"... as a practical matter, this bill is no more likely to actually stop the deal with Iran than the original version. Under either version, Congress could pass a resolution rejecting the Iran agreement, but Mr. Obama could veto it, meaning he needs to hold onto no more than 34 senators or 146 House members to prevent an override.
Congress is trying to insert itself into a negotiation in which it has played little direct role. Negotiators from six world powers reached a framework agreement with Iran this month to curb its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions, but key details, including when sanctions would be lifted, remain in dispute as the negotiators try to commit the deal to writing by June 30." NY Times
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Iran would be wise to release the Americans it holds.
The Democrats have 44 seats in the US Senate. The Democrats have 188 seats in the House of Representatives. Do the arithmetic. Do you think Obama/Kerry/Biden cannot hang onto enough seats to prevent an override of Obama's veto of a blocking resolution by Congress? Some Republicans will vote with Obama. Bernie Sanders, an independent member of the US Senate, will undoubtedly vote with Obama. Do the arithmetic.
The Likud government of Israel is ordering its minions in the US Congress to vote against Obama. Natanyahu, Naftali Bennett and the like are confronted with the possibility that Israel may not continue to be the chief meddler and dominant power in the ME. The threat they fear is not so much the distant improbability of Iran obliterating Tel Aviv and Haifa. The Iranians know very well that the result of such an attack would be US attacks that would truly obliterate Iran as an existing state. No, what the Israelis fear is the loss of dominance in the ME, the ability to meddle at will and do such stupid things as to act as benefactors for JAN in Syria.
Media flunkies of Likud/AIPAC have been ordered into the fight against the deal. IMO Judy Woodruff, Wolf Blitzer, Jose Diaz-Balart, Andrea Mitchell and the like are trying hard to generate opposition to Obama's deal. The method used is often to "interview" people like Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton to give them the opportunity to attack the deal. The technique of asking "softball" questions so as to provide the chance to rave is a very old technique.
No matter. The effort will fail. The deal will be done. pl
BTW. Colonel (Ret) Larry Wilkerson appeared on TV this morning to defend the deal. He did a superb job. Kudos. pl
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/world/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/1651/
He's doing it well.
Posted by: GulfCoastPirate | 14 July 2015 at 06:47 PM
GCP
I won't disagree with that. I have been asked by people close to him to withdraw my criticism. I do so now. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 14 July 2015 at 06:54 PM
Its been interesting to contrast Wilkerson and Powell. Wilkerson tried to make good. Powell did what was good for Powell.
Posted by: bth | 14 July 2015 at 08:38 PM
Matthew
Yes would welcome Col Lang here in ATX . If it were on a weekend I would be very happy to comp one day or two days of tour guiding and or hanging out with you and Col Lang . We could get BBQ at Stubbs early then go for a picnic at the French Legation .
Very good idea Matthew !
Posted by: alba etie | 14 July 2015 at 08:44 PM
bth
Wilkerson had a wife who summoned him to repentance. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 14 July 2015 at 08:53 PM
"Iran would be wise to release the Americans it holds."
And why would they do that?
They're hardly motivated by the Obama "bend over,way over" method of "negotiation."
Posted by: tv | 14 July 2015 at 09:13 PM
The commenters on this site seem obsessed with Israel - often to the detriment of US security.
I'm still waiting for the Israel "Death to America" national holiday and then seizing the US embassy, just for kicks.
Israel has warts, but Iran has got lots and lots more.
Posted by: tv | 14 July 2015 at 09:17 PM
TV
In the ME chants in the public square are BS. You are mistaken. You challenge the fact that the Israelis are behind resistance to this US negotiated deal? We have a good deal likely to avoid war in this. Bibi and your other friends want the US to destroy Iran for their Morgenthau-like plane for the region. What is your plan for dealing with IS and Nusra? Your Israeli friends are helping the Nusra jihadis? pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 14 July 2015 at 09:23 PM
Tyler,
In the Marines the "A Few Good Whatevers" jokes have already started.
