Tradition, it has a religious obligation of doing no harm and acting in a charitable manner.

Arabs do not have future in Turley because of the Turkish government; in an analogous situation (Seljuk) Afghans found a future - however meager - in Iran and the non-Seljuk Afghans in Pakistan.

As for Kurds; they have fought for 30 years and have nothing to show for it only the dead - Kurd and Turkish. As though they can have a future outside of Turkish Republic.

In the meantime, Sunni Muslim - Ikhwan and non-Ikhwan have given EU a poison pill that will keep on giving for decades and centuries.

Of course, one has to keep in mind that in all of this Iran and the Shia have been the Real Enemies....

[Bandolero]

different clue

Of course IS, Qaeda and the likes must be defeated, and that can only happen in collaboration with the Syrian government. Militarily, the EU cannot help much, what Russia and Iran can't, and that isn't needed. However, politically, there are a lot of things the EU can do to help.

First of all that's instead of supporting terrorism to weaken Assad getting behind the Russian and Iranian proposals to form a broad national and international coalition fighting takfiri terrorism including the Syrian government. The national coalition to fight terrorism in Syria would include the Syrian army, the Kurds, and in case such groups exist, any rebels willing to fight side by side with the Syrian army against the takfiris. It may also include a political deal with the Syrian government to end the political crisis as I outlined it above.

Second Germany and the EU could put political and economic pressure on some state supporters of terrorism in Syria, first and foremost Turkey, to stop supporting terrorism in Syria. Turkey is economically very much dependent on the EU, and especially on Germany, so Erdogan can hardly effort not to listen to Germany and the EU.

Third the EU could sanction and push for UN sanctions against state sponsors of terrorism in Syria which could bring some pressure on the Saudis and the wahhabi GCC rulers.

As result of the migration flow into Germany I expect political pressure in the EU to grow into this direction. The first of my points seems well to be in the cards very soon. Just today for example I read in the Spiegel to stem the refugee flow it would be neccessary to "talk to Assad." How much of my second and third points will materialize is hard to say, but I certainly expect to increase political pressure in that direction as a result of the so-called refugee crisis.

[Babak Makkinejad]

You mean EU leaders would wear sac cloth and ashes and fly to Tehran?

That is already happening.

Would France rent Iran a few hundred bomber airplanes; the way she supplied Saddam Hussein?

I very much doubt that.

[Charles I]

Nonetheless, they are in it now, yesterday I heard French surveillance flights over Syria are commencing.

[The Beaver]

Brig. Ali

Just have to read about the row that erupted in Vallauris, on the Golfe Juan last month. After 3 days of revolt by the locals, they left town to go to Marrakech.

[alba etie]

CP
"Apparently there aren't such folks in positions of political power "

IMO we have a reason to be hopeful about the USG institutional push back against the neocons et al in that the IO operation against the Iran Nuclear Deal appears to have failed . The question for me now becomes is this a strategic pivot point away from the neocon CheneyBush MENA madness or not ? If it is a pivot away from the Clean Break crowd I think that Secretary of State Kerry 's conversation with the Gulfies are the same conversation President Obama just had with King Salman - my bet is Assad is leaving and there will be a coalition government in Damascus guaranteed by Russian boots on the ground - but with diplomatic buy in from the P5 t 1 ...

[Outrage Beyond]

Translation of the Cassad blog:

http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/09/russia-will-never-abandon-syria-10.html

[FkDahl]

French general Pinatel "We must work with Assad to defeat ISIS"
http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/2015/09/06/31002-20150906ARTFIG00076-syrie-la-france-doit-aider-assad-a-combattre-daech.php

[LondonBob]

Diplomatically and politically there is much that Europe can do as you suggest, however all I see is Hollande and Cameron pushing for airstrikes, opposed by Syria (http://news.sky.com/story/1547608/syria-condemns-any-uk-military-interference) as well as the continued push for a no fly zone and everything that implies. Of course I would expect no better from Hollande and Cameron, the question is what does Merkel think?

