Sic Semper Tyrannis

Good! Hit ALL jihadi groups! Create a coordination center!

(jabhat al-nusra in action)

"So, who else could Russian jets be targeting? Ruth Sherlock writes:

Russia may have targeted Jaysh al-Fatah as they are the rebel group that poses the greatest threat to Latakia, the regime's heartland and location of the Russian controlled port of Tartous.

Some background on who this group are: Jaysh al-Fateh - the Army of Conquest - is a broad alliance of hardline Islamist groups, which includes both Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham.

In March this group captured Idlib, making it the second provincial capital to fall to the opposition since the start of the war.

Since then they have been effective in fighting the regime in Idlib and it looks like they may be able to push on government strongholds in central Syria and Latakia.

One interesting note - the Russians appear to have been watching this group for a long time: A year ago much of the Ahrar al-Sham leadership was wiped out by an explosion that took place where all the commanders had gathered. "  Telegraph

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"Jaysh al-Fateh - the Army of Conquest - is a broad alliance of hardline Islamist groups, which includes both Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham." 

What part of that sentence in bold above is difficult to understand?  ALL THE JIHADIS ARE ENEMIES, not just IS.  ALL OF THEM.

If Jabhat al Fath, captures Latakia, is it not as much lost to modernity as it would be if IS captured the town?

Madmen like McCain and various empty headed retired generals are busy on the media pushing the US public toward war with Russia.  What is the matter with these people?

ALL JIHADIS ARE THE ENEMY, NOT JUST IS.  pl 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11900853/Putin-request-for-use-of-Russian-troops-in-Syria-approved-live.html

A Mark Riebling interview.

 

Mark is a distinguished historian of the intelligence world.  He has a new book on Pius XII.  "Church of Spies: The Pope’s Secret War Against Hitler"pl

http://www.samharris.org/blog/item/rethinking-hitlers-pope

 

Notes on Syria - 29 September 2015

- The drivellers on the tube this AM insist that Obama should have pulled the trigger on punitive air attacks against Syria over the putative use of Sarin gas.  Propaganda and IO are wonderful things.  Any sort of "reality" can be generated with good "theming" and enough repetition.  Think back pilgrim seekers for truth.  The US intelligence community refused to issue a paper affirming that the Syrian government had actually done this.  Faute de mieux the politicos of the Obama Administration issued their own paper asserting that the Syrian government had done this thing.  There was no real evidence, just assertions.  Now this "fact" asserting Syrian government use of gas against civilians is constantly cited by people like the savage woman Nicolle Wallace as evidence of the total culpability of Syria, No!  I take that back.  She is more interested in scoring points against Obama than anything else.

- John Kerry appeared on Morning Joe today to make various implausible claims:

    * Bashar Assad (the man, not the Syrian government) is the essential problem in Syria.  According to Kerry, if Assad chose to leave Syria the war would quickly end in a cease fire.  For the sake of discussion let us assume that in the absence of Bashar Assad, whatever truly non-Kurdish oppositionists there be would enter into a cease fire.  Would IS enter a cease fire?  Would the Nusra Front do that as well?  The answer is a qualified NO!  They, like the Blues Brothers, (Universal Pictures -1980) are "on a mission from God" or at least their vision of God, and their God does not entertain cease fires with those who oppose the vision of his kingdom (varied) that he has given them.  Short answer - the jihadis will not enter into a cease fire unless it sets them up for a final push to the Kingdom of Heaven.

    *  According to Kerry, Sunni Muslims will not accept Assad as president of Syria because he represents a religious minority (Alawis) and is a cruel man.  Meanwhile, next door in Iraq the US is courting Sunni Arabs and seeking to persuade them to fight their fellow Sunnis in IS under command of a government in Baghdad that we brought into being.  This government is run by and for the interest of Shia Arabs and has a record under several prime ministers of unlimited exclusion of and cruelty toward Sunni Arabs as well as double dealing and treachery toward Sunni Kurds.  This whole line of "thought" is nonsense.  Baathi Syria always had a large number of Sunnis in its structure and business world.  Mustafa Tlas, the former Defense Minister and General Hikmat Shihabi the long time commander of the military are good examples.  They were both Sunni Arabs and as I wrote recently there are many, many Sunni Arabs in the Syrian Arab Army.  What Kerry is really saying IMO is that the Saudis, Israelis and Erdogan want Bashar Assad gone.

    *  Inherent in Kerry and Obama's pronouncements is an attitude that reflects the belief that the United States is the as yet unnamed World Empire of the Good and that the R2P vision of a world ruled by benevolent believers in social evolution and revolution is emerging.  For people who hold such beliefs, resistance is not only futile (history is on their side - irony alert) but such resistance to the civilizing mission of the US is also evil and prima facie evidence of disordered thought.  Therefore, it is clear (more irony) that such resistance is to be overcome and not accepted lest other potential resistors should take heart.  Russia's resistance to the un-divine will of the emerging world order has already encouraged the likes of David Cameron to express doubt in the imperial ukase concerning Syria.

What to do?-  I was asked today to state what I think should be done:

    * Accept the truth that we destroyed the Iraqi state and from that act of vandalism all present chaos in that country derives.

    * Don't do it again in Syria.

    * Stop saying that no "Assad cronies" can be in the government or head the government.  They ARE the government.  Assad himself is dispensable, but not the government of Syria.

    * Act like Russia, China and Iran matter as something other than rivals and adversaries.

    *  Ignore Erdogan's Turkey.  It is  a manifestation of the jihadi enemy.  They will deny us use of Incirlik and the other bases?  Fine, that would clarify the situation.  Move onto Syrian bases or the big, unused NATO built base north of Tripoli in Lebanon. 

    * Ignore Saudi Arabia's wishes with regard to Syria.  They are jihadi supporters.

    *  Ignore Israel's wishes with regard to Syria.  Natanyahu's government is pursuing a mistaken and short sighted policy of eliminating coherent government in Syria for the purpose of crippling their Lebanese Hizbullah adversaries whom they think exist because of Syrian and Iranian help.  The Likud's imagined interest in Syria is not America's interest.

    * Accept Russian and Iranian co-belligerence in the war against the jihadis, ALL JIHADIS.

    * Fully coordinate operations, intelligence analysis sharing and logistics with the co-belligerent partners.

    * FIGHT THE JIHADIS, NOT THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT. 

pl

Petraeus reborn!

?

"... he said Syrian President Bashar Assad should be told that the U.S. Air Force will sweep Syrian warplanes from the sky if Syrian aircraft drop any more “barrel bombs,” a vicious generator of refugees. “We have that capability,” he noted.

That would at long last demonstrate U.S. seriousness — something lacking for Syria ever since President Obama erased his own “red line” on the use of chemical weapons early last year.

Petraeus advocated the formation of enclaves, protected by air power, supplied with radios and perhaps U.S. advisers. The mission should be protection of Sunni Arabs from all enemies, Assad’s troops as well as the Islamic State controlling much of Syria and adjacent Iraq. To that end the United States should embed advisers with Iraqi brigade headquarters and consider deployment of U.S. tactical air controllers to direct air strikes.

It was the first appearance of Petraeus before Congress since his conviction, probationary sentence and $100,000 fine for suppling a mistress with classified documents, something for which he apologized to the committee — again. That lapse in judgment surely has not made his expertise any less useful.  Boston Herald

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The Boston Herald thinks this is great thinking and wonderful advice.

It is not!  It is terrible advice, and typical of a man whose much overblown reputation rests on the illusion that somehow he "won" the war in Iraq.  In fact, he took advantage of a largely sui generis revolt on the part of Sunni Arab tribesmen against AQ.  Petraeus had the brains to seize upon this revolt as something that would make the AEI inspired "surge" of additional US troops look good.  That is what happened.

He wants to create enclaves of sanctuary in northern Syria to "protect" the Sunnis from the Syrian government?  Hey David!  The Syrian Army has many, many men in it who are Sunni Muslims.  He thinks such havens could be protected by US Air?  What planet does this man live on?  Where has air power ever sufficed to protect any large area full of civilians?  No.  Such enclaves would have to be defended on the ground and not against the Syrian military.  No, the real enemies are the jihadis.  The enclaves would have to be defended against the jihadis.  Who will do that?  Who?

He wants to destroy the Syrian Air Force?  Words fail me...  What a good idea! (irony alert)  Let us remove an anti-jihadi force from the chess board in the game being played in the ME.  What a good idea!

The Egyptian president, Sisi, today told some newsbabe that if the Syrian government falls to the jihadis, the jihadis will then destroy what is left of modernism in the ME, But, no matter, what does he know?  What does he know?

I would not be surprised to see Petraeus appointed by Obama and The Girls to take John Allen's job as apprentice savior and deputy messiah (ME) for the salvation of the R2P dream of a world where the lions and the lambs do lie down together.  Good luck, David!  The world has not become different.  If you take the job you will fail again.

If Petraeus is lucky, the final collapse of present government in Iraq and Syria will not come so soon as to block his nomination to be some Republican or Democratic candidate's VP running mate.  pl 

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/opinion/editorials/2015/09/editorial_good_advice_from_petraeus

"Obama seeks clarity on Syria..." Washpost

"Even as Russian President Vladi­mir Putin started sending tanks, aircraft and additional personnel to Syria’s Mediterranean coast early this month, Obama told his top national security advisers to step back and assemble a sharper picture of how various proposed initiatives would fit together into a coherent whole and improve what is a largely stagnant conflict.

Putin’s moves have further delayed and complicated decision-making on plans that include sending U.S. arms directly to Kurdish and Arab rebels in northeastern Syria, and scaling back and revamping a failed U.S. military training program for other Syrian opposition fighters.

The Russian leader’s objectives remain a mystery to the White House, leading Obama to conclude that the best way to find out is to ask him directly. The two are scheduled to hold a formal meeting for the first time in two years on Monday, after they both deliver morning speeches at the U.N. General Assembly."  Karen De Young

--------------

 Maybe someone should give Obama a digest of the materials published here on Syria/Iraq.  Well, pilgrims, we know that will not happen but we should take heart.  He is at last paying enough attention to this onrushing disaster. 

He has asked the various factions and departments in his administration to sort out and present a coherent picture of what it is that we are doing to further enmerder the situation?  That should prove to be a magnificent exercise in cognitive dissonance, but l'enmerdeur en chef will manage somehow to further confuse the situation I am sure.