On topic but in a similar spirit: The big orbs Bibi displayed when speaking to the UN assembly have been snipped.
Posted by: Mark Logan | 14 July 2015 at 10:14 PM
Matthew,
You don't mean France recognized Texas as an independent country before it became a state?
Posted by: Fred | 14 July 2015 at 10:30 PM
Sic Semper Tyrannis linked on Memeorandum! The Colonel is moving up!! Props, Sir.
Posted by: DC | 14 July 2015 at 11:17 PM
"Negotiators from six world powers..."
I think that this is the piece that no one really talks about. The US is so caught up in itself that we forget that there are other countries out there in the world. Yes, we do dominate by throwing our weight around, but I think that on this issue no matter what the US does the UN and the rest of the world is going to go ahead with the deal.
Glad that Wilkerson was able to get a spot in between all the rabid hawks. I doubt that, if as you say he did a superb job, he'll be invited back.
Posted by: Huntly | 15 July 2015 at 03:50 AM
tv,
since you're about digging up corpses - the Iranians never tried to sink a US vessel with premeditation in order to pin it on someone else so the US would side with them and against their enemy. You haven't forgotten about the USS Liberty, have you?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident
You haven't forgotten about the Lavon affair either, when Israeli spies bombed US and British targets in Egypt to pin it on Egyptians to turn the US and UK against the Egyptians, Israel's enemy?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavon_Affair
In 2005 Israel honored the surviving operatives of that debacle. Given what that operation was about, I wonder when will they hand out medals for the Liberty.
In tune, it appears that vis a vis Iran, it was the Israelis who by proxy (iirc MEK) provided the IAEA with 'the 'alleged studies' documents i.e. forgeries so the agency and the P5+1 would turn on Iran and the probably non-rexistent PMD.
The Israelis then started their game of 'Hold us back, hold us back, we're REALLY going to bomb them outselves if you don't act now!' The US called that bluff. One can take away from that that Israel REALLY wanted to manipulate the US into bombing Iran for them.
The three examples appear to indicate an established pattern of Israeli thinking vis a vis the US.
That is to say, to stay in your metaphor, Israel has plenty of warts of its own, and with age it has gotten some more. In the absence of plastic surgery, there is only so much filler you can add to even those warts, and even if you do that, they still look like boils (which at least to me is not a pretty sight).
Still, unlike Iran, Israel enjoys the attention of affluent sponsors, fervent adherents and practiced (if hamfisted) plastic surgeons.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 15 July 2015 at 06:28 AM
Fred: Short answer, "kind of." See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_the_Republic_of_Texas
Posted by: Matthew | 15 July 2015 at 10:48 AM
M123: The next president will not be able unilaterally revoke the coming UN resolutions related to the deal.
Posted by: Matthew | 15 July 2015 at 10:49 AM
Huntly: The other point missed is a new relationship with Iran means a new (and quite different) relationship with Saudi Arabia, and, to a lesser extent, with Israel.
Posted by: Matthew | 15 July 2015 at 10:51 AM
Fred
Yes
Posted by: alba etie | 15 July 2015 at 11:43 AM
There were no negotiations with 6 powers:
85% US
15% Russia
EU and China just being in the room.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 15 July 2015 at 11:47 AM
I do not see it.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 15 July 2015 at 11:48 AM
jr786,
Since Sanders was the first Senator to spark off a semi-boycott of the Netanyahu appearance, the AIPACists and Likud supporters may have already given up on him as a "lost cause". I would be surprised if he did anything less than support the deal quite strongly. I would have to rethink my political intuition skills, such as they are.
Posted by: different clue | 15 July 2015 at 03:29 PM
IMO Iran has paid lobbyists even now in Washington though perhaps not registered under FARA!
There seem to be many Americans that travel freely to Iran and wondering if this is accurate. Many Iranian-American rug dealers make daily calls to Iran.
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 16 July 2015 at 09:42 AM