Noteworthy (https://www.rt.com/news/314616-greece-request-airspace-russia/).

[Bandolero]

LondonBob

As usual Merkel is quite reserved in her public remarks until the public debate seems to settle down.

However, there are some hints: after the P5+1 deal Merkel said something like that to solve the crisis in Syria it's a good idea to talk with Iran and include Iran in a solution.

Now today, the chief editor of public broadcaster Deutsche Welle, which is directly under the supervision of the German government led by Merkel, said military intervention in Syria, to which he asks on which side to intervene, is not an option which promises to solve the causes of the refugee crisis so the only option remaining is diplomacy. And for diplomacy on Syria it's neccessary to talk with Assad.

See here:

http://www.dw.com/de/kommentar-was-tun-in-syrien/a-18698362

In other leading German media I read today regarding the refugee crisis that French and British plans to bomb ISIS in Syria is a sign of their helplessness because the problem is not the US-led coalition against ISIS has too few airplanes able to do bomb-runs. The problem of the coalition is on the ground, and, besides the Kurds, which are geografically contrained, the only capable force there on the ground is the Syrian army, so what's needed is to get to terms with Assad.

[VietnamVet]

All,

We shall see what is really important. The continuation of neo-con’s policy of regime change which continues the flood of refugees into Europe. Plus, the neo-liberal’s economic strangulation of the peripheral Eurozone states.

The defeat the Islamic State requires a million man invasion force. To send enough troops the USA would need the draft and taxing the rich. This will lead to World War III unless the coalition includes Russia and China. The Sunni nations; Turkey, Pakistan and the Gulf States would have to agree to look the other way. The alternative is to carve out secure minority enclaves where the refugees could return to safety. This requires the continued existence of the Syrian state and ending Turkey’s war on the Kurds. The Islamic State would have to be quarantined which means that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel would have stop their support of the Islamists.

If nothing is done, the dead zone will continue creeping to the northwest.

[LondonBob]

I would like to clarify to any foreign readers that Cameron's comments are just hot air. A fair number of his own party and all the opposition parties (UKIP, Greens, Lib Dems, SNP) including the main opposition party Labour, which is about to elect Jeremy Corbyn (who is avowedly anti NATO, anti US and anti Israeli) as their leader, are all opposed to intervention. Britain is unlikely to get involved.

Also in regards to Russian military flight routes Flightradar has them over flying Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus.

[gemini33]

According to someone who was traveling in the region this summer, the number of refugees in Turkey has grown to the point where it's causing anger and unrest among Turks for a number of reasons, one of them being that the economy is in really bad shape and desperate refugees are working for extremely reduced rates. Erdogan's top priority, from my understanding, is saving himself politically in the upcoming elections and his ambitious plans. So it doesn't seem like he'd need much encouragement to urge or help refugees to move on to Europe.

I also wonder about the traffickers. Do traffickers work particular routes all the time or do they go to different places based on where they're hired to go?

[D]

FkDahl, Gen. Pinatel needs to convince Hollande of his very sensible positions. Is he active-duty and are active duty French officers encouraged or permitted to speak so clearly at odds with official government policy?

[abuabdullah]

No disrepect sir, but it makes me wince to see tunisia thrown in that bag. The established political order was hardly destroyed, and all things considered going on in the immediate vicinity of the country tiny Tunisia has managed to steer on the right course over these trying 5 years. Bar a major political disaster in the immediate region, I see a comparably bright future for Tunisia compared to that of other arab states

[different clue]

gemini33,

I don't know, but I would sorta guess that the traffickers or traffic-bookers all stay where they are but may use different smugglers on different routes. This is assuming the bussiness is now big enough that the traffic bookers-arrangers are a different set of people then the actual people-smugglers.