By now we should know that Putin thinks he is dealing with a confused schoolyard bully when he talks to Obama.  He will try to reason with the prez but that is likely to prove the futility that he must already know it will be.  Then he will settle for some limited cooperation that can be disguised by Obama as a resolute insistence that Assad is the root problem and that he must go. 

Gradually a de facto alliance will emerge in the struggle against the jihadis, ALL THE JIHADIS, but progress towards that happy state will be slow going.  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-seeks-clarity-on-syria-strategy-as-russia-enters-the-battle-space/2015/09/26/005d1f0e-63d0-11e5-8e9e-dce8a2a2a679_story.html

Francis I vs The Donald

What a comparison.

On the one hand you have Donald Trump who scorns any and all who might be thought rivals and who uses all the PR and negotiating mockery and cruelty that are standard tools of business.  It is all about him.  Everything is about him.

On the other hand you have Francis who went to the conclave that elected him expecting to go home to Buenos Aires after the duty of voting had been performed.  We should remember that he does not like Rome and would rather be somewhere else.  He warned the conclave that they should carefully consider whether they wanted him.  He knew that he would be a transformational figure and a pastor to every soul that he could touch.  So far as I know he still refuses to live in the pontifical palace where he would be waited on hand and foot.  Instead he lives in a guest house somewhere in Vatican City.  The Fiat clown car that he rides around in is endearing in its sentiment and a marvelous contrast once again to The Donald's magnificence or triviality, however you wish to perceive him.

Francis is a man who says he wants to retire before he dies so that he can go out for a pizza with friends.  The Donald is a native New Yorker who eats pizza with a knife and fork.

Francis accepts that he might be martyred on any of the many occasions when he gets out of the Fiat and plunges into the embrace of the crowd.  He laughs and says he is ready so long as the end is not too painful.

Does The Donald think himself replaceable?  pl

Iraq - an abomination of desolation

Tacitus spoke of Roman power.  "They have made a desert and called it peace."  In Iraq, we Americans created an abomination where before us there was merely a desert ruled by a commonplace tyrant.

As I have written before, Iraq as it was created by the British from some of the ruins of the Ottoman Word, is no more.  There is a rump state, recognized internationally, possessing a seat in the UN, perhaps able to defend with foreign help a rump territory south of Baghdad but not able to do much else.

The "Kingdom of Iraq" was called that in 1921 because the new country was conceived as being not Arab, not Sunni Muslim, not Shia Muslim, not Kurdish, not Jewish, not Turkoman, not Yazidi, not Christian, but rather a homeland for all those and more.  IMO it was one of the noblest of British colonial aspirations.  Yes, I know about the oil and the air route to India.  Those who wish to believe that all government is selfishness will believe that to be the true British motives no matter what I say and so I will not bother to argue with them. 

Iraq was created as an experiment in multi-cultural governance in the ME.  As decades passed, the country became more and more Arab, more and more Islamic and less and less rationally governed.  Nevertheless, it remained a grand experiment a process of becoming something new rather than a finished product to be listed in someone's encyclopedia of "nations."

And then came the neocon domination of George W. Bush and the "Mission Accomplished" moment.  The carefully worked out neocon/Zionist plot to trigger an anti-Sunni revolution across the ME, revolution designed to replace "difficult" Sunni governments with malleable minorities.  This revolution was intended to bring on an imagined earthly paradise for Israel.  This dream of utopia destroyed the social order in the the Iraqi experiment and made space for the jihadis, space that had not been allowed them by the dictator.  How do I know that this was intention of the plot?  The plotters boasted of their goal to anyone who would listen.

"They have no culture worth saving" was so typical a statement made just after the dissolution pf the Iraqi government.

What can be done about the jihadi menace?

- The US can abandon its foolish policies in the Islamic World and accept the imperfectability of man and man's institutions in places over which we have no control and little influence.

- The US can make common cause with those who wish to fight the jihadis.

- The US can encourage the election of a Kemalist government in Turkey.  Let us not be hypocritical.  If the Saudis can fund their proxies, We can fund ours sub rosa.  Surely the CIA can manage that.

- The US can back away from the non-alliance with the Wahhabi sponsors of jihadism in Riyadh.

- The US can accept the fact that the Kurds need access to the sea somewhere if their protean state is to survive and mature.  The Turks will never help them with that.  Shia run Iraq will not help them with that.  Russia has no common border with them.  10% of Kurds are Shia.  there are ports for Kurdistan.  They are in the Gulf and the roads to them run through Iran.

- The US should adopt a policy of containment in re ALL the jihadis (including the al- Saud) and then wait for the fire to burn low.  pl 

Boehner

Let us now praise the worthy.  Harry Reid said today that with the resignation of John Boehner it can be said that the party of Eisenhower and Reagan is no more.  I agree  pl

"Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War?" - first published 11 April 2015

(Bandolero - My opinion has not changed - PL)

"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.

While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.

"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said."  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410

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IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen.  This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY.  SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations.  The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive.   On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located).  The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions.  In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents.  Egypt is dragging its feet.  The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US.  pl

***********

"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.

Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-air-war-struggles-to-make-gains-as-yemen-fragments/2015/04/09/1a045766-ddf6-11e4-b6d7-b9bc8acf16f7_story.html

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IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.

What could be more tempting?  pl 

25 September, 2015 - PS The Al-Saud have now persuaded their Gulfie princeling friends to commit troops to Yemen.  Are these troops actually Arabs from the Gulf?  Well, pilgrims, they can bleed together in the Yemeni mountains and deserts.  pl 

 

Imperial Dreams

I see that Josh Earnest, the pretty man who is now press rep at the WH, said yesterday that Russia is a "regional power with an economy slightly larger than that of Spain."  Earnest does not speak for himself.  That is not in the nature of the job.  This was clearly a declaration of imperial supremacy and a demand for subordination in all things.  At the same time Ash Carter, SECDEF, re-stated the US doctrinal position that Assad himself must be a target of Russian military and diplomatic action as much as the jihadi enemies of us all, including Muslims.  Such statements tell me that the United States is still hopelessly mired in a sink of hubris and imperial dreams.  pl 

http://news.yahoo.com/rejecting-putins-offer-talks-obama-irresponsible-us-official-150828519.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2015/09/24/carter-us-willing-work-russia-against-isis/72757206/

My Opinion on Syrian and Turkish Developments

I have decided to voice my opinions on what the situations are in re the MENA area both abroad and in the US concerning Syria and Turkey.  More tomorrow on Iraq. These are simply my opinions, feel free to disregard them and come up with your own:

- Petraeus wants John Allen's wretched job?  Give it him.  As I understand what happened, Allen found it to be impossible to argue successfully with the WH's collection of "those whose brains were destroyed in the process of obtaining a Ph.D in poly sci " led by the country's community organizer in chief.  Let us see if Petraeus will do better.  IMO Petraeus is a phony of the sort that David Hackworth used to describe as a "perfumed prince," in my words, a Byzantine courtier type whose fame was generated in a largely self orchestrated media campaign.  Let us see if this "Great Captain" can unravel this skein of wormlike threads that he helped create.  Perhaps Broadway Joe Scarborough will turn and burn with him?

- Turkey.  I am told that Saudi Arabia is pouring money into the coming Turkish parliamentary election.  The goal is to give Erdogan a big enough majority to let him abolish the essence of the secular Kemalist constitution of the Turkish Republic and to make the country a sharia law state with minorities reduced to serfdom or dhimmitude.  Hopefully this move might trigger a popular revolt of those not desiring to live in the Middle Ages. 

- Turkey.  There is an inherent conflict in Erdogan's desire to destroy all Kurdish identity and resistance and the US desire to have the various Kurdish groups as allies against IS.  This is certain to cause a split when fully realized by both sides.

- As suggested elsewhere on SST there is agreement between Iran and Russia that the Hizbullah/Iranian forces will concentrate in the area west and SW of Damascus to defend Lebanon while Hizbullah also concentrates on force development in the aftermath of their adventures in Syria.

- IMO the US and Russia will work out mechanisms of operational cooperation under the guise of "de-confliction" of operations.  This process will be driven by sheer necessity and not by wisdom in Washington or at CENTCOM.

- Israel will adopt a posture of watchful waiting in re Syria.  They have been "warned off" by the bear and no longer have any real freedom of action in Syria.  Putin pleasantly told Bibi that any decision of significance in re Syria will henceforth be referred to Moscow.

-  Russia will seek to strengthen the Syrian government's hand(Assad's "regime" in Broadway Joe's phrase) so that it can be a major participant in an anti-jihadi coalition leading to a compromise peace.  Assad's personal fate is of little importance to Russia so long as he is not seen across the world as having been betrayed by Russia as Mubarak was betrayed by the US.  To that end they will give him and his family sanctuary in Russia.

- Russia will continue to reinforce and develop forces and infrastructure in Syria for its expeditionary force.  It will use these forces to implement the strategy described above.  pl

PS Marcus concurs 

US Trained rebels surrender to Nusra. Allen to depart - Walrus

Pentagon-trained rebels in Syria are reported to have betrayed their American backers and handed their weapons over to al-Qaeda in Syria immediately after re-entering the country.

Fighters with Division 30, the “moderate” rebel division favoured by the United States, surrendered to the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, a raft of sources claimed on Monday night. 

Division 30 was the first faction whose fighters graduated from a US-led training programme in Turkey which aims to forge a force on the ground in Syria to fight against Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil). 

A statement on Twitter by a man calling himself Abu Fahd al-Tunisi, a member of al-Qaeda’s local affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, read: "A strong slap for America... the new group from Division 30 that entered yesterday hands over all of its weapons to Jabhat al-Nusra after being granted safe passage. 

"They handed over a very large amount of ammunition and medium weaponry and a number of pick-ups."

=====

President Barack Obama is about to lose the man he hand-picked to build the war effort against the Islamic State. Retired General John Allen (USMC) will be stepping down as envoy to the global coalition this fall, and the White House is searching for a replacement to be the face of America’s flailing effort to destroy the jihadist group in Syria and Iraq.

Allen will leave government service in the coming weeks, four administration officials told us. State Department officials said they were not ready to officially announce Allen’s departure, but he has notified his superiors he will give up his job in early November, after serving just over one year. His chief of staff, Karin von Hippel, will also depart, to join a British think tank.

