Thoughts on Turkey and the Kurds (by CP)

 

Turkey and the Kurds

The relations between Turks and 'Mountain Turks' i.e. Kurds is a long and bitter one. Of late there has been relative calm for a while since the arrest of PKK leader Ocalan, and Erdogan's peace ouvertures to the Kurds.

Erdogan's spelt out his peace terms in a way ponly an Islamist could, which in substance can be summed up as 'Forget about your irredentism, aren't we all Muslims? Come into the fold!' Given that many Kurds are leftists (i.e. secular), that cannot have been all that appealing.

Stirring the pot ...

In foreign policy, Erdogan has switched from zero-problems with our neighbours to zero-friends, embracing with both arms regime change in Syria after the Arab Spring.

Assad had given Syria's Kurds a degree of autonomy at the beginning of the civil war, probably to prevent his forces from overstretch and based on the insight that he wouldn't be able to hold these territories anyway. That caused the Turks even more headaches than they already had over the Kurds, because they saw in this the looming spectre of Kurdish statehood.

Erdogan's tool of choice to remedy that has been Islamist groups, notably ISIS, which has been expanding in Iraq and Syria at the expense of Kurds and the Iraqi and Syrian governments alike. Erdogan's support for ISIS is rather well documented by now:

• Turkey is supporting ISIS
• 'ISIS Sees Turkey as Its Ally': Former Islamic State Member Reveals Turkish Army Cooperation
• Here's why Turkey isn't helping save Syria's Kobani from ISIS

Recently, Turkey has also been carrying out airstrikes at PKK targets, apparently with US approval. The concession underlines the extent to which US influence on Turkey is practically limited, just as it is limited in the case of Saudi Arabia bombing of Yemen. Even when the US think it's a bad idea, there is little they can do to stop it, and opposing it would only further reduce leverage.

It appears that vis a vis the Kurds the Turkish strategy was from the onset to use ISIS to squeeze the Kurds in Syria and Iraq and prevent them from declaring a Kurdish state (the seizure of Mosul, the 'Kurdish Jerusalem', was a major blow to Kurdish aspirations). Doing that, Erdogan ignored that when you put pressure on an ethnicity that lives in four countries in that way, it is near impossible to localise the conflict.

... 'til it spills over

Predictably, ISIS eventually carried their fight into Turkey proper, when one of their suicide bombers murdered 30 and wounded 100 in the town of Suruc, across the border from Kobane. According to the BBC, Kurdish activists in Suruc played a vital role during the siege of Kobane, sending food and medicine to the YPG Kurdish fighters to bolster their supplies.

The victims belong to the Kurdish youth movement of Federation of Socialist Youth Associations. Many representatives of the pro-Kurdish party HDP, which had a strong and unprecedented showing in the last election, hail from that movement.

Low expecations

If Erdogan lives up to expectations, official investigations into the matter will be lukewarm, and the blanket veil of secrecy cast over the affair (and Turkish support for ISIS in general) suggests that not much will come out of it. Turkey initially blocked Twitter access to stall Suruc bomb coverage.

It appears Erdogan is invested in supporting ISIS against Assad and the Kurds. That would appear even more so, if there is something to the story that his daughter is running a hospital that is secretly treating ISIS fighters. But then, the Middle East is an effing rumour mill.

In any event, Erdogan has eventually succeeded in not only soundly alienating the Kurds, but in destabilising not only Syria but Turkey itself also. Quite a feat.

Comments

[alba etie]

All
MSM is reporting that Turkey is convening a NATO summit regarding ISIS . Will Erdogan go after the Syrian No Fly Zone at this meeting again ?

[confusedponderer]

Likely, IMO.

I have a hunch that Erdogan will try to double down on his investment in ISIS and Syria.

[alba etie]

CP
( SIGH ) ... what could possibly go wrong having Tayyip providing air support for the Liver Eaters ...

