The coming collapse of the Syrian government

 
"A spokesman for Ahrar Al Sham said that the organization accepted to negotiate. The talks started in the beginning of August in Istanbul and ended with a deal on a short cease fire without solving the problem. “The Iranians have gone mad. They want us to give up Zabadani, move its people out, and in return they will move all the inhabitants of Kafraya and Foua’a and relocate them in a site close to the Lebanese borders or in the Rif of Hama. They warned us and the Turks that if we capture the two villages, they will move the Shia inhabitants out anyway but will then reduce the two villages to rubbles. They will level them to earth. We refused the offer”, the Spokesman said.

The Iranians have not gone mad. They are simply implementing what we described previously as “Plan B”. It is obvious that the trilateral alliance has a clear concept of how Syria will be partitioned. Zabadani will be the spring board to clear the southern Damascus belt of either opposition presence or Sunni presence or both if necessary. The idea is to secure Qalamoun and Damascus, re-enforce defenses around the controlled stretch of territory that includes Hama and then see what will come in the diplomatic channels.

While it is normal that the joint Assad-Hezbollah-IRGC command has a clear division of labor that serves one clear plan, it is not obvious that the Syrian opposition has a unified parallel plan, either to abort the trilateral partitioning intentions or to wage a meaningful counter-attack."  Middle East Briefing

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It is clear now that the scheming and maneuvering of the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have finally weakened the Syrian government enough to being about its downfall in the not too far distant future.

The impending emergence of Iran from international isolation reduces the willingness of the Iranian government to endlessly, and expensively continue to support the Syrian government.  The IRGC may wish to fight on forever in Syria but the government and the Ayatollahs probably do not.

The Arab author of this piece is hostile to the Syrian government but IMO he has it right when he speculates that what he calls the "trilateral alliance" (Syrian Army/IRGC/Hizbullah) now see their best chance of salvaging something from the coming "train wreck" as being a demography based partition agreed to at some negotiating table.  Such a partition will require considerable ethno-sectarian cleansing and transfer of populations from areas to areas, something like the Ataturk/Venizelos transfer of the 20s.   

IMO the jihadis of various colorations will dominate post Assad Syria.  They will struggle over the extent of their territories and the Alawis, Shia and Christians will become residents of a besieged coastal enclave or reduced to dhimmitude under the jihadis.

Will the "trilateral alliance" be able to hold Damascus very long after Assad departs?  I doubt it, and then the butchery will really begin.  pl  

http://mebriefing.com/?p=1872

http://iswsyria.blogspot.com/2015/08/syrian-rebel-forces-pressure-regime.html 

Comments

[Kutte]

Colonel, you did not mention what you think Russia is going to do.

[turcopolier]

kutte

I think they have reached a point at which they will accept a negotiated solution that partitions Syria. they have a lot of trouble with an increasingly unpredictable US and have been showing signs of weariness with the whole thing. Lavrov's reported reaction to the various Syrians showed a great deal of frustration. pl

[William R. Cumming]

How many Syrian refugees in Lebanon and what is their makeup?

[Kutte]

Colonel, I read reports in the internet that a Russian S-300 shot down an Israeli F16. This was not reported in the west, and, strangely, not even denied. If true, it would indicate a hardening of Russia. Also, I was under the impression the Syrian war was over a pipeline from Qatar, which would weaken Russia's position against Europe. So, I would not be to sure that Russia gets out because everybody else wants a deal. Time will tell of course.

[turcopolier]

kutte

Once you hand over munitions, they are no longer yours and you cannot control their use. The war in Syria is not about economics. It is about communal conflict. pl

[The Beaver]

WRC

Are you watching what has been happening in Beirut for the past 2/3 days?

[FB Ali]

"...the jihadis of various colorations...will struggle over the extent of their territories..."

Certainly to start with. However, IMO there is a distinct likelihood that they will agree to jointly rule over the seized territory, which will gradually lead to one of them (probably IS) absorbing the others.

[turcopolier]

FB Ali
Certainly. pl

[Amir]

Would blocking E.U. Markets to Turkey have any effect on it's support for ISIS?

[Mishkilji]

Disagree that partition dooms the Syrian government. It seems Plan B is a reduced rump state in which the remnants of the SARG still cling to power. This appears likely.