=======

It seems to me that these Two events might be related and that this is further evidence that the powers that be may be reconsidering their Syrian strategy. Needless to say Col. Lang was right all along; "moderate islamist" is an oxymoron.

The collapse of this operation, if it indeed will be wound up, leaves us with a small problem not unknown to intelligence agencies: what to do with the other batches of "moderate" recruits already in the training pipeline? Do we simply tear up their application forms and send them on their merry way? Hard hearted empaths know what must be done with them. 

 

"Hunger Games" by richard Sale

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2015/09/hunger-games-by-richard-sale.html

 

What is Bibi's leverage in Moscow?

 
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Moscow on Monday to seek reassurance from President Vladimir Putin about Russia's military deployment in Syria and to lay out Israel's concerns about the risk of weapons reaching militants on its borders.

With fighter planes part of the rapid Russian build-up, Israel is worried about the threat of fire accidentally being traded with Russian forces, especially since it has carried out air raids against militants in southern Syria and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters suspected of smuggling arms.

A former strategic adviser to Netanyahu said the Israeli leader would try to work out "ground rules" with Putin about avoiding such clashes."  Reuters

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Explain it to me.  What is Bibi's leverage with Putin? 

When dealing with the US Congress he can threaten the illegal deployment of AIPAC's galaxy of satellite pressure groups and their money for and against individual members of congress.

In dealing with the president of the US (this president) he can imply that money might not be available for construction and maintenance of a presidential library or for post-presidential ventures of various kinds.

What is his leverage with Putin?  Is there a Russian equivalent of AIPAC?  I don't think so.  Russians are notoriously and historically anti-Semitic.  The FSB and militia (police) are still powerful in a country which has a long tradition of police controls over political activity and opposition to the government.

Natanyahu wants to tell Putin and Lavrov what they may and may not do with Russian forces in Syria?  He wants to tell them that they must not let Hizbullah have Russian equipment?

What is his leverage?  Is it the US Air Force and US Navy?  I don't think so.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-mideast-crisis-israel-russia-idUSKCN0RL0GV20150921

"... an establishment of religion"

There us a lot of drivel in the media today about Dr. Carson's statement that he did not think a Muslim (no Z in the word) should be elected president of the United States of America.

Ho Hum.

I have been at pains on SST to try to say clearly that the principal function of the constitution of the United States is to limit the power of the federal and state governments, not to enable them.

The framers assumed that government is naturally greedy for power from the citizens' point of view and that government will seek endlessly to expand its power if not checked from the beginning.

The Establishment Clause of the First Amendment prevents all governments in the USA establishing governmentally empowered national or regional religion.  The framers had many examples of such establishments at the time and were wise to block such an enactment.  The early theocracies in New England were surely something they remembered as well as the established church in England and in so many other places abroad.

The constitution does not generally limit the actions of individuals.  It limits the action of governments.  The principal exception to that is the description of treason as a crime of individuals.

Ben Carson has a right to say that he does not think a Muslim should be president.  I do not agree with his blanket opinion, but that does not invalidate his right to hold such an opinion or express it.

IMO the opinions of individuals have nothing to do with our treasured separation of church and state.  Ben Carson is not a "state."  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/20/ben-carson-says-a-muslim-shouldnt-be-president-many-americans-agree/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Establishment_Clause

12 Million Page Views 2005 t0 2015

pl

The US and Russia will be allied against the jihadis

 

"Satellite imagery provided by AllSourceAnalysis confirms the recent arrival of Russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in Syria’s coastal Latakia province, indicating that Russia has deployed troops inside Syria. Concurrent military exercises inside Russia with the stated mission of training for long-range deployments of airborne troops suggest that Russia may intend to deploy additional forces, possibly further inside Syria. AllSource Analysis imagery of Taganrog Central airbase just east of the Ukrainian border from September 12 shows airborne troops rolling parachutes along a runway along with vehicles and tents more likely configured for sustained operations than for exercises or snap inspections. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking ways to support the Assad regime, to thwart a possible buffer zone established by the United States and Turkey, and to embarrass the United States by positioning Russia as the leader of a new international anti-ISIS coalition. Russian mobilization may protect the Assad regime from rapid collapse, but it may also cause greater radicalization among the Syrian opposition. The Russian deployment to Syria is game-changing. It will alter the nature of international negotiations, compromise and weaken the cohesion and efforts of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition, strengthen the Assad regime, and initiate direct Russo-Iranian military operations (suggesting the creation of a de facto Russo-Iranian military coalition, at least in Syria) for the first time. The U.S. and its partners must fundamentally reassess their approach to the Syrian conflict in light of this critical inflection."  ISW study linked below

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 IMO there is a massive division within the Obama administration with regard to foreign policy.  On the one hand you have pragmatists like Kerry and the JCS who want to see a viable policy that will carry the possibility of the destruction of the current Sunni jihadi movements.  On the other hand you have Obama's band of social revolutionaries who want to see their campaign for unlimited and unfettered human rights continue to be projected overseas in efforts for regime change in Syria, Russia, Iran and in any other place that displeases them.  This policy has been encouraged by Israel apparently as part of its short sighted policy of focusing altogether on short term enemies. 

The Sunni jihadis have made  a shambles of that policy.  JAN and IS are the real enemies of all moderation and multiculturalism in the MENA area.  The destructive US, Saudi, Turkish and Israeli insistence on the downfall of the Syrian Government has created a situation in which the jihadis have a real chance of being the next governing force in what is now called the Syrian Arab Republic.

Russia has decided that it will not accept such an outcome.   The people who are babbling of Russia's desire for Syrian ports, air bases, and the humiliation of the United States are simply wrong.  What Russia wants is the survival of secularism and the Syrian State.  The real possibility that jihadism would emerge as a threat to the Russian state is unacceptable to Russia. To that end the Russians will seek to build up the position of the Syrian government through equipment deliveries and if necessary direct participation in combat against the jihadis.  The ultimate goal is a multi-confessional, multi-national coalition against the jihadis.

The US and Russia are natural allies in that fight.  There will now be de-confliction talks between the US and Russia.  Most military people are practical people.  De-confliction talks will inevitably lead to coordination of operations if the military people are allowed to try to make sense of the situation.

Bibi is going to his Canossa in Moscow on Monday.  I can hardly wait to learn how that discussion will progress.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/19/world/europe/us-to-begin-military-talks-with-russia-on-syria.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kerry-sees-talks-with-russia-over-islamic-state-fight-in-syria/2015/09/18/7bac9818-5cc0-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/forecasting-syrian-civil-war

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-deployment-syria-putin%E2%80%99s-middle-east-game-changer

The Passing of Charles I

Pat, I just got this email. No notice was attached, but the address list was familiar. When I Googled Charles, I found this obituary, among others 

It is a blow; we were internet friends (discovering each other on SST), and I had grown quite fond of him. I will miss him. 

I thought you’d like to know. 

Furrukh

RECIPE FOR DISASTER: How supporting Syrian rebels put US foreign policy into disarray

Part 2: Regional proxies and a covert CIA programme

by Patrick BAHZAD

In the testimony he gave on Wednesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Lloyd Austin – the head of CENTCOM – stated that there was all but a handful of pro-US rebels still operating on the ground in Syria. The rest of that sorry lot had either fled, joined other groups or had been killed. Now, the same eerie question comes up again, like it does every time US policy in Syria faces a new disaster … How could it come to this? How could the US get embroiled in such a calamitous strategy, recording failure, after failure, after failure? The answer to that is simple: what inevitably leads to the same mistakes, is believing your own spin – or rather the spin that the same "think tanks", armchair strategists and pseudo-experts feed a political establishment which already has a partisan agenda. Just to underline this recurring feature, Part 2 of this series will take a good look at various attempts made to support so-called "moderate" Syrian rebels between 2012 and 2015, based on a few case studies.

When trying to break down US efforts at building up rebel groups in Syria, three periods can be identified, all of them characterized by specific military, political and diplomatic circumstances. These fluctuations in the US strategy are already a first indicator of the reasons why it failed: there was no strategy as such in the first place, there were only short-term ideological considerations that dictated US policies on the ground.

Put simply, when the rebels had the upper-hand, they were encouraged to go for the whole nine yards and oust the Assad regime. When they seemed in trouble, their sponsors advocated for an increased effort of some sort and usually got what they asked for, except in two instances which could have been possible game changers (but we will get into these in Part 3). This short sighted policy of going with the flow and not thinking ahead is what brought US foreign policy to the dead-end it is at now.

All of this makes for a pretty dire assessment of US attitudes in relation to the conflict. It almost seems as if the means required to achieve a certain goal superseded the actual goal itself. That goal was “regime change”, let’s not kid ourselves. And the rebels were anti-regime, therefore they had to be supported one way or the other, as violent ouster of Assad was considered the only proper way of achieving the intended result. In plain English, this is called putting the cart before the horse, and that is exactly what US policy has suffered from in Syria.

Open Thread on Elections

Time for a continuing conversation on elections - US, Canadian, Ruritanian, Barsoomian, etc.  pl

 

"... why is Saudi Arabia planning to behead and crucify him?"

 

"It was revealed this week that Ali's appeal against the death penalty has been denied and he will be put to death by the Saudi authorities, first beheaded and then his body strapped to a cross and left to rot.

Ali was arrested in 2012 when he was 17 years old for taking part in a protest. According to anti-death penalty charity Reprieve, Ali was tortured and forced to sign a confession in 2012 and after two years he was sentenced to death in May 2014.

During his "trial", Ali raised the claims of torture but no investigation took place and the court used the confession to sentence him, the charity claims.

He was convicted under a range of charges, from the most seemingly innocuous to the gravely serious. As well as being accused of being part of a terrorist organisation, carrying weapons and targeting security patrols with Molotov cocktails, Ali was also charged with encouraging others to protest using his BlackBerry and explaining to others how to give first aid, Reprieve claimed in a statement on 17 September."  ibtimes

---------------

Let me explain the technique.

After Friday prayers a crowd gathers in front of the big local mosque in much the same way that European crowds once gathered to see people like William Wallace gutted.

When I was the DATT in Jiddah a group came to the embassy from the Ministry of Defense to escort me to a "two header. " They wanted to see what the strange gringo who spoke Arabic could handle.