[The Virginian]

Another nuance is Erdogan's efforts to use Barzani to exert indirect influence over the course of intra-Kurdish dynamics. If Barzani brought Kirkuk into a future independent Kurdistan, the PUK would then have the largest demographic thus undermining Barzani. In turn, the PYD and Barzani / KDP are long time rivals, thus Erdogan uses Barzani as a counter to would be PYD leadership. Ankara will pressure Barzani for more action to constrain the PKK, which undermines Barzani. At the same time Ankara wants access to Kurdish hydrocarbons at a discounted rate for resale at full market rates at Ceyhan (Ankara pockets the difference) and to power Turkish development. Keep Erbil as an economic vassal, but short of statehood, or perhaps something akin to Somaliland's status. This may force Barzani's hand in time.

Then the issue of arming Erbil / KDP pesh at the expense of other pesh units tied to the PUK (and Gorran?) which could foment future intra-Kurd violence in Iraq. A complex mix to say the least.

[Babak Makkinejad]

CP:

Turkish leaders have now positioned Turkey between the proverbial a Rock and a Hard Place.

This course of action will result, in ripeness of time, in the destabilization of 19 provinces of Turkey that are inhabited by Kurds and Alawites/Alevis.

Last week, ISIS murdered 34 Kurdish youth inside Turkey. One supposes that as long as ISIS murders Turkish citizens of Kurdish extraction, all is fine with the Turkish leaders.

Likewise for the Alevis.

This will be a long and bloody story.

[turcopolier]

All

Erdogan has now succeeded in luring the administration of the Goat Boy Messiah (GBM) into entering a tentative deal to help him bring about the realization of his nationalist dreams of Kurdiah downfall as well as US air support for the unicorn army of "moderate" Syrian rebels. Could we be more screwed up here in the United States of Jenner? pl

[mike]

Sanliurfa is where those 32 Kurds were killed and another 100 were injured by a Daesh bomb attack. Wasn't Sanliurfa known as Edessa back in the earlier times where at the battle of Edessa the Roman Emperor Valerian was captured and imprisoned by Shapur the First of the Sassanid Empire????

[HankP]

CP -

Any chance this is a direct quid pro quo, as in Turkey trading support for ISIS if they get the green light to attack Kurds?

[Valissa]

Will the Kurds go the way of the Jacobites? Hopefully not.

Today is the anniversary of the Battle of Killiecrankie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Killiecrankie

Here's a fabulous version of... Killiecrankie by The Picts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3Kp590Ovsw

[different clue]

I would imagine that Erdogan is perfectly happy, satisfied and pleased about the ISIS bombing of young secular Kurds in Turkey near Kobane. He will do just enough by way of cursory inconclusive investigation and so forth so as to appear displeased with the bombing itself. But he personally feels that the ISIS suicide bomber bombed some of the right people and none of the wrong ones. Would I be too cynical about what Erdogan is privately thinking?

[Matthew]

Col: Yes. Congress could block the Iran deal.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

SST,

It might be beneficial to read about erdogan's rise to power, and identify those who, over the years, supported/support him and his henchmen over the years. It would also be enlightening to identify those who supported/support (funded/fund) the PKK and other Kurdish groups for the past couple of decades. Wars, insurgencies and political revolutions are expensive propositions. Few such undertakings succeed without significant investment or stay successful over the long run without long term commitment of the backers. Libya is an interesting recent example. Remembering to ask "Cui Bono" might help.

Ishmael Zechariah

[Akira]

Four Turkish prosecutors who investigated the Turkish Intelligence Service's role in sending weapons to ISIS are facing life sentences:

http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2015/07/03/life-sentences-sought-for-four-gulen-linked-prosecutors-in-mit-truck-case

http://www.todayszaman.com/national_jailed-prosecutor-says-complacency-towards-salafists-made-suruc-bombing-possible_394534.html

Amazing how this whole scandal has recieved so little attention in the US, even in the so-called "alternative media".

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks for this informative comment!

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks Valissa and I keep my blue body paint handy!