So . . . Erdogan and the Erdogists are feeling the heat from Turkish discontent at all the refugees? After Erdogan and the Erdogists did their very best to engineer this refugee situation into existence in the first place? What will the Erdogists do if the discontented Turks ( and maybe Kurds too) realize the connection between all these Syriastinian Refugees in their country and the Erdogist support for Nusra and IS which helped force all these Syriastinian refugees into Turkey? Can he prevent that realization from taking wide hold before he holds his snap elections?

[different clue]

Babak Makkinejad,

I am not sure what I mean in particular. What form would EU/US-UK support-switching to the SAR side take? Would it be enough to remove all trace of non-Turkish border support from the Turkish border with Syria? And indicate that the NATO allies would view with extreme disfavor any Turkish effort to interfere with SAR air operations in Northern Syria right up to the Turkish border? If NATO senior leadership made the Erdogists understand that ISIS, Nusra and the "moderate opposition" are now the West's official designated enemy in Syria, and that Turkish support to anti-Assad forces would make Turkey into NATO's enemy for as long as that support continued and make Turkey's continued presence in NATO extremely difficult, would that be enough to change Erdogan's actions? Would freezing Turkish interference with SAR's actions everywhere within Syria be enough to tip the balance swift and hard to Assad when combined with uninterrupted aid from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah? If it would, then NATO would not have to give
SAR any overt aid. Merely freezing aid to the anti-Assad side would be enough.

And if all this began to shrink the Turkish economy to where Erdogan's " in it for the money" base began to feel shrinkage to their sweet rackets and good-things-going? Perhaps even large numbers of Erdogists would seek some other AKPist to replace Erdogan with in particular.

If the whole West does a 180 and totally switches its identification to the SAR side, perhaps freezing Turkish aid to the anti-SAR side will be enough to get that side crushed.

[different clue]

VietnamVet,

I know nothing of military affairs, so I am in no position to opine that defeating IS would require any less than a million soldiers. I assume that defeating means the total conquest and unconditional surrender of all IS territory in both countries.

But would it require a million soldiers to achieve a lesser goal of driving IS and Nusra and the "moderate rebels" out of all those parts of Syria which are economical and/or culturally valuable? And confining their western border to the most worthless desert? Would a combination of SAR-loyal soldiers and Hezbollah and Iranian helpers and Kurdish fighters of all flavors be enough to secure that retrenched border between Core SAR and IS?

If it would, then perhaps IS could be default-redirected to focus all its military attention against Shia Iraq, which would keep losing unless and until the Iranian government could convince ( or torture or assassinate) the Shia Iraqi government into offering Iraqi Sunnistan an autonomous home-rule-based fair and square deal. At which point some of the Sunni Arab tribes might withdraw their support from ISIS.

[Amir]

From first hand account: King Hassan had the bathroom of a famous clinic be equipped with gold tap, sink and toilet, when he was in his deathbed.

[Amir]

Although "some" of the inhabitants of Jordan, Eastern Syria, Western Iraq and Maqhreb suffer from the same ills as the Hijazis, using the latter word will focus the attention on the head of the problem instead of the body. The formers' ideology is just a transplant of the latter, figuratively. The Hijazis also are the deep pocket behind this abomination. Above all, the name rhymes like Nazis and is perfectly marketable.

[Amir]

Moon of Alabama has an interesting take on the why:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/09/who-runs-the-migrant-media-campaign-and-what-is-its-purpose.html
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/09/under-fight-against-isis-disguise-west-prepares-to-openly-attack-syria.html#comments

R2Pers manufacturing consent?

[J]

Colonel,

It appears that Rep. Wasserman Schultz is now trying to sing a different tune and 'support' the new Iran deal.

http://news.yahoo.com/powell-wasserman-schultz-support-iran-nuclear-deal-153825741.html

Question is, why is she now singing a different tune? Did Likud 'release' her, or did it become politically uncomfortable or untenable that she felt politically she had no choice?

A zebra trying to change its stripes?

Wonder what her handlers are thinking?

[Margaret Steinfels]

How about she wants to remain head of the DNC? AIPAC and Likudniks would also want her in that job. Even so, she and Schumer should get the boot from their respective Democratic jobs.