We stood in the sun for a while and then the mosque doors opened .  A Filipino looking fellow was marched into the plaza with an escort of big black men.  One of them carried the sword.  As they walked one of the Blacks stabbed the prisoner in the kidney with what I was told later was a hatpin.  That straightened him up and the swordsman hit him a hard blow in the back of the neck.  This partially severed the head, but the man was screaming and it took two more blows to get the head off.  My hosts asked what I thought and I said the executioner needed more practice.  They looked disappointed.  The second one went more smoothly.  IS saws heads off with a large knife so I suppose that the Saudi method is more humane.  I don't suppose that will be a consolation to this kid.

These are our allies folks, the people who having been funding jihadis for the purpose of overthrowing the multi-confessional government of Syria.  BTW, there are no Christian churches in Saudi Arabia..  There are a lot of them in Syria.  pl 

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/who-ali-mohammed-al-nimr-why-saudi-arabia-planning-behead-crucify-him-1520160

"Congress rethinks anti-Assad stance" Al Monitor

 

"The issue came to a head Sept. 16 as a key Senate panel held its first IS hearing since the first batch of 54 US-trained rebels was routed in late July by al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra as soon as it entered Syria. Reports that Russia is beefing up Assad's forces with tanks, troops and artillery has only added to the calls of some Democrats for a new strategy.

"I don't know that it helps for us to keep banging the table about Assad," panel member Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., told Al-Monitor. "I think it would be better for us to be as effective as possible in fighting [IS] and restoring some kind of security environment that shifts back the flow of refugees."

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., shared similar misgivings.

"I think we've come to a point where we should be reassessing what our strategy [should be] with respect to Assad and Syria and the conflict there," she said. "I don't have the answer on me about what I think that should be, but I really think we're at a point where we need to reassess, because what we've been doing is not working."

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said he's worried about the "void" left by Assad's removal in the absence of any viable moderate opposition.

"Who are you going to replace him with? What are you going to do? Leave a void?" he told Al-Monitor. "That hasn't worked with Saddam [Hussein] or with [Moammar] Gadhafi. It's a royal, royal mess, and we're just throwing more money at it and making it messier."

And Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., cautioned against open calls for toppling Assad."  Al-Monitor

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/congress-democrats-assad-regime-change-isis.html#ixzz3m0yYnkZh

http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/09/16/kerry-us-weighs-russia-offer-military-talks-syria/32503989/

 

http://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-deployment-syria-putin%E2%80%99s-middle-east-game-changer?utm_source=Copy+of+Iraq+Situation+Report%3A++September+11+-+14%2C+2015&utm_campaign=Iraq+Situation+Report+July+28-30%2C+2015&utm_medium=email

----------------

Can it be?  pl

 

The GOP Debate - 16 September 2015

pl

Emily Blunt

Comments?  pl

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/fox-friends-blasts-blunt-citizenship-comments-article-1.2362776

 

http://www.people.com/article/emily-blunt-becoming-american-citizen-jimmy-kimmel-live

 

 

Habakkuk on the import of WINEP analysis

All, I think what we see in Jeff White's comments is the utter intellectual bankruptcy of the Zionist leadership, alike in Israel and the United States.

In an earlier comment, I quoted the claim by the former French Foreign Minister, Roland Dumas, that an unspecified former Israeli prime minister had told him that 'we'll try to get on with our neighbours but those who don't agree with us will be destroyed.' As Colonel Lang and Patrick Bahzad – both in an excellent position to judge – have told us that Dumas is a figure who should be taken seriously, it seems to me likely that the claim is justified. And in any case, it 'meshes' completely with the approach set out in the 1996 'Clean Break' paper prepared for Netayahu by Perle, Feith, the Wurmsers et al. What this advocated was collaboration with Jordan and Turkey, and implacable antagonism towards Iraq, Syria and Iran. The key role played by the threat from Hizbullah in its analysis is brought out in the section 'Securing the Northern Border', which opens: 'Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which American (sic) can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon'. Because they were, and are, nincompoops, the 'clean breakers' ended up deluding themselves that if the defanged Sunni/Iraqi nationalist regime in Iraq was destroyed, this would pave the way for a solution to their security problems on their northern border. In the event, they managed to empower Islamist Shia in Iraq, while also empowering jihadists – a somewhat spectacular double 'own goal'.

WINEP discovers Russian intervention in Syria

"Russia appears to have begun a significant, direct military intervention in Syria. Extensive reporting, including some attributed to U.S. government and intelligence sources, indicates that Russia is building a joint air-ground expeditionary force in Latakia and Tartus provinces along the northwestern coast, far surpassing the scope of its longstanding advisory and arms-supply role. If this force develops along the reported lines, it could be a game-changer in the war. It could also have major implications for Israel's ability to conduct air operations over western Syria and Lebanon, and for U.S./coalition operations against the "Islamic State"/ISIS and other terrorist organizations in Syria.

Moreover, if the Russian presence becomes established, it will be increasingly difficult to remove. As in Crimea and Ukraine, the United States -- much less any other country -- seems unlikely to challenge Russian forces militarily. And while these forces will probably suffer casualties and could become bogged down in Syria, Moscow may well accept that as the cost of keeping the Assad regime in power and frustrating Washington."  Jeff White at WINEP

--------------

Well, Jeff, better late than never.

"... and for U.S./coalition operations against the "Islamic State"/ISIS and other terrorist organizations in Syria."

Oh, come on - all that would be needed would be a small de-confliction cell somewhere to sort out air space use and missions.

How that would work for the Israelis is anybody's guess if potential air combat would be in an air space covered by Russian air defense units.

pl 

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/russia-in-syria-part-2-military-implications

http://washin.st/1iv5f8C

 

Interview on Al Jazeera America

I was on Ray Suarez' show "Inside Story" on 14 September at 1830 to discuss post deal US/Iran relations.  Because of some legal problem AJ America cannot post or stream their own shows on their own website.

I will post advanced notice of any future appearances there.  pl

Defending the EU’s southern borders* by Balint Somkuti, PhD

 

From 15th of September 2015 onwards Hungary’s image in the mainstream media will turn from clearly bad to outright catastrophic. How do I know? And what does it have to do with the 21st century Völkerwaenderung?  

From that date a new regulation will replace the older, more relaxed one regarding illegal bordercrossing, migration and entering the Schengen-area of the EU. The police which was definitively soft handed with the illegals, will have more power and will be ordered to uphold public order. Such occurances as outbreak from a refugee camp, refusal of fingerprints’ and general registration, storming and blocking public transportation routes such as highways, which were commonplace recently will be prohibited by force, but not deadly force. Unlike in Macedonia, or in Greece, in Hungary policemen were ordered and have been acting mildly even against outright aggression against them. Until now. Contrary to MSM channels’ claims, such as on BBC or CNN minimum violence were used. As of MSM lies see youtube video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV315xqbRK8.  

And yes police units have already been strengthened by military forces, who will be supplementing their efforts. 

The CNN reporter who was said to have been running for her life, must have been scared to death from the cornfield itself since police were strictly banned from using violent methods, and no other uniformed force was on the border at that time. No other source has verified her claims. So much about credibility.  

To be honest I don’t understand what is the EU leadership’s problem with our prime minister’s message to the immigrants: „Don’t come to EU! Even if you do, NOT through Hungary!” I have some ideas but the probable reasons such as a green-red alliance or other motivations cannot be verified. Two things are for sure. 

1. Many politicians use the Völkerwaenderung as a tool in their reelection programmes, sometimes with disgusting paralells. E.g. Mr. Faymann, Chancellor of Austria already strangled by radical right wing contender Mr. Strache, have recently compared Hungary’s current efforts, to events in the Holocaust stirring angry protest from hungarian jewish community leaders.  

2. The political and media elite in most countries have lost contact with reality in which their voters live. The sudden, and previously unseen increase in the support of radical right wing parties even in such consolidated, and well-to-do countries such as Sweden or Finland are good examples of the above. Such are the completely self contradicting comments and acts of the austrian and/or german governments. In Hungary the Soros sponsored media went as far as banning commenting on online articles and blogs within their reach due to the sudden increase of comments contrary to their beliefs.  

On the other hand some of those whom I usually call the local „Fifth Column” (the neoliberal elite) show some signs of sobering. Realizing that none of those whom they used to encourage to come and stay support the ideas so dear to their hearts. Within their usual fearmongering recently they managed to give some credits to the efforts protecting the border, and enforcing the legal regulations regulating entering and/or immigrating to the EU/Hungary. 

And what would be the backstab? Well if the spin doctors again come up with an idea to divert the attention from something -see Mr. Faymann’s outrageous claims or the various condemning comments of german officials’ about hungarian efforts- it may well turn out that while keeping our best at keeping and enforcing EU regulations as well as protecting our country we are the scapegoat and the black sheep of the EU at the very same time. The ever european danish for example just simply let their share of migrants to Sweden because that is where they wanted to go without any sort of media interest. 

*The above views are solely the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the hungarian goverment, other official hungarian body or institute.

 

French Military Intelligence Cautious about Russian Military Build-up in Syria

By Patrick BAHZAD


Amid wide speculations about Russian troops' and logicistics' moves to and from Syria, the director of French "Direction du Renseignement Militaire" (DRM) - the counterpart to America's DIA - went on the record on Friday, stating that "cool heads need to prevail with regard to Russian involvement in Syria".

Speaking at a conference about "Intelligence and Geolocation", General Gomart emphasized that it was important to "let reason prevail" and that some of the most recent news published in various media outlets were subject to a risk of "intelligence manipulation". According to General Gomart, some "95 % of intelligence is based on open sources of all kinds", which means the real worry is the reliability of this information.  

This applies also to most pieces published in recent days about the Russian presence in Syria. As a comparison, General Gomart went as far as giving the example of Ukraine in 2014, when a wealth of stories surfaced, forecasting a Russian invasion before the end of the summer. Photographs of Russian units allegedly operating on the Ukrainian border, or already inside the country, had been published repeatedly, together with stories about a "pre-invasion" military build-up.

According to the director of French DRM, these stories had blown the reality on the ground totally out of proportion, with no "logistics" such as field hospitals or fuel pipelines actually being provided for. The number of "heavy armour" also proved to be greatly exaggerated. Furthermore, and contrary to stories about large numbers of Russian soldiers coming home in "body bags", monitoring of social media revealed no increase in traffic, nor any uptake in messages confirming or even suggesting an increase in combat related deaths.