The Iranians still need a friendly entity in Damascus to provide Hizbollah strategic depth, hence the operations in Zabadani and Qalamoun. The ethic terra-forming has already occurred in Homs, which remains the geographic center of gravity in this fight.

Bashar may have to go, but he will be replaced by someone the Iranians believe will suit their interests.

If Damascus falls to the opposition, the chances of another Israeli adventure in Lebanon (similar to 2006) rise significantly.

[turcopolier]

mishkilji

I don't care what you call it. That is still partition. pl

[MartinJ]

It is beyond me that the EU - now struggling with an unprecedented wave of migration from all countries (40,000 arrived from Syria to the EU last month) - is unable to act in its own collective self interest regarding Syria.

Instead it suffers potential destabilisation while the architects of this war (namely Israel and the Saudis) bear no consequences. There are no Syrians trying to get to Israel or to Qatar. They know they would be shot trying to enter. US policy in Syria has no direct consequences on the US, it is free to play, just as it does in Ukraine, without fear of immediate consequence. Just the distant and apparently implausible idea that all this might be weakening the US in the long term.

Where next for Europe I wonder? Lebanon? Egypt? Perhaps there will be some kind of "solution" for the Kurds and Europe will be flooded with Kurds from Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Tunisia? Algeria? The madness of this logic doesn't end.

[confusedponderer]

"they have a lot of trouble with an increasingly unpredictable US"

There, as if to illustrate the point, is IMO a distinct chance that if R's come in, they might just bomb Iran anyway, deal, schmeal.

Actually, everybody does have a lot of trouble with an increasingly unpredictable US, and I wished American politicians would come to understand that as the LIABILITY that it is in foreign policy.

LIABILITY as in 'peril' and 'interesting times'.

However, despite the disturbing continuity that characterises many of Obama's policies, it has to be pointed out in fairness that even the chaotic, unpredictable ways of Obama administration are progress from predictably stupid foreign policies of the Bush years.

[Mishkilji]

Agree it is partition. But where is the analytic connective tissue that links partition to government downfall? Why can't a rump state survive?

[turcopolier]

mishkilji

A rump state that is essentially a coastal enclave in Alawi country may well survive. I don't think the present Alawi led coalition of forces that support the government can hold Damascus very long in the context of a general collapse of government positions in much of the country. pl

[William R. Cumming]

That is why I am asking!

[William R. Cumming]

P.L. and ALL: If Partition were a given for Syria what drawing of lines would be best for future stability?

[Babak Makkinejad]

You do not understand; extremist action to oppose Iranian power is no vice and accommodation with Tehran is no virtue.

Shia are the Manichean bad-guys and head-choppers - while appalling - are needed to oppose the Shia.

Once the Shia are gone from the scene, the head-choppers could be controlled.

[Babak Makkinejad]

May be Syria and Lebanon can now be combined into a single country.

[Poul]

IS and al-Nusra will no doubt do their best to try. And I can't see the Lebanese unifying in order to stop them.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The best recipe for stability is to bring the Seljuks back.

Just as it would be best in Europe to resurrect the Austro-Hungarian Republic.

[Babak Makkinejad]

EU states can break with US on the Middle East and dismantle their Cold War against the Shia Crescent.

They can start by making loans to Syrian government to buy weapons, material, consumer goods etc.

The English are pumping oil out of Basra - BP; may be the rest of EU could be as practical as the Perfidious Albion.

When did France become the enemy of the Shia and Iran - I wonder.

[Matthew]

BM: re-combined?

[Farooq]

In your opinion, what are the ultimate aims of western powers regarding Iran? By western powers I mean US, UK, France, Germany, Canada and Australia to name a few.

[confusedponderer]

Partition or not, who says that the Jihadis will stop fighting?

In short term, sure, but then? For how long will an armistice last? Probably they'll use the time to consolidate and then fight again. I think that anybody who suggests otherwise is kidding himself.

ISIS and JaN are IRRECONCILABLE towards 'apostates' or 'heathen', be they Jezidi, Shia, Druze, Bahai, Zoroastrians, Alawi or Alevi, same goes for Christians and Jews. Period.

The Izzies are lunatics if they think that they'd rather have Jihadis next door rather than the Syrian government. The nutters usually firing rockets at them from Gaza usually are dissident Al Qaeda type Jihadis for whom Hamas is too soft. And they aid and abet something like that to develop in southern Syria because it is anti-Assad? Insane.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-191214.html