Egyptian Forces strike Again

St
 

"Egyptian security forces opened fire on a caravan of tourist vehicles in the country’s Western Desert late Sunday night, killing at least 12 people visiting from Mexico and injuring 10 others, among them Mexican tourists and their Egyptian tour guides, officials said.

The tourists were mistakenly killed by a “joint force from the police and armed forces” who were pursuing “terrorist elements” in an area of the desert, according to a brief statement posted to the official Facebook page of Egypt’s Ministry of Interior. The episode happened around midnight, security officials said.

“The incident resulted in the deaths of 12 people and the injury of 10 people from among the Mexicans and the Egyptians,” the statement said. “They have been taken to hospitals for treatment.”

The security forces said that they had believed that the vehicles were being used to transport terrorists. The statement said the group had been driving in a restricted area where unauthorized access is banned."  NY Times

**********

"EgyptAir Flight 648 was a Boeing 737-200^[2] airliner, registered SU-AYH, hijacked on November 23, 1985 by the terrorist organization Abu Nidal. The subsequent raid on the aircraft by Egyptian troops resulted in dozens of deaths, making the hijacking of Flight 648 one of the deadliest such incidents in history."wiki

-------------

Deadly folks, the Egyptians.  If the Egyptian army is coming to your rescue kiss your a-s goodbye.

I happened to be involved in the EA 648 caper.  On that November day, I happened to be visiting the intelligence watch center of DIA, just to see what they were up to.  Seems to me it was a weekend.  No? Well, OK. The lieutenant general director of DIA came rushing in and cried out, "does anyone here speak Arabic or Persian or whatever it is they speak in Egypt?"  After a moment of stunned silence in the room, I said, "well, boss, that would be me.  I'm your head Middle East guy."  To be fair I was in civilian clothes.  He was new and the Middle East was probably not the part of the world that he favored.  We sprinted up to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's office.  This was in the Pentagon and the CJCS was Admiral William Crowe.  The phone on his desk was on "speaker" and people were speaking Arabic on the other end of the circuit.  State had patched a call through from the US Ambassador in Malta.  After a few seconds, I said, "Egyptians."  The ambassador did not speak Arabic.  Crowe said "there's a hijacked  plane from Egypt on Malta.  The  Egyptians have brought in some commandos.  Talk to this general. Talk to this Egyptian, find out what they are doing and interpret for me.  They don't speak much English."  The Gyppo and I chatted for a bit and I translated for Crowe.  Another Egyptian joined the conversation.  The three of us talked for a few minutes. The second Egyptian was the commando unit commander.  They discussed the weather,and how long this mess was lasting and then they decided.  I looked at Crowe and said, "the general has just ordered an attack on the airplane."  Everyone in the room laughed and said I must have got it wrong.  The director of DIA looked embarrassed at my linguistic incompetence.  Just then, there commenced a roaring sound of small arms followed by explosions (probably grenades).  Basically the Egyptians shot the airplane full of holes  and then walked aboard through the large gaps in the fuselage that they had made.  Crowe asked me if the two Egyptian officers had seemed excited.  "Not a bit, I said."  "Not a bit."

Sooo, pilgrims, don't be rescued by the Egyptian Army.  pl 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/14/world/middleeast/egypt-forces-accidentally-kill-mexican-tourists.html?_r=0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_648

Open Thread - 13 September 2015

pl

"Germany's Merkel sees need to cooperate with Russia on Syria" J Post

e
"Germany and other western European powers need to work with Russia as well as the United States to solve the crisis in Syria, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday.

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met with his Russian, French and Ukrainian counterparts in Berlin on Saturday evening and said afterwards he saw growing support for creating an international contact group to solve the Syrian conflict."  J Post

-----------------

Pesky people these Germans, the Goat Boy Prophet (GBP) announced only yesterday that he had counseled the evil Putin on the need to submit to R2P doctrine with regard to Syria.

Some other European countries are siding with Merkel in this?  There will be punishment inflicted.  Flogging will commence and continue until morale improves.  pl 

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Germanys-Merkel-sees-need-to-cooperate-with-Russia-on-Syria-416060

"FBI, intel chiefs decry “deep cynicism” over cyber spying programs" - TTG

Yesterday, our very own Ishmael Zechariah provided a link to an "Ars Technica" article with the above title. The article focused on the heads of several IC agencies speaking at the Intelligence & National Security Summit, an event described as an industry event largely attended by beltway bandits and government toadies trying to stop “the poisoning of the public debate around their missions, and especially around the issue of encryption, by unreasonable haters.” 

Wow. This unreasonable hater had to read on. 

*******************************************

The opening statements from Comey and others were focused on that "venom," as the intelligence chiefs—many of whom had just testified that morning with Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on cybersecurity threats before the House Select Intelligence Committee—sought to make it clear that they were speaking largely to help shift the direction of public discourse about the Intelligence Community. Specifically, they want to find ways to end what they perceive as irrational hostility against their agendas. (TTG note - Can't you just see him scowling as he claims, "And I would have gotten away with it if not for you meddlesome kids.") 

"I have something on my mind that affects all the work we do as an intelligence community," Comey said in his opening remarks. "I think that citizens should be skeptical of government power. But I fear it's bled over to cynicism. It is something that is getting in the way of reasoned discussion, and I'm very concerned about how to change that trend of cynicism." He sees that cynicism directed toward everyone from law enforcement officers on the beat to the intelligence community at large.

In particular, Comey said, he feels that his push for some way to gain backdoor access to encryption was "met with venom and deep cynicism."

"How do we get to a healthier place in talking about authority?" he asked.

NSA head Rogers said that "we have got to engender a better dialogue" on security issues. "In the end, we serve the citizens of the nation... all the revelations [a reference to Edward Snowden and WikiLeaks] have made life more difficult for us." (Ars Technica)

*******************************************

Well bless their hearts. So they wonder how to cut through all the venom and deep cynicism engendered by the ungrateful rabble. For starters, Comey could reach over to that lying, Ming the Merciless looking POS Clapper and slap his mouth dry for lying so blatantly to Congress and the American people. Then he can slam his own head on the table, repeatedly, for insisting on having complete, unencrypted access to all our digital records and communications. Ubiquitous encryption is the answer, not the problem.

On a more serious note, they can embrace their complete and utter failure in defending our digital lives. I have yet to see an acknowledgement of the true seriousness of the most recent series of failures to protect databases at OPM. Comey lamented about someone now reading his SF-86 security questionnaire. That’s small stuff. With the depth and breath of the information collected by China, they can construct an accurate model of how our government works. For years China has been doing a lot of work in AI using geometric algebra and other things I don’t understand. I do know someone who not only understands but creates this stuff for a living. It’s present capabilities and future promise are science fiction scary. With the data China now has on our government (and associated contractors) and the right AI, a predictive model of frightening accuracy of our government’s innermost workings is not just possible, but probable. Think of the Mycroft supercomputer in “The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress” on a far grander scale. I think this is going to bite us in the ass for decades to come. And the people responsible for letting this happen continue to sit on panels like this, revel in their bureaucratic power, collect their fat paychecks and waltz through the revolving doors with impunity. If they had any honor or sense of shame (which they clearly do not) they’d resign and move to the Everglades never to be heard from again. They'll feel right at home among the gators and pythons.

TTG

RECIPE FOR DISASTER: How supporting Syrian rebels put US foreign policy into disarray

Part 1: A Quick Overview (2011-2014)

By Patrick BAHZAD

It has been more than four years now since the start of Syrian civil war. Some 200 000 dead and 4 000 000 refugees later, you might think the US could have come up with a comprehensive and reasonable strategy for putting an end to the bloodbath. You would be wrong though. The war is not over and various factors play a role in its continuation. On the one hand, these factors are linked to local, regional and international interests and players. But what also plays into the hands of those who want to avoid a peaceful settlement, is the failure of US strategies with regard to the conflict.

This is not just a question of focusing on ISIS first and taking care of Syria second. You can't solve one without considering the implications on the other. But in Syria in particular, the policy of supporting so-called "moderates" is one more reason why US influence on the outcome of the war is dwindling. Yet, all of this could have been foreseen and avoided. Chances are however, US failure in those areas is going to continue.

Everything had started with the tidal wave of supposedly democratic revolutions that came along with the "Arab Spring" of 2011. Sweeping across North-Africa and the Middle-East, a grassroots movement of young people craving for democracy, modernization, economic opportunity and basically Western style freedom proved to be unstoppable, or so we were told.

Tunisia and Egypt showed the way. Others followed. In some cases, like in Libya, we had to give them a hand. It took a little longer, as well as some serious NATO airstrikes, but it worked out fine in the end. Once Gaddafi was gone, most of us looked away ... Another "Mission Accomplished" feeling. Libya was free and that was the end of the story as far as the West was concerned. The gates were wide open for a new dawn from Tripoli to Benghazi. One year later though, Benghazi was in the headlines again, for an alltogether different matter. But that is another story.

The "Arab Spring" as model for regime change in Syria

The blue-print for these "Arab Spring" revolutions should have worked in Syria as well, according to the Beltway experts. Bashar al-Assad, the ex-ophtalmologist turned "butcher of Damascus", wouldn't last much longer than the Ben Ali's and  Mubarak's of this world. From the first semi-peaceful demonstrations in a small city on the border to Jordan, to the first fire-fights against a rag-tag army of allegedly secularist freedom fighters, it took only a couple of weeks.

All over the summer of 2011, and especially after the ouster of Gaddafi in Libya, the mainstream media had nothing better to do than feed us videos and accounts of anonymous rebel groups, with exotic names and less structure than the Mexican army of 1910, fighting against Evil. The supporters of covert regime change – whether they were in the Gulf, in Turkey, in Western Europe or in the US – quickly realized the need for a unified command, both from a military and from a PR point of view.

"Splinter" by Richard Sale

 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2015/09/splinter-by-richard-sale.html

The DNI made me do it...

"The scandal surrounding US intelligence reports on ISIS just hit President Barack Obama's inner circle.

James Clapper, America's top spy, is reportedly in "frequent and unusual contact" with the military officer who is suspected of allowing US reports on ISIS to be altered to fit the administration's official line, Spencer Ackerman at The Guardian reports.

"In communications, Clapper, who is far more senior than Grove, is said to tell Grove how the war looks from his vantage point, and question Grove about Central Command’s assessments," Ackerman writes.

"Such a situation could place inherent pressure on a subordinate, sources said."" 

Read more:  http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-administration-and-isis-intelligence-2015-9#ixzz3lRMiOBk0

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/sep/10/james-clapper-pentagon-military-official

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 Well, pilgrims, I will not comment until this situation is clearer pl  

Mike Hayden & Dennis Ross want Israel to have the MOP

This morning Mike Hayden, the grand slam winner in the intelligence general sweepstakes was on the Joe and Mika newsie/morning trivia show.

Mike now is hauling in the big bucks at the Chertoff Group where every day is a good day for Bibi.

On Mornin' Joe, Mike opined that the only thing to do now that the Democrats have won the Iran Deal Struggle is to give (his word) the Israeli Air Force the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) and presumably the big bombers (B-1A, B-2 or B-52) needed to carry this 30,000 lb. beast to the target in Iran.

Mike said that Dennis Ross agrees with him that only by giving the Israelis a completely independent capability to attack underground targets in Iran can the US make Iran fearful enough to make Israel feel good about itself.

Even Joe Scarborough looked a little startled.

I hope that this expression of deep policy insight will be helpful on the bonus front over at the Chertoff Group.  pl 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Chertoff#The_Chertoff_Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Hayden_(general)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Ross

"Russian troops join combat in Syria" Reuters

"Russian forces have begun participating in military operations in Syria in support of government troops, three Lebanese sources familiar with the political and military situation there said on Wednesday.

The sources, speaking to Reuters on condition they not be identified, gave the most forthright account yet from the region of what U.S. officials say appears to be a new military buildup by Moscow, one of President Bashar al-Assad's main allies, though one of the sources said the numbers of Russians involved so far were small.

Two U.S. officials said Russia has sent two tank landing ships and additional aircraft to Syria in the past day or so and has deployed a small number of naval infantry forces.

The U.S. officials, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the intent of Russia's military moves in Syria remained unclear. One of the officials said initial indications suggested the focus was on preparing an airfield near the port city of Latakia, an Assad stronghold."  Reuters

 

------------------

 

I am told by my own sources that the dissonance within the Obama Administration's ranks has resulted in what IMO is a mindless decision to oppose Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war.

 

The amateurs at work in the WH, NSC and State Department continue to be incapable of understanding that the disappearance of the structure of the Syrian state will inevitably lead to the creation of a jihadi  dominated state where Syria is now located.  Whether or not that state would be ruled by IS or the Nusra front is unclear, but what is clear is that in either case the resulting cancerous situation will be the beginning of the end of any sort of moderation in government within the region.  The example provided by the triumph of salafist jihadism would exert such a powerful "pull" on the available human potential for recruitment and subversion that IMO no government would be able to stand against it.

 

To prevent that, the Russians seem intent on reinforcing the Syrian government and the US is doing all it can to prevent this.  The US has pressured governments seeking a denial of diplomatic overflight clearances for Russian cargo aircraft en route to Syria.  It has also sought some means with which to deny Russian vessels passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles.

 

What on earth do we think we are doing?  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/09/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0R91H720150909

Quid Pro Quo Vadis

Excuse my Latin, which I actually studied. Also excuse my total ignorance of air planes, tanks, military strategy, etc. (which I didn't). But I have followed with some trepidation rumors/news of the quid pro quo that Israel and AIPAC are angling for when the Iran Nuclear Agreement goes through the DC washing machine.

Several Yea votes from Democrats have included mention of what the U.S. should give Israel in exchange for being our faithful ally. These include planes to carry bunker busters and the bombs themselves to allow Israel to attack Iran on its own. Whether this will come to pass, we shall see.

In the meantime, this short piece at LobeLog offers several reasons why the Israelis military might not want the planes and bombs, even if Netanyahu does. I'd be curious to know what you military strategists make of the argument.

Margaret Steinfels

"Sending MOPS and Bombers to Israel Big Mistake"

ISW paper on the al-Nusra Front in Syria

 

"JN is more subtle and insidious than ISIS, and is therefore more difficult to contain or defeat. While ISIS pursues direct, overt, and top-down control, JN leverages an elite military force to win allies among the Syrian armed opposition and to sponsor locally tailored governance in ungoverned areas of Syria. JN has benefitted from the lack of effective Western intervention in Syria. It has further benefitted from the radicalization of the Syrian opposition after September 2013, when the decision by the U.S. not to intervene in Syria demoralized large segments of the opposition. JN has a flow of foreign fighters and contributes asymmetric “special forces” capabilities to opposition forces, securing prominent victories for rebel campaigns through its contributions to wider military efforts. The significance of this contribution increased in late 2013 and throughout 2014, as a lack of international engagement in Syria increased the relative importance of JN’s contribution to the fighting. As such, JN’s military campaign has earned it significant leverage with other rebel groups. At the end of 2014, the rise of ISIS changed the Syrian wartime environment and forced meaningful shifts in JN’s disposition in Syria. These shifts, over time, may begin to impact its network of rebel allies. However, JN’s success in establishing influence within rebel ranks has kept JN from losing popular support in the short-term, despite an increasingly aggressive stance. It is therefore unlikely that JN’s embedded position within rebel ranks will unravel without additional outside pressure."  Caffarella

---------------

This paper was published late 2014.  Somehow I missed it.  I think that this is an excellent primer on the other main jihadi force in Syria.  IS being the more prominent actor just now, it is easy to forget the quality of effort of the jabhat al-nusra force and its greater skill in the political struggle to shape  a post Assad Syria.

Any paper has points in it that are the product of different interpretations of available data, but IMO this ISW paper is worth a read and retention.  I am going to keep it my data base.  pl 

http://www.understandingwar.org/report/jabhat-al-nusra-syria

Labor Day Closure

pl

"Russian Moves in Syria Pose Concerns for U.S." NY times

"Russia has sent a military advance team to Syria and is taking other steps the United States fears may signal that President Vladimir V. Putin is planning to vastly expand his military support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, administration officials said Friday.

The Russian moves, including the recent transport of prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people to a Syrian airfield and the delivery of a portable air traffic control station there, are another complicating factor in Secretary of State John Kerry’s repeated efforts to enlist Mr. Putin’s support for a diplomatic solution to the bloody conflict in Syria.

The Russians have also filed military overflight requests with neighboring countries through September.    

American officials acknowledge that they are not certain of Russia’s intentions, but some say the temporary housing suggests that Russia could deploy as many as 1,000 advisers or other military personnel to the airfield near the Assad family’s ancestral home. The airfield serves Latakia, Syria’s principal port city.                                                                                        

Other American officials say they see no indication that Russia intends to deploy significant numbers of ground forces, but they say the housing would enable Russia to use the airfield as a major hub for ferrying in military supplies for the Syrian government, or possibly as a launching pad for Russian airstrikes in support of Mr. Assad’s forces.

American intelligence analysts are also looking at ship loadings in Russia to determine what might be bound for Syria, and one official speculated that the Russian deployment might eventually grow to 2,000 to 3,000 personnel."  NY Times

---------------

It pains me to find something good in Michael Gordon's work but this is a thorough article.  Perhaps Eric Schmitt is responsible. 

IMO, for these two journos to have this much input from US officials means that the US Government is "softening the blow" for the American people in anticipation of an unannounced accommodation with Russia over this and perhaps even acquiescence in the Russian policy determination that the Syrian government should not disappear and then be replaced by God knows what.

Putin's statement at Vladivostok should not be interpreted as a definitive nyet!  The Russians are masters of the art of disinformation and misdirection to cover their actions and plans.

It seems clear that Russia's plan is to sufficiently reinforce the Syrian government to enable negotiations with the more "healthy" rebel groups so as to create a Syrian base for a coalition struggle against the jihadis.  Turkey's actual allegiances make such a process problematic. 

"Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer who now studies Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that Mr. Putin’s intentions were clear. 'All this tells me is that the Russians are not backing away from the Assad regime,' he said."  NY Times

You got that right, Jeff.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/05/world/middleeast/russian-moves-in-syria-pose-concerns-for-us.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-upping-military-intervention-in-syria-2015-9 

RUSSIAN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE IN SYRIA - ANOTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATION

By Patrick BAHZAD

Following Parts 1 and 2 of "Russian expeditionary force in Syria", posted recently on SST, various narratives were offered as an explanation for this alleged move and its potential implications. Col. LANG gave the most up-to-date summary of the recent sequence of events. While it is difficult to assess the scope of the Russian involvement, it would be premature to assume a large scale Russian deployment is underway. As Col. LANG duly notes, what seems beyond doubt is that "Russia has decided to raise the level of its intervention and risk in the Syrian Civil War" and that "the ultimate scope and size of that increased role are unclear as yet".

Rumours, comments and half-truths are very common in fluid environments such as this. Various news-outlets are offering different theories regarding a large-scale Russian operation about to start in Syria. With information and evidence being often sketchy at best, it is most likely that various players in and outside the region are trying to push their agenda, either vis-à-vis Syria or vis-à-vis Russia. Trusting partisan and biased information, i.e. MSM accounts quoting "official sources", would obviously be a mistake. That is why this piece offers a totally different read on the reasons and goals of the Russian move, just for the sake of argument.

Preventing a another Libya

Before getting to the core of the scenario that could explain events on the ground, it may be useful to recall the Libyan precedent: a "no fly zone" implemented by NATO under a UN-resolution was hijacked – in the Russians' view – to support the anti-Gaddafi insurgents and give them close air support for several months, until the Libyan dictator was finally ousted from power.

Ever since the start of the civil war in Syria, the Russians have always made it clear that they would not tolerate another version of the Libyan precedent. In 2013 already, Russian officials made numerous statements formally objecting to a "no fly zone". A few very strongly worded declarations by President Putin himself didn't leave any doubt as to the Russians' willingness to actively oppose such a development.

What has happened in Syria in recent months ?

Looking at recent military operations in Syria, Col. LANG rightly observed that due to Coalition airstrikes in Northern Syria, the Syrian air force was unable to fly combat missions in support of their ground forces, which partially explains the Jihadi insurgents' gains in the region of Aleppo, as well as the extension of the Kurdish YPG "liberated areas" in Northern Syria.

The Obamanites are fools.

Tonight on the Newshour, the toadie John Kirby was asked about the tragedy of the al-Kurdi family wiped out by drowning near Bodrum. Turkey while trying to cross the narrow water to Kos in Greece. He took the opportunity to voice the idiot policy talking points of the Obama Administration with regard to the Syrian Government. "We must remember," he said "that Assad is responsible for this tragedy." Really? How is that? This Kurdish family were from Kobane where the Kurdish YPG fought IS for months. How is Assad responsible for that?  pl

THEME THREAD: SELECTING AND TRAINING MILITARY LEADERS OF TOMORROW

A bit of a mixed bag really, but a topic of high interest no doubt, so let's hear your thoughts about it ! Just so the ideas and suggestions thrown into the discussion keep focused on the topic, here are a few pointers as to what should be considered:

1.  In a military that is more and more focused on technology (key words: "plasma warrior" and "playstation generation"), what place should there be for a 'back to basics' approach in the selection and training process ? I'm talking in particular about combatant branches of the military, which means don't build your case based only on JSOC/SOCOM/SOF type forces please.
2. Ideally, what mental qualities should be displayed, promoted and cultivated among future leaders (talking about COs but also senior NCOs) ? In your eyes - whether you have military experience or not -, has there been a shift in the psychological profile and outlook of military leaders of today, as compared to the past ?
3. How are NCOs and COs selected and trained in your country ? No need for specifics, just educational and military background required, length and nature of the training. Again emphasis on combatant branches of the armed forces.
4. To your knowledge, are there programmes or training courses in your country designed at selecting NCOs or even enlisted men and fast tracking them for CO training ? If not, do you think there should be ? Why ?

All opinions/contributions welcome, as long as you can give accurate information (I will check samples) and argue your case.

Just for clarity sake, the "female in the military" topic was addressed extensively in a recent thread by TTG about the "Ranger Tab". If you want to add anything about that issue, please do so in the comments section of TTG's piece.

Patrick Bahzad

 

Russian Expeditionary Force in Syria - Part 2

 

"Just how far is Russia prepared to go to back the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad?

Recent sightings of brand new Russian armoured vehicles in Syria, of types never previously supplied to its ally, suggest that with the Assad regime suffering serious reverses, Moscow is intent on redressing the military balance.

On 20 August, a heavily-laden Alligator class landing ship of the Russian Navy, the Nikolay Filchenkov, was seen passing southwards through the Bosphorus.

On board, according to experts who have analysed the images, were trucks and armoured vehicles.

The ship was believed to be on its way to Syria."  BBC 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131573

---------------

I suppose that the BBC's people qualify as "real journalists."

I have been probing the available access in Washington and New York and the following points have emerged:

-  The US Government believes that Russia has decided to raise the level of its intervention and risk in the Syrian Civil War.

- The ultimate scope and size of that increased role are unclear as yet.

- Russian motivation for this increased role is directly related to Russian discontent with Iran's focus in Syria.

        Russia sees a need to maintain the existence of the government of the state of Syria believing that the alternative to the present multi-confessional dictatorship would not be a secular and liberal regime.  The Russian belief is that the inevitable replacement government would be another jihadi state run by IS or Nusra (AQ)

        Russia believes that Iran in its efforts in Syria is not sufficiently focused on the absolute need for governmental survival with or without Bashar Assad.  The Russians believe that the Iranians in their policy and power projection in Syria are more concerned with protection of the Shia population of Lebanon than with the survival of secular government in Syria.   To that end the IRGC Quds force in Syria and their Lebanese Hizbullah allies are intent on holding the line of the anti-Lebanon range against Sunni jihadi invasion of Lebanon.  This is reflected in the recent maximum effort by these Shia forces and to some extent the Lebanese Army in the Qalamoun sector and especially around the town of Zabadani. 

        The media often describe the Alawi sect as Shia.  It is not.  The sect represents beliefs and doctrines so heterodox that they can only be described by orthodox Sunni or Shia 'ulema (scholars) as heretical.  The Syrian constitution had to be modified to allow the elder Assad to be president because the constitution required that the president be a Muslim and the opinion of all but the Alawis was that Alawis are not Muslims let alone Shia.  The present Syrian government while multi-confessional is dominated by Alawis.  The Iranians are acutely aware of this.

- To rectify this situation the Russians will increase their "stake" in the survival of the Syrian government.  It is believed that the Russian will introduce air units to provide close air support for the Syrian Army.  The Russians will build another maritime facility in the Latakia area on the Syrian coast in the heart of Alawi home territory.  This facility could have many useful functions but the need for Russian possession of sufficient throughput for sea transported goods in an expanded Russian presence is obvious.  Air transported supply for a large presence is never sufficient. 

- The Israeli Air Force has been engaged in providing air support to the Nusra (AQ) led rebel forces south of Damascus.  The situation of these rebels is now complicated by the entry of IS forces in the southern Damascus suburbs.  They came in from the east and are now as much engaged in fighting the Nusra Front led rebels as they are in fighting Syrian government forces.

-The entry of Russian air units into this struggle south of Damascus will present significant de-confliction problems between them and the Israelis.

- It is increasingly clear that the mere presence of NATO manned Patriot air defense missiles in Hatay Province in Turkey was a significant factor in enabling the Nusra (AQ) jihadi capture of Idlib Province in Syria and that portion of Aleppo Province north of Aleppo city.  The mechanism for this effect is easy to understand.  Patriot battery radars reach far across the border between Turkey and Syria.  Syrian Air Force aircraft entering that space are "painted" by these radars.  For any pilot, to be painted by the target acquisition radars of an air defense battery is a profoundly discouraging experience.  as a result Syrian air did not play a major role in holding back jihadi advances in the area.   This is, of course, precisely what Erdogan had in mind in demanding NATO air defense of Turkey's border.

- The Obama Administration continues to demonstrate an inability to comprehend the simple truth that life and policy making are both things that require the ability to choose between unpalatable alternatives.  In this case the WH, NSC and State Department continue to insist that their desires to destroy Assad's government AND to destroy IS are compatible. 

-It is increasingly clear that President Obama is disengaged from foreign policy and concentrating on what he sees as his revolutionary domestic agenda.  His victory over Bibi/AIPAC in the Iran nuclear deal fracas is likely to be his last serious foreign policy action.  The foreign policy apparat is running on auto-pilot and is in the hands of incompetents like General Allen.  It is reported to me that every interagency foreign policy meeting in the WH begins with a a competitive harangue against Putin and the Russians in what has become a mythic self-generated "struggle" against an imagined rival.  In that  atmosphere the ultimate US reaction to increased Russian activity n Syria can nor be predicted.  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/09/02/russias-involvement-in-syria-might-be-ramping-up/

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-civil-war-russians-filmed-fighting-alongside-president-assads-forces-10483842.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11840713/Russian-troops-fighting-alongside-Assads-army-against-Syrian-rebels.html 

 

Kissinger on Ukraine (by CP)

 

The National Interest's Jacob Heilbrunn recently interviewed Henry Kissinger. The interview contained the following exchange that stood out from the garbage peddled in US media on Ukraine for its clarity.

"Heilbrunn: How do you think the United States can extricate itself from the Ukraine impasse—the United States and Europe, obviously?

Kissinger: The issue is not to extricate the United States from the Ukrainian impasse but to solve it in a way conducive to international order. A number of things need to be recognized. One, the relationship between Ukraine and Russia will always have a special character in the Russian mind. It can never be limited to a relationship of two traditional sovereign states, not from the Russian point of view, maybe not even from Ukraine’s. So, what happens in Ukraine cannot be put into a simple formula of applying principles that worked in Western Europe, not that close to Stalingrad and Moscow. In that context, one has to analyze how the Ukraine crisis occurred. It is not conceivable that Putin spends sixty billion euros on turning a summer resort into a winter Olympic village in order to start a military crisis the week after a concluding ceremony that depicted Russia as a part of Western civilization.

So then, one has to ask: How did that happen? I saw Putin at the end of November 2013. He raised a lot of issues; Ukraine he listed at the end as an economic problem that Russia would handle via tariffs and oil prices. The first mistake was the inadvertent conduct of the European Union. They did not understand the implications of some of their own conditions. Ukrainian domestic politics made it look impossible for Yanukovych to accept the EU terms and be reelected or for Russia to view them as purely economic. So the Ukrainian president rejected the EU terms. The Europeans panicked, and Putin became overconfident. He perceived the deadlock as a great opportunity to implement immediately what had heretofore been his long-range goal. He offered fifteen billion dollars to draw Ukraine into his Eurasian Union. In all of this, America was passive [Really? Was it? CP]. There was no significant political discussion with Russia or the EU of what was in the making. Each side acted sort of rationally based on its misconception of the other, while Ukraine slid into the Maidan uprising right in the middle of what Putin had spent ten years building as a recognition of Russia’s status. No doubt in Moscow this looked as if the West was exploiting what had been conceived as a Russian festival to move Ukraine out of the Russian orbit. Then Putin started acting like a Russian czar—like Nicholas I over a century ago. I am not excusing the tactics, only setting them in context.
...

Kissinger: If we treat Russia seriously as a great power, we need at an early stage to determine whether their concerns can be reconciled with our necessities. We should explore the possibilities of a status of nonmilitary grouping on the territory between Russia and the existing frontiers of NATO.

The West hesitates to take on the economic recovery of Greece; it’s surely not going to take on Ukraine as a unilateral project. So one should at least examine the possibility of some cooperation between the West and Russia in a militarily nonaligned Ukraine. The Ukraine crisis is turning into a tragedy because it is confusing the long-range interests of global order with the immediate need of restoring Ukrainian identity. I favor an independent Ukraine in its existing borders. I have advocated it from the start of the post-Soviet period. When you read now that Muslim units are fighting on behalf of Ukraine, then the sense of proportion has been lost.

Heilbrunn: That’s a disaster, obviously.

Kissinger: To me, yes. It means that breaking Russia has become an objective; the long-range purpose should be to integrate it.

Heilbrunn: But we have witnessed a return, at least in Washington, DC, of neoconservatives and liberal hawks who are determined to break the back of the Russian government.

Kissinger: Until they face the consequences. The trouble with America’s wars since the end of the Second World War has been the failure to relate strategy to what is possible domestically. The five wars we’ve fought since the end of World War II were all started with great enthusiasm. But the hawks did not prevail at the end. At the end, they were in a minority. We should not engage in international conflicts if, at the beginning, we cannot describe an end, and if we’re not willing to sustain the effort needed to achieve that end.

Heilbrunn: But we seem to recapitulate this over and over again.

Kissinger: Because we refuse to learn from experience. Because it’s essentially done by an ahistorical people. In schools now, they don’t teach history anymore as a sequence of events. They deal with it in terms of themes without context.

Heilbrunn: So they’ve stripped it of all context.

Kissinger: Of what used to be context—they put it in an entirely new context."

Wiki on present state of Syria war

Overall conflict (2011–present)[edit]

Ba'athist Syria and allies	Syrian Opposition al-Qaeda network and allies	Kurdish self-administration and allies	Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and allies
Syrian government forces Syrian Armed Forces National Defence Force Jaysh al-Sha'bi Suqur al-Sahara Allied armed groups: Liwa Abu al-Fadhal al-Abbas[1] Badr Organization[2] Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq[2] Kata'ib Hezbollah[3] Peace Companies[4] PFLP–GC[5] Syrian Social Nationalist Party[6] Jaysh al-Muwahhideen[6] Forces of Abu Ibrahim[7] Liwa Fatemiyoun[8] Palestine Liberation Army[9] Syrian Resistance [10] Ba'ath Brigades[11] Fatah al-Intifada[12] Liwa Al Quds Arab Democratic Party[13] Houthis[14] RPLP-F[15] Patriotic Party (Turkey)[16] Mavros Krinos Sootoro Arab Nationalist Guard[17] Liwa Dhu al-Fiqar[18][19] Jaysh al-Wafaa[20] Faylak Wa’ad al-Sadiq[21] al-Berri clan[22][23] Tayy tribe militias[24] al-Jihesh tribe militias[25] Maghawir Forces[26] Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Popular Committees (2012) Slavonic Corps[27][28] (2013) Hezbollah[29]  Iran[30][31][32] Quds Force[33] Basij[34][35][36] Revolutionary Guards[37] Armament support:  Russia[38][39]  North Korea[40][41][42]  Iraq[43]  Belarus[44] Non-lethal support:  Venezuela[45][46][47][48][49]  Angola[50]  China[51][52]	Syrian Revolutionary Command Council Free Syrian Army Southern Front Syria Revolutionaries Front Jarabulus Brigade Al-Qassas Army Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa[53] Jihad in the Path of God Brigade[54] Dawn of Freedom Brigades Northern Sun Battalion[55] Knights of Justice Brigade Thuwar al-Sham Battalions[56] Homs Liberation Movement[57] Shields of the Revolution Council Falcons of al-Ghab 101st Division 13th Division 16th Division[58][59] 46th Division[60][61] 111th Division[62][63] Jabhat Ansar al-Islam Falcons of Mount Zawiya Brigade 1st Infantry Brigade 1st Coastal Division al-Rahman Legion Farouq Brigades New Syrian Forces (30th Division)[64][65] Allied armed groups: Islamic Front Ahrar ash-Sham Jaysh al-Islam Al-Tawhid Brigade Al-Fawj al-Awal[66] Northern Storm Brigade Ansar al-Sham Junud al-Sham Abu Amara Battalions[67] Abu Jaafar Battalion[67] Liwa al-Fatah[68] Liwa Usud al-Jadoor[69] Army of Mujahedeen Authenticity and Development Front Jaysh Usud al-Sharqiya Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki Fastaqim Kama Umirt Ajnad al-Sham Islamic Union[70] Sham Legion[71] Criterion Brigades Mustafa Martyrs Brigade Syrian Turkmen Brigades Sultan Murad Brigade Sultan Mohamed Fatah Brigade Muslim Brotherhood of Syria[72] Hamas[73][74] Joint operations rooms: Army of Conquest Battle of Victory[75][76] Euphrates Volcano Jaish al-Salam[77][78] Unified Military Command of Eastern Ghouta[79][80] Fatah Halab[81][82] Ansar al-Sharia[83] Jaish al-Haramoun[84] Itisam bi Allah[85] Jaysh al-Nasr[86][87][88][89] Jaysh al-Tawheed[90][91] Labbayki Ya Oktah[92][93] Jaysh Omar[94] Armament support:  Qatar[95][96]  Saudi Arabia[95][97]  Turkey  United States[98][99]  Libya[100]  France[101]  Egypt (until 2013)  United Arab Emirates (until 2014)[102][103][104]  Jordan (until 2014)[105] Non-lethal support:  United Kingdom[106]  Canada[107]  Germany[108] Jihadists: Al-Nusra Front Khorasan Group[109] Jaish Ansar Al Din[110] Jabhat Ansar al-Din[111] Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar Harakat Fajr ash-Sham al-Islamiya Harakat Sham al-Islam Ghuraba al-Sham[112] Fatah al-Islam[113][114][115] Muhajirin wa-Ansar Alliance[116] Jund al-Aqsa Liwaa al-Umma Liwa al-Haqq Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan[117][118][119] Turkestan Islamic Party[75][120][121][122][123] Islamic Muthanna Movement[124]	Kurdish Supreme Committee People's Protection Units (YPG) Women's Protection Units (YPJ) Asayish[125] Self-Defence Forces (HXP)[126] Allied armed groups: Kurdistan Workers' Party [127] People's Defence Forces Yekîtî Party International Freedom Battalion MLKP [128] TİKKO United Liberation Forces (tr:Birleşik Özgürlük Güçleri)[129] MLSPB-Devrim Cephesi Reconstrucción Comunista Euphrates Volcano Jabhat al-Akrad Northern Sun Battalion[55] Liwa al-Tawhid Al-Qassas Army Jarabulus Brigade Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa Jihad in the Path of God Brigade Jaysh al-Thuwar[130][131] Jaish al-Salam[77] TKP-Kivilcim Devrimci Karargah Social Revolt (Sosyal İsyan) Arab Tribes Jaysh Al-Sanadeed [132] Sharabiyya tribe militias Zubayd tribe militias[133] Iraqi Kurdistan Peshmerga Syriac Union Party Syriac Military Council (MFS)[134] Sutoro[135] Khabour Guards Armament support: Iraqi Kurdistan Kurdistan Regional Government[136] Kurdistan Democratic Party[137] Patriotic Union of Kurdistan[137] Peshmerga  Syria[138][139][140][141]  France[142] Intervention airstrikes:  United States  Saudi Arabia  Qatar  Jordan  Bahrain  United Arab Emirates  Morocco  Canada[143] Non-lethal support:  United Kingdom (surveillance)	Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Military of ISIL See: Syrian opposition–ISIL Conflict Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade[144][145] (allegedly)[146] Jaysh al-Jihad [147]

 

Current military situation in the Syrian Civil War.

  Controlled by Syrian Government forces

  Controlled by Kurdish forces (Rojava)

  Controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

  Controlled by al-Nusra Front

  Controlled by Syrian opposition forces

(For a more detailed map, see Cities and towns during the Syrian Civil War)

 

Russian Expeditionary Force in Syria?

 

"Although Russia sees Assad as "spent," Moscow still does not want to see the regime crumble. But it seems unwilling to insert itself into Syria's geopolitical nightmare, at a huge political and economic cost, to support a figure that it ultimately believes is on the way out. 

"It is willing to see a settlement in which Assad goes into honorable exile, likely in Russia itself," Galeotti said. "Obviously Russia would not want the regime to fall, but what can they really do? The Russians could surge in Damascus, say approximately 5,000 troops. But they're actually probably deploying and cycling as many troops as they can in Donbas [eastern Ukraine] without overstretch.""

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-assad-syria-civil-war-2015-9#ixzz3kVykgPU6

**********

"In the coming weeks thousands of Russian military personnel are set to touch down in Syria, including advisors, instructors, logistics personnel, technical personnel, members of the aerial protection division, and the pilots who will operate the aircraft. 

Past reports have stated that the Russians were in talks to sell the Syrians a package of MiG-29 fighter jets, and Yak-130 trainer jets (which can also serve as attack aircraft.) The current makeup of the expeditionary force is still unknown, but there is no doubt that Russian pilots flying combat missions in Syrian skies will definitely change the existing dynamics in the Middle East."  YNET

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4696268,00.html

 **********

 "The Patriot missiles had been installed by NATO in Turkey as from January 2013, in order to prevent the Syrian Air Force from deploying on the frontier. As a result, the jihadists of the al-Nusra Front (al-Qaïda) were able to seize the North of the country, and as from the summer of 2014, this no-fly zone was occupied by the Islamic Emirate.

Thus, during the battle of Kobane, the Syrian Air Force were unable to bomb the Islamic Emirate, and Syria was obliged to attempt a land attack to save the city. Since it was unable to advance the last thirty kilometres, the Atlantist Press presented the Kurdish forces of the YPG as being independent of Damascus, although the Syrian Arab Republic had supplied it with weapons and was paying its soldiers.

The Patriot missiles, initially deployed by Germany and Holland, are today German and Spanish. They will first of all be revised and modernised, then redeployed in Lithuania, at the Russian frontier."  Voltairenet 

http://www.voltairenet.org/article188522.html

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 I can't confirm any of this yet - Soon.  It makes a lot of sense to me in this situation.  If there is real WH consent to this, then that is indicative of 1- weakening Israeli/AIPAC policy power in the US government.  Bibi and company have wanted Assad destroyed in order to pursue their vendetta against Hizbullah and Iran 2- USMC General (ret.) Allen will probably soon be gone having made a fool's bargain with Erdogan in which Erdogan completely duped him into supporting Erdogan's war against Kurds (America's allies) 3- The NATO installation of Patriot missiles on the Turkish/Syrian border assisted the Nusra led Islamist and other rebels to occupy Idlib Province and the area between Aleppo and the Turkish border north of the city.  How?  NATO in effect provided air defense for the rebels against the Syrian Air Force who might have prevented the takeover.  The Western media and the R2Pers also bear responsibility for this through constant propaganda about "barrel bombs," and "chlorine gas."

In a related matter, it appears that David Petraeus, the disgraced four star general (one of the Great Captains according to Joe Scarborough) still has an audience among the cretins in the NSC staff and State Department.  He is pushing the idea that the US should back the "moderates" in the Nusra Front (al-Qa'ida)  That these people are the sworn enemies of the US means nothing to him.  I wonder where he got that "idea